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s examination of russian options that putin is preparing and may pursue in conjunction with an overt move into occupied donbas an air and missile campaign possibly extensive throughout unoccupied ukraine we have observed indicators that he is preparing this option we assess that such an air campaign in unoccupied ukraine is significantly more likely than an invasion intended to seize large areas of unoccupied ukraine including kyiv and other major cities putin could initiate the air and missile campaign and or limited ground incursions in southeastern and southern ukraine before russian forces have completed deployments to and preparations along the northern ukrainian frontier and in belarus we are not yet ready as of january 27 2022 to forecast that putin will actually order the air and missile campaign in conjunction with the move into donbas but policymakers must be aware of the conditions the kremlin is setting for that contingency separate from preparations for a major ground offensive a russian air and missile campaign that targets both occupied and unoccupied ukraine could pose an even greater short term challenge to the us and nato than an invasion to occupy most of ukraine in the same way that a live hostage situation creates more tension and complexity while in progress than a completed murder once russian mechanized forces have seized ukraine s capital and major cities putin s effective leverage on the west drops substantially as he will have exercised the near complete extent of his ability to damage ukraine and left little for the west to try to deter by action or prevent by appeasement a partial attack that retains the visible capability to go further however increases the pressure on the west to meet some of putin s demands to dissuade him from further violence holding back from the conquest of kyiv and major ukrainian cities allows putin to continue to demand concessions from the west that transcend ukrainian issues such as blanket commitments not to expand nato further russia s military conquest of ukraine would seem to make such commitments irrelevant and reduce pressure on the west to make them an air and missile campaign that leaves the ukrainian state nominally independent with a beleaguered and fearful government and people however allows putin to protract the crisis he can continue his efforts to maximize the tension and friction among ukraine the united states and america s european allies especially the germans given their extreme vulnerability to russia s energy pressure by using the threats of continuing air attacks the economic devastation of ukraine and europe or finally the invasion and occupation of ukraine an air and missile campaign against unoccupied ukraine would pose less cost and risk to russia compared with an invasion and occupation of territory although an air and missile campaign would incur more cost and risk than simply moving forces overtly into occupied donbas without attacking beyond the current line of contact the united states and nato should prioritize developing a coherent response to this course of action in addition to their other efforts to deter and set conditions to respond to russian threats the objectives of such a russian air and missile campaign could include expanding wedges in the western alliance increasing pressure on the west to make larger concessions regarding nato expansion in general and the disposition of nato forces in eastern europe forcing ukraine to make further concessions to russian demands regarding occupied donbas coercing ukraine into accepting a new version of the minsk accords or an entirely different agreement making even more concessions that undermine ukrainian sovereignty forcing ukraine to amend its constitution to rule out nato membership disrupting the ukrainian government creating a governance and stability crisis in ukraine by forcing concessions that infuriate ukrainian patriots crippling the ukrainian economy and severely degrading the ukrainian military to set conditions for further demands or russian military activities if putin is not able to secure his objectives through this more limited campaign an air and missile campaign would be far more likely to achieve these objectives than simply moving russian forces overtly into occupied donbas it would also be more likely to achieve these aims at a cost acceptable to putin than a mechanized drive along the northern azov sea coast would alone if the kremlin can protract the crisis on its terms it can raise the costs to the united states and nato the united states and nato must prioritize preventing putin from protracting the crisis by rapidly increasing the risks to his forces and the cost to the russian economy as soon as he initiates the conflict either by moving forces overtly into occupied donbas or by attacking unoccupied ukraine the united states and nato could best deter or disrupt such an attack by deploying and using ground and