Meta tags:
description=Looking askance at reality;

Headings (most frequently used words):

the, to, decision, sideways, view, archives, elsewhere, on, internet, search, looking, askance, at, reality, posts, navigation, self, driving, car, bets, three, reasons, cooperate, theory, and, dynamic, inconsistency, what, is, causality, an, evidential, theorist, edt, with, updating, double, counts, secure, homes, for, digital, people, improving, capital, gains, taxes, demand, offsetting, distributed, public, goods, provision, hedonic, asymmetries,

Text of the page (most frequently used words):
the (18), and (12), #decision (11), more (10), for (9), july (9), this (8), comment (7), 2018 (7), 2021 (7), good (7), theory (7), october (6), 2019 (6), 2022 (6), public (6), goods (6), people (6), that (6), comments (5), view (5), like (5), think (5), digital (5), edt (5), with (5), bets (5), sideways (4), control (4), 2016 (4), december (4), september (4), 2020 (4), seems (4), they (4), are (4), then (4), but (4), making (4), updating (4), what (4), causality (4), evidential (4), three (4), reasons (4), cooperate (4), self (4), driving (4), have (3), blog (3), reciprocity (3), 2017 (3), march (3), 2023 (3), hedonic (3), asymmetries (3), really (3), get (3), don (3), some (3), can (3), distributed (3), provision (3), all (3), demand (3), offsetting (3), because (3), over (3), improving (3), capital (3), gains (3), taxes (3), leave (3), could (3), secure (3), homes (3), double (3), counts (3), about (3), bet (3), theorist (3), correlation (3), dynamic (3), inconsistency (3), car (3), website (2), required (2), bar (2), content (2), log (2), sign (2), subscribed (2), subscribe (2), wordpress (2), com (2), search (2), february (2), may (2), june (2), august (2), january (2), april (2), posts (2), creating (2), bored (2), sense (2), most (2), from (2), wikipedia (2), such (2), being (2), factory (2), farmed (2), eggs (2), part (2), even (2), not (2), code (2), post (2), arguments (2), one (2), would (2), their (2), calculator (2), answer (2), decisions (2), when (2), after (2), observing (2), looking (2), askance (2), reality (2), name, email, write, loading, collapse, manage, subscriptions, site, reader, report, privacy, already, account, now, join, 109, other, subscribers, create, twitter, commitments, personal, homepage, elsewhere, internet, november, archives, older, navigation, outcomes, humanity, hard, still, idea, joy, without, variety, joyful, experiences, only, real, meaningful, easily, pin, down, flip, side, benefit, significantly, privately, funded, contribute, end, better, off, individual, almost, never, return, investment, supporting, citizen, leaves, open, last, few, years, been, avoiding, involve, lot, unnecessary, suffering, hesitant, big, deal, utilitarian, grounds, pain, since, used, place, ice, cream, mentioned, tax, improved, departure, usual, style, fleshes, out, fairness, based, favorite, changes, proposal, many, favor, old, quotes, joseph, stieglitz, basic, point, economics, person, scary, hardware, running, someone, else, run, tons, copies, horrible, conditions, see, also, qntm, lena, great, guarantee, situation, local, environment, recently, got, confused, thinking, following, case, offered, opportunity, mathematical, statement, which, initially, assign, probability, perhaps, 139926, quadratic, residue, modulo, 314159, access, reliable, corrupts, subsumed, timeless, cdt, sometimes, object, saying, distinction, between, causation, important, practice, how, role, possibly, right, long, time, readers, probably, know, here, current, take, should, condition, causally, intervene, statements, algorithm, outputs, description, something, you, way, defining, discuss, truly, shot, prisoner, dilemma, kindness, makes, common, often, lumped, together, under, weird, acausal, stuff, worth, distinguishing, work, quite, differently, talk, details, argue, month, lost, bunch, back, early, odds, ride, sharing, available, cities, made, similar, dozen, times, everyone, disagreed, first, deployment, potentially, meet, our, was, phoenix, home, menu, skip,

