Meta tags:
Headings (most frequently used words):
april, 2015, the, wednesday, sunday, savings, and, economics, thursday, tuesday, monday, saturday, friday, of, new, arthurian, debt, excessive, john, munro, an, money, how, much, is, looking, for, he, ending, so, on, at, accumulation, google, translate, blog, archive, links, labels, 30, 29, 28, 27, 26, 22, 21, 20, 19, 18, 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, keynesian, 10, chief, object, debasement, think, just, finessing, idea, from, archives, finance, ceteris, paribus, economy, rogoff, cycles, optimism, interesting, detail, components, m2, in, historical, federal, workforce, still, something, definite, thinks, grumpy, it, ain, sociology, 101, alternate, josh, hendrickson, asks, good, question, inflexible, trends, cluelessness, focus, expectation, little, evidence, hand, also, year, problem, mendacity, fred, tangent, do, you, measure, success, working, interest, into, mix,
Text of the page (most frequently used words):
the (728), and (256), that (255), for (116), money (95), debt (89), you (81), but (72), savings (68), was (64), with (60), have (58), not (57), year (57), graph (54), from (52), this (51), are (51), can (46), interest (43), more (43), than (43), inflation (39), there (38), fred (37), like (36), line (36), april (35), all (34), don (34), they (34), value (33), when (33), then (33), red (32), see (31), one (30), #arthurian (29), say (29), people (29), because (29), what (29), 2015 (28), years (27), 2009 (27), economy (27), comments (26), total (26), real (26), out (26), into (26), numbers (26), think (26), make (25), posted (25), just (25), blue (25), much (25), now (24), how (24), economic (24), time (24), problem (24), know (24), maybe (24), series (23), gross (23), gdp (22), growth (22), future (22), only (21), may (21), things (21), look (20), other (20), about (20), income (20), saving (20), want (19), would (19), number (19), same (19), data (19), here (18), calculation (18), new (18), might (18), financial (18), assets (18), cost (18), deposits (18), show (17), graphs (16), dollar (16), does (16), has (16), stock (16), thought (16), good (16), rogoff (16), dollars (15), something (15), get (15), were (15), shows (15), too (15), will (15), smith (15), barter (15), well (14), looking (14), our (14), few (14), prices (14), before (14), right (14), still (14), post (14), which (14), federal (13), back (13), use (13), since (13), less (13), accumulated (13), why (13), lower (13), even (13), also (13), different (13), makes (13), their (13), hendrickson (13), rate (13), present (13), finance (13), deflation (13), munro (13), after (12), world (12), measure (12), where (12), price (12), change (12), thing (12), those (12), his (12), find (12), argument (12), had (12), policy (12), singular (12), def (12), flow (11), 2013 (11), most (11), really (11), did (11), sure (11), december (11), view (11), five (10), cents (10), each (10), two (10), course (10), march (10), any (10), small (10), first (10), didn (10), some (10), long (10), such (10), link (10), question (10), says (10), vast (10), class (10), times (10), october (10), gold (10), credit (10), january (10), pay (9), shown (9), zero (9), doesn (9), way (9), away (9), divide (9), higher (9), started (9), today (9), already (9), work (9), should (9), ending (9), start (9), based (9), point (9), focus (9), starts (9), demand (9), crisis (9), plural (9), page (9), supercycle (9), stagnation (9), john (9), february (9), june (9), july (9), august (9), september (9), november (9), between (8), shortfall (8), expect (8), could (8), been (8), little (8), big (8), going (8), come (8), base (8), using (8), easy (8), made (8), sense (8), expectations (8), very (8), words (8), natural (8), spend (8), funds (8), found (8), notes (8), percent (8), component (8), coinage (8), coined (8), him (7), borrow (7), paid (7), need (7), better (7), accumulation (7), adjustment (7), many (7), added (7), dividing (7), lot (7), actual (7), lines (7), got (7), domestic (7), them (7), recent (7), nothing (7), these (7), end (7), current (7), economics (7), trend (7), off (7), conclusion (7), adam (7), paying (7), trillion (7), spending (7), components (7), cycle (7), secular (7), optimism (7), debasement (7), nominal (6), payments (6), created (6), equal (6), type (6), adjusted (6), result (6), true (6), again (6), its (6), household (6), stuff (6), enough (6), down (6), remember (6), attention (6), jim (6), thinking (6), day (6), part (6), reason (6), yesterday (6), increase (6), put (6), while (6), term (6), take (6), excessive (6), 2014 (6), 1967 (6), noticed (6), trends (6), bound (6), rates (6), quantity (6), among (6), market (6), monetary (6), least (6), account (6), learned (6), definition (6), historical (6), read (6), exports (6), trade (6), medieval (6), bank (5), newer (5), consider (5), principal (5), standard (5), variable (5), during (5), wrong (5), over (5), let (5), old (5), changes (5), goes (5), cross (5), left (5), median (5), reasons (5), difference (5), took (5), pretty (5), version (5), writing (5), private (5), head (5), blog (5), another (5), comment (5), expected (5), own (5), anyway (5), wanted (5), erosion (5), 2010 (5), great (5), who (5), never (5), retail (5), went (5), brings (5), negative (5), public (5), form (5), supply (5), economist (5), making (5), enhance (5), process (5), looked (5), saw (5), interesting (5), terms (5), profit (5), cochrane (5), government (5), circulation (5), friedman (5), stf (5), given (5), transactions (5), employment (5), period (5), increased (5), professor (5), age (5), metal (5), louis (4), fed (4), posts (4), suppose (4), repaid (4), gap (4), rather (4), friday (4), success (4), means (4), 2012 (4), calculated (4), includes (4), effects (4), stripped (4), pieces (4), recession (4), bigger (4), looks (4), top (4), gives (4), almost (4), previous (4), able (4), values (4), 1947 (4), sunday (4), sometimes (4), demanding (4), reading (4), being (4), always (4), tell (4), mind (4), measures (4), hey (4), your (4), later (4), trying (4), size (4), figure (4), 1962 (4), ago (4), mean (4), wednesday (4), upon (4), writes (4), existing (4), facts (4), confident (4), situation (4), definite (4), rule (4), quite (4), simply (4), past (4), evidence (4), steve (4), believe (4), output (4), default (4), cannot (4), 1949 (4), above (4), otherwise (4), asks (4), model (4), takes (4), general (4), likely (4), inequality (4), suddenly (4), greater (4), particular (4), preference (4), grew (4), table (4), capital (4), distinctions (4), around (4), factors (4), common (4), bearing (4), somebody (4), banks (4), 2008 (4), useful (4), without (4), produce (4), portion (4), national (4), billions (4), seen (4), broad (4), commonly (4), links (4), exchange (4), balances (4), google (4), modern (4), denomination (4), article (4), civilization (4), chronic (4), deleveraging (4), goods (4), ceteris (4), paribus (4), object (4), archive (4), silver (4), precious (4), scarcities (4), lead (3), borrowed (3), comparing (3), amounts (3), ten (3), worth (3), received (3), lender (3), word (3), reasonable (3), working (3), best (3), star (3), trek (3), dredd (3), saturday (3), mostly (3), removed (3), under (3), must (3), confusing (3), adjust (3), works (3), until (3), smaller (3), faster (3), next (3), product (3), labels (3), used (3), high (3), four (3), push (3), responses (3), write (3), along (3), yeah (3), hit (3), soon (3), mistake (3), calculations (3), laid (3), creditor (3), loss (3), feel (3), breaking (3), borrowing (3), help (3), fix (3), earliest (3), 1960 (3), gonna (3), correctly (3), hope (3), doing (3), starting (3), thursday (3), came (3), finegold (3), though (3), thoughts (3), below (3), opening (3), kates (3), central (3), beyond (3), krugman (3), keynesian (3), cluelessness (3), reaches (3), dates (3), runs (3), add (3), leave (3), area (3), blank (3), white (3), showing (3), both (3), last (3), call (3), bad (3), josh (3), important (3), turned (3), preferences (3), answer (3), provision (3), stored (3), hands (3), consensus (3), arise (3), curve (3), monday (3), wasn (3), weak (3), approach (3), large (3), policymakers (3), create (3), tuesday (3), economists (3), three (3), man (3), labor (3), anything (3), notion (3), rising (3), classes (3), distinguished (3), wages (3), payment (3), milton (3), simple (3), 100 (3), deposit (3), united (3), states (3), consists (3), mmdas (3), thrifts (3), image (3), download (3), forget (3), personnel (3), history (3), depository (3), institutions (3), name (3), cause (3), introductory (3), vox (3), downs (3), pattern (3), reduced (3), global (3), cycles (3), borio (3), fireworks (3), expensive (3), competitive (3), consequences (3), costs (3), profits (3), balance (3), nixon (3), causes (3), sequence (3), volume (3), coin (3), coinages (3), stage (3), theory (3), coins (3), debase (3), oresme (3), merchants (3), prince (3), chief (3), timeline (3), productivity (3), reserve (2), 2016 (2), org (2), older (2), annually (2), recently (2), specifically (2), pass (2), open (2), office (2), mix (2), itself (2), known (2), chronicles (2), riddick (2), karl (2), activity (2), hand (2), outstanding (2), prior (2), addition (2), remove (2), separate (2), piece (2), accurate (2), perhaps (2), often (2), certainly (2), incorrect (2), problems (2), matter (2), company (2), pie (2), war (2), set (2), increases (2), rid (2), divided (2), across (2), disposable (2), personal (2), slope (2), isn (2), buy (2), seem (2), multiply (2), shift (2), flat (2), mendacity (2), tangent (2), dogs (2), corrected (2), forced (2), hard (2), pointed (2), couple (2), brain (2), speed (2), unlike (2), willing (2), accept (2), fitting (2), comes (2), debtors (2), plan (2), clarify (2), myself (2), obvious (2), debtor (2), totals (2), saying (2), concept (2), exactly (2), outcome (2), anonymous (2), mistaken (2), 1961 (2), except (2), expecting (2), run (2), late (2), correct (2), check (2), calcs (2), following (2), seems (2), definitely (2), dataset (2), mine (2), wrote (2), equipment (2), largely (2), irrelevant (2), partly (2), assume (2), issue (2), practice (2), truth (2), convention (2), state (2), continue (2), far (2), specific (2), keynes (2), oriented (2), expectation (2), broken (2), window (2), fallacy (2), probably (2), plot (2), space (2), 1966 (2), guys (2), date (2), reverse (2), order (2), laugh (2), ends (2), death (2), inflexible (2), talk (2), debate (2), questions (2), gets (2), imagine (2), ideas (2), rest (2), quoted (2), bit (2), happens (2), depends (2), majority (2), kind (2), allows (2), everyone (2), bulk (2), valuation (2), arrive (2), others (2), easier (2), explain (2), equilibrium (2), perfect (2), holds (2), warfare (2), yes (2), keep (2), prefer (2), avoid (2), eventually (2), early (2), capitalism (2), drive (2), continued (2), grow (2), contributed (2), experience (2), policies (2), changed (2), grown (2), once (2), becomes (2), apply (2), describe (2), creates (2), alternate (2), chart (2), dammit (2), column (2), considered (2), focused (2), owners (2), resources (2), land (2), begin (2), everything (2), business (2), types (2), person (2), receive (2), regulating (2), sorts (2), belong (2), readily (2), rent (2), ain (2), 101 (2), sociology (2), underlying (2), low (2), forever (2), quoting (2), dreamed (2), spent (2), collecting (2), arrangement (2), failed (2), inside (2), agreements (2), short (2), paper (2), suffering (2), free (2), thinks (2), grumpy (2), noun (2), putting (2), compare (2), gni (2), similar (2), passbook (2), offering (2), roth (2), proxy (2), biggest (2), 2011 (2), wikipedia (2), side (2), green (2), clicking (2), 1000 (2), relation (2), art (2), etc (2), branch (2), military (2), click (2), million (2), stuck (2), population (2), spreadsheet (2), era (2), workforce (2), datasets (2), 1970s (2), counted (2), ordinarily (2), mutual (2), stdsl (2), rmfsl (2), m2sl (2), investment (2), 000 (2), savingsl (2), accounts (2), illiquid (2), included (2), retirement (2), detail (2), reinhart (2), ken (2), analysis (2), fits (2), continues (2), cyclical (2), unexplained (2), due (2), circular (2), near (2), leverage (2), peaks (2), rose (2), decline (2), headwinds (2), subside (2), prove (2), extrapolations (2), performance (2), suggest (2), phase (2), views (2), crises (2), moving (2), main (2), average (2), falling (2), stable (2), scope (2), consumers (2), share (2), imbalance (2), 1971 (2), kennedy (2), ultimately (2), according (2), decade (2), export (2), context (2), strong (2), raising (2), wealth (2), archives (2), ignorance (2), liked (2), economies (2), sequences (2), patterns (2), repeating (2), rely (2), vastly (2), move (2), transition (2), development (2), patently (2), unhistorical (2), sole (2), medium (2), merely (2), transaction (2), finessing (2), idea (2), farther (2), governments (2), currency (2), gain (2), explanation (2), motive (2), foreign (2), bullion (2), mints (2), debasements (2), power (2), final (2), 2018 (2), taxes (2), sumner (2), loops (2), laffer (2), jerry (2), banking (2), dave (2), ross (2), translate (2), html (2), blogger (2), charts (2), tax (2), pdf (2), venn (2), rights, reserved, appear, courtesy, http, research, stlouisfed, fred2, horse, water, drink, stay, thirsty, friends, subscribe, atom, home, lump, sum, ratios, fill, remain, reduces, shortened, example, lent, assumes, inflationary, assumption, cough, count, browser, successfully, deleted, interrupted, updated, playing, éomer, second, third, installments, peter, jackson, lord, rings, trilogy, leonard, bones, mccoy, darkness, cupid, julius, caesar, xena, warrior, princess, kirill, bourne, supremacy, vaako, judge, film, urban, effect, straightforward, represents, consideration, split, totaled, sounds, leads, conclusions, strip, continuously, ones, remains, place, titles, evident, border, mid, 1980s, slick, trick, weren, fooled, 059, 