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x curmudgeon november 2012 skip to main skip to sidebar x curmudgeon a blog about politics current events and consumer culture saturday november 03 2012 early voting poll results for 2012 one of the more interesting election innovations in recent years is the advent of early voting early voting rules vary considerably from state to state many states now allow no excuse in person voting meaning that unlike traditional absentee voting you don t need a reason such as being out of town to vote early at selected polling places as much as a month before election day other states allow voters to mail in their ballots and some have loosened their rules on absentee voting political science prof michael mcdonald at george mason university has been tracking early voting in recent years he estimates that 41 million americans voted before election day in the 2008 presidential campaign and that even more will do so in 2012 while prof mcdonald has done an excellent job tracking data from the states on early voters a logical question is who benefits the most from early voting in 2008 the curmudgeon supplemented prof mcdonald s work by tracking pre election polls that reported results for the subsets of their samples who had already voted in 2008 early voting clearly benefitted obama and the democrats or perhaps it simply reflected the enthusiasm for obama that led to his large victory over john mccain now in 2012 we re once again tracking the pre election polls and excerpting the data on early voters below you ll find the data organized in reverse chronological order for national polls and for each state in which there is data available primarily swing states as that s where most of the polls are conducted we hope you ll find the data useful new results in each update are highlighted in yellow at this point in the election it is clear that at least in swing states obama is again benefitting from the early vote but not to the same extent as in 2008 just further confirming evidence that this is going to be a much closer election winning the early vote doesn t mean winning the election but it does reduce the amount of get out the vote work that needs to be done on election day and avoids some problems such as bad weather that can reduce turnout on election day we think that over time this poll data will be valuable in analyzing election trends note we had a glitch with blogger as a result of which we lost quite a bit of data we ve done our best to recreate what we can but some poll data is probably missing especially during the period between oct 20 nov 1 national polls nov 4 5 gwu politico 33 already voted 36 of romney supporters and 33 of obama supporters not sure what this really means nov 3 5 rasmussen already voted 43 dem 35 rep nov 3 5 gravis 28 already voted obama 52 romney 44 nov 1 5 ipsos daily tracking 41 of likely voters already voted obama 51 romney 45 nov 1 4 daily kos 23 already voted obama 53 romney 47 nov 1 4 democracy corps 23 already voted no breakdown by preference oct 31 nov 4 ipsos daily tracking 33 already voted obama 51 romney 45 nov 5 abc wapo 27 of national sample have voted 35 have voted in eight swing states oct 31 nov 4 pew research 34 already voted obama 48 romney 46 oct 29 nov 1 gwu battleground 26 of sample has already voted no breakdown oct 29 31 wash times jz analytics 25 already voted obama 53 romney 45 oct 22 24 ipsos daily tracking 17 of sample already voted obama 53 romney 42 oct 21 abc news wash post 4 of sample already voted no breakdown of presidential preferences of those voters oct 18 21 monmouth 12 of sample already voted obama 41 romney 44 note this is the only poll we ve seen in 2012 or 2008 in which the republican candidate had a lead in national early voting oct 15 19 ipsos daily tracking 10 of sample already voted obama 56 romney 39 oct 14 18 ipsos daily tracking 10 of sample already voted obama 53 romney 44 for comparison the earliest national poll with such data in 2008 was conducted oct 25 28 in it 18 of respondents had already voted favoring obama by 53 43 the final national polls taken in nov 2008 showed obama up from between 1 and 19 with 20 36 of the samples having already voted colorado early voting nov 3 5 ipsos 76 already voted obama 55 romney 42 nov 2 4 keating 69 already voted no breakdown of early voter preferences nov 1 3 ipsos 60 already voted obama 50 romney 43 oct 31 nov 2 ipsos 60 already voted obama 51 romney 43 oct 31 survey usa voted