Text of the page (random words):
the sideways view looking askance at reality skip to content the sideways view looking askance at reality menu home about self driving car bets july 29 2023 this month i lost a bunch of bets back in early 2016 i bet at even odds that self driving ride sharing would be available in 10 us cities by july 2023 then i made similar bets a dozen times because everyone disagreed with me the first deployment to potentially meet our bar was phoenix in more self driving car bets leave a comment self driving car bets three reasons to cooperate december 24 2022 in this post i ll discuss three reasons to cooperate in a truly one shot prisoner s dilemma kindness makes common sense but correlation and reciprocity are often lumped together under weird acausal stuff i think they are worth distinguishing because they work quite differently i ll talk about details of correlation and reciprocity and then argue that most more three reasons to cooperate leave a comment three reasons to cooperate decision theory and dynamic inconsistency july 3 2022 here is my current take on decision theory when making a decision after observing x we should condition or causally intervene on statements like my decision algorithm outputs y after observing x updating seems like a description of something you do when making good decisions in this way not part of defining what a good more decision theory and dynamic inconsistency 1 comment decision theory and dynamic inconsistency what is causality to an evidential decision theorist april 17 2022 subsumed by timeless decision theory edt cdt people sometimes object to evidential decision theory by saying it seems like the distinction between correlation and causation is really important to making good decisions in practice so how can a theory like edt with no role for causality possibly be right long time readers probably know my answer but more what is causality to an evidential decision theorist 3 comments what is causality to an evidential decision theorist edt with updating double counts october 12 2021 i recently got confused thinking about the following case calculator bet i am offered the opportunity to bet on a mathematical statement x to which i initially assign 50 probability perhaps x 139926 is a quadratic residue modulo 314159 i have access to a calculator that is 99 reliable i e it corrupts the answer more edt with updating double counts 6 comments edt with updating double counts secure homes for digital people october 10 2021 being a digital person could be scary if i don t have control over the hardware i m running on then someone else could get my code and run tons of copies in horrible conditions see also qntm s lena it would be great to guarantee digital people some control over their situation 1 to control their local environment more secure homes for digital people 1 comment secure homes for digital people improving capital gains taxes july 9 2021 as i ve mentioned i think the tax code could be improved in a departure from my usual style this post fleshes out some fairness based arguments for one of my favorite changes i think that this proposal and many of the arguments in favor is old wikipedia quotes joseph stieglitz making the basic point in economics more improving capital gains taxes leave a comment improving capital gains taxes demand offsetting march 21 2021 for the last few years i ve been avoiding factory farmed eggs because i think they involve a lot of unnecessary suffering i m hesitant to be part of that even if it s not a big deal on utilitarian grounds this is a pain since factory farmed eggs are used all over the place e g in ice cream more demand offsetting 10 comments demand offsetting distributed public goods provision september 26 2020 most people benefit significantly from privately funded public goods e g wikipedia if we all contribute to such public goods then we can all end up better off but as an individual it s almost never a good return on investment i think of supporting such public goods as being a good citizen but that leaves open more distributed public goods provision 1 comment distributed public goods provision hedonic asymmetries january 26 2020 creating really good outcomes for humanity seems hard we get bored if we don t get bored we still don t like the idea of joy without variety and joyful experiences only seems good if they are real and meaningful in some sense we can t easily pin down and so on on the flip side creating really more hedonic asymmetries 2 comments hedonic asymmetries posts navigation older posts archives july 2023 december 2022 july 2022 april 2022 october 2021 july 2021 march 2021 september 2020 january 2020 october 2019 september 2019 august 2019 july 2019 june 2019 may 2019 september 2018 august 2018 july 2018 june 2018 may 2018 march 2018 february 2018 december 2017 october 2017 february 2017 december 2016 november 2016 october 2016 elsewhere on the internet personal homepage ai control blog ea blog reciprocity io twitter for commitments search search for create a website or blog at wordpress com subscribe subscribed the sideways view join 109 other subscribers sign me up already have a wordpress com account log in now privacy the sideways view subscribe subscribed sign up log in report this content view site in reader manage subscriptions collapse this bar loading comments write a comment email required name required website