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dwin feb 12 2026 34 8 5 share you didn t miss my last newsletter i only send when it s good enough and worth your time sometimes that takes two months the big one i m in two minds i always thought that fully self driving cars would be impossible how would a car ever know the difference between a paper bag and a rock in the road or get a sense of when a kid would chase a ball into the road it turns out with enough data and enough compute rather like a person you can mostly solve that problem some people in the world think this sort of applies to everything with enough data and compute you can have humanoid robots that do any job from laundry to mining to teaching to nursing everything comes down to more data and more processing power they think with ai you can invent new materials develop new drugs you can predict the roi of a tagline or pretest a new kombucha variants success or answer the big questions like what s best finish quantum powerball or ultimate powerball or power powerball this week more than any other which we didn t think possible all manner of craziness is afoot openclaw 5 3 codex claude cowork it s relentless waves of breakthoughts and ever more dramatic claims are these things becoming emergent or are they just doing precisely what we precisely told them to do i m in the godforsaken middle again i think 97 of people are not thinking about ai enough or they underestimate it they are a somewhat vulnerable ignorant unprepared for some true changes that will almost inevitably come from being scammed by clones to sharing fake news it will impact everyone and we ve a painfully loud 3 of the world thinking about it far far too much people mesmerized by promises who underestimate the truly vast real world challenges of turning even the most magical tech into something that can be implemented or add value in the slightest of ways it s all taking on the characteristics of religion evangelicals saying the end of the world is nigh exasperation over the non believers the heretics who ask questions it would be easier to take seriously if they weren t the same people who barked like seals at the metaverse web3 and how fiat was going to fall to nft s there s a lot of gel mann amnesia too people who know least about real world jobs with no clue that more people use fax machines that slack who continue to think truck drivers jobs or architects are at risk because they have no idea what they actually do if we look at real world implementation there s all manner of shocking stats everyone loathes ms copilot openai seems to use remarkably little of their own ai 95 of gen ai pilots fail 85 of ai projects show no significant impact even the people who boasted most about integrating vibe coding went a bit quiet after the ipo so it seems like openai is struggling anthropic will say anything to get noticed microsoft have to talk up their own book no wonder they keep promising the next release will change it all or that we re making something so good we ve had to make it less powerful it feels like a con job right now we re at the inevitable loggerheads of the algorithmic age where only extreme opinions get noticed the sides are talking past each other again have fun staying poor from the nft era feels like the vibe for what it s worth i remain very much bemused by both sides i think something can be incredibly magical but not particularly valuable something can keep getting better but a tiny error rate may make it worthless i don t think the world is particularly rational in any way tech people are staggeringly odd and their thoughts and behaviors have no impact on 97 of the world companies are motivated by risk avoidance over efficiency the depth of integration which creates change not the power of the technology something can change the world but take a very long time to like everything ever before at the heart of this are many interesting questions but 2 big ones for now 1 to what extent can every problem be solved by enough compute data a lot of the promises of ai don t sit right with me maybe i m a hippy but i think a lot of the world is more unknowable than we think most data isn t accessible to ai most things are chaotic i just don t believe for the foreseeable future ai will be able to do anything like as many complex things as we think a lot of limits to the world are the wrapping around it privacy concerns regulations business models 2 how fast and how does the world really change technology changes the world based mainly how easily it fits into the world in order to fit in it tends to find small little cracks to dominate voice to text make an image write an email do something thats been done before but cheaper faster these two things make it quite unremarkable the business case for ai adoption is not particularly strong with tasks well done the office barbecue flyer went from clipart to photo realistic and now it s a michael bay movie change to the world involves taking on integration issues existing contracts secure technical debt meetings fear of losing power explainability audibility the vast majority of big company software is terrible and it doesn t change because clients get flown to f1 here and there and a software license audit will be called the moment they try to take it out we are more likely to 3d print our own furniture than develop our saas we ve spent billions and decades keeping bots off the internet and out of our sites but now we re going to let agents with read write permission roam free get out and stroke a dog i ve got this weird idea that the big division in the world is no longer rich and poor it s people who live online and people who live in the real world it s really really easy to think that ai will change the world fast until you place one foot in reality ai is a bundle of very different tools that are all quite profound in nature in the same way that the internet changed things slowly ai is a mere inflection point in this journey the progress will happen 1 cheaper faster 2 better 3 different and the leapfrogs will happen when people rethink workflows and systems rather than applying ai to what they do now ai will ultimately be 50 culture change 30 company design 20 new workflows and 10 new tools there will be many missteps initially ai will absolutely turbo charge bureaucracy not eliminate it thanks for reading nowism by tom goodwin subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work subscribe in fact i feel like the prevailing emotion in the next five years will be enormous tension the tension between what we know ai makes possible what we routinely experience we will be told that image recognition can predict crime before it happens and detect cancer at scale while the bag scanners at airports are slower than ever we will be told ai and big data will offer personalized ads but my credit card will decline a 10 charge in germany a week after buying a 10 000 flight to germany we will lose another boeing 777 we will get an mri scan on a dvd we will need to do a wet signature after a phone has scanned 30 000 data points on my face picking up a rental car will be as awful as ever all while we re also experiencing the most magical moments we can ever imagine little ones turbocharging the wrong things this piece in hbr is fantastic and very timely it shows that ai doesn t so much reduce work as make it more chaotic and intense one of the really weird things about the modern era is that productivity