obama 49 romney 46 oct 29 31 ipsos 61 already voted obama 50 romney 43 oct 29 rasmussen 69 already voted obama 50 romney 47 oct 25 28 arg 31 already voted obama 47 romney 52 oct 23 24 purple poll 40 already voted obama 58 romney 32 for comparison a poll taken by public policy polling in 2008 as of nov 1 showed that 65 had already voted favoring obama by 58 41 over mccain florida early voting nov 4 5 gravis 50 already voted obama 52 romney 47 nov 3 5 ipsos 51 already voted obama 51 romney 44 oct 30 nov 2 mellman 48 already voted obama 51 romney 41 nov 1 3 ipsos 42 already voted obama 51 romney 46 oct 31 nov 2 ipsos 38 already voted obama 52 romney 45 oct 31 quinnipiac already voted obama 50 romney 44 oct 29 31 ipsos 35 already voted obama 53 romney 45 oct 25 27 survey usa 23 already voted obama 57 romney 42 for comparison the final survey usa poll taken in florida in 2008 over the three days before the election showed that 58 had already voted by a margin of 58 40 in favor of obama georgia early voting nov 1 better georgia 46 already voted no breakdown of preferences of early voters oct 25 27 survey usa 28 already voted obama 48 romney 51 indiana early voting nov 1 rasmussen 20 already voted obama 49 romney 47 iowa early voting nov 2 4 arg 44 already voted obama 54 romney 46 nov 3 4 public policy polling 47 already voted obama 61 romney 39 nov 1 2 grove already voted obama 59 romney 33 oct 30 nov 1 mellman 41 already voted obama 51 romney 36 nov 1 gravis 34 already voted obama 63 romney 28 oct 30 rasmussen 42 of sample already voted obama 56 romney 39 oct 29 30 public policy polling 42 already voted obama 64 romney 35 oct 21 rasmussen 31 of sample had already voted obama 56 romney 41 oct 17 19 ppp 31 of sample had already voted obama 66 romney 32 oct 18 nbc wsj 34 of likely voters and 28 of registered voters have already voted no breakdown of who they voted for for comparison in 2008 survey usa conducted a poll on oct 29 at which point 32 had already voted with obama leading 69 29 michigan early voting nov 4 mitchell surveys 33 already voted obama 57 romney 41 oct 31 nov 1 grove voted obama 49 romney 39 montana early voting oct 29 rasmussen 49 already voted obama 49 romney 46 nevada early voting nov 3 4 public policy polling 74 already voted obama 55 romney 44 oct 23 29 survey usa 43 already voted obama 52 romney 46 oct 22 24 public policy polling 34 already voted obama 61 romney 39 oct 23 rasmussen 35 already voted obama 51 romney 47 for comparison in 2008 roper conducted a poll on oct 22 26 in which 51 of nevadans had already voted favoring obama by 56 33 over mccain new hampshire early voting nov 1 gravis 6 already voted obama 63 romney 37 new jersey early voting oct 19 survey usa 19 of sample already voted obama 63 romney 29 north carolina early voting nov 4 5 gravis 52 already voted obama 49 romney 47 nov 3 4 public policy polling 62 already voted obama 54 romney 45 oct 29 31 public policy polling 52 already voted obama 58 romney 41 oct 29 30 survey usa 40 already voted obama 56 romney 43 oct 23 25 public policy polling 30 already voted obama 57 romney 42 oct 21 26 elon u 22 already voted obama 55 romney 37 for comparison in 2008 the final poll for survey usa had 57 already voting with obama up 56 41 and the final public policy polling survey had 63 already voting with obama up 55 45 this is one of the few states where obama may be running ahead of his 2008 early voting totals pennsylvania early voting nov 4 5 gravis 3 already voted obama 61 romney 31 ohio early voting nov 4 5 gravis 30 already voted obama 55 romney 42 nov 3 5 ipsos 38 already voted obama 59 romney 37 nov 4 rasmussen 40 already voted obama 60 romney 37 nov 3 4 public policy polling 34 already voted obama 60 romney 39 nov 1 4 survey usa 33 already voted obama 58 romney 38 nov 1 3 ipsos 36 already voted obama 61 romney 33 oct 24 nov 3 columbus dispatch 37 already voted obama 57 romney 42 nov 1 2 grove already voted obama 56 romney 39 oct 31 nov 2 ipsos 33 already voted obama 59 romney 35 oct 30 nov 1 cnn already voted obama 63 romney 35 nov 1 rasmussen 40 already voted obama 56 romney 41 oct 30 nov 1 cnn already voted obama 63 romney 35 oct 26 29 survey usa 25 already voted obama 56 romney 40 oct 29 31 ipsos 32 already voted obama 60 romney 32 oct 29 30 public policy polling 33 already voted obama 62 romney 35 oct 29 30 cbs quinnipiac voted obama 60 romney 34 oct 28 rasmussen 32 already voted obama 62 romney 36 note not sure how to square this result with the rasmussen