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science there are still battles to be fought about me background to the blog there are still battles to be fought a periodic blog on matters health union social justice and the occasional random rant search tag archives science we need to give up on herd immunity 16 saturday oct 2021 posted by tara nipe in uncategorized leave a comment tags breaking research covid 19 health care nursing pandemic population health science vaccination a pre published iranian study https www medrxiv org content 10 1101 2021 10 04 21264540v1 confirms what experts have been saying from early in the pandemic striving for herd immunity is hopeless contracting covid 19 doesn t confer immunity but vaccines do at least for a while the colour coding in the map below indicates the average number of times residents in each province have been infected the darker green the more instances in three provinces kurdistan north khorasan qazvin the average rate over 5 surges across iran is 1 5 times for every person 1 55 1 57 and 1 63 respectively over 21 months this rate was higher in baluchistan and sistan the average infection rate was 120 by january of this year i e in the first year of the pandemic but despite this exposure the fourth and fifth surges were the deadliest and every person living in these provinces contracted covid 19 2 5 times on average the odds are still good that sars cov 2 will eventually mutate into a flu like illness that s predominantly benign for the majority of people but the question is how long that will take while we still can t say with certainty how long acquired immunity is effective with over a billion people world wide double vaccinated we do know that all the available vaccines substantial reduce every risk contracting the virus passing it on being symptomatic becoming significantly ill requiring hospitalisation needing icu level care intubation ecmo dying and developing long covid how do we avoid following iran get vaccinated continue to wear masks and social distance and support our exhausted frontline workers extracorporeal membranous oxygenation ecmo is like dialysis for lungs that are too damaged to exchange gases if you need it then you already have a tube down your throat so you can breathe drugs to sedate and paralyse you other drugs to keep your blood pressure stable a catheter into your bladder to drain urine intravenous fluids and nutrition either through a tube into your stomach or directly into your blood stream at a minimum adding ecmo is a big deal it can only be done in major hospital icus is needed 24 hours a day until you die or your lungs recover enough to exchange oxygen and carbon dioxide again and requires even more drugs to reduce complications like blood thinners to stop your blood clotting in the tubing or machine 1331 words on vaccinations and some questions 09 monday feb 2015 posted by tara nipe in uncategorized 2 comments tags facty facts health health care population health science vaccination this post was prompted by being involved in two discussion threads about immunisation yesterday one on fb and one on twitter the latter still progressing they re not the first and i very much doubt they ll be the last i started writing this as a fb post and when it grew decided it would be better here partly because of its length partly because i wanted to insert a couple of sources and partly because this way it may have a wider audience if so i hope it s useful to eliminate any doubt i am a proponent of vaccinations i have the fluvax every winter and the one year i didn t through chance not intent i contracted h1n5 and i paid to have a pertussis vaccination because there are small children in my life even if i wasn t concerned about the health and welfare of my father who s on immunosuppressant medications for an autoimmune disease and who had an emergency splenectomy three years ago so is double compromised my infant nieces born early and living in one of the lowest vaccination areas in the us myself and my colleagues daily exposed to infectious disease sometimes undiagnosed on presentation and my patients transplant recipients people with cancer people with diabetes people with autoimmune disease people with hiv i m concerned about my community as a tax payer i m concerned about the massively higher cost of treating rather than preventing these diseases and as a nurse it s clear that many people who oppose vaccinations do so out of fear and concern for their children s safety and i understand how if you haven t seen these rare but returning diseases the threat of some nebulous something bad happening that you facilitated feels more real than childhood illnesses like chicken pox that you had and survived intact vague theories about herd immunity and protecting other people s children feel a lot less important than the safety of the child in front of you your child and a lot of the components sound alarming until you realise that formaldehyde is also made by your body and is present in far higher quantities in everyday foods like apples and pears but i ve been told that s naturally occurring formaldehyde not synthetic in some cases that may make a difference at a molecular level and formaldehyde s a molecule a molecule s a molecule or that the foetal bovine serum is a growth medium for live culture present at miniscule levels within the attenuated virus and that insulin used to be manufactured from porcine and bovine sources or that insulin today contains glycerol phenol meta cresol zinc chloride dibasic sodium phosphate dihydrate sodium chloride sodium hydroxide hydrochloric acid but we don t see people refusing insulin until they have proof it s safe here s a fda link explaining why vaccination components are needed while many of us would be ashamed or embarrassed being labelled illiterate there s sometimes a kind of pride in being innumerate mathematically illiterate or sub literate and the same perplexingly goes for scientific illiteracy we can t all understand