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ee of union and progress dealt primarily with resisting the territorial expansion of the balkan states at turkish expense and reducing the influence of the great powers over their nation enshrined in privileges known as capitulations 22 while the leading members of the leadership disagreed about the overall orientation ottoman foreign policy suspicion of russia s intentions toward the straits 17 sazonov letter to izvolskii 26 june 1913 avpri f 340 op 835 d 39 ii 35 36 18 anderson eastern question 227 31 barbara jelavich russia s balkan entanglements 1804 1914 cambridge england 1991 chap 5 19 rossos russia and the balkans chaps 1 and 2 20 a nekludoff diplomatic reminiscences before and during the world war 1911 1917 london 1920 11620 21 see bax ironside letter 22 to grey 24 february 1912 in british documents on the origins of the war 1898 1914 bd london 1933 9 1 no 554 and rossos russia and the balkans 87 90 22 f a k yasamee ottoman empire in decisions for war 1914 ed k wilson london 1995 229 68 81 and armenia remained strong and the turkish government tended to seek better relations with germany and austria hungary while preserving beneficial ties with great britain and france 23 the interests of the other great powers in the straits question varied great britain had been russia s traditional opponent on the problem and had long sought to keep russia bottled up in the black sea to protect british lines of communication to india but by the beginning of the twentieth century new factors were altering london s views the existence of the franco russian alliance meant that war with russia would bring war with france reducing the value of the straits since the french fleet would be able to threaten the royal navy even if the straits were bottled up increasingly sophisticated naval thinking and a strengthening position in egypt made the admiralty less worried about its ability to protect access to britain s asian empire a few members of the foreign office were already beginning at this time to link their position in persia with the russian position at constantinople but readiness to make a quid pro quo would come only once world war i had begun 24 french policymakers were more concerned at this time with turkey s financial situation and their interests in what is now syria and lebanon 25 decades of investments had given them large and often controlling stakes in a variety of ottoman agricultural and industrial ventures mining and infrastructure paris was thus very anxious to avoid offending the turkish government to the extent that its influence or return on investment was threatened especially if germany would benefit from the shift but the french also hoped that the straits would remain closed to prevent any change in the balance of naval power that would come if russia could bring its warships out of the black sea 26 france russia s ally thus proved to be a bigger obstacle than russia s old rival great britain for germany and austria hungary the ottoman empire represented a possible partner in containing russian expansion and limiting its pan slav activities since all three states stood to lose from russian success in germany s case turkey also served a colonial purpose as its dreams of an african empire faded germany invested heavily in railway projects most notably the berlin to baghdad railroad project which would serve as a means of economic penetration and of spreading german influence through the 0tto man empire as it further weakened austria hungary however felt far more ambivalent than germany did about the turks themselves vienna opposed the partition of the 0tto man empire including russia s gain of the straits while they had no foothold in the empire that would fall to them in case of its disintegration turkey s assistance against the balkan states was what interested the austrians the most 27 23 rossos russia and the balkans 13 15 24 keith neilson britain and the last tsar oxford 1995 114 15 233 284 geoffrey miller straits british policy towards the ottoman empire and the origins of the dardanelles campaign hull 1997 pt 3 25 john f v keiger france and the origins of the first world war new york 1983 74 26 l bruce fulton france and the end of the ottoman empire in the great powers and the end of the ottoman empire ed marian kent london 1984 141 71 27 f r bridge the habsburg monarchy and the ottoman empire 1900 18 in kent the great powers 31 51 82 b efore the war fearing armed conflict on the balkan peninsula during the summer of 1912 the great powers increased their pressure for an end to the italo turkish war to help turkey look less vulnerable to the balkan allies beyond these efforts sazonov sought to ward off any threat of change in control and access to constantinople and the straits along two lines first with the great powers and second with bulgaria first the russian foreign minister sought to prevent the straits from becoming a topic of discussion among the great powers