Meta tags:

Headings (most frequently used words):

climate, real, january, 2010, the, 24, thursday, monday, tuesday, 2009, divergence, really, sunday, february, 2013, july, 2011, 25, 11, november, october, blog, archive, about, me, historical, sunspot, numbers, with, poly, rss, and, uah, charts, giss, temperature, record, problem, another, inconvenient, truth, for, agw, proponents, twelve, year, global, satellite, hadcrut3, temp, trends, function, of, in, debate, more, fraudulent, censorship, at,

Text of the page (most frequently used words):
the (510), that (207), and (110), for (86), are (82), trend (65), this (50), not (44), #climate (43), year (42), with (41), they (41), their (40), period (38), enso (35), was (32), flat (32), has (31), data (31), 1998 (29), agw (28), will (28), from (28), natural (28), one (27), variability (27), there (25), real (23), temperature (23), have (23), can (23), giss (23), but (22), chart (22), what (21), 2005 (20), when (19), see (17), these (17), corrected (17), all (16), record (16), been (16), current (16), time (16), those (15), ice (15), some (14), than (14), figure (14), authors (13), where (13), even (13), like (13), point (13), global (13), easterling (13), wehner (13), hadcrut (13), coastal (13), comments (12), answer (12), ipcc (12), first (12), warming (12), elements (12), then (12), effect (12), periods (12), annual (12), cells (12), stations (12), any (11), years (11), how (11), mean (11), site (10), more (10), kind (10), why (10), also (10), argument (10), simply (10), such (10), know (10), two (10), strong (10), question (10), only (10), longer (10), about (9), posted (9), because (9), other (9), look (9), example (9), his (9), were (9), divergence (9), surface (9), cannot (9), had (9), here (9), forcing (9), slope (9), tilo (8), reber (8), used (8), still (8), them (8), skeptics (8), long (8), out (8), show (8), things (8), either (8), variation (8), signal (8), nino (8), would (8), fact (8), paper (8), cooling (8), over (7), web (7), theory (7), therefore (7), issues (7), never (7), arctic (7), between (7), case (7), same (7), examples (7), part (7), say (7), our (7), shows (7), should (7), statement (7), element (7), land (7), sea (7), areas (7), hansen (7), 2008 (6), january (6), numbers (6), posts (6), being (6), debate (6), discussion (6), while (6), second (6), post (6), allowed (6), you (6), very (6), moderator (6), well (6), accounted (6), true (6), above (6), many (6), starting (6), actually (6), before (6), get (6), makes (6), due (6), likely (6), model (6), both (6), based (6), now (6), anomaly (6), cover (6), extrapolations (6), decade (5), course (5), just (5), scientists (5), important (5), article (5), answers (5), cherry (5), picked (5), models (5), side (5), most (5), few (5), presented (5), using (5), alarmists (5), result (5), into (5), later (5), reason (5), line (5), don (5), much (5), events (5), difference (5), last (5), off (5), artifact (5), think (5), use (5), trends (5), does (5), account (5), people (5), term (5), small (5), could (5), need (5), overcome (5), uncorrected (5), sst (5), covered (5), changes (5), records (5), delta (5), 2010 (4), past (4), arguments (4), since (4), goes (4), basically (4), explain (4), own (4), make (4), error (4), give (4), sees (4), gavin (4), schmidt (4), believe (4), means (4), too (4), large (4), significant (4), reasons (4), solar (4), way (4), significance (4), positive (4), consider (4), month (4), thing (4), produce (4), output (4), looking (4), major (4), happening (4), found (4), 1977 (4), 1985 (4), happened (4), seems (4), hadcrut3v (4), ocean (4), fig (4), looks (4), claim (4), decided (4), inconvenient (4), really (4), values (4), area (4), polar (4), mask (4), charts (4), different (4), top (4), row (4), complete (3), february (3), may (3), july (3), october (3), 2009 (3), click (3), showing (3), lack (3), made (3), censored (3), doing (3), another (3), carefully (3), conclusions (3), three (3), new (3), published (3), find (3), scientific (3), defense (3), michael (3), century (3), given (3), though (3), history (3), always (3), within (3), conclusion (3), rather (3), pro (3), deal (3), objections (3), purpose (3), subject (3), again (3), similar (3), entire (3), doesn (3), research (3), influence (3), legitimate (3), below (3), expect (3), try (3), present (3), against (3), statistically (3), lines (3), shown (3), trying (3), saying (3), meaning (3), needed (3), asked (3), profound (3), seen (3), down (3), non (3), tiny (3), produced (3), hadcrut3 (3), set (3), did (3), nina (3), want (3), let (3), ended (3), identify (3), without (3), seem (3), unidentified (3), noise (3), cause (3), which (3), however (3), simulations (3), least (3), internal (3), world (3), volcanic (3), entirely (3), interest (3), little (3), evidence (3), having (3), explanation (3), possible (3), work (3), next (3), open (3), mind (3), less (3), samples (3), hardly (3), 1981 (3), 1989 (3), note (3), slightly (3), available (3), temperatures (3), exists (3), truth (3), mattered (3), mwp (3), filled (3), water (3), cool (3), svalbard (3), russian (3), russia (3), months (3), anomalies (3), poles (3), uah (3), rss (3), november (2), 2011 (2), historical (2), sunspot (2), poly (2), 2013 (2), total (2), position (2), fraudulent (2), victory (2), opposition (2), censorship (2), tuesday (2), run (2), orchestrated (2), debates (2), forgone (2), thread (2), changed (2), kinds (2), seeks (2), aspect (2), particularly (2), attack (2), author (2), scientist (2), recently (2), svensmark (2), effects (2), attacks (2), third (2), friends (2), briffa (2), mann (2), errors (2), proxy (2), reconstruction (2), cru (2), cabal (2), hearing (2), commenters (2), orthodoxy (2), relevance (2), considered (2), knows (2), happen (2), dealt (2), skeptic (2), runs (2), questions (2), fairly (2), completely (2), won (2), once (2), marked (2), discredited (2), reader (2), order (2), phase (2), expected (2), your (2), brought (2), co2 (2), words (2), certainty (2), short (2), around (2), physical (2), pdo (2), amo (2), volcanoes (2), aerosols (2), etc (2), correction (2), removed (2), thereby (2), problem (2), beginning (2), rest (2), benefit (2), support (2), start (2), 2000 (2), relevant (2), strongly (2), serve (2), choose (2), ignore (2), followed (2), earlier (2), making (2), claims (2), nothing (2), twelve (2), satellite (2), thursday (2), sensitivity (2), today (2), especially (2), trenberth (2), hand (2), energy (2), earth (2), radiative (2), who (2), clear (2), sustained (2), multi (2), embedded (2), 21st (2), system (2), presence (2), anthropogenic (2), insignificant (2), negative (2), talking (2), portion (2), must (2), turned (2), particular (2), key (2), enough (2), greenhouse (2), gas (2), needs (2), variations (2), dealing (2), expectation (2), possibility (2), clearly (2), flattened (2), chichon (2), smaller (2), warmers (2), each (2), resulting (2), fit (2), air (2), comparing (2), stronger (2), main (2), becomes (2), suppressing (2), plot (2), slight (2), check (2), 1975 (2), instead (2), sites (2), disappeared (2), disappear (2), rescue (2), noaa (2), publication (2), waiting (2), climategate (2), papers (2), reference (2), showed (2), warmer (2), decline (2), series (2), analysis (2), lia (2), monday (2), coverage (2), value (2), extrapolation (2), wonder (2), northern (2), hot (2), version (2), represented (2), across (2), far (2), exposing (2), taking (2), zero (2), ostrov (2), vize (2), island (2), change (2), ask (2), appropriate (2), away (2), extrapolating (2), interior (2), interpolations (2), coasts (2), masked (2), hottest (2), skip (2), view, profile, denver, colorado, united, states, march, june, december, blog, archive, subscribe, atom, home, older, image, read, usual, integrity, pushing, continued, rise, borderline, tried, points, meantime, inmates, dances, views, despite, serves, shield, contributers, reports, thought, special, authority, beyond, engaged, discussions, actuality, political, tool, conducts, outcome, take, pattern, moderators, articles, highlight, reinforcing, melt, 2007, supporting, near, antarctic, extent, thirty, ten, frequently, findings, injurious, contradictory, attacked, henrik, cosmic, radiation, easy, defenses, caught, blatant, acts, malfeasance, recent, thin, inadequate, sets, classic, involved, mail, scandal, causes, problems, twentieth, tree, ring, instrument, admitted, members, keith, discussed, except, defensive, vein, bands, err, approaching, limits, appear, derive, giving, fair, disagree, skeptical, filtered, civility, topic, ability, staff, venting, carry, weight, actual, known, red, meat, crowd, difficult, himself, allow, thinks, censor, whole, procedure, illusion, future, tread, full, victories, science, logic, average, answered, drama, regular, crew, supporters, frequent, attempt, hadley, unit, illicitly, control, publishers, come, surprise, thousands, insure, captured, postings, took, screen, dumps, submissions, moderation, moderated, function, presents, alarmed, arsenal, lying, eyes, type, rationalizations, forth, effort, matter, says, fall, types, knowledge, represent, straw, man, fine, behind, shorter, investigate, shortening, explained, overriding, corrections, remaining, furthermore, put, gain, powerful, bet, alarmist, misconception, able, related, product, plotted, 