still seems related to effort and outputs more than outcomes the big fear from ai for me is that we do vast amounts of things that don t need to happen because focusing on what matters takes balls what could go wrong with a bot controlling everything you d be an idiot to try claude bot unless you know precisely what you re doing i don t so i relied on pieces like this to show me what i m missing personal ai this is googles first foray b ut i m sure the next phase of ai will be about trading privacy you share more you get more help in return then someone uses this for ads that you find quite helpful book burning at scale it s always a bit weird to me that if you copy one book you get in trouble if you scan a million books burn them then charge people to make copies of them you re fine how anthropic threw away millions of books look mum no hands wonderful human and great friend of mine alex roy did something amazing well the computers did i m just putting an ai generated video of my dog in here because i feel like it it s based on a photo but the video somehow looks nothing like him bites wellness but on steroids well peptides longevity and body hacking is changing audi naming mess i don t get how car companies make so many dumb big decisions openai is quite screwed one day sam altman and sam bankman fried will have more in common than just a first name for me ai is mostly recursive it s based on the a verage of the i nternet can ai create new and can it do new math the number of scams meta happily take money from is incredible what it actually takes to build a keynote superb piece from zoe scaman 3d printed wood furniture the paper passport is dying slowly 250 000 drone deliveries from a company that should be celebrated a lot more probably the best and therefore most depressing fake music financial nihilism will probably be a big thing this year learn from the startup graveyard flying taxis are coming to florida blast from the past some trends i wrote 6 years ago the future is not that unknowable but the timing is impossible me me me this year is a bit quiet it always starts off that way i m on the edge of lots of proposals being accepted or declined i ve 15 events that may say yes or no so as of now i m open to keynote speaking or more intimate powerpoint based affairs workshops training on all elements of ai consulting where i actually solve problems you have or show you new possibilities consultant agitator got mckinsey s b team in your boss thought bain could help but it s basic average thinking from accenture bring me in and spend 5 more to get 50 more out make them work harder with me as an ally and therapist thanks for reading nowism by tom goodwin subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work subscribe 34 8 5 share nowism edition 34 blimey it s busy out there tom goodwin oct 28 2025 40 4 share this newsletter goes out irregularly but it s been quite a long gap even for me i ve got a 4 month old kid and he s not really sleeping it s not the time it takes that kills productivity it s the struggle for clarity deeper ones a reality cheques there are times it feels like although wall street isn t main street and the us isn t the world that the entire global economy is propped up by confidence from the booming nasdaq which has come about from 7 huge companies sending fake money between each other and i wonder about where that leads us thanks for reading nowism by tom goodwin subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work subscribe i personally don t think it s a bubble i think it s a spiral it s a circle of promises all based on the assumption that if you build it they will come and if they come then value will be created and if value is created it carries on but is this all just imaginary money the classic vendor financing bubble is this cisco in 1999 or lucent and nortel or railway mania or the electricity boom of the 1900 the widely circulated estimates are ai as a whole would need to generate 500b to 1t annual revenue within the next ten years or so to make all the infrastructure investments work and thats quite some way away for something mostly used as a search wrapper for reddit the way i think of this cycle is something i adapted from goldman sachs there are 4 phases of ai or layers the first phase is the foundation the construction of core ai infrastructure the gpus nvidia the datacenters the electrical power supply a friend of mine works for rolls royce a company absolutely swamped by demand for backup cooling pumps these companies are all printing real money the second phase the people building on this and the people paying for this are the hyperscalers these are amazon meta google microsoft oracle apple and more these are the people who think their only way to win or compete in the future is to be the people who own or run ai in many cases i think they are utterly wrong meta is a media company apple doesn t have to have its own ai but thats just my view phase 3 are companies who unlock ai enabled revenue these are companies who don t need to build their own ai infrastructure but can in theory make more money from building products or sell services using think palantir servicenow accenture fortinet adobe workday mongodb etc etc and then on top of these products and services is phase 4 ai enabled productivity gains which in theory should be pretty much everyone and everything the promise has always been that the hyperscalers pay for the infrastructure the ai enabled revenue companies pay for the hyperscalers and the ai enabled productivity gainers pay for ai enabled revenue the only problem seems to be there s remarkably scant proof that ai enabled productivity is that great and phase 3 companies are often pushing ai products onto unsuspecting consumers rather than selling them for huge demand driven sums how this all ends or where this all goes is completely unknown my sense is that the hype has got out of control it s like pascal s wager belief pulls people in because people would rather the same as each other but wrong be seen to knowledgeable and optimistic and enthusiastic rather than measured or cautious we have this bizzare idea that companies who move fast and first with technology win when time and time and time and time again this just isn t true it s not that ai or generative ai isn t helpful or magical or a paradigm shift in possibility it s that my beliefs are it takes depth of application of technology for productivity gains to appear transformation is about the lever arm not the force which means it takes time a decade for changes to appear a lot of really boring work needs to happen before this is possible like data strategy organizational change auditability explainability workflow analysis etc b openai everything everywhere all at once the pace of launches everywhere in ai land is crazy but openai s launch tempo is quite absurd a new browser used to take a large tech company 3 5 years to launch agonizing over every detail plotting out a launch strategy bug testing forever but sam altman appeared totally perplexed in the quite cute atlas browser launch video like he was seeing the work of people he d never seen before whether of not there is a public appetite to share passwords with an ai is one thing whether sites that have spent decades and a fortune keeping out bots will suddenly do a 180 and welcome them is far from the certain ai browsers seem to ask the question wouldn t it be great if we could talk to websites and i m just...