my astrophysicist brother in law s research i certainly don t but fundamental scientific knowledge should be well fundamental like the fact that everything s made up of chemicals even natural unadulterated organic raw food chemicals are not as a group dangerous scary undesirable or possible to avoid their names can be long and complex but they re part of everything around us and they are us the people writing this skewed information have to know that while its true a high salt diet causes hypertension in genetically prone adults alarmingly listing sodium chloride as a toxic vaccine ingredient with the described effect of raises blood pressure and inhibits muscle contraction and growth when it s present in a smaller amount than is in a handful of corn flakes is at best misleading and almost certainly false they certainly know that vaccinations aren t injected directly into the blood stream too as everyone who s ever received any vaccination knows they re injected into muscle in either the upper arm thigh or rarely buttock if their evidence of risk is robust enough to mean parents shouldn t immunise their children against the known and real risks of infectious diseases why muddy the waters with clear distortion mistruth and fearmongery everything we do has an element of risk we reduce that risk as much as we can particularly when it comes to our children the risk of death is only 1 of infants hospitalised with botulism but we don t give honey to babies under 12 months even breast fed ones and even organic honey even in tiny doses because their gut s immune system can t fight clostridium even though most honey doesn t contain it it s true that vaccinations are not without risk they re as safe as we can make them but there will always be some risk to some people when it comes to vaccinations most of the adverse reactions are mild redness or low grade treatable with paracetamol acetaminophen pain at the site low grade fever a harmless rash and considerably milder than the disease they re protecting against in very rare cases a person may develop anaphylaxis a life threatening histological response that causes swelling of the airway this occurs almost immediately which is why there s an observation period after receiving any vaccination and why immunisers are trained in anaphylaxis management the rate of anaphylaxis for the measles vaccine is 3 5 10 1 000 000 there are also risks of febrile convulsion generally one with no ongoing problems at a rate of 1 per 1 150 3 000 and possibly a rare blood disorder thrombocytopenia source for both stats as before for comparison i wanted to provide the anaphylaxis risk of other agents including peanuts bee stings and ant bites but though their incidence and the incidence of other food allergies is increasing particularly in australia and new zealand actual risk per exposure figures don t seem to be easily sourced te closest i found was this update from the australasian society of clinical immunology and allergy i suspect that s because vaccinations are more highly scrutinised than other potential allergens whatever the reason though i can t provide figures there s no question the reaction rates are higher for these hazards by many times than even the mildest response from vaccinations however we already know that facts rarely sway people who have made decisions based in part or in whole from emotion particularly fear indeed facts can make them feel attacked and more strongly hold on to their position so the two fold points of this post at last the first is for people who are concerned that the risks of vaccination outweigh the risks of preventable disease why do you mistrust the opinions of the overwhelming number of experts conversely why do you place more faith in the opinions of people who have on the face of it less knowledge and fewer qualifications what kind of evidence or argument would give you cause to reconsider are you opposed to concerned about all vaccinations or some if the latter why them and for those of us in health government and public policy what strategies can we utilise to enhance listening and engage concerned parents how can we more effectively educate the public about the risks of diseases and the comparative safety of immunisation if you re reading this and have an opinion whether you fall into one of these groups concerned or practitioner or both please comment i value information about this and on a far bigger level we must must must increase numeracy scientific literacy and critical thinking across the board people who understand the concepts underlying theories including herd immunity and climate change who can assess statistics and who can detect invalid arguments and faulty premises are better equipped to make informed decisions about all aspects of their lives from taking out short term high interest loans the topic of another rant to deciding on vaccination i had a febrile convulsion as an 18 month old as the result of a nasty cold children under the age of two have more trouble regulating high temperatures than adults do i had no complications and have never had another seizure search recent posts it s not only icu under pressure the problem with let it rip we need to give up on herd immunity how many aged care deaths before the government acts is a fifo workforce the answer for covid quarantine archives january 2022 october 2021 february 2021 november 2019 september 2019 november 2018 october 2018 march 2018 november 2017 october 2017 september 2017 august 2017 july 2017 june 2017 september 2016 august 2016 july 2016 march 2016 january 2016 april 2015 february 2015 november 2014 september 2014 august 2014 may 2014 march 2014 february 2014 december 2013 october 2013 september 2013 august 2013 july 2013 april 2013 march 2013 february 2013 january 2013 december 2012 november 2012 october 2012 september 2012 august 2012 july 2012 june 2012 may 2012 april 2012 march 2012 february 2012 january 2012 december 2011 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