1999, effected, lower, cut, ninos, ninas, decide, exercises, overlook, lasted, cancels, objection, typically, asks, respect, producing, date, answering, already, rising, proves, mention, end, ends, disposed, enlarge, temp, repeat, central, jeopardized, causing, high, modeled, vary, understand, unknown, applicable, books, reduced, contrast, easily, exactly, waving, designed, foregone, summarize, tell, insist, random, person, fool, drifting, shocking, suggestion, call, themselves, added, increased, disappearing, hiding, somewhere, considering, criticisms, reasonable, longterm, forced, occurring, derived, observed, misleading, speaking, ccm, computer, program, simple, squares, seven, simulation, behavior, occurs, simulated, eruptions, widespread, thus, presumed, couple, statements, spend, lot, coupled, frankly, fail, ccms, ever, prediction, capability, validated, hanging, bars, addition, single, increasing, consequently, arrive, nearly, claimed, undefined, former, alarms, assume, continuation, cycle, continuing, stock, plays, role, niña, event, early, led, lowest, incomplete, processes, standpoint, accounts, gone, oddly, agree, word, million, dollar, right, tsi, anywhere, apparently, kevin, following, reality, superimposed, interesting, dismissing, its, importance, turn, exhibit, correct, day, number, component, might, overcoming, men, pretend, calls, doubt, minimum, strength, whereas, volcano, five, constitute, crucial, argue, somewhat, else, during, erupted, 1982, half, resulted, push, massive, quantities, confirm, assumption, flatness, amount, quote, refer, imply, choice, opposite, factor, general, community, ready, grasp, excuse, suits, closer, moment, cancel, close, unusually, 1997, niño, contributed, unusual, warmth, linear, smith, move, justified, calling, obvious, mild, noticeable, become, shortly, figures, fully, halve, justification, claiming, supposed, myself, looked, reasonably, specified, definitely, plots, generated, thompson, stored, unfortunately, through, wanted, artifacts, pronounced, influenced, feel, 1995, heart, revealed, substantial, overall, existence, concerning, globally, averaged, state, begin, blogosphere, deny, currently, oblique, concentrating, unimportance, objective, review, wish, discount, ones, hopefully, latest, planet, politicians, often, comes, voices, dissent, louder, gets, urgent, riding, david, lawrence, berkeley, national, laboratory, submitted, geophysical, letters, volunteers, questioned, dogs, progress, personal, buckets, mud, slag, gang, prevent, failing, publish, responses, quality, seriousness, applicability, criticism, sycophants, debunked, came, report, medieval, warm, quickly, figured, counterproductive, objectives, hard, stampede, population, profit, power, warning, ill, truths, achieve, goals, rode, hiders, upside, methods, torture, confession, gift, coffers, grants, described, farming, greenland, grape, growing, froze, thames, reconstructions, overlapping, 1000, none, declared, peeeerrrr, rrreeevied, journals, figments, imagination, proponents, extrapolated, regardless, extrapolate, cell, assign, consistent, creating, obviously, leads, pole, compared, big, individual, comparison, canada, alaska, north, american, got, cooler, warmed, considerably, gives, immediately, apparent, cleared, globe, removing, hatch, heating, source, thermometers, immediate, thermometer, everything, compare, differences, monthly, larger, 10c, partial, opposed, supply, heat, safely, huge, mostly, further, inland, begins, perfectly, yet, hotter, reaching, valid, undergo, magnitude, uses, simulate, enhancements, retain, selected, sample, moths, exceptional, map, 156, barrow, eureka, 104, gmo, kanin, nos, hadsst2, occasionally, independent, pops, group, directly, colored, maximum, going, good, safe, interpolation, compares, allowing, considers, method, produces, accurate, explains, essential, nearest, created, applies, deletes, readings, provide, graph, after, missing, boxes, expand, connection, james, diverges, legitimacy, realclimate, specific, external, comment, sunday, nice, place, sidebar,

Text of the page (random words):
ered by extrapolations from land for that year this means that when the area is cover with ice or with water or with part ice part water it will have it s anomaly extrapolated from land regardless hadcrut on the other hand does not extrapolate their coverage but they will use sst values for a cell when sst values are available for part of the year if the area is covered with ice for the entire year hadcrut will not assign it a value therefore we get polar areas that are covered by extrapolation by giss and not covered at all by hadcrut when we look at the hadsst2 record we see that the cool cells that show up above svalbard in 2005 are consistent with the numbers in that record and these then go into creating the sea surface portion of