777, title, text, heck, redo, 1991, sucker, moved, flatten, block, play, listen, radio, car, introvert, interferes, wife, excuses, regularly, keeping, alive, thank, gene, callahan, asshole, guess, weeks, criticism, excellent, fact, resolved, getting, acclimated, soak, fit, direct, wow, lumber, yard, burned, erodes, equally, worse, creditors, fills, fascinate, difficult, worked, became, responsible, loosely, hang, contributes, key, funky, yearly, additions, figuring, instead, idiot, deflator, peel, previously, showed, needed, leaving, confusion, thanks, listening, owes, inflate, indicates, removes, coincidentally, solves, discussed, floating, jonathan, spin, considerations, prospective, yields, certain, events, forecasted, confidence, foolish, forming, attach, weight, matters, uncertain, therefore, guided, considerable, degree, somewhat, decisively, relevant, knowledge, vague, scanty, enter, disproportionately, formation, usual, project, modified, extent, tacitly, agreed, fall, essence, lies, assuming, affairs, indefinitely, embodies, titled, excerpt, rich, grateful, insane, idiocy, completely, ridiculous, bizarre, utter, nonsense, stupid, provided, skousen, howler, heights, establishes, display, computer, anymore, plotted, spaces, m1adj, sweeps, feature, happened, routine, code, forgot, funny, knew, described, scratch, dozen, hell, straight, embarrassingly, excel, tfaabshno, points, permeated, defines, sets, skip, pulls, okay, models, chopped, tweak, wording, predominate, invalidate, opinions, round, decisions, restate, accommodate, handful, accomplish, sentence, creeps, quietly, tipping, notice, essentially, unchanged, live, preparing, widely, equitably, distributed, shares, hold, comprehend, latter, develop, precedence, conspiracy, agreement, shared, interests, standing, highly, accumulate, strengthened, sudden, luck, ourselves, financially, naturally, predominant, horizontal, conditions, mathematically, imply, define, markets, information, perfectly, flexible, tight, everyday, deal, rebuttal, deny, engaging, denial, arguments, altogether, developed, gradually, began, days, effectively, forward, seemed, undermining, slowdown, taught, further, ineffectiveness, device, obtaining, overrides, dominant, applies, wants, begins, harm, belief, damage, done, inevitable, item, said, differences, groups, workers, evaluate, schumpeter, shall, aristocracy, commoners, category, busyness, importance, caught, swing, realistic, categories, various, identified, sociologist, revenue, persons, confounded, language, concession, talks, propose, structure, perpetual, coupons, himself, mmm, every, sitting, settled, meanwhile, gave, invented, electronic, overnight, repurchase, commercial, fulfills, 1969, optimal, satiated, liquidity, solution, concise, statement, verb, act, stockpile, adopted, terminology, half, adheres, clear, brief, annual, corresponds, track, backward, twice, recall, ever, progress, close, follows, note, 1000000000, converts, anybody, percentage, winterspeak, pretending, innuendo, bothered, skipped, wander, happy, pondering, subtract, method, estimates, unfortunately, figured, trust, indexmundi, clip, 188, 2008q4, 225, 2012q3, 269, 2014q1, draw, asset, friggin, linked, related, equilibrium007, prize, clicked, summary, section, description, source, program, somewhere, package, review, borrowers, lenders, reaching, worry, surely, turn, acts, depositing, loans, nor, sit, attempt, headed, finds, details, fraction, position, yahoo, rutledge, bruited, technically, defined, embodied, counterintuitively, relative, vernacular, bills, aren, embodiments, checking, stocks, bonds, safe, hate, suggests, equals, endless, wrangling, divisias, googling, management, executive, civilians, uniformed, legislative, judicial, search, bother, employees, grabbed, trending, vietnam, returned, vengeance, largest, force, payroll, comfortable, obviously, wondering, googled, bicentennial, edition, innnovation, mzm, yet, simplify, understand, whether, save, distinction, accessible, adds, switched, letters, record, ballpark, separately, messy, stacked, dark, constructed, weekly, collected, institute, m1sl, plus, include, mmmfs, statistics, significant, individual, ira, keogh, pre, withdrawals, aggregates, heavy, penalties, excludes, ring, bell, principle, science, heads, tails, surprised, downright, topic, catches, eye, paragraph, clarity, contrast, ups, actually, moves, cyclic, return, offers, observes, arose, overall, wide, phrase, knocking, door, adopt, allow, grief, levels, depression, scale, quickly, 2000s, 1920s, deleverage, leaves, room, baseless, comparison, 