sea based air and missile defense systems and stealth fighters to shoot down russian manned aircraft attacking targets in unoccupied ukraine the purpose of such western military operations would be to impose high enough costs on russia to persuade putin to avoid or terminate the operation overt russian deployments into donbas with or without a russian air campaign in unoccupied ukraine should trigger the full array of us and european punitive sanctions on russia the united states and its allies should also define a threshold at which continued covert russian deployments into occupied donbas would trigger a response but the russian course of action considered in this essay including the air and missile campaign puts tremendous pressure on the us relationship with its reluctant partners especially germany if it does not involve significant russian forces invading unoccupied ukraine the united states and its more committed allies must prepare now for this challenging contingency european responses to us attempts to rally the alliance to deter putin thus far suggest that a more limited russian attack is more likely to weaken and fragment nato than the military conquest of most of ukraine a full russian invasion and occupation of ukraine including kyiv and or other major urban centers collapses the west s decision space and is the likeliest russian course of action to trigger a strong coherent set of western reactions russian military aggression short of a full scale invasion even including an extensive air campaign however gives putin the initiative and creates uncertainty about how putin will ultimately resolve the crisis putin has used this approach to great effect in syria and elsewhere it opens room for much debate and disagreement about responses among the united states its european allies and ukraine continuing russian economic pressure on europe especially germany amidst such a crisis may seriously erode alliance cohesion the united states and its other nato partners must nevertheless accept the risk of serious strain and even damage to the us german and nato german relationship to respond decisively to this more limited form of russian aggression allowing putin to coerce major concessions from ukraine or the west through limited aggression poses a greater danger to the nato alliance s cohesion credibility and even survival than does antagonizing germany and other recalcitrant nato members by imposing tough economic penalties on russia that hurt those allies economically repairing strains with germany and other allies especially those caused by bad decisions the german government has already made is a more manageable problem in the long run posted by pounce_uk at 1 28 2022 04 35 00 am isw putin s likely course of action in ukraine 2022 01 28t04 35 00 05 00 pounce_uk isw russia ukraine comments e mail this article labels isw russia ukraine ukraine russian situation report january 25th 2022 isw the nice people at the institute for the study of war have brought out a map which shows the situation around the ukraine regards russian troop deployments as of the 25 th january 2022 posted by pounce_uk at 1 28 2022 04 27 00 am ukraine russian situation report january 25th 2022 2022 01 28t04 27 00 05 00 pounce_uk isw ukraine comments e mail this article labels isw ukraine thursday january 27 2022 interlude joe walsh life s been good posted by pounce_uk at 1 27 2022 08 00 00 pm interlude joe walsh life s been good 2022 01 27t20 00 00 05 00 pounce_uk good music comments e mail this article labels good music us navy loses f35 south china sea on tuesday a f35c the carrier variant ended up in the drink after landing on the uss carl vinson snapping the arrestor cable resulting in the aircraft traversing the entire flight deck before ending up in the drink thankfully the pilot ejected but not before several crew members were injured by the back lash from the cable the navy is currently on a mission to recover the aircraft posted by pounce_uk at 1 27 2022 03 59 00 pm us navy loses f35 2022 01 27t15 59 00 05 00 pounce_uk us navy comments e mail this article labels us navy thursday january 20 2022 interlude free all right now posted by pounce_uk at 1 20 2022 08 00 00 pm interlude free all right now 2022 01 20t20 00 00 05 00 pounce_uk good music comments e mail this article labels good music monday january 17 2022 uk supplies the ukraine with light anti tank weapons london in a change from not supplying the ukraine with weapons the british defence secretary ben wallace informed parliament on monday that due to the ever increasing threat to the ukraine from russia he has ok d the supply of short range anti tank weapons to the country with the first dispatch landing monday evening at kiev on board a british c17 transport aircraft along with military staff who will teach the ukrainians how to use the weapons whilst he did not specify the number or type of weapons that were being sent he stated these are short range but nevertheless it would make