the hadcrut3 temperature record so obviously how cells are filled with data can have a profound effect on the anomaly value that those cells have this leads one to wonder if extrapolations at the pole are legitimate i decided to look at some of the northern russian stations at the giss site that show up as being so hot in the 2005 version of the giss chart when compared with the 1998 version of the chart i found that those big changes are in fact represented in the individual records especially for the coastal stations here are three of them kanin nos 68 7 n 43 3 e 1998 annual mean 3 39 2005 annual mean 0 60 1998 2005 delta 3 99 c ostrov vize 79 5 n 77 0 e 1998 annual mean 14 99 2005 annual mean 10 79 1998 2005 delta 4 2 c gmo im e k f 77 7 n 104 3 e 1998 annual mean 15 96 2005 annual mean 12 67 1998 2005 delta 3 29 c for comparison let s look across the arctic ocean and see what was happening in canada and alaska at the same time eureka n w t 80 0 n 85 9 w 1998 annual mean 17 38 2005 annual mean 17 34 1998 2005 delta 0 04 c barrow ak 71 3 n 156 8 w 1998 annual mean 8 80 2005 annual mean 10 44 1998 2005 delta 1 64 c so it seems that the north american side of the arctic changed little or even got cooler between 98 and 05 the russian side warmed considerably why is that i think that this ice cover map gives us the answer as is immediately apparent the coastal ice cleared out far earlier in 2005 in northern russia than it did in 1998 this is even though the rest of the globe was slightly warmer in 1998 than in 2005 when dealing with coastal stations removing the ice and exposing the water is like taking the hatch off a heating source for the coastal thermometers for stations that are in areas where the temperature is well below zero exposing the immediate area of that thermometer to a surface that is above zero changes everything looking at ostrov vize we see that it is a small island and therefore even more subject to changes in coastal sea ice and when we compare 1998 months on this island with 2005 months we can see that there are differences in some of the monthly means that are larger than 10c even a partial ice cover as opposed to a complete ice cover will supply the stations with more heat so i think that we can safely say that the huge change in the anomalies of russian coastal stations is mostly due to coastal sea ice changes in fact if we look at stations further inland in russia the coastal effect begins to decline with this in mind we need to ask if the giss extrapolations of land based stations particularly coastal stations to the poles is appropriate the answer would seem to be that it is not and the svalbard case makes this perfectly clear there we had a case where the sst anomaly was actually cool and yet the land based extrapolation actually turned those sea based cells more than 3c hotter reaching across the arctic ocean with temperatures that are the result of a coastal sea ice effect cannot give valid answers for what the temperature anomalies away from those coastal stations should be in fact taking the variation that is represented by those coastal stations and extrapolating into the interior of russia is also not appropriate because the interior areas did not undergo the magnitude of temperature change of the coastal stations looking at the sst temperature anomalies that noaa uses for 1998 and 2005 it again looks like nothing exceptional was happening in the arctic note the chart will not retain the months that i selected so use your own sample moths and they will plot it seems from this analysis that giss polar extrapolations and interpolations are likely to simulate large variations away from the arctic coasts that are really only present as changes at the arctic coasts and the giss divergence from hadcrut as well as from uah and rss are likely to be errors instead of enhancements posted by tilo reber at 6 47 pm 2 comments monday january 11 2010 another inconvenient truth for agw proponents when the ipcc came out with it s first report it presented a proxy reconstruction of past temperatures that showed the climate of the medieval warm period to be warmer than today as they quickly figured out they had presented a chart that was counterproductive to their objectives it s hard to stampede the population of the earth for un profit and power when the thing that you are warning about has happened so recently to no ill effect this was one of the first inconvenient truths that the ipcc need to disappear in order to achieve their goals the people who rode to their rescue were michael mann and many of the climategate decline hiders from the cru these people found that data series could be cherry picked data series could be used upside down and analysis