1929, peak, update, appears, tail, sunk, per, capita, driven, significantly, deficiency, reflect, argue, provides, framework, understanding, transpired, phenomenon, matches, hundred, capture, heart, attack, experienced, slow, demographics, sharp, housing, bubbles, collapses, orthodox, heterodox, suited, greatly, amplified, breakdown, vigorously, pursued, countries, roughly, several, thomas, herndon, falls, kenneth, sidebar, claudio, attached, interested, finishing, response, dove, paragraphs, stronger, affects, offs, confused, unfinished, diffused, puff, smoke, extension, competes, level, persistently, hours, apple, automobile, skyscraper, consumption, raw, material, managerial, oversight, producers, fell, aside, drives, basket, disadvantage, contributing, unfavorable, 1974, attribute, 1960s, johnson, administrations, become, critical, 1950, factor, principles, regulate, parts, commodities, concerns, services, loomed, discussions, muellbauer, shaped, deep, seated, regardless, pathology, stands, sustainable, expansion, however, reflexive, association, weakness, symptom, aggregate, boost, damaging, pushing, unemployment, inducing, delay, beneficial, incomes, empirical, helleiner, fundamental, madness, amongst, students, sexual, frustration, study, wisdom, immediately, stumbled, european, occurred, afraid, emerge, human, nature, throughout, happen, reject, outright, stop, glad, kept, emphasis, toward, confirms, resumption, west, commercialization, producing, believing, mythical, rise, displaced, greco, roman, utilizing, conversely, sophisticated, thus, popular, advanced, 19th, century, german, historians, bruno, hildebrand, deeply, influenced, evolutionary, theories, realize, europe, effecting, pitfall, supposing, recorded, book, register, notations, represent, function, footnote, pointless, frequently, favorite, presents, local, princely, greed, fiscal, encourage, bring, themselves, returning, face, purchasing, content, minted, former, nicholas, 1390, advisor, king, charles, france, dukes, burgundy, opinion, pretends, altering, vain, contemporaries, prime, motivation, mint, revenues, supplies, striking, conscious, deliberate, achieve, goals, virtually, absent, correlated, princes, copyright, arthur, shipman, zoho, withering, shoots, waste, fraud, abuse, verdoorn, urgency, unsustainable, umic, ulc, tot, tongue, cheek, tint, knob, taylor, symmetry, deception, stimulus, deviation, stagflation, spreadsheeting, special, report, slack, simulated, simulacron, serfdom, scott, reviews, reduction, printing, controls, predicting, pfi, parameters, oil, non, linear, tools, motives, multiplier, mmt, math, matched, fekete, malaise, limits, ego, captain, introduction, iceberg, couldn, sleep, humor, hover, craft, hodrick, prescott, hoarding, revisionism, calc, gresham, law, shortage, gds, gang8, fun, mpc, full, disclosure, fpi, digit, financialization, feedback, fcm, composition, failure, embrace, evolution, excuse, eroc, forces, echoes, dpd, disarray, pull, outside, limit, reissue, bulge, recovery, efficiency, coping, civ, calculating, bullard, earthquake, behavioral, finte, artish, adjusting, accidental, discoveries, accelerated, repayment, 400k, smoothing, revision, 1986, 2000, contact, website, tufte, normalized, scaled, mental, workout, numerical, kardi, teknomo, organize, supreme, court, jester, prac, vin, faq, nice, bloogger, within, color, codes, sentral, test, www, schools, menu, host, tips, spoiler, theory2life, irrational, unsettling, oak, redonomics, margin, freshman, dolor, rants, mayday, books, jbpeebles, addicts, anon, frozen, arctic, tundra, blended, purple, candid, troublesome, action, nextblog, skeptical, optimist, worthwhile, canadian, father, tim, duy
Text of the page (random words):
ve kates provided about skousen s gross output the words that were a howler to me was the concept of excessive savings excessive savings insane right who could believe such idiocy that our central economic problem is too much saving completely ridiculous and beyond bizarre utter nonsense how stupid would you have to be to believe such stuff posted by the arthurian at 5 41 pm 4 comments friday april 10 2015 so much focus on expectation so little on evidence at hand came upon this by jonathan finegold keynes point is that expectations are not past oriented thoughts but future oriented thoughts as such past expectations are largely irrelevant in the same post finegold writes the current stock of equipment of course embodies past expectations so the current stock of equipment is largely irrelevant finegold makes my head spin here s keynes the considerations upon which expectations of prospective yields are based are partly existing facts which we can assume to be known