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eration to generation as a sacred talisman a precious memory of those distant and dramatic times when we think of the symbols of latvian statehood we think of the flag the national anthem the latvian language and also our own lat somehow the rapid shift from reasoned argument to hyperbolic accusations and pathos doesn t surprise me but makes one wonder why both politicians are risking taking this tack grigule should she fail to get her 34 signatures would lose her quickly gained celebrity something which the sc might think about before having all 31 of their parliamentarians running pen in hand to a potential political rival if anything grigule s nationalist appeal is aimed more at getting one two maybe more jānis dombravas to bolt from the national alliance na as dombrava did by breaking with the coalition and voting against the euro implementation law which passed anyway by 52 40 in any case i suspect that a lot of sc voters good citizens of latvia have more likely handed down some czarist gold ruble coins in the family not the silver milda coin from the 1930s while the 2014 saeima elections are still far off grigule s waving of the lat banknote as flag is a signal where the zzs will seek their first political allies hoping to be treated as politically respectable again after being pushed out of government because of their alleged close ties to the notorious oligarch and deposed ventspils mayor aivars lembergs zzs was an uncomfortable partner for prime minister valdis dombrovskis v government but was pushed aside in the present coalition by the anti oligarch reform party however the reform party is effectively dead garnering less than 5 voter support in recent polls not the least the once popular party founded by former president valdis zatlers just after he dismissed the previous saiema and was not re elected dug its own grave by a desperate effort to bring sc into the government at all costs zatlers whose name was in the official party name until some time ago even said that it would take tanks to break his determination to bring the populist and pro russians into government with grigule talking like a fellow traveler of the na there could be some tactical advantage to sc double crossing grigule and making sure that she gets say just 33 signers if you want more pry some loose from the na whose door you have been barking at to be fair the sc at least has unsucessfully resisted the euro implementation law by proposing to amend it with impossible conditionalities lvl 300 minimum wage lvl 600 median wage unemployment under 5 fantasies at best from the mid 2020s it s sunday evening as i write but it will be monday soon and the fun can begin again posted by juris kaža at 9 34 pm no comments labels constitutional court euro euroskeptics iveta grigule national alliance sarmīte ēlerte saturday february 02 2013 the green dragon lady claims a posse or a platoon so now the monkey wrench flies toward the gears of latvia s movement toward the eurozone whether it hits and stops the wheels we will see next week however it is hard to believe that saeima deputy iveta grigule green farmers union zzs would go out on a risky limb and groundlessly claim that she has the 34 saeima deputy signatures pledged that are needed to ask the president either to refuse to sign the law on adoption of the euro or submit it for a referendum first gathering the signatures of at least 10 of the electorate the start of that process alone even if it ultimately fails insufficient signatures or the euro law is approved is a major threat to the process of euro adoption as has been pointed out earlier in addition there is yet another threat that the whole attempt to block the law can trigger a kind of constitutional crisis in latvia grigule has said that if president andris bērziņš refuses to act on the request by at least 34 deputies she will take her case to latvia s constitutional court bērziņš could refuse citing article 68 of the latvian constitution which requires at least 50 parliamentarians signatures if the disputed legislative act affects latvia s foreign relations and treaty obligations in this case it could be argued that rejecting the law on euro adoption is the same as backing out of the commitment made to eventually adopt the euro when latvia joined the european union eu in 2004 pro euro politicians including latvian prime minister valdis dombrovskis have argued that by passing laws regulating the practical and technical side of the switch from lats to euro latvia is simply fulfilling a commitment it implicitly made when the electorate voted in favor of joining the eu in 2003 the euro itself was not on the ballot it was a yes or no to the eu but the treaty latvia signed committed it to adopting the euro when it met the maastricht criteria which it now seems to be doing after failing to do so in 2008 and 2011 it is interesting how the issue would be framed before the constitutional court and i am no expert on latvian constitutional law it seems that the court would have to rule explicitly or implicitly on whether there was a latvian treaty commitment to adopt the euro which could be changed by a referendum rejecting the implementation law the president s rejection of a petition by less than 50 saeima deputies would also mean that bērziņš at least implicitly supports this interpretation after all if no international treaty commitment by latvia would be affected by a potential referendum then there was no commitment in force the same if the court rules against bērziņš in effect the issue of whether latvia already voted to adopt the euro when it joined the eu and would be substantially modifying this commitment by stopping the implementation law or whether there was no such commitment will end up decided by the constitutional court so far so good for iveta grigule who has become the opposition s dragon lady to the coalition government and has probably lured jānis dombrava of the national alliance to her lair but what happens next when latvia is cast into the murky ozone as far as its relationship with the euro in general after all if there are no immediate or even medium term plans to adopt the euro then the lat could come under various kinds of pressure if uncertainty jacks up interest rates and yields on the relatively few latvian interest bearing instruments available to foreign investors or investors in general rise the lat could surge or it could plunge on uncertainty fear and paranoia how many millions is the bank of latvia ready to spend to stabilize the currency and by what targets or standards to keep it in a narrow erm ii corridor when being in the erm ii regime is in question no one seems to have a we just postponed the euro indefinitely scenario for a managed float of the lat pegged to what or not pegged dancing around to translate a off colorful latvian expression like a fart in a frying pan kā pirdiens uz pannas all of these issues may come into focus next week if the dragon lady gets her way question is will the dragon be able to blow out any dangerous fires it sets fyi a platoon is a military unit typically composed of two to four sections or squads and containing 26 to 50 soldiers the dragon lady claims she has her platoon dear latvian readers the green dragon here has nothing to do with the national sport of alcoholism zaļais pūķis no such reference to deputy grigule is intended posted by juris kaža at 1 25 am no comments labels constitutional