simultaneously however he refused to take any step that might suggest that russia had washed its hands of interest in the fate of these turkish possessions these efforts developed most clearly in three high level meetings with the german french and british governments in july august and september 1912 in none of these meetings did sazonov raise the straits as a subject for serious discussion even though these would have been perfect opportunities for russia to have sought new declarations of support for a change in the straits regime at the same time however sazonov refused to cooperate with french suggestions that the powers declare their disinterestedness in the region he sensed and resented that the french were motivated by suspicion of russian motives and he believed it impermissible to trample upon slavic sensibilities in the region and to sacrifice russian interests there as well 28 this extended effort by sazonov to minimize discussion of the straits and constantinople does not mean however that he ignored the issue on the contrary as the threat of war on the balkan peninsula grew more serious so too did the russian fear of bulgarian action against the turkish capital this threat was enhanced ironically by the russians own actions the encouragement of a system of military alliances under their aegis among bulgaria serbia greece and montenegro which increased the chances of a victory over the ottoman empire and reduced the hesitation of those allied states to opt for war 29 adding to the irony one of the factors behind the russian support for a balkan alliance was protection of the status quo at the straits and constantinople 30 but as it grew increasingly apparent through 1912 that bulgaria posed a danger to turkish control of these areas sazonov warned the bulgarian government against capturing constantinople in may he told bulgarian leader s danev that russia could not condone any bulgarian conquests that included adrianople the last fortress city between bulgaria and constantinople or points beyond 31 during the summer sazonov cautioned the bulgarians that russia 28 see the correspondence in bd 9 1 mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia vepokhu imperializma mo moscow 1939 40 ser 2 20 1 2 and documents diplomatiques françaises 1871 1914 ddf paris 1931 34 3 3 for june september 1912 29 the russians and sazonov in particular were very aware of this possibility at the time see o beirne letter 416 to grey 14 october 1912 bd 9 1 no 193 30 on the russian role in the formation of the balkan league see rossos russia and the balkans helmreich diplomacy of the balkan wars and e c thaden russia and the balkan alliance university park pa 1965 chaps 3 and 4 31 sazonov letter 299 to nekliudov 23 may 1912 mo 20 1 no 64 and sazonov memorandum to nicholas ii 10 may 1912 mo 19 2 no 878 83 would endeavor to stop them at adrianople 32 but if they defeated the turks there and turned to constantinople russia would be obliged sazonov said to warn them off as though she had no desire to establish herself at constantinople she could not allow any other power to take possession of it 33 as long as russia was unable to control the process of change sazonov demanded that constantinople remain turkish he believed that all russia needed to do was to present an ultimatum at sofia and that would suffice to arrest the further advance of the bulgarian army 34 this overconfidence in the weight of russia s warnings is symptomatic of the larger russian delusion that they could dictate the actions of the slav peoples in the balkans much to the russians chagrin they would find that they were almost as powerless to set limits to the balkan states expansion as they were to prevent them from going to war but bulgaria entered the first balkan war well aware of russia s attitude about constantinople and the straits b ulgarians at the gates throughout the first weeks of the war and beyond the great powers searched for a way to end the balkan war as quickly as possible while keeping themselves out of the actual combat but formulating an effective policy proved more difficult that any of them had anticipated 35 sazonov s task was complicated by the need to prevent either side from gaining a victory so great that it might threaten the status quo at the straits and further destabilize the region he therefore had to prevent the bulgarian armies from seizing the turkish capital and conversely to avoid an exaggerated turkish victory over bulgaria early in the war the powers expected the balkan armies to have a difficult time against the german trained ottoman forces so the russians consented to promising turkey full control of its capital and surrounding area while the rest of its empire in europe would be subject to european control and reform and kept under the nominal suzerainty of the porte 36 the balkan allies surprising success however allowed the great powers to accept territorial changes at the expense of the ottoman empire the bulgarian advance on