more or less for certain and partly future events which can only be forecasted with more or less confidence it would be foolish in forming our expectations to attach great weight to matters which are very uncertain it is reasonable therefore to be guided to a considerable degree by the facts about which we feel somewhat confident even though they may be less decisively relevant to the issue than other facts about which our knowledge is vague and scanty for this reason the facts of the existing situation enter in a sense disproportionately into the formation of our long term expectations our usual practice being to take the existing situation and to project it into the future modified only to the extent that we have more or less definite reasons for expecting a change in practice we have tacitly agreed as a rule to fall back on what is in truth a convention the essence of this convention though it does not of course work out quite so simply lies in assuming that the existing state of affairs will continue indefinitely except in so far as we have specific reasons to expect a change posted by the arthurian at 6 13 am 0 comments thursday april 9 2015 also following up on yesterday s thought it seems to me that for the inflation adjustment of debt maybe for all real calculations but definitely for real debt calculations you want to have the base year at the start of the dataset not at the end of it the real calculation removes the effects of inflation inflation is prices going up if you remove the increase in prices your numbers get lower to show the lower you have to put the base year at the start of the series so it just makes sense to do it see also mine of 5 april coincidentally or not using the first year as the base year solves the starting year problem that i discussed yesterday come to think of it when i did inflation adjusted debt calcs a while back i wrote about a floating base year posted by the arthurian at 5 41 am 1 comments wednesday april 8 2015 the ending year is a problem i like writing it s like private time i get to block out the world and play with things in my head i don t even listen to the radio in the car that s how much an introvert i am but sometimes the world interferes too many dogs demanding attention too much going on at work demanding attention and the wife demanding attention eh that s all just excuses i like writing regularly and keeping the blog alive and reading the responses to the things i say i like being right and i like being corrected when i m not and i like being forced to think about things so thank you still sometimes it s hard to write i have a problem with gene callahan one of us is an asshole him or me the thought that it might be me makes it hard to write why i don t know it just does i have a bigger problem with my inflation adjustment of debt stuff that s what this post is about it s not always easy to tell i guess there was one problem pointed out in two anonymous comments a couple weeks back that was a good criticism excellent in fact i resolved that one pretty well i think but along the way there was another comment this one from jim i would have expected that 70 years of inflation adjustment would inflate the debt a lot more than the graph indicates yeah i would have expected that too but jim hit me with it too soon i was still getting acclimated to the other adjustment to the calculation things soak into my brain at their own speed there s nothing i can do about that like jim i expected a different result on the graph but unlike a lot of people i am willing to accept what graphs show me and fit my thinking to that but then if there is a mistake in my calculations i really want to direct my attention to the mistake rather than fitting my thinking to it wow you know the lumber yard burned down the other day nothing left i don t know why this comes to mind now anyway i wanted to look at the difference between real and nominal debt measures when inflation erodes debt things get better for debtors and equally worse for creditors i wanted to look at interest paid on debt and see how well it fills the gap between the real and nominal debt measures things like that fascinate me i laid out a plan using some made up numbers to clarify for myself what i wanted to do with the numbers that part was easy it was much more difficult for some reason fitting actual numbers to the plan attention demanding but as i worked it out it became obvious to me that the debtor is only responsible i use the word loosely for the creditor s loss during the time that the debtor owes the creditor if you have a dollar and you hang on to it for ten years and there is inflation