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s 1st in pitching 3rd in fielding 4th in hitting 3 red sox 7th in pitching 4th in fielding 1st in hitting 4 blue jays 5th in pitching 5th in fielding 5th in hitting 5 nationals 4th in pitching 9th in fielding 6th in hitting 6 mets 2nd in pitching 10th in fielding 9th in hitting 7 giants 6th in pitching 2nd in fielding 10th in hitting 8 indians 10th in pitching 6th in fielding 3rd in hitting 9 rangers 8th in pitching 7th in fielding 7th in hitting 10 orioles 9th in pitching 8th in fielding 8th in hitting click here for the companion piece with player level detail for every team at every position https replacementlevel wordpress com 2016 10 03 forecasting october with playoff runs feed 2 replacementlevel the gift of papi and other red sox tales https replacementlevel wordpress com 2016 08 30 the gift of papi and other red sox tales https replacementlevel wordpress com 2016 08 30 the gift of papi and other red sox tales respond tue 30 aug 2016 01 01 50 0000 http replacementlevel wordpress com p 3622 continue reading here s one i wrote for the forecaster a few weeks ago at the bottom of the page you can follow links to the rest of my work for the paper this summer __________________________________________________ think about the best christmas present you ve ever opened it must have brought you joy it probably entertained you it might have made you the envy of your friends and family but how long did it last maybe it was a treasured stuffed animal the kind that lingers in your bedroom for a few years after your other toys were ready for a trip to goodwill seven years maybe eight maybe it was a bicycle one that made you a little faster and a little more stylish than your friends and took you on countless adventures you know until you outgrew it and it started gathering dust in the garage maybe it was technology a video game console or an ipod or a tablet all great gifts but those are planned to be obsolescent after three to five years if you kept if for six you probably felt a little embarrassed when your friends saw you playing with it after they had moved on to the newest model on january 22 2003 red sox nation opened a gift that might not have made them jump around the room hugging everyone when a little known twins first baseman named david ortiz was acquired as a free agent but 14 seasons later big papi has given red sox fans all the joy of a cuddly teddy bear all the adventure of a new bike and all the entertainment of an xbox and somehow he never got old ortiz is not only a gift himself but a spectacular giver of gifts on july 23 2003 for instance a relatively svelte papi with more hair on his head and less on his face hit the first walkoff hit of his red sox career a two out pinch hit double off the yankees armando benitez that pulled the red sox to within 2 5 games of first place after years looking up at the yankees in the standings ortiz gave us the gift of hope on october 8 2004 after two walkoff hits in the rollercoaster regular season papi made his presence felt for real with perhaps his most memorable moment a walkoff two run home run off the angels jarrod washburn in the 10th inning of game 3 of the american league division series ortiz delivered boston s first playoff series win of the new millennium the gift of bliss a week later in games 4 and 5 of the american league championship series ortiz delivered consecutive walkoff hits first a 12th inning homer off paul quantrill to avoid a sweep then a 14th inning single off esteban loiaza that pushed the series back to new york is there a greater gift than the promise of more baseball in august and september 2005 ortiz hit three go ahead ninth inning home runs and a walkoff single staving off a late season comeback by the yankees and preserving what would turn out to be a first place tie a boston institution and a must watch late inning at bat by this point ortiz helped boston stave off another collapse and gave the gift of dignity papi s lone walkoff in 2007 came on september 12 against the devil rays turning a deficit into a victory and maintaining a five game lead in the division boston would hold on to that lead and win a second title in four years giving a long downtrodden city the rare gift of superiority after battling with wrist injuries and slumping through much of 2008 and 2009 and even into 2010 ortiz came back with a vengeance in 2011 batting 309 with 32 home runs and looking like the superstar who had captivated boston for most of the previous decade he stepped it up again in 2012 batting 318 with 23 homers and a 415 on base percentage giving the gift of recaptured youth in 2013 boston was suffering after the marathon attacks ortiz delivered a rousing speech peppered with choice words assuring the people of boston that the red sox would continue to be a symbol of the city s resilience and resolve throughout another championship run ortiz delivered several speeches building on the first one giving boston