methods could be used to torture the data into confession they presented their first major gift to the ipcc they disappeared the mwp and they filled their own coffers with research grants it no longer mattered that history described farming in greenland grape growing where it had not happened before or since an lia that froze the thames that other reconstructions from all over the world showed a major mwp overlapping at 1000 ad none of it mattered the ipcc declared that peeeerrrr rrreeevied papers published in major scientific journals had made the mwp and the lia just figments of our imagination in the period since then there have been many inconvenient truth that needed to be discredited for the benefit of the ipcc and there have always been volunteers if a scientist published a paper that questioned some aspect of the ipcc orthodoxy the attack dogs from web sites like real climate open mind and climate progress were waiting with personal attacks and buckets of mud to slag off the work the climategate gang was waiting to prevent the publication of such papers or failing that to publish negative responses to the work the quality seriousness or scientific applicability of the criticism never really mattered what was important was that there was a reference available that allowed the agw sycophants to claim oh that paper has been debunked the latest inconvenient truth that needs to be disappeared is the 12 year trend of no warming in the planet s surface temperature the ipcc and the politicians are hearing about this often now and they don t like it with each year that comes and goes with the trend still flat the voices of agw dissent get louder and the need to disappear it gets more urgent for the agw cabal the evidence for this lack of warming is presented in the post below once again we have people riding to the rescue of the ipcc in this case those people are david easterling of noaa and michael wehner of the lawrence berkeley national laboratory their paper has been submitted to geophysical research letters for publication the objective of this post is to review some of the reasons that these authors wish to discount the current flat temperature trend given that their objections are very similar to ones that can be found on many of the agw support web sites the post will hopefully answer some of those issues as well before i begin on the paper i should note that there are many in the blogosphere that even deny that a flat trend currently exists the authors only make this claim in an oblique way concentrating instead on what they consider to be the unimportance of the trend easterling and wehner state we show that the climate over the 21st century can and likely will produce periods of a decade or two where the globally averaged surface air temperature shows no trend or even slight cooling in the presence of longer term warming they then try to show the existence of such periods by using both surface temperature data and model output first concerning the surface temperature they make this claim however if we fit a trend line to the same annual global land ocean temperatures for the 1977 1985 period or the 1981 1989 period we also get no trend even though these periods are embedded in the 1975 2008 period showing a substantial overall warming first note that both of their periods are not the decade or two long that they claim rather they are both only 9 years long i decided to plot these supposed flat trends for myself to see how they looked the first period 1977 1985 see figure 1 was reasonably flat but slightly positive the second period 1981 1989 see figure 2 was hardly flat at all and the part of their statement that specified or even slight cooling was definitely not to be seen the data that i used for my check plots was hadcrut3v as it happened i also had an enso corrected set of hadcrut3v data available this data set was generated for this paper by d thompson et al and it was stored on the real climate web site unfortunately it only runs through may 2008 but it will still serve our purpose i wanted to see if either of these periods from easterling and wehner were flat as a result of being artifacts of enso as we can see the first period in figure 1 was slightly flattened by enso without enso the trend becomes more pronounced but the second period was strongly influenced by enso as can be seen in figure 2 i decided to get a feel of what the trend for that period was and so i produced a 20 year chart from 1975 to 1995 this period is in the heart of the time where most warmers believe that the agw signal was clearly revealed easterling wehner fig 1 easterling wehner fig 2 easterling wehner fig 3 as we can see when comparing the slope numbers on the chart