during that ten years hey it s your loss if i borrow that dollar and pay you back five years later then if during that five years there is inflation the erosion of value contributes to the gap between real and nominal debt totals i am not saying debtors should make up the difference i am trying to clarify how big the difference is to get a better feel for the growth of debt and when i pay back the creditor and i don t have his dollar any more if there is inflation after that it s on him that s the key concept if i want to see the size of the erosion of debt in 2009 say then i have to do my funky year by year calculation breaking 2009 s total outstanding debt into the yearly additions that accumulated and for each of those years figuring the erosion of debt for that year s addition to debt from that year to 2009 and that should be exactly right but if i want to see the size of the erosion in 2010 instead i have to adjust for inflation from the year of borrowing to the ending year 2010 not 2009 here s the problem i was an idiot i was using 2009 for the ending year to figure all the values because i was using a gdp deflator that has 2009 for its base year so all the years before 2009 on the graphs i did for these post all the years before 2009 show the gap bigger than it really was and all the years after 2009 show it smaller that it really was the outcome or what i expect the outcome to be is that jim was right i expect to see real debt peel away from nominal debt faster and higher than my previously corrected graphs show my graph that was wrong showed the faster and higher thing i thought that was right that s why i needed the anonymous help to fix my mistaken start value calculation but i think when i fix the ending value calculation using inflation from the earliest data to 1960 for the 1960 calculation from earliest data to 1961 for the 1961 calculation from earliest to 1962 for the 1962 calculation and leaving 2009 out of the calculation except in the year 2009 i think the graph will show something more like what jim and i were expecting to see but i still have to work it out i m just gonna post this and run i m already late to work and the dogs are still out but i m pretty sure when i did the inflation adjustment of debt thing a year or two ago i did the ending calculation correctly i mean what i m saying now is the correct calculation i didn t check that but i think that s right so anyway now that i ve laid out my confusion and i hope made it less confusing maybe i can get back to writing and doing the calcs i need to do thanks for listening posted by the arthurian at 6 58 am 0 comments sunday april 5 2015 mendacity at fred a tangent since 21 march i have been mostly looking at the inflation adjustment of debt the effect of inflation can be calculated and it can then be removed from the debt numbers but the calculation is less straightforward for debt than say for gdp gdp is a flow variable where each year s number represents only that year s activity debt on the other hand is a stock variable any one year s debt number includes all the outstanding debt from prior years in addition to the new debt accumulated during the year under consideration the accumulation of many years in each debt number means that to remove the effects of inflation each year s accumulated debt number must be split up into separate amounts for each year debt was added to the accumulation so that each year s inflation can be removed from that year s piece of the debt after that the adjusted numbers can be totaled up to get an accurate measure of accumulated debt with the effects of inflation stripped away if that all sounds a little confusing well it is perhaps that s why we often see people inflation adjust debt the same way they inflation adjust gdp but it is certainly wrong to do that the inflation adjustment is incorrect and it leads to incorrect conclusions about our economic problems this is no small matter to strip inflation out of any one year s gdp you just divide that gdp number by the price number for the same year here s how dividing works if you have a lot of company and you divide a pie into 10 pieces all the pieces are small but if you only have a few people over and you divide the pie into 4 pieces all the pieces are big when you divide by a big number the result is small and when you divide by a small number the result is big since prices were going up let s say continuously from world war two until the 2009 recession old price numbers are smaller than new ones so dividing by an old price number is like dividing by a small number and dividing by new price number is like dividing by a big number