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n real and nominal rates of interest or how the shadow banking system is supposed to work much less tripartite repurchase agreements or the basel capital standards the complexities increase every year and it is no accident that the last two fed chairs have been drawn from the highest ranks of academic economists unfortunately the federal reserve is the one area where experts have been most wrong and have caused the most harm to the people posted by winterspeak at 8 07 am 3 comments ruled by experts not the fed monday december 05 2016 trump brexit and aggregate demand a lot has been written about trump brexit and the so called revolt against the davos consensus that s been in place since clinton or earlier all of it may be true or have some truth to it but fundamentally the economics problems today stem from a lack of aggregate demand i was at an econtalk between russ roberts and john cochrane and while i was struck by how incidental the usual libertarian talking points sounded i thought that a point cochrane made about market size was very insightful he said the larger the market the greater the gains from specialization which is obviously true there is something very valuable in large open free markets and to lose that is a tragedy it s a tragedy happening right now as middle class workers seeing jobs slip away are voting for protectionist trade policies and i m a chicago boy but still support this i support this because i don t see an equally strong fiscal response creating enough demand to generate the new jobs these people can do suppose i was willing to pay a 15 premium for a made in america product but my budget constraint means i cannot if i had more money i would as i would consume local manufacture as a consumption good but taxes are so high that on the margin i end up not doing it i think the us can produce high quality products and i think there is a premium it can capture for local manufacture but i also think that the population s budget constraint means that that market is too small to employ all those individuals with manufacturing skills who have seen their work go overseas a larger deficit would meet household s savings demand relax their budget constraint and i think drive demand that would help put those who produce tradable domestically back to work posted by winterspeak at 5 55 am 4 comments trump brexit and aggregate demand thursday september 08 2016 iphone 7 if there s anyone ready to ditch the audio jack it s me my car has excellent bluetooth connectivity which i use to listen to podcasts during my commute and the rest of the time i use bose s excellent bluetooth noise cancelling headphones which also have outstanding connectivity i have an outstanding dual subs high sensitivity speakers class a amp etc hi fi system that i stream music to digitally not via an analog cable to my iphone so i really am done with cables and yet i don t like apple s cable port it s flaky and it s hard to get reasonably priced peripherals they will also change it so i don t want to invest in any part of the eco system similarly for headphones apple s focus on hardware software integration means that whatever bluetooth variant they come up with will be beats exclusive and beats suck there s a brand mismatch between beats which are stylish for those who don t know better and apple which contra the 4chan crowd are stylish for those who do know better if apple had bought grado it would be a different story but they bought beats so i do not want any part of any eco system that pushes me to beats most importantly i see no benefit from losing the jack they say it frees up space but the stereo sound is i m sorry to say ridiculous and if they wanted space they could have gotten rid of the useless second speaker anyway i am due for an upgrade but maybe it will just be a new case and a battery change i will wait the next cycle out for something useful like wireless charging or fast charging and see what happens to the analog hole posted by winterspeak at 8 51 pm 1 comments iphone 7 tuesday june 28 2016 brexit and markets the s p is down about 5 from it s high dramatic but no big deal compared to the 50 drop in 2008 the broad selloff is being attributable to brexit specifically the poorer growth prospects for the uk the eu and general economic uncertainty i don t this market prices reflect any of those things i think they reflect bad bets margin calls and homogeneity across hedge funds i m sure many hedge funds were long sterling or betting one way or another that brexit would not happen basically a merger arb play at the transnational political level when the merger didn t happen or more specifically when the divestment did happen they lost money and thus needed to make margin calls to make margin calls they sold what they had which was basically everything else selling stuff drives the price down since they are all making the same bets and charging 2 and 20 for it they all sell the same stuff and prices move together note that all of this has no connection to the uk and eu individual countries particularly those as large as the uk can survive perfectly well whether they are part of a broader agreement or not canada and the us trade is a good model for the uk and the eu the economic prospects for the uk depends on how well it can stimulate it s economy through deficit spending and return to something closer to full employment that will probably help make the national mood there more generous as well posted by winterspeak at 12 34 pm 1 comments brexit and markets thursday june 23 2016 brexit although markets are down i don t think brexit will be bad for the british economy indeed i think that it will be a boon a major structural issue in the eu monetary union was that individual countries no longer had their own currency but there was no entity such as a us s federal reserve which could run deficits to support any nation whose desire for savings outstripped available savings this triggered paradox of thrift conditions where austerity drove deficits higher demanding more austerity the price was paid in human misery and unemployment and it was totally wasteful totally destructive and totally unnecessary greece may not be a well governed country but the human cost in forced unemployment and underemployment was high and not only brought no benefit but could not bring any benefit as zizek would say austerity was the german superego run amok the uk can now run deficits denominated in the pound sterling keep its population employed and try to run its country for its citizens as best it can to the extent it is allowed to good luck to all posted by winterspeak at 9 29 pm 4 comments brexit thursday june 09 2016 short facebook long apple apple is going to add paid ads to app store searches currently most of the money fb makes especially on mobile is on mobile ads most of that money is from game companies who desperately need installs but cannot buy installs via apple because apple doesn t sell them fb is the only media company with enough reach on mobile and enough people on its app looking to kill time that you can buy the installs you need by marketing through them the strategy is to buy enough installs to get into the top 10 and then hope the game is popular enough with sufficient retention that you can stay in that top 10 by scaling back your spending and using the organic installs chart position gets you apple s most popular free games category works