for figures one and three the enso corrected data is one third of the longer trend s uncorrected data and it is fully one halve of the enso corrected longer trend this hardly seems to me to be a justification for claiming that the first period has no trend then comparing figure 2 to figure 3 it looks like the enso corrected data from figure 2 actually shows a stronger trend than the main trend in figure 2 it is stronger than either the enso corrected or uncorrected trends of the longer period even the uncorrected data from figure 2 has 50 of the slope of the long term uncorrected trend i hardly think that easterling and wehner are justified in calling the 1981 1989 period trend less also it becomes obvious that enso had a mild but noticeable effect on suppressing the trend for the first period and a strong effect on suppressing the trend in the second period this will become important shortly easterling wehner fig 4 we now move on to figure 4 which has the most current time period also a flat trend what do easterling and wehner have to say about the current flat trend it is true that if we fit a linear trend line to the annual global land ocean surface air temperature smith et al 2005 shown in figure 1 for the period 1998 to 2008 there is no real trend and the unusually strong 1997 1998 el niño contributed to unusual warmth in the global temperature for 1998 at the start of this period resulting in only a small statistically insignificant positive trend hadcrut3v shows no trend at all hadcrut3v enso corrected shows a tiny amount of warming much smaller than either of the 9 year samples that the authors give and the difference between the enso corrected data and the non corrected data is actually much smaller than it is in either of the authors samples the above quote where they refer to the 1998 starting point would seem to imply that the current flat trend is at least in part an artifact of enso and the choice of an enso starting point but figure 4 shows that just the opposite is true enso is less of a factor than it is for their examples in fact the difference between the enso corrected data and the non enso corrected data is tiny the general community of warmers are ready to grasp the excuse of the 1998 el nino being the cause of the 12 year flat trend because it suits their purpose if they would look closer for only one moment they would see that the 1998 el nino was followed only one month later by a 25 month la nina the effect of these two on the slope of the trend line is basically to cancel each other out that is why the enso corrected and uncorrected trend lines are so close still with all of this discussion one could argue that the 1977 1985 period is somewhat flattened and that enso does not account for it but what else happened during this period well for one el chichon erupted in 1982 this is in the second half of the period and therefore any cooling that resulted would push down the slope of the trend the massive quantities of volcanic aerosols most likely had a profound effect on the climate for the next 2 or 3 years and one look at figure 1 for that period of time seems to confirm that assumption so the flatness of the 1977 1985 period is most likely an artifact of el chichon so we now have five reasons why the easterling and wehner examples do not constitute samples of the same kind of thing happening before within the crucial signal phase for agw theory a the current 12 year flat period is longer than their 9 year examples b the current 12 year flat trend has less trend than their 9 year examples c the current 12 year flat trend is not an enso artifact like one of their 9 year examples d the current 12 year flat trend is not a volcano artifact like the other of their 9 year examples e the current 12 year flat trend is open ended whereas their 9 year trends are ended the last example is very important in dealing with the 12 year flat trend one of the reasons for dismissing its importance is the expectation that it will not turn into a 20 or 30 year flat trend the authors exhibit this expectation based on their forgone conclusion that agw theory is correct and that agw forcing will overcome the flat trend any day now they don t consider the possibility of a small number for climate sensitivity and they don t consider the possibility of a long term component of natural variability that might be overcoming any agw signal these men clearly do not have an open mind on the agw question so how can they pretend to deal fairly with a subject that calls in doubt agw or at a minimum the strength of agw the next statement by easterling and wehner makes the discussion more interesting the reality of the climate system is that due to natural climate variabil...