if you have a series of numbers like gdp numbers say and you divide each year s gdp number by that year s price number the older numbers come out bigger and the newer numbers come out smaller that s why when you see a graph that shows actual gdp with prices going up and real gdp with the price changes stripped away the old real numbers are higher and the new real numbers are lower red is real graph 1 gdp in recent years at actual prices blue and with inflation stripped away red for the years before 2009 the red line is higher than the blue line for the years after 2009 the red line is lower than the blue line the old real numbers are higher and the new real numbers are lower than the numbers we started with that remains true even when you look at all the years in the data set graph 2 gdp since 1947 at actual prices blue and with inflation stripped away red the blue line goes up faster than the red line because the blue line shows prices going up and the red line does not and the lines cross in 2009 because 2009 is the base year again the red line is calculated by dividing the price increases out of the blue line for the next graph i got rid of the red real gross domestic product series and in its place i show the blue line again now in red divided by the price numbers so you can see the calculation graph 3 gdp at actual prices blue and with inflation removed by calculation red graph 3 looks just the same as graph 2 when you look at the red and blue lines but comparing the titles across the top of the two graphs you can see the calculation that gives you real gross domestic product the change is also evident in the left border labels of course the same calculation has been used for things other than gross domestic product here s disposable personal income graph 4 disposable personal income blue and the inflation adjusted version red looks almost the same as graph 3 doesn t it we can do the same thing with median household income too graph 5 median household income blue and the inflation adjusted version red now this one looks a little different there are a few reasons it only goes back to the mid 1980s for one thing so you don t see as much up slope as on the previous graphs and then there just isn t as much up slope and this time the lines cross at 2013 rather than 2009 that s a big difference but it is only because the red line is shown in 2013 dollars prices were higher in 2013 than any prior year so it took more dollars that year than it took in say 2009 to buy the same stuff and since the red line is shown in 2013 dollars when it took the most dollars of any year to buy stuff all the years seem to show a lot of dollars that s why the red line is so high come to think of it using 2013 dollars was a pretty slick trick because it makes median household income look high you weren t fooled by that were you it s easy enough to change it i can divide all the red line s numbers by the red value for 2009 and multiply by the blue value for 2009 that will shift the red line down so the two lines cross in 2009 same as the first four graphs today the graph at fred shows a value of 54 059 dollars for the red line in 2009 it shows a value of 49 777 for the blue line in 2009 i ll use those numbers and you will be able to see them in the title text across the top of the graph graph 6 median household income blue and inflation adjusted to 2009 base red now you see the two lines cross in 2009 but heck we can push the red line down even more i ll redo it now using the fred values from 1991 we can make that sucker look flat but remember we didn t flatten the red line it was already flat we just moved it down some now we can see it now we can see something other than how high fred has it posted by the arthurian at 8 51 am 0 comments saturday april 4 2015 how do you measure success i suppose you could use the karl urban standard he is best known for playing éomer in the second and third installments of peter jackson s the lord of the rings trilogy dr leonard bones mccoy in star trek and star trek into darkness cupid and julius caesar in xena warrior princess kirill in bourne supremacy vaako in the chronicles of riddick and riddick and judge dredd in the 2012 film dredd cough i count it a success when i see something like this in my browser it means i successfully deleted something that interrupted me to get itself updated posted by the arthurian at 4 41 pm 0 comments friday april 3 2015 working interest into the mix suppose i borrow 10 to be repaid as a lump sum after five years with one dollar interest to be paid annually year 0 borrow 10 year 1 pay interest 1 year 2 pay interest 1 year 3 pay inte...
|
