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n is an influencer professor at nyu stern school of business 380 887 followers 3w report this post us treasury rates have been rising albeit slowly during 2026 but long term rates hitting new highs the us government debt hitting 40 trillion and a new fed chair in kevin warsh have all combined to make them a central player in markets today in this post i look at the us treasury rate movements in 2026 and try to put that movement in context not only by looking at the history of us treasury rates going back decades but also by looking at movements in government bond rates in other currencies i then trace the effect of these rising rates on bond prices always negative and contrast them with equities where the cashflows can change as rates change the latter insight may explain the resilience of equities in 2026 even as rates have risen more interest rates and stock prices an old debate resurfaces aswath damodaran on linkedin 2 776 72 comments like comment share copy linkedin facebook x diane swonk diane swonk is an influencer chief economist and managing director at kpmg llp 33 434 followers 11mo report this post third time is a charm i have been asked why the fed shouldn t cut rates to help low income households three times this week the reasoning is that the labor market is weakening which is a problem especially for those who live paycheck to paycheck there is also an assumption implicit in the question that marginal cuts in short term rates will actually help those most in need we are seeing the worst surge in many subprime loans since the aftermath of the great recession i have a lot of empathy for the desire to shore up the labor market especially on the heels of the government shutdown and the spillover effects it is having on contractors and the ecosystems that federal workers reside in threats by the administration to make layoffs and funding freezes to some states permanent in the high stakes showdown are even more worrisome as it raises the risk that we may not recoup as much as usual when the federal government reopens that does not mean rate cuts will help by much given the inflation we are also enduring there are three reasons for my reticence on rate cuts 1 subprime interest rates are much higher than those for higher credit score borrowers any cut in rates represent little more than a drop in the bucket to lift the economic fortunes of those debtors 2 lower short term interest rates tend to boost asset prices which are already looking frothy those gains accrue more to affluent than low income households which worsens inequality and leaves more of the economy concentrated in the hands of a few households the top 3 3 are doing particularly well already the rest not so much 3 the inflation due to tariffs tends to hit low and middle income households harder than affluent households low and middle income households tend to rely more on imports which means they are bearing more of the burden of tariffs which are a regressive tax the result is a cognitive dissonance on how to restore economic opportunities for low and middle income households indeed there is a strong argument that the ultralow rate environment following the great recession fueled financial market gains and worsened instead of improved inequality the moral of the story is that monetary policy is a blunt tool especially when dealing with inequality it can help spur growth but not evenly it could even stoke an asset bubble which could burst and deal another disproortionate blow to low income households fiscal policy is better at addressing those issues if a cut in rates goes too far and stokes a more persistent bout of inflation then low income households will suffer more not less food for thought in a world where inflation and inflation expectations are both rising as the labor market weakens hence fed chairman powell s fear that there is no risk free policy choice at the moment the fed will cut next week but do so knowing that policy is still restrictive walking a tightrope more 242 34 comments like comment share copy linkedin facebook x bryce viorst founder ceo at streetsmart antler s26 11 995 followers 1y report this post goldman sachs just asked this question to 43 candidates in final rounds only 4 got it right the question walk me through how rising rates affect our m a business most candidates immediately jump to deal volume dropping wrong move the 4 who got offers understood this higher rates don t just kill deals they fundamentally change how goldman structures advisory fees and financing solutions when debt gets expensive clients need more creative capital structures more advisory complexity means higher fees per transaction goldman s m a revenue actually increased 23 in the last rate cycle because they positioned themselves as the solutions provider not just the banker the winners connected rising rates to goldman s competitive advantage in complex structuring more no more previous content no more next content 2 073 19 comments like comment share copy linkedin facebook x lawrence rascio head of fixed income trading portfolio management 2 206 followers 10mo report this post a very junior trader asked what should i be paying attention to most right now my response was simple master the plumbing because it s