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wasatch economics wasatch economics friday january 18 2013 fed failed to predict 2008 recession fed admitted ignorance underplayed severity of situation just ahead of massive crisis new docs reveal 01 18 2013 if you want to feel confident that the federal reserve knows where it s going as it steers the world s biggest economy then you probably should not read the transcripts of its 2007 policy meetings those transcripts released on friday show a fed groping blindly for answers about the early market tremors preceding the financial crisis while also blithely deciding that everything was probably going to be just fine in what may be the most glaring example of the fed s forecasting failure its economists declared at the december 2007 policy meeting that the u s would avoid a recession despite a slowdown in housing and turmoil in financial markets that was getting worse all the time as we now know the worst recession since the great depression began that very same month according to the national bureau of economic research in less than a year the financial system would be on the brink of total collapse the fed didn t see it coming posted by scott at 3 32 pm 1 comment wednesday january 16 2013 technno pessimism techno pessimism when will the good times return the economist tyler cowen s notable e book the great stagnation is a key piece of this literature but the position has been reinvigorated thanks to a new paper by robert gordon mr gordon s take on stagnation is considerably more pessimistic and forward looking than mr cowen s not only is an innovative slowdown responsible for slowing progress pre crisis he argues but this trend will continue as the benefits from humanity s one big wave of innovation peter out amid demographic and fiscal headwinds it seems clear that productivity growth dropped sharply in the early 1970s relative to the earlier industrial era at least part of that slowdown is probably due to the exhaustion of benefits from the great innovations of the past electrification internal combustion engines petrochemicals and the early it of radio and telephones among them discovery didn t stop of course but the locus of innovation computing and information technology was simply too small a part of the overall economy to have a big effect on growth incomes and welfare by the mid 1990s that was no longer the case the computing age began to show up in the productivity statistics in a big way this occurred first in the technology sector itself as america captured huge gains from production of chips computers and similar technology by 2005 however something seemed to go wrong productivity in manufacturing slipped a bit and dropped substantially for the economy as a whole the 2000s were also a trying period in terms of employment and wage growth this has led some thinkers including mr gordon to conclude that the boost from it has run its course posted by scott at 1 47 pm no comments thursday january 10 2013 federal tax revenue versus debt growth here s an exponential trend looking for a breakdown now here s the chart of federal debt posted by scott at 4 30 pm no comments tuesday january 08 2013 us employment by age group note that the 55 workforce has been steadily increasing while the 25 54 workforce has declined also the 20 24 workforce has stayed roughly constant so it appears that college age workers aren t really avoiding the job market by staying in college for additional degrees source posted by scott at 1 30 pm no comments monday january 07 2013 us income inequality increasing based on the above chart of the gini ratio in fact it has spiked upward since the major recession posted by scott at 12 52 pm no comments older posts home subscribe to posts atom music fictionist invisible hand the killers mr brightside my blog list global macro monitor the 2 5 t iou big tech s off balance sheet ai bet one of the most durable comforts in the ai trade has been the belief that hyperscaler capex is discretionary if demand for chatbots and coding tools disap 3 days ago illusion of prosperity almost back to abby normal the following chart shows personal consumption of goods over services i can t speak for others but i started buying a lot more stuff when the pandemic hi 1 year ago naked capitalism links 5 7 2022 4 years ago blog archive 2013 6 january 6 fed failed to predict 2008 recession technno pessimism federal tax revenue versus debt growth us employment by age group us income inequality increasing analysis of problems in banking sector 2012 122 december 13 november 16 october 19 september 12 august 13 july 21 june 9 may 5 april 7 march 1 february 2 january 4 2011 1 december 1 2009 28 may 1 april 12 march 7 february 6 january 2 2008 55 december 6 november 2 october 2 september 4 august 4 july 7 june 11 may 2 april 3 march 5 february 4 january 5 2007 343 november 5 october 4 september 1 august 11 july 27 june 50 may 65 april 66 march 45 february 62 january 7 2005 1 october 1 about me scott oregon united 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