poll just three days earlier oct 25 rasmussen 35 already voted obama 52 romney 46 oct 23 25 arg 28 already voted obama 55 romney 44 oct 23 25 purple strategies 26 already voted obama 58 romney 32 oct 25 cnn 59 expect to vote early no breakdown beyond that obama 59 romney 39 oct 23 rasmussen 31 already voted obama 53 romney 43 oct 22 23 time 20 already voted obama 60 romney 30 oct 20 22 survey usa 26 already voted obama 58 romney 39 oct 21 suffolk univ 20 already voted obama 54 romney 41 oct 21 cbs news 20 already voted obama 54 romney 39 oct 18 20 public policy polling 21 already voted obama 66 romney 34 oct 16 survey usa 18 already voted obama 57 romney 38 oct 12 13 public policy polling 19 already voted obama 76 romney 24 oct 5 8 survey usa 11 of sample had already voted obama 59 romney 39 by comparison the final survey usa poll in ohio in 2008 reported that 36 of ohioans had already voted favoring obama by 60 36 over mccain obama ultimately carried ohio by 51 47 virginia early voting nov 3 5 ipsos 14 already voted obama 59 romney 39 nov 1 2 nbc wsj 15 already voted obama 59 romney 38 oct 30 nov 2 mellman 10 already voted obama 53 romney 38 nov 1 3 ipsos 11 already voted obama 53 romney 43 oct 31 nov 2 ipsos 10 already voted obama 51 romney 45 oct 29 31 ipsos 13 already voted obama 68 romney 30 oct 23 25 purple strategies 9 already voted obama 47 romney 51 for comparison the final public policy polling survey in virginia in 2008 had 16 already voting with obama up by 63 36 over mccain washington early voting oct 18 31 kcts tv 33 already voted obama 60 romney 37 for comparison in 2008 survey usa s final poll in washington had 72 already voting with obama leading by 58 39 over mccain wisconsin early voting oct 30 31 rasmussen 25 already voted obama 56 romney 41 oct 18 rasmussen already voted rasmussen doesn t say what of sample had already voted obama 43 romney 54 by comparison as of oct 29 in 2008 a survey usa poll had 19 of wisconsinites already voting by a margin of 61 34 for obama posted by x curmudgeon at 2 26 pm 1 comment newer posts older posts home subscribe to posts atom landstrike terrifyingly realistic landstrike s fan box landstrike on facebook blogs we like bacon s rebellion barticles belly of the beast blognet news virginia blue commonwealth blue dog blueweeds craig s musings daily whack job forbard howling latina johnny camacho monkey girl not larry sabato nova middleman random acts of insensitivity the direction the green miles tidewater musings vb dems virginia political blogs virginia progressive vivian paige waldo jaquith what s up arlington sites we like james webb for senate born fighting senator webb daily kos truthout how to save electricity politics 1 real clear politics home microturbine wind generator ace green challenge nova home solar energy nathalie dupree building an affordable solar home followers about me x curmudgeon in summer 05 after 21 years of law practice in a large firm i quit to pursue my true passion writing i m 51 years old married with two children boys ages 12 and 15 i watch too much television read too many newspapers and magazines and have too much time on my hands i love politics and i hate lousy service and crummy products and bad science in april 2009 my first book landstrike was published landstrike is the gripping story of hurricane nicole from its birth in the atlantic ocean to its catastrophic rampage up new york city s hudson river the book is available from xlibris press xlibris com i hope you ll find something entertaining or inspiring on my blog view my complete profile blog archive 2017 2 may 2 2016 2 october 2 2015 5 december 4 august 1 2014 8 april 1 february 2 january 5 2012 10 november 1 early voting poll results for 2012 october 4 july 1 june 1 february 1 january 2 2011 43 december 1 november 5 october 2 september 2 august 5 june 1 may 2 april 1 march 11 february 5 january 8 2010 96 december 8 november 5 october 2 september 7 august 2 july 4 june 6 may 9 april 7 march 10 february 15 january 21 2009 199 december 11 november 12 october 10 september 13 august 11 july 10 june 20 may 24 april 14 march 23 february 26 january 25 2008 422 december 28 november 30 october 65 september 40 august 30 july 17 june 12 may 30 april 34 march 24 february 44 january 68 2007 392 december 56 november 52 october 29 september 26 august 21 july 17 june 29 may 47 april 31 march 38 february 21 january 25 2006 170 december 19 november 27 october 19 september 21 august 13 july 9 june 27 may 24 april 11