the key to everything i tried explaining that price action is like the surface of the water but funding is the tide so if you pay attention to funding relationships like sofr vs effr iorb or track the tga qt backdrop you ll understand why risk often turns before the headlines do when cash gets scarce funding costs jump balance sheets tighten and leveraged risk gets cut that pressure often hits the crowded high beta ai complex first relief comes when the treasury spends cash back into the system and the fed s balance sheet runoff qt is less of a headwind 1 sofr iorb reserves are tight primes are tightening levered longs may come down 2 tga bleeds down and qt slows reserves rise repo compresses beta can catch a bid plumbers dashboard sofr vs effr and vs iorb direction of stress tga path is treasury adding or returning liquidity fed balance sheet h 4 1 reserve trend month quarter end kinks dealer balance sheet windows repo color haircuts specials fails term prime broker updates client leverage margin utilization systematic flows cta vol control thresholds equity factor tape high beta vs low vol crowded baskets more 948 1 comment like comment share copy linkedin facebook x sourav toshniwal cfa level 3 candidate writes to 37k nism certified research analyst sxc 22 37 454 followers 2mo report this post most finance students know that bond prices change every day but very few understand why does a bond s price fall when interest rates rise that s where the real intuition begins so i created this one page note to simplify ️ what bond pricing is ️ how bonds are valued ️ why bond prices and yields move in opposite directions ️ premium vs par vs discount bonds ️ a simple numerical example the biggest realization for me was a bond s value isn t fixed it s determined by the present value of its future cash flows imagine you own a bond paying a 5 coupon now suppose newly issued bonds start paying 7 would another investor still pay full price for your 5 bond probably not your bond becomes less attractive so its price falls until its yield matches the market one insight many finance students miss bond prices and yields always move in opposite directions interest rates bond prices interest rates bond prices this simple relationship is one of the most important concepts in fixed income this concept is fundamental to cfa program fixed income portfolio management investment banking asset management treasury once you understand the intuition you stop memorizing formulas and start understanding why bond prices react instantly when interest rates change because in finance ️ the coupon is fixed ️ the market yield changes ️ the bond price adjusts to bridge the gap which fixed income topic should i simplify next finance bondpricing fixedincome bonds assetmanagement cfa cfalevel1 cfalevel2 more no more previous content no more next content 1 964 60 comments like comment share copy linkedin facebook x peeyush chitlangia cfa i help you master capital markets finance 100 000 professionals trained iim calcutta cfa jp morgan avendus icici pru mf sbi mf 20 top firms trust our programs 177 644 followers 1y report this post yield to maturity ytm simplest explanation with 3 ways to calculate it in excel save and share this post what is ytm yield to maturity is the return we expect to make on a bond if we buy it today at the current market price and hold it till its maturity assume a bond with following characteristics coupon 10 tenor 3 years face value 100 current price 98 if you buy this bond at 100 and hold to maturity then your return will be the same as the coupon but if you buy the bond at 98 your return will be higher the money to be received is fixed if current price face value ytm coupon if current price face value ytm coupon how do we calculate it in excel 3 methods ️ irr use irr in excel irr 98 10 10 110 10 82 ️ yield use yield function in excel yield has a syntax as given below yield settlement maturity rate pr redemption frequency basis settlement is any date say 1 jan 2024 maturity is a date 3 years down the line 1 jan 2027 rate is coupon expressed in 10 pr price 98 redemption is the face value 100 frequency 1 annual basis 1 actual day count convention input data and you will get the same answer 10 82 ️ rate you can also use the rate function pv 98 ve since you are paying this fv 100 pmt 10 nper 3 years payment at the end of the period solve for the function rate and you will get 10 82 key points to note yield to maturity assumes reinvestment at the same yield that may not happen in real life and hence actual returns may be slightly different irr and rate will work if the time when you buy the bond at the beginning or a coupon date if you buy between coupon dates yield function will give you the correct answer yield function works on a bond with face value of 100 it will give incorrect results if you take different face values like 1000 etc peeyush chitlangia cfa i help you decode complex finance concepts follow and do go through some of my earlier posts try it out on any bond data more 397 23 comments like comment share copy linkedin facebook x brian levitt brian levitt is an influencer chief global market strategist and head of strategy insights at invesco 11 194 followers 1y report this post the federalreserve fed held interest rates steady for the fourth