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Text of the page (random words):
ed by the interest of the loan posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments monday december 13 2010 isn t it obvious adam smith the wealth of nations book 3 chapter 2 the proprietors of land were anciently the legislators of every part of europe the laws relating to land therefore were all calculated for what they supposed the interest of the proprietor let wealthy men make law and the law serves wealthy men put lawyers in congress and they make laws no one can read posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments sunday december 12 2010 no imagination i am always quick to admit i have no imagination when i read the title of paul krugman s recent post lawn guyland is america s future i thought he was referring to the rise of landscaping companies as the best new engine of economic growth we could hope for i had to say the words aloud lawn guyland to get pk s reference oh well anyway in that post krugman writes a new tea party backed county executive has taken office gone ahead and cut taxes and can t come up with offsetting spending cuts can t come up with offsetting spending cuts well yeah because excessive spending is not the problem see i say the same thing over and over no imagination at all posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments saturday december 11 2010 thoughts on thoughts vic i have removed a word or three from your remarks because i think it makes your thought stronger didn t add because that would weaken it also i broke up your one paragraph into three because paragraphs help me think and i am changing your word rates to levels pause because i have to responding to my recent post bigvic writes so i turn back to the question that really deserves to be asked in this situation why why allow ourselves to go down this road of credit borrowing and credit spending why allow private debt to balloon to such astronomical levels why allow every program to be financed through government debt i think that we don t ask these questions because the answer will undermine the system and world that we built there is no way that most americans would have been able to keep up with this farce that there is such a thing as the middle class it is absolutely not possible without such credit policies in place if history has taught us anything it is that a strong middle class counters any revolutionary action from occurring in society it is paramount for the stability of the united states and the system that a middle class is in place you write good kid the middle sentence in the middle paragraph there is exactly right i think without the astronomical expansion of credit use there is no way that most americans would have been able to keep up with this farce that there is such a thing as the middle class but if you go back to the 1950s and 60s when the economy was good we had a strong middle class things fell apart then in the 70s and by the 1980s we had a new kind of economic policy reaganomics with that the middle class began to wither away reagan was admired like no other president in my lifetime except jfk reagan is held in high esteem still today and the policies he put in place are still cherished despite the result we can see all around us it is essential to remember that the changes of the past 30 years are the result of the well received policies of reaganomics for many people today there is a disconnect between those policies and the resulting conditions current trends of policy are empowered by that disconnect you write a strong middle class counters any revolutionary action from occurring in society yes and a dying middle class gives rise to tea parties i have to believe that reagan knew and every president has known what you say about a strong middle class i have to believe reagan tried to keep the middle class strong with his supply side economics and his policies i have to believe also that people can see those policies have failed i think the trouble is that people think there s no alternative to reaganomics other than pro debt keynesian policies but when the problem is excessive debt one pro debt policy is no different from another pro debt policy you ask why why allow ourselves to go down this road of credit borrowing and credit spending why allow private debt to balloon to such astronomical levels i think you overlook the power of economic policy vic we did not allow ourselves to go down that road we were driven down that road by policy there is a whole industry in this country dedicated to helping people get out of debt that industry would not exist if people were not willing to spend money trying to get out of debt one might question the logic of such an expense but the point is we all of us are doing our best to avoid going down the road of debt accumulation like the weight reduction industry the debt reduction industry has had limited success but the general trend of the nation is to get fatter if you get my drift people often say we spent too much we had a party for thirty years and now we must pay i say that s nonsense maybe some people spent too much most people were simply trying to slow the decline in their standard of living the problem is not profligate spending the problem is that we use credit for money it is difficult to avoid accumulating debt in a society that uses credit for money and obviously one cannot use credit to pay off debt even to try would be self defeating without the astronomical expansion of credit use as you put it there is no way that most american would have been able to keep up with this farce that there is such a thing as the middle class but it didn t have to be that way it only is that way because the federal reserve pulled money out of circulation to fight inflation while congress did everything it could think of to get us using more credit to keep the economy growing apparently they thought using money causes inflation but using credit doesn t silly boys posted by the arthurian at 9 58 am 7 comments re thinking policy the only way to fix the economy is to get rid of some debt a lot of debt actually but remember it is private sector debt that holds our economy down not public debt so it is private sector debt that must be reduced when at last we do that if ever we do the economy will grow like gangbusters again with 30 years of growth incentives in place there ll be no way to stop the growth but when we finally get the economy growing again we have to do things differently we have to fight inflation differently we can no longer expect the fed to restrict the quantity of money and curse them when they don t and curse them when they do we must demand from the fed a quantity of money adequate to support the existing level of economic activity this will be a much greater quantity than we had at least greater than we had before the quantitative easings we must demand from policy that it encourage credit use for growth but not for everything we must expect the fed to provide sufficient money to support the existing economy and congress must understand that credit is only for growth and we must invent a policy that uses accelerated repayment of debt to draw money out of circulation when we need to fight inflation which is always the point of these changes is to get monetary stumbling blocks out of the economy s way so the economy will perform as we know it can posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments labels accelerated repayment of debt friday december 10 2010 ohm ohm ohm winterspeak