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ukrainian eu and nato membership ukrainian membership in eu and nato is still a point of interest in the media especially amidst an active invasion in ukraine several articles posit that an acceptance of ukraine if it occurs at all is in the very distant future especially considering the presence of russian troops others highlight ukraine s application as a forced response to russian assistance in donetsk and luhansk and caution that georgia and moldova may be likely for eu candidate status as well overall there is a shared opinion that ukrainian membership in eu and nato is not out of the question but has been made significantly more complex with current russian activity in ukraine 10 invasion of ukraine responses to western sanctions numerous articles in the russian press discuss the recent sanctions imposed on russia and largely dismiss the significance of their long term impact on russian society stating that they are more damaging to the west media commentators even welcome the challenge stating that such independence will fix issues of russia s import dependence and brain drain additionally the russian media analyze the challenges that the imposed sanctions will cause for specific russian industry such as shipbuilding and aviation capabilities and technology and computer chip development 11 invasion of ukraine russia s future in the new order several articles focus on how russia and its role in the world will change in the aftermath of the invasion of ukraine these articles suggest that sanctions will cause some pain but the sacrifice will be worthwhile to achieve the goal of ending the threat posed by an anti russian ukraine and restoring russia s greatness and sovereignty the possibility of increasing internal repression to ensure national unity is also discussed in a positive light 12 invasion of ukraine role of neighboring states states in the immediate vicinity of ukraine are seen as potentially vital interlocutors in both the positive and negative sense for several russian commentators poland and the wider east central european nato member states are viewed as having taken a turn towards a decisive rearmament and preparation for future conflict meanwhile belarus holds its position as a key russian ally underlining its important role for moscow as a constituent part of the russian belarusian union state and very likely a further consolidation of de facto russian control over more elements of belarus statehood and independence 13 invasion of ukraine turkey s position russian commentators remain concerned about turkey s role in the russo ukrainian war and the geopolitical fallout from the conflict perspectives vary from those who note turkey s unwillingness to go along with the full spectrum of sanctions proposed by european and north american states to others who reiterate the concern about the longer term designs of turkey s leadership in the broader black sea eastern mediterranean and even central asian states observers are particularly wary of turkey s naval presence which for some is described as a genuine threat to russia s black sea fleet alongside turkey s ability to block passage through the straits the growing role of turkey s bayraktar tb2 combat drones also add impetus to commentator concerns 14 invasion of ukraine the biolabs conspiracy several articles once again raise the conspiracy theory about the role of us dtra reference labs in the former soviet union states but this time in ukraine referencing recent coverage in the uk newspaper expose in an article in sovetskaya rossia valentin kasatonov argues that us military biolabs in ukraine are the reasons for russia s special military operation in ukraine in topwar ru yevgeniy fedorov provides more conspiracy theories that the labs are a part of growing nato infrastructure in ukraine 15 china s geopolitical position russian commentators have noted the parallels between russia s ongoing intervention into ukraine and the west s reaction and china s presumed geopolitical designs for taiwan some argue that while such parallels exist they do not necessarily mean that china intends to support russia s goals in ukraine indeed they argue that it is possible that this could be a major test of the strength of the russian chinese relationship at the highest levels others are more sanguine about the relationship and argue that this provides a potential test case for a future chinese effort to retake taiwan 16 russia nicaragua relations although most commentary in russia remains focused on events in eurasia and eastern europe some look to other parts of the world as a means of shoring up the global picture of russia s alliances and international relationships an article in nvo looks to the political regime in nicaragua it argues that there is a friendly face in this central american country and that russia can use it as something with which to respond to us pressure in europe by further improving relations with this soft underbelly of the united states 17 information and hybrid warfare several articles discuss how russians understand the us nato approaches to information warfare and hybrid warfare an article by aleksandr bartosh focuses on what he explains is a hybrid warfare in us and nato strategies an article in krasnaya zvezda focuses on the western concept of cognitive warfare in an article in voenno promyshlennyi kur er vpk sergey korotkov argues that the heat of information hybrid war against russia has reached a critical point in another vpk article leontiy shevtsov analyzes what he calls us and nato information warfare operations 18 shortcomings of the us military one article responds to us navy chief of staff michael gilday s recent comments that the navy needs a fleet of more than 500 ships to meet its commitments in the forthcoming national defense strategy noting that us shipbuilding capacity will be a major obstacle to reaching that goal a second article examines the evolution of us aircraft carriers and argues that the capabilities of current air wing configurations to counter an enemy are significantly lower than they were in the 1970s and 1980s a third article examines us missile and air defense capabilities arguing that capabilities were inefficiently developed due to us overconfidence in its pilots and aircraft 19 us and european military capabilities three articles discuss developments of specific us and european capabilities and systems one article discusses the us navy s public launch of its snakehead underwater drone which apparently is being created in analogue to the russian poseidon submarine platform a second article discusses the us space force s deep space advanced radar capability darc project which will allow the delivery of accurate strikes against enemy satellites and will also complete the formation of a unified system for coordinating the actions of the us armed forces around the planet a third article discusses the eurodrone project between germany france italy and spain share this share on x opens in new window x share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on reddit opens in new window reddit email a link to a friend opens in new window email print opens in new window print share on linkedin opens in new window linkedin share on telegram opens in new window telegram share on whatsapp opens in new window whatsapp more share on tumblr opens in new window tumblr share on pinterest opens in new window pinterest like loading posted in