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ion details view sample issues latest commentaries subscription flash commentary no 1460b june 20th 2021 fundamentals could not be stronger for gold and silver nor weaker for the u s dollar and stocks despite fed or market nonsense to the contrary there is no v shaped recovery battered non recovered may 2021 payrolls and unemployment confirmed a still ravaged economy on par with the great depression severely negative annual revisions to industrial production mean the economy was in recession well before the pandemic hit business cycle conditions are collapsing rapidly amidst an extreme acceleration in inflation 2021 social security cost of living adjustment cola could spike to a 40 year high based on potential third quarter 2021 cpi w bureau of labor statistics reveals it cannot measure the cpi properly at present fomc has trouble forecasting inflation one quarter ahead let alone two years ahead despite talk of tightening in 2022 or 2023 fomc is easing anew in its latest actions more flash commentary no 1460a may 31st 2021 benchmarked industrial production revised sharply lower both manufacturing and mining were hit hard new numbers indicate the economy was in a deepening recession well before the pandemic shutdown and collapse old numbers showed production peaked in december 2018 and flattened out february 2020 pre pandemic peak was 3 75 higher than the pre great recession peak new numbers show production peaked in august 2018 and entered protracted decline february 2020 pre pandemic peak was 1 11 1 11 below the pre great recession peak manufacturing sector has never recovered pre great recession peak levels april 2020 pandemic economic trough revised lower by 5 1 5 1 economic recovery is not as close as hyped by the consensus outlook negative implications here for the july 29th gdp benchmarking chances are reduced for moderating extreme monetary and fiscal policies evolving circumstances remain extremely strong for gold and silver and weak for the u s dollar and stocks despite central bank or other systemic machinations to the contrary more flash commentary no 1460a may 31st 2021 benchmarked industrial production revised sharply lower both manufacturing and mining were hit hard new numbers indicate the economy was in a deepening recession well before the pandemic shutdown and collapse old numbers showed production peaked in december 2018 and flattened out february 2020 pre pandemic peak was 3 75 higher than the pre great recession peak new numbers show production peaked in august 2018 and entered protracted decline february 2020 pre pandemic peak was 1 11 1 11 below the pre great recession peak manufacturing sector has never recovered pre great recession peak levels april 2020 pandemic economic trough revised lower by 5 1 5 1 economic recovery is not as close as hyped by the consensus outlook negative implications here for the july 29th gdp benchmarking chances are reduced for moderating extreme monetary and fiscal policies evolving circumstances remain extremely strong for gold and silver and weak for the u s dollar and stocks despite central bank or other systemic machinations to the contrary more benchmark commentary no 1459 april 21st 2021 intractable and deteriorating conditions still signal no imminent economic recovery irrespective of some bounces in march activity against weather driven february collapses monthly annual and post pandemic payroll declines have stabilized around minus six to seven percent for the last eight month weakest showing since 1946 annual change gyrations are just beginning for economic inflation money supply and financial return numbers as the pandemic driven collapse passes it first anniversary beyond year one multi year crisis driven collapses need to be assessed against pre crisis levels or stacked two year change as well as year to year change the federal reserve overhauled its money supply reporting redefining traditional m1 from 34 8 to 93 4 of a not redefined total m2 this masked accelerating flight to liquidity in traditional m1 from non m1 components of m2 shadowstats defined basic m1 combined currency and demand deposits still reflects the extraordinary liquidity flight to and surge in the narrower money supply expanded federal reserve accommodation remains likely well into 2023 given the increasingly negative outlook for imminent u s economic recovery fed chair powell noted that surging money supply no longer boosts the economy that is because the current collapse is pandemic not business cycle driven surging money growth in a non business cycle collapse can trigger hyperinflation surging monetary base reserves and currency indicate intensifying systemic problems underlying fundamentals remain extremely strong for gold and silver and weak for the u s dollar and stocks despite central bank or other systemic machinations to the contrary more april 21st 2021 more flash commentary no 1458 february 24th 2021 january 2021 manufacturing declined year to