court euro euroskeptics eurozone latvia latvian economy latvian lat latvian politics saeima friday february 01 2013 the euro implementation vote is only the start latvia s parliament the saeima passed a law setting out the technical procedures for switching from its national currency the lat to the euro on january 1 2014 assuming that it succeeds in getting the green light for admission to the eurozone from the european commission and the european central bank the vote was a bare majority of 52 to 40 with one parliamentarian from the national alliance part of the governing coalition jānis dombrava voting against in what was permitted as a vote based on conscience just late last year the national alliance shook the coalition by suggesting it could oppose the euro backing off from its early official position in favor of joining the eurozone however there could still be obstacles to a smooth entry there is a less than trivial possibility that opposition harmony center will get three more parliamentarians in addition to their own 31 to get the necessary 34 votes to request president andris bērziņš to initiate a referendum on whether latvia should adopt the euro saeima deputy iveta grigule of the opposition green farmers alliance zzs said she would urge the other 12 members of her party in the saeima to sign zzs faction leader augusts brigmanis had earlier said no one from the zzs would sign once the referendum ball gets rolling latvia would like an airline unsure of its estimated time of arrival lose the january 1 2014 slot for joining the eurozone while latvia has missed opportunities before in 2008 and 2011 when it did not fully meet the maastricht criteria it could also lose the current window of maastricht compliant economic indicators as morten hansen an economist who teaches at the stockholm school of economics recently pointed out latvia s export driven economic growth could soon boost inflation above maastricht limits assuming the country maintains steady non credit fueled high growth and moderate wage and price rises this could have the paradoxical effect of shutting the maastricht window on an otherwise sound economy this is what is at stake indefinite postponement of euro adoption while still keeping the lat as a virtual euro pegged at 0 702 santims per euro unless someone comes up with a better idea indeed if the idea of the parliamentary opposition is to back away from the eurozone indefinitely it might be wise to consider an alternative managed float for the lat but this is not being discussed mostly the debate has been framed in terms of avoiding various economic cataclysms such as a post adoption jump in consumer prices poor competitiveness that can no longer be counteracted by monetary policy not that it could before with no room for devaluation under the present very tight corridor and demands to pay the bills of other wealthier but economically more troubled eurozone countries the example is made that unemployed greeks collect far more in benefits than a latvian can earn working at a normal job a strong undercurrent of the anti euro arguments is nationalism the lat launched in the 1920s from a menagerie of interim currencies and world war i occupation scrip was replaced by the soviet ruble in 1940 and reappeared again in 1993 between the time latvia regained its independence in 1991 and the re launch of the lat latvian rubles were used and given the nickname of repshies after the then governor of the bank of latvia einārs repše for many latvians the currency is a symbol of national sovereignty like the red white red flag also repressed under the soviet occupation and carried out into the light again by some daring individuals during the perestroika period of the late 1980s latvians still recall the emotional raising of the red white red standard over what is now the presidential palace in 1988 on november 11 a pre war day of remembrance for those who died in latvia s war for independence from 1918 1920 if the opposition parliamentarians fail to get the referendum ball rolling they can try to collect 30 000 signatures to initiate a referendum from below here they may get some sinister allies among them the antiglobalists demanding latvia re instate the death penalty for economic crimes and by the way calling most of what has happened over the past 20 years a string of such crimes point two of the antiglobalists 2010 program calls for starting a nuremburg trial against those persons by whose action or inaction over the past 20 years the economic destruction and looting of latvia took place and for political decisions that harmed the latvian state and nation in other parts of the manifesto the antiglobalists call for a protectionist autarkic and state controlled economic system that of necessity implies latvia s exit from the european union eu and probably from several international trade treaties another bizarre addition to the extraparliamentary opposition to the euro is the gustavs celmiņš center which is a revived inter war latvian fascist movement under the name of its founder and leader gustavs celmiņš who despite his sympathies for the italian and german dictatorships of the 1930s ended up in a german concentration camp celmiņš was liberated by us troops from another camp in austria where he was held at the end of the war thereafter according to wikipedia in 1949 he emigrated to the united states from 1950 to 1952 he was an instructor at syracuse university s armed forces school in new york state and beginning in 1951 he was also the director of the foreign language program for the us air force and a television lecturer about the ussr and communism from 1954 to 1956 he worked as a manufacturer in mexico between 1956 and 1958 he was a librarian at trinity university in san antonio texas in 1959 he became a professor of russian studies at st mary s university in san antonio texas he died on 10 april 1968 in san antonio texas as far as is known celmiņš steered clear of neo nazis in the us and actually began sabotaging the recruitment of latvian auxiliary police that he was entrusted to do during the german occupation when it became clear some of these units would be used against civilians including jews celmiņš modern day fan club is openly anti semitic and its present leader igors šiškins a latvian despite his slavic name has served time for attempting to blow up the soviet era victory monument in riga the blast failed to seriously damage the monument also forming a group within the saeima to defend the lat are several deputies led by nikolajs kabanovs of harmony center whom many see as unsympathetic to latvian causes in effect a strange informal alliance has formed between pro russian an ethnic russian kabanovs and the renegade nationalist dombrava prime minister valdis dombrovskis unity party has demanded an explanation and possibly sanctions for the young nationalist s breach with coalition discipline my take is that if the parliamentarians don t trigger a referendum the loonazoids of the broader anti euro movement are unlikely to be the ones on the front lines of gathering 30 000 signatures sociological studies show that latvian society is conservative politically authoritarian and economically statist socialist but most ordinary people would draw the line at throwing their signatures in with šiškins or kabanovs the antiglobalists perhaps posted by juris kaža at 2 09 am 2 comments labels coalition euro eurozone green farmers alliance harmony center latvia neofas...