the gift of recovery his grand slam into the bullpen in that same year s alcs also gave us the gift of an unforgettable image bullpen cop steve horgan s jubilantly raised arms juxtaposed against torii hunter s desperately flipped legs prior to the 2016 season ortiz announced that he would retire at year end committing to one last season long grind just another year of smiles and memories would have been a blessing to fans but big papi doesn t settle he put together one of the best first half batting lines any of us has ever seen batting 322 with 22 home runs and a ludicrous 34 doubles he s re imagining what a 40 year old baseball player can accomplish playing with youthful joy and skill reminiscent of his prime the red sox are contenders again full of power and speed and youth and promise this fall red sox fans will say goodbye to david ortiz after 14 legendary seasons the gift of papi _______________________________________________________ on mookie betts s mvp credentials on the 2016 al east division race on hanley ramirez putting it together in boston on the addition of drew pomeranz and brad ziegler on betts bogaerts and bradley on the pitcher clay buchholz once was https replacementlevel wordpress com 2016 08 30 the gift of papi and other red sox tales feed 0 replacementlevel awards preview https replacementlevel wordpress com 2016 08 29 awards preview https replacementlevel wordpress com 2016 08 29 awards preview comments mon 29 aug 2016 02 09 22 0000 http replacementlevel wordpress com p 3540 continue reading so august is almost over and unless you re a loyal reader of the forecaster or usa today sports weekly you haven t read anything i ve written about baseball in most of a baseball season rather than make excuses i ll offer a cursory apology and attempt to write what will inevitably be an overlong piece on who should and maybe who will win the mvp and cy young awards in each league all four races are fascinating at this point since the only player who seemed destined to run away with one or two clayton kershaw decided it was not in his best interest to play baseball all summer through back and shoulder pain that leaves everything wide open with a month of games to go where should we begin nl mvp i m starting here only because i want to finish with the al cy young the most unpredictable of the awards there are two candidates here if you care at all about defense and three if you re a voting member of the bbwaa chicago s kris bryant has done everything this year 303 batting average walks in 10 8 of his pas 35 home runs eight stolen bases and great defense mostly at third base he plays for the best team in baseball in a big city is uncomfortably attractive and has a bright future ahead of him if there are any knocks against him his strikeout rate 22 might be one and the fact that the cubs would probably still be the best team in baseball without him might be another los angeles s corey seager is similarly well rounded 322 batting average 23 homers and even better defense at an even more important position shortstop his dodgers are poised to run away with the nl west after trailing the rival giants for most of the year and he s clearly the team s best player justin turner may be every bit the sidekick that anthony rizzo is but try to sell that to a voter seager doesn t have bryant s walk rate 7 8 or his speed 1 steal and the rookie of the year award he should win unanimously might distract some voters from the fact that he s been nearly bryant s equal so at the moment he has to be the runner up washington s daniel murphy has a compelling narrative to match his numbers after crushing homers for the mets last october he signed with the rival nationals and turned them around from an underachieving read managed by matt williams team to run away division winners his 346 average could win the batting title and he s added 25 home runs but if the voters have noticed his still dismal second base defense he should get plenty of third and fourth place votes and very few in the top two slots nolan arenado has 34 homers and a bunch of rbiz and makes highlight reel plays at third but still doesn t get on base like the guys above rizzo could show up on the voters radar by year end but it s hard to imagine anyone else entering the conversation unless the writers appreciate what brandon crawford has done with his glove should win bryant will win bryant al mvp this one s a slightly deeper field with at least five legitimate contenders we ll start with the guy who always deserves the award mike trout is hitting 312 432 548 that s tied for the best obp of his career and his 21 steals are his best since 2013 both keepers of war have him well ahead of the pack the only strikes against him are the awful angels team that employs him and the writers boredom at watching him dominate the game like this year in and year out jose altuve is batting 356 while batting average doesn t say a lot about value the fact that anyone can still do that with