year for the 19th consecutive month still in the downturn induced by the fomc 15 months before the pandemic collapse where january 2021 year to year manufacturing contracted by 1 0 1 0 it also contracted by 1 8 1 8 from january 2019 two years ago while the january 2021 cass freight index gained year to year for the fourth straight month it also contracted by 1 6 1 6 from two years ago despite happy headline gains in january 2021 real retail sales production and construction the underlying payroll employment numbers tell the opposite story first quarter 2021 gdp remains at risk of relapsing into quarterly contraction january 2021 producer price index monthly inflation hit a record 10 year high u s dollar collapse accelerates holding physical precious metals remains the best hedge against developing inflation and financial market turmoil more flash commentary no 1457 february 16th 2021 pandemic driven unemployment soared to an april 2020 peak of about 32 worse than in the great depression such was against a january 2020 pre pandemic u 3 unemployment rate of 3 5 in the latest four months pandemic driven unemployment has leveled off around 12 worst since before world war ii other than for the pandemic payroll employment benchmark revisions showed a deepening accelerating decline into an april 2020 trough with renewed deterioration at present recovery from the pandemic shutdown has stalled and or is regressing january 2021 annual growth in money supply m1 and m2 surged to respective record highs of 69 7 and 25 8 despite some downside benchmark revisions near record growth of currency in circulation foreshadows inflation risk nonetheless january 2021 cpi u annual inflation hit a soft ten month high of 1 4 boosted by gasoline prices but constrained by mixed food and core inflation stock indices are at or near all time highs coming into the first anniversary of the pre pandemic stock market peaks and subsequent crashes near term financial market turmoil likely is far from over given renewed deterioration in economic conditions more flash commentary no 1456 february 1st 2021 fourth quarter 2020 annualized real gdp growth of 4 0 was as expected slowing from the record 33 4 third quarter pandemic rebound full year 2020 annual gdp decline of 3 5 3 5 was the deepest since the 1946 post world war ii economic reset current u s economy remains far from a full recovery first quarter 2021 gdp increasingly is set for a relapsing quarterly contraction deepening deficits in fourth quarter and annual 2020 real net exports gdp and the related real merchandise trade deficit were the worst ever in modern u s reporting real annual growth in new orders for durable goods turned negative amidst renewed slowing in commercial aircraft orders full year 2020 existing and new home sales were highest since 2006 yet fourth quarter 2020 new home sales contracted as did real retail sales suggestive of consumers facing intensifying pandemic and liquidity issues financial market turmoil is just beginning more economic commentary issue no 1455 january 28th 2021 key monthly economic numbers turned negative anew in fourth quarter 2020 narrowing annual declines in october and november payrolls stalled at 6 0 6 0 but the year to year drop in december 2020 payrolls deepened to 6 2 6 2 an increasing number of unemployed people were misclassified as employed corrected december unemployment would have jumped instead of holding at 6 7 december 2020 real retail sales declined for the third straight month and fourth quarter 2020 activity relapsed into quarterly contraction december 2020 cass freight index jumped year to year by 6 7 but its two year change was down 1 8 1 8 from december 2018 due to fomc tightening contracting intervening 2019 activity momentum of fourth quarter data suggests a first quarter 2021 gdp contraction as the pandemic and political tumult take on negative new dimensions federal reserve chairman powell we are a long way from full recovery latest weekly money supply m1 jumped an unprecedented 72 3 year to year severe u s dollar debasing inflationary pressures from existing extreme monetary and fiscal policies are about to get much worse risk of hyperinflationary economic collapse has accelerated with democrats taking control of both the white house and congress holding physical precious metals remains the best hedge against coming inflation and market turmoil more economic commentary no 1454 december 29th 2020 deepening economic woes and soaring inflation ahead underlying economic and labor numbers through november indicate contracting or flattening fourth quarter 2020 gdp well shy of economic recovery on top of downside revisions declining november real retail sales showed renewed economic deterioration november new home sales collapsed by a meaningful 11 1 11 1 in the month on top of major downside revisions to sales in each of the prior three months november industrial production and its dominant manufacturing sector showed deepening year to year declines while the