the chatalja lines the main defensive works before constantinople increasingly alarmed sazonov because it seemed to possess the momentum to reach all the way to the turkish capital sazonov thus sought to define and protect what he saw as russia s interests on 31 october he sent a circular to the russian representatives in the capitals of the great powers and of the new belligerents setting out the bases of russian policy russia required that if the territorial status quo could not be preserved constantinople and a region to its west defined largely by the maritsa river including the fortress city of adrianople must remain under the real sovereignty of the sultan in guaranteeing the security of constantinople and of the related european and russian interests of the first 32 nekliudov letter to sazonov 20 july 1912 mo 20 1 no 216 doulcet tels 443 and 444 to poincare 14 september 1912 ddf 3 3 no 402 33 buchanan letter 283 to grey 18 september 1912 bd 9 1 no 722 34 ibid 35 montenegro went to war on 8 october and bulgaria greece and serbia on 17 october 36 sazonov letter 671 to izvolskii 23 october 1912 avpri f 151 op 482 d 130 ii 47 50 84 order 37 this was not a new demand so sazonov expected that bulgaria would not make things difficult for itself and russia by ignoring his position to persuade the bulgarians sazonov tried two strategies first he warned them against storming the chatalja lines since that might cause riots in the capital the powers of europe most deeply invested there britain and france could thereupon turn against bulgaria leaving the latter vulnerable to intervention by austria and rumania 38 this attempt to scare the bulgarians into stopping did not work for london and paris were not so easily swayed against the bulgarians as sazonov intimated they might be 39 second with perhaps as much wishful thinking he pointed out that a failure of the siege of adrianople might seriously reduce the territorial acquisitions that the allies could receive regardless of their reaction to this sazonov stressed to the bulgarians and the great powers that there could be no misinterpretation of russia s insistence on the sultan keeping the land from the maritsa river including adrianople under his own real control 40 he personally told the bulgarian minister in st petersburg be content with san stefano bulgaria and do not enter constantinople under any circumstances because you will otherwise complicate your affairs too gravely 41 less directly he sought the cooperation of his entente partners on 31 october and 1 november requesting that they too push the bulgarian government to halt its attacks at the chatalja line or failing that not to occupy constantinople britain and france agreed that the san stefano borders had to be the basis of the future settlement 42 both however opposed pressuring bulgaria in the manner that the russians desired fearing either that an abandonment of the offensive would allow the turkish forces to regroup or that intense pressure could alienate the bulgarians from the powers of the triple entente and ease for austria a separate agreement with sofia 43 sazonov nonetheless persisted in seeking united action by the powers to halt the bulgarians he hoped not only to prevent the riots and massacres across the ottoman empire that could result from the bulgarians entry into constantinople but also to deny sofia the bargaining chip for future negotiations that possession of the city would hand it since bulgaria might retreat from constantinople only if the powers forced it to do so 44 ultimately he insisted to the british ambassador that the capital and the region around it must either remain turkish or become russian and that russia would regard any attempt made by another power to take permanent possession of them as a casus belli 45 in this way sazonov clearly indicated how vital the location was to russia the only other event that might otherwise have brought russian military intervention was an austrian attack he 37 sazonov letter 678 to izvolskii et al 31 october 1912 ibid ii 78 81 38 sazonov tel 2403 to nekliudov 31 october 1912 ibid d 3699 i 273 39 rossos russia and the balkans 88 40 sazonov tel 2403 to nekliudov 31 october 1912 41 rossos russia and the balkans 87 88 42 buchanan tel 401 to grey 1 november 1912 bd 9 2 no 85 fleuriau tel 326 to poincaré 1 november 1912 ddf 3 4 no 307 benckendorff tel 288 to sazonov 1 november 1912 krasnyi arkhiv ka 16 no 47 43 izvolskii tel 314 to sazonov 1 november 1912 ka 16 no 49 grey letter to benckendorff 1 november 1912 bd 9 2 no 92 bertie tel 189 to grey 2 november 1912 bd 9 2 no 97 44 sazonov tel 2423 to izvolskii benckendorff et al 2 november 1912 materialy po istorii franko russkikh otnoshenii za 1910 1914 g g fro moscow 1922 293 45 buchanan private telegram to grey 2 november 1912 bd 9 2 no 98 85 was absolutely opposed to the bulgarians remaining at constantinople and trying to incorporate it into some larger bulgarian state but along with this stubbornness sazonov a...