consecutive time today signaling a dovish stance while two rate cuts are still projected for later this year they are not guaranteed and depend on economic data the fed is monitoring signs of labor market weakness and external risks like tariffs and geopolitical conflicts which could be seen as price shocks rather than inflationary pressures inflation expectations have remained contained and leading indicators suggest some economic softness easing monetary policy without a recession tends to be positive for risk assets making this meeting potentially bullish for markets more 207 5 comments like comment share copy linkedin facebook x wei li wei li is an influencer blackrock global chief investment strategist 341 221 followers 1y report this post lower fed policy rate white does not always translate into lower long rates blue this year case in point a number of factors explain the gap list not exhaustive but all relevant this year ️ fiscal trajectory ️ investor appetite including international investors ️ higher inflation premium core service inflation volatility is twice the long term levels reflecting greater macro uncertainty i continue to prefer front and belly of curve for income more no more previous content no more next content 221 24 comments like comment share copy linkedin facebook x james caan cbe james caan cbe is an influencer hamilton bradshaw serial entrepreneur investor on bbc s dragons den 2007 2010 3 283 573 followers 1y report this post 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗚𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗦𝗮𝘆 𝗔𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗖𝗮𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗢𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘁𝘆 looking at this map of 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼𝘀𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗹𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱 one thing is clear we re not living in a uniform global economy anymore we re operating in 𝗳𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 each with its own story pressures and implications take a moment to reflect 𝗧𝘂𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘆 𝗮𝘁 𝟰𝟱 𝟬 𝗔𝗿𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗮 𝗮𝘁 𝟮𝟵 𝟬 𝗥𝘂𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗮 𝗮𝘁 𝟮𝟭 𝟬 these aren t just numbers they re signals of deep rooted economic stress policy dilemmas and inflation battles being fought with blunt instruments contrast that with 𝗦𝗶𝗻𝗴𝗮𝗽𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗮𝘁 𝟮 𝟲𝟯 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼 𝗔𝗿𝗲𝗮 𝗮𝘁 𝟮 𝟵𝟬 𝗖𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗱𝗮 𝗮𝘁 𝟯 𝟬𝟬 these nations are navigating a different economic reality where monetary policy is stabilising capital is cheaper and expansion is more viable as someone who s built businesses across different continents here s what i believe 𝗘𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗲𝘂𝗿𝘀 𝗺𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗯𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘁𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗽𝗿𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗶𝗳 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗯𝘆 𝘁𝗶𝘁𝗹𝗲 because in today s world understanding interest rates isn t just for bankers it s for every founder deciding when to raise capital expand operations or enter a new market when rates are high liquidity shrinks valuations drop but acquisition opportunities rise when rates are low innovation booms competition intensifies but risk taking becomes easier the real edge in 2025 not just capital not just connections 𝗕𝘂𝘁 𝗰𝗹𝗮𝗿𝗶𝘁𝘆 clarity about where the world is heading and how your business fits within that trajectory what country on this map surprised you the most and what does it mean for your strategy globaleconomy interestrates monetarypolicy investment more no more previous content no more next content 97 10 comments like comment share copy linkedin facebook x anushka rathod forbes 30u30 asia and india i make finance fun author the money guide 2 mn community 115 841 followers 1y report this post this one decision can save you 35 lakhs on your home loan sounds too good let s break it down say you ve bought a house worth 1 crore with a 20 year loan at 9 you end up paying 2 15 crore that s 1 15 crore in interest more than the house itself sounds heavy it is in most home loans the interest ends up costing more than the house itself but now there s some relief so rbi just cut the rates by 50 bps rate the third time this year that s a total cut of 1 which is great news if you have a home loan as we know when rbi cuts rates banks are expected to follow by reducing lending rates this affects both existing floating rate home loans and new ones now your bank will likely offer you two choices either reduce your emi or reduce your loan tenure so what should you choose let s break it down with numbers loan amount 1 crore original interest 9 5 now 8 5 tenure 20 years 240 months option 1 lower emi emi drops from 93 213 to 86 782 you ll save approx 15 lakhs in interest over time but you ll still be paying for 20 years option 2 keep emi same reduce tenure tenure drops from 240 months to 202 mo...