of 25 september 2010 opens thus some u chicago professor made the impolitic observation that taxes on the rich don t actually fall on the rich at all they fall on professional college educated working couples he s been pilloried and taken down the post although i m sure it lives on nevertheless his central observation is quite correct a comment on the post by ohm opens thus no matter what income level you increase taxes from the act by itself will sacrifice some aggregate demand for goods and some for financial assets like stocks the key is in using the additional tax collected to generate moderate income jobs i like ohm s insight but his key won t unlock the door watch while i take his insight and go arthurian with it no matter what income level you increase taxes from the act by itself will sacrifice some aggregate demand for goods and some for financial assets like stocks if you take money away from people people have less money but people already don t have any excess money we ve been pinching pennies and clipping coupons for years meanwhile massive government debt and deficits show that government also has less money than it seems to need many people wouldn t agree that government has less money that it needs but those people can t agree either on which spending is the excessive spending this is a clue that that spending may not be excessive and that the problem may lie elsewhere meanwhile for the people and the government together clearly there is not enough money to meet the need for money but with all the inflation we had in the last 45 years everybody knows the fed has been printing too much money so where is the money where is the money consumers don t have it government doesn t have it if i can use one of economists favorite lines y c i g nx the c doesn t have it and the g doesn t have it that leaves only i or nx businesses or net exports but businesses don t have the money either well maybe they do now some of em since the meltdown but since the meltdown is not the normal economy to see how we got into the melty mess we re in today we have to go back and look at money in the normal economy businesses didn t have the money profits were low low enough that business was not good that was the whole problem in a nutshell most income of business was tied up in maintaining the business restocking shelves meeting expenses just like everybody else back in the old normal businesses had cash flow but not a lot of money now in the slump businesses are restocking less that s why some of them are sitting on cash but again we must understand things before the slump before the slump nobody had much money not people not businesses not government by the formula that leaves only nx net exports our trade imbalance is certainly a drain of dollars from the u s economy and yes the trade imbalance has been getting worse but all that means is the farther back you look the less the trade imbalance is a reason money is in short supply in our economy we are left with a dilemma the answer to our question where did the money go is either 1 we lost it due to foreign trade or 2 the money wasn t there even before the trade deficit developed my answer the money wasn t there if you look back far enough back in the 1970s before there was a trade imbalance that is when our economic troubles started look back to the years when growth was still good the 1960s no trade deficit then at all then in the 1970s when the golden age ended and stagflation arose and the keynesian consensus fell apart and nixon took us off gold even then we had a pretty good balance of trade it varied but it varied around zero the perfect balance of trade we were not losing dollars to nx then the golden age ended and our troubles began in the 1970s the economy went bad before the trade imbalance developed in the 1980s like c and g and i nx is not where our money went there must be something else involved some other thing in our economy that can influence the quantity of money hmmm the obvious place to look for our money is the federal reserve everybody says they printed too much okay but where is it it s not in any part of our economy that s identified in the economists formula as i see it they did not print too much money they restricted too much encouraging the use of credit instead accounts receivable and credit cards and such that s why business in the old normal didn t have money businesses had receivables promises of promises to pay consumers had growing debt and government had budgets that could not be balanced the fed restricted money and then congress encouraged spending and when the spending caused inflation the fed restricted more and when restriction choked off growth congress created more incentives for growth and spending and credit use our use of credit increased faster than our use of money before long we were not only using credit for growth we were using credit for everything policy was replacing money with credit and that s when interest costs started contributing to inflation and when the fed saw inflation the fed would raise interest rates thereby increasing costs and choking off growth and then naturally congress would create more incentives for growth and spending and credit use the unintended consequence of a conflict in economic policy left us with no money but plenty of spending incentives thus we became credit users for a long time the economy got by like that we thought it normal economists called it the great moderation and debt accumulated and then one day it all fell apart this story explains why we have no money no money and lots of debt if you take money away from people people have less money if you encourage credit use people have more debt it ain t rocket science it s policy so ohm no matter what income level you increase taxes from or decrease them for that matter you re only moving the empty hole where money ought to be changing taxes doesn t solve the problem we ought to know that by now having passed that hole around like a hot potato since the 1970s posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 7 comments thursday december 9 2010 trade imbalance overlay if you take the trade deficit relative to gdp multiply by 1 so a growing trade deficit goes up index the series on its average value as milton friedman would do create a graph from the numbers in a google docs spreadsheet add a constant to shift the trend line up a bit stretch the graph to make it comparable in size to the saez graph and overlay the trade deficit graph on the saez income concentration graph this is what you get the blue line and gray numbers are the trade imbalance overlay my feeling is if i had the numbers used in the saez graph and i generated both graphs instead of trying to fit the one to the other the similarity would be greater and the manipulation would be less i do not mean to imply that increasing income concentration caused or was caused by the growing trade imbalance i mean to show that the same trend change we see in the saez graph is clearly visible in trade imbalance data and i do mean to imply that both changes occurring almost simultaneously were the result of changes in economic policy tech notes i used the free paint net program to do these graphic manipulations i opened up the saez graph and saved it as a png file because png allows clear backgrounds i opened up the trade imbalance png googledocs saves the graph as png by default i used the magic wand tool to select the white background of the graph and the delete key to erase tha...
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