people pause and think what they were doing and if tanks were to roll into ukraine invade it then they would be part of the defence mechanism they are not strategic weapons and pose no threat to russia they are to use in self defence interestingly the c17 flew around germany to the ukraine due to berlins stance not to support kiev with weapons of note is the fact that the british aircraft are avoiding german airspace pic twitter com ezldthnp67 george allison geoallison january 17 2022 the only short range anti tank weapon the british uses is the main battle tank and light anti tank weapon mbt law also known as the nlaw it is a joint british and swedish disposable short range fire and forget anti tank missile system which builds upon the innovative swedish bill missiles which taking note of the heavy armour and explosive plates in use by russian armour decided that striking the vehicle from above targeting the much weaker armour would afford a much better solution of taking it out posted by pounce_uk at 1 17 2022 07 53 00 pm uk supplies the ukraine with light anti tank weapons 2022 01 17t19 53 00 05 00 pounce_uk uk ukraine comments e mail this article labels uk ukraine sunday january 16 2022 north korea carries out 4th missile launch this month pyongyang it appears that the biden effect has embolden every man and his dog to flex their stuff in the direction of washington in which to proclaim come and have a go if think yer hard enough so after russia china and iran stuck the finger at the sniffer in chief north korea did likewise by launching 2 short range ballistic missiles this morning into the sea of japan this being the fourth such missile launch this month alone whilst nk claims it is in response to sanctions the us placed on 5 north korean what they fail to mention is that the first two missile launches on the 5 th and 10 th of jan 2022 took place before the sanctions were put in place on the 14th the reverberations from when biden made a right mess of pulling out of afghanstan are going to keep on coming for years to come posted by pounce_uk at 1 16 2022 11 28 00 pm north korea carries out 4th missile launch this month 2022 01 16t23 28 00 05 00 pounce_uk north korea comments e mail this article labels north korea belgium 23 year old frenchman arrested for pushing a woman into the path of subway train brussels on friday evening a man snook up and pushed a woman onto the tracks of an oncoming subway at rogier metro station in the centre of brussels thankfully the train managed to stop just in time the pusher a 23 year old frenchman was arrested not long after due to his picture hitting social media within seconds currently sitting in a cell he is under evaluation by a trick cyclist in which to ascertain just why he did so ️vidéo choc tentative de meurtre dans la station de métro rogier à bruxelles ce vendredi vers 19h40 pic twitter com dt0ag5qefu infos bruxelles bruxelles_city january 14 2022 posted by pounce_uk at 1 16 2022 05 16 00 pm belgium 23 year old frenchman arrested for pushing a woman into the path of subway train 2022 01 16t17 16 00 05 00 pounce_uk brussels stupid twat comments e mail this article labels brussels stupid twat us hostage taker shot dead at texas synagogue identified as british colleyville 44 year old british citizen malik faisal akram decided to up sticks and travel across the pond from blackburn in lancashire and take the congregation hostage at a texas synagogue was shot dead by us security forces after around 12 hours of standoff apparently akram demanded the release of convicted pakistani neuroscientist aafia siddiqui who is currently serving an 86 year prison term in the us for terrorism malik faisal akram his family via the local mosque in the uk have issued a statement apologising to the victims and saying he akram had been suffering from mental health issues but what i find most disturbing is the mosque s facebook message wants him to be rewarded for being a terrorist posted by pounce_uk at 1 16 2022 02 15 00 pm us hostage taker shot dead at texas synagogue identified as british 2022 01 16t14 15 00 05 00 pounce_uk anti semitism islamic intolerance comments e mail this article labels anti semitism islamic intolerance thursday january 13 2022 interlude 10cc the things we do for love posted by pounce_uk at 1 13 2022 08 00 00 pm interlude 10cc the things we do for love 2022 01 13t20 00 00 05 00 pounce_uk good music comments e mail this article labels good music friday january 7 2022 us vp kamala harris causes outrage comparing the 2021 capitol riot to attack on pearl harbor in 1941 and the 9 11 attacks on us washington it never fails to amaze me the lengths the left of the political centre will go to in which to character assassinate anybody who doesn t support them and yesterday vice president kamala harris caused something of an outrage by comparing the jan 6 capitol riot to the japanese attack on pearl harbour in 1941 and the sept 11 attacks on new york and washington by al qaeda terr...