media analysis tagged media analysis nato nuclear weapons ukraine invasion 1 comment march 9 2022 by dmitry gorenburg upcoming panel russia s war on ukraine i m going to be participating in the following panel tomorrow great lineup encourage those interested to sign up share this share on x opens in new window x share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on reddit opens in new window reddit email a link to a friend opens in new window email print opens in new window print share on linkedin opens in new window linkedin share on telegram opens in new window telegram share on whatsapp opens in new window whatsapp more share on tumblr opens in new window tumblr share on pinterest opens in new window pinterest like loading posted in security issues ukrainian military 3 comments march 9 2022 by dmitry gorenburg putin invades ukraine regional fallout yesterday together with pavel baev i participated in a marshall center panel on the regional fallout of the russian invasion of ukraine my colleague graeme herd put together the following summary of the discussion this is a summary of the discussion at the latest workshop of the current series of online russia seminar series rss webinars held on march 8 2022 by the george c marshall european center for security studies gcmc in garmisch partenkirchen germany the summary reflects the overall tenor of the discussion and no specific element necessarily should be presumed to be the view of either of the participants context russia s invasion of ukraine has had a devastating impact on humanitarian conditions within ukraine itself critical national infrastructure in ukraine is under attack ukraine s transport system hospitals and communication networks are being degraded the unhcr reports that over 2 million ukrainians mainly women and children have become refugees in neighboring countries particularly poland at the same time russian military advances in ukraine appear to have stalled in most operational theatres explanations for this unexpected outcome include logistical difficulties poor planning long and vulnerable supply lines and an inability to execute combined arms warfare effectively in places where russia has taken territory a hostile civil population protests in the rear even in russian speaking regions such as kherson can captured territory be held however the picture is fluid and russia is not yet fully committed while russia will seek to bombard the pivots and hubs used to supply military materiel through poland and romania its usable precision guided weapon stockpile for this special military operation is fast depleting though reserves are available for operations against nato ukraine is able to create reserve battalions around lviv and receive air defense and anti tank capabilities poland has offered to hand over its entire inventory of 23 mig 29 fighter aircraft to the us at ramstein air base in germany for potential transfer to ukraine pending a nato decision these combat aircraft can be flown by ukrainian pilots romania slovakia and hungary also have mig 29s in their inventories and some or all of these could also be provided to ukraine russia does not have the troop to task ratio to occupy an unwilling ukraine and ukrainian resistance is growing with the calculation in kyiv that any deal made today will not be as good as the one made a week from now this deadlock is dangerous as putin needs a special military operation victory to support his everything going according to plan narrative thus if victory is not possible and defeat is not an option if the choice is between bloody debilitating occupation or withdrawal then putin may seek to escalate by opening new fronts to present the russian public with distracting mini breakthroughs and victories in the wider region short term risks in the black sea region appears highest longer term risks include disruptions to energy and food exports from russia and ukraine and conflicts around exclusive economic zones in the black sea for example as borders are redrawn but not recognized this summary identifies short and longer term spillover risks in both regions black sea region had the special military operation actually gone to plan kyiv would have fallen within 2 4 days and in a best case scenario from a russian perspective resistance would implode and ukraine suffer sullen occupation at this point the risks of spillover to moldova and georgia would have been much higher the ideological narrative constructed by putin around slavic unity and regathering ancient russian lands may have included transnistria south ossetia and abkhazia if not then this would have suggested eu membership was off the cards for both states and imposed neutrality demilitarization would have been attempted by russia however without first capturing odesa still possible through a combined air assault and amphibious landing operation and finding troops to occupy ukraine in the context of a hostile and debilitating insurgency military operations into moldova do not appear viable transnistrian forces themselves have no offensive capability and rail links to odesa region from tiraspol are cut thus while in moldova pro russian parties and opposition groups in the breakaway dniester region and the pro russian gagauzia oppose eu accession russia aggression in ukraine propels the majority of the society to support this westward economic and normative reorientation as is the case in georgia however the seizure of georgian territory is possible russia s black sea fleet has been remarkably passive and inactive and still has the reserves and capacity to act the seizure of poti region in georgia is a possibility supported by chechen forces formally subordinated to russia s rosgvardia national guard but actually under the control of ramzan kadyrov if putin s power weakens kadyrov may also plan to act more autonomously into the pankisi gorge even if in the name of putinism and justified with reference to russian national goals in such circumstances azerbaijan might look to complete unfinished business towards nagorno karabakh in georgia itself the russian invasion of ukraine further polarizes society there is pressure on georgian prime minister irakli gharibashvili and georgia dream party who have adopted a neutral policy towards russia neutrality translates into a policy of not supporting international sanctions and keeping georgia s air space open to russian aircraft since 24 february opposition rallies in tbilisi have protested daily against the russian invasion outside the georgian parliament demanding 1 a visa regime with russia 2 banning russian media propaganda outlets in georgia and 3 closing georgia s airspace to russia the role of turkey is pivotal turkey attempts to avoid alienating russia by keeping its air space open to russian commercial flights and not applying sanctions as a result turkey like georgia is not included on the russian list of hostile states however turkey does send effective military aid drones to ukraine turkey citing article 19 of the montreux convention has closed the entrance to the black sea to the navies of the parties to the conflict with its sea bridge unable to function russia is forced to resupply syria using a more expensive and more limited air bridge this in turn weakens russia s presence in syria relative to turkey s at the same time the us and nato face a difficult choice regarding the sending of combat ships into the black sea in support of bulgaria and romania turkey attempts to ...