teams employing shifts that turn well placed rockets into outs and relievers throwing 99 with nasty sliders says a lot about altuve s talent altuve s 26 steals are also pretty impressive but i m more drawn to his 20 home runs the man weighs 71 pounds he stands on a pink dora the explorer stool to wash his hands he has a better slugging percentage than anyone in baseball except david ortiz and manny machado if the astros had won as many games as their talent suggests they should this award would be his to lose mookie betts is not much bigger than altuve and his next home run will be his 30th he s hitting 320 with 21 steals and excellent rightfield defense and unlike the gents above he s playing for a team that would make the playoffs if the season ended today in a recent stretch in which the red sox won six straight games betts drove in the go ahead run in three of them and scored it in a fourth that s called an mvp narrative speaking of mvp narratives josh donaldson hit 297 371 568 last season heating up in august as the blue jays overtook the yankees and ran away with the al east title in 2016 donaldson is hitting 290 403 557 or at least that s what his numbers were before he hit three home runs today in yet another come from behind win a run that has overtaken the orioles and is helping toronto fend off the red sox for another al east title he s fourth in fwar as i write this he ll be very close to if not in first when we wake up tomorrow manny machado is the one great player on a strangely overachieving baltimore team where have i heard that before his 31 homers top any american leaguer named above he s batting 306 and he s maybe the best defensive infielder in the american league at least while andrelton simmons gets his groove back is he really going to finish fifth in this race david ortiz has hit as well as trout and evan longoria and francisco lindor are playing well enough to be in striking distance of the leaders if they played in the nl this one s too tough to call right now but i ll go with should win trout will win altuve nl cy young clayton kershaw who hasn t pitched since june 26 has still been the most valuable pitcher in the national league sort nl pitchers by war on fangraphs though and his 5 5 won t even show up though despite leading noah syndergaard by a tenth of a win kershaw doesn t show up on any leaderboard since his 121 innings pitched don t qualify him for the era title and even if he does return in september as planned that s likely to hold true it s as if his 1 79 era 1 67 fip and 16 1 k bb ratio never happened syndergaard s 10 68 k 9 rate is nearly the equal of kershaw and his 2 55 era and 2 31 fip are spread over 155 innings so his candidacy may be stronger than kershaw s but he also lags the innings leaders by 25 so he might not be the favorite either jose fernandez has an insane 213 strikeouts in 148 2 3 innings his 2 23 fip leads all qualified pitchers but his 2 91 era might not impress voters enough to overlook the starts he missed earlier in the season madison bumgarner has lived in kershaw s shadow his whole career a lesser lefty in the same divison until september turns to october and the dodgers turn into 25 pumpkins while the giants ride bum to even year glory while he s shown little of kershaw s effectiveness this year 3 22 fip his 2 44 era in 180 2 3 innings might win him his first cy young the only pitcher with more innings than bumgarner in 2016 is washington s max scherzer with 182 his 227 strikeouts also lead the league and if not for early season home run problems his 2 92 era might be in bum s league too jake arrieta leads the league with 16 wins and has a 2 62 era teammate kyle hendricks leads qualifiers with a 2 19 era johnny cueto and jon lester are each 14 4 with eras under 3 and could contend for the award with a few dominant starts in september unless kershaw pitches like kershaw four or five more times this year eight or nine pitchers could look indistinguishable at year end so umm i guess should win scherzer will win bumgarner al cy young for way too long cy young awards were determined by wins as if pitchers could influence their teams abilities to score runs for the last decade run prevention has been the top factor in choosing a winner the more we learn about baseball the more we understand that pitchers don t have a lot of control over what happens when the ball is put in play against them but other than the occasional nod to a massive strikeout count fip doesn t seem to count much for voters at this point with this in mind it should be easy to predict this year s al cy young winner the guy who s been the best at keeping runs off the board so that would be cole hamels hamels s 2 67 era leads the al but he s walked a hideous 3 25 batters per nine innings he trails the innings pitched leaders by more than a start and the strikeout leaders by double digits and his 3 86 fip is tied for 17th among al qualifiers measured by the outcomes most within his control hamels c...