mining sector showed a narrowed annual plunge thanks to rising oil prices federal reserve sees continuing need for inflation boosting monetary stimulus with no economic recovery expected before 2023 continuing massive expansions of federal government deficit spending and federal reserve monetary stimulus promise massive inflation liquidity strapped consumers move to cash spiking traditional money supply m1 minimizing reporting of such the fed just redefined money supply m1 given newly defined m1 like liquidity characteristics for m2 savings deposits savings have been shifted retroactively from m2 to into m1 effective as of may 2020 redefined november money supply m1 just jumped from 31 7 to 92 7 of total m2 november 2020 year to year growth in the traditional money supply m1 soared to a record 53 2 the redefined new series reflects a record 348 4 jump weakening u s dollar rebounding gold and oil prices foreshadow rising inflation more archives shadowstats continues to publish notice to subscribers and interested readers august 28 2023 shadowstats continues to publish all it s commentaries forecasts data and graphs by e mai link to subscribers if you are a shadowstats subscriber but not receiving those e mails please contact me directly at johnwilliams shadowstats com or call 707 763 5786 and i shall get it straightened out immediately separately any subscriber who needs any hard data or related graphs please contact me directly as above and your needs will be fulfilled as background to the recent changes and disruptions at shadowstats com the shadowstats website previously was hosted on the web by a company we had dealt with for many years but which went out of business in mid august with little warning ours is an older site and is being updated and adapted to its new web host along with some other software getting the circumstances adjusted specifically putting a new e mail delivery system in place for subscribers took longer than expected but the new system is in place going on its third week commentaries including the usual comment and graphs are transmitted roughly once per week depending on the flow of new economic and financial data releases the shadowstats alternate data files also are provided as before in an excel file but also now by link shadowstats welcomes new subscribers and existing subscribers for those looking to subscribe or to renew an existing subscription a one year subscription continues at 175 00 with six months at 89 00 to subscribe or renew contact johnwilliams shadowstats com or call 707 763 5786 you also may mail a check for 175 00 or for 89 00 payable to walter j williams at p o box 2528 petaluma ca 95953 be sure to include your full name e mail address postal mailing address and phone number and to indicate either a one year or six month subscription on the check most recent outlook amidst continuing deterioration in u s economic activity and increasing risk of resurgent inflation the shadowstats new weekly commentary was launched and linked to subscribers by e mail on august 14th covering the general economy labor conditions and the july 2023 cpi followed by one on august 24th covering july 2023 money supply and general economy the next edition is planned for friday september 1st covering august 2023 employment and unemployment and the third estimate of second quarter 2023 gdp there will be three to five commentaries per month depending on the economic and fomc calendar the outlook has changed little shadowstats numbers show that the economy remains in a deepening downturn intensified by ongoing federal reserve rate hikes headline inflation faces a near term rebound thanks to the continuing and broadly based excessive growth in the money supply and systemic liquidity as triggered by the fed separately with the debt ceiling now eliminated by congress and the executive branch unfettered federal deficit spending increasingly is adding fuel to the unfolding inflation the systemic inflation is not driven by the fed s proclaimed overheating economy such an economy simply does not exist at present my apologies for the site disruptions and thank you for your patience and forbearance best regards john walter j john williams johnwilliams shadowstats com 707 763 5786 have you ever wondered why the cpi gdp and employment numbers run counter to your personal and business experiences the problem lies in biased and often manipulated government reporting primers on government economic reports what you ve suspected but were afraid to ask the story behind unemployment the federal deficit cpi gdp alternate data view emp cpi m3 special reports public comment on inflation measurement the chained cpi u public commentary on unemployment update 2016 update 2015 hyperinflation 2014 2014 second installment deficit reality others consumer liquidity depression money supply specialized economic consulting services include customized forecasts and analyses of the general economy presentati...
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