exactly the same way as the free online games keyword works on google com this is all incredibly inefficient companies would rather just pay apple instead of this crazy bank shot where fb gets paid apple s rankings get played and no one believes in the editorial neutrality which is real on the apple app store home page apple cut out the middle man if they execute this right they should just absorb all of fb s mobile ad revenue short facebook posted by winterspeak at 10 51 pm 1 comments short facebook long apple tuesday april 19 2016 apple might start charging for app store placement apple s app store is a strange beast app store placement drives discovery and is a key channel for companies to get downloads if your game is in the top 10 free games list on the app store it will be downloaded this mechanism is programatic and companies game it by spending a lot of money to drive downloads once they have driven enough downloads to get into the top 10 it s much cheaper to keep the game there as organic downloads will spike meaning you need fewer paid downloads to maintain your overall download number and therefore rating however apple will not accept money for driving a download so developers pay facebook instead facebook is the best scale driver of downloads for mobile apps so the money developers want to pay to market their app on the apple app store is instead going to facebook because there is nowhere else for it to go ironically apple s attempt to break this dynamic is to promote apps on their app store homepage editorially editors pick what s great and showcase it however customers think that those legitimate free editorially driven choices are in fact paid placement so apple tried to take the high ground doesn t get credit for it from customers and sends a lot of money inefficiently to facebook maybe that will change apple inc has constructed a secret team to explore changes to the app store including a new strategy for charging developers to have their apps more prominently displayed according to people familiar with the plans the app store isn t broken but app discovery is there is no reason why the best way to get your app infant of the right potential customer is to pay facebook to market it based on look alike s amongst cat pictures if apple cracks this but it will be a huge business potentially adwords huge and most of that money will come from menlo park posted by winterspeak at 8 05 am 0 comments apple might start charging for app store placement wednesday january 20 2016 fork bitcoin i don t have a dog in the bitcoin fight but it s worth reading fred wilson s post for his invested perspective i ve been writing about the bitcoin blocksize debate here at avc the only place i write and i m hard core about that for the past year it s a big deal at the core of the debate is whether the bitcoin blockchain should be a settlement layer that supports a number of new blockchains that can be scaled to achieve various goals or whether the bitcoin blockchain itself should evolve in a way that it can scale to achieve those various goals in my simple mind i liken it to this should bitcoin be gold or should bitcoin be visa if it is gold it s a store of wealth and something to peg value to if it is visa then its a transactional network that can move wealth around the globe in a nanosecond my understanding is that the politics of bitcoin set is up as gold initially i ve written elsewhere about why i think this model of money is incorrect based on gold standard thinking instead of understanding money as a way to track obligation or balance sheet thinking bitcoin s value is from its distributed ledger technology the blockchain not particulars of how bitcoin itself will or will not scale ultimately structurally it cannot be a store of value i don t know if fred is on the gold or visa side but personally i think visa is more likely to be valuable than gold posted by winterspeak at 3 16 pm 4 comments fork bitcoin wednesday december 23 2015 nonsense about the apple headphone jack i don t know whether apple will remove the headphone jack from the next iphone or not but this slate article has made to write about it and link to them well played sir what i do know is that this doesn t seem to make much sense lightning is a superior connector compared to the existing 3 5 mm audio jack in the iphone because it s digital that means the iphone s software could fine tune the way headphones sound like an equalizer an app like spotify could also be programmed to open whenever you plug in headphones if a digital signal is transmitted via lightning it just means that the digital to audio converter dac needs to be somewhere in the headphone instead of in the device there may be benefits in isolating the dac from other microprocessors in the phone but i m not that much of an audiophile and frankly apple s iphone dac is pretty good already however since the iphone already has a dac and that the music it plays is digital it means that it can iphone software can already fine tune the way headphones sound in fact it already has an equalizer the primary reason to remove the 3 5mm jack would be to make the iphone thinner still my preference would be that apple keeps the iphone the same thickness but does something about the case i need to wrap it in so it doesn t break the case adds more size to the iphone than apple can remove and an integrated solution might be better and smaller than what customers do now posted by winterspeak at 1 46 pm 0 comments nonsense about the apple headphone jack tuesday december 22 2015 fed raising rates looks like the fed is raising rates and this wsj article goes through winners and losers there s another way to think about it though firstly orthodox macro has lower rates as simulative because it encourages borrowing which comes concomitantly with spending however when you are in a balance sheet recession with an overly leveraged economy then this additional borrowing doesn t happen which has been the story in the us since 2008 and in japan since about 1985 more specifically the leveraged stimulant that lower rates drive comes essentially from residential housing and the mortgage market prices remain high on the coasts and people have all the house they need elsewhere with a weak labor market stagnant wages and generally poor business demand i don t think households are ready to leverage up or have the cash to go long er housing secondly on the flip side higher interest rates mean more interest income and income is what remains missing in this economy 0 25 isn t much but it s better than zirp and while i see this as being too small to have much of an impact it is mildly simulative more broadly as mosler points out the fed should really leave interest rates at zero permanently there s no purpose to them it would take all the profit out of the bond speculation market and most importantly it would focus stimulus on the channel which is actually capable of delivering it fiscal posted by winterspeak at 10 57 am 0 comments fed raising rates saturday november 07 2015 ipo as down round square has gone public seeking a target valuation of about 4b down materially from it s 6b round in 2014 what this means depends entirely on the clause in it s cap table it s quite likely that later investors who put money in at 6b have provisions that protect their investment they will likely be getting all of their money out and maybe even making a profit earlier investors may be sitting on more gains and lik...