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eir past performance and the statistics we have for a baseball player are more comprehensive and empirical than what we have for the economy but models were only marginally useful in detecting unseen patterns usually they told you that if a player was good he would continue to be until he aged in real life exceptions were the rule even when throwing out unforeseen injuries from the sample humans beings are difficult to predict and control it s just life and it s good models are fun to play around with but it s best to not view them as sacrosanct and though lecturing amateurs can feel well really good it doesn t mean much in the end as a professional musician i deal with amateurs all the time and learn quite a bit from them amateurism is a sign of health in a profession it means people are interested and when one s field has failed at many of its basic tasks and basic forecasts it always a good idea to discard dogma posted by purple at 1 47 am no comments subtext a strongman to make the united states governable is this desperate talk about governing opening up the option for a strong leader to come clean things up it s not like the united states has ever been easy to govern i suspect ruling class frustration has to do with its inability to break the popularity of entitlements and the general failure of neo liberalism in the united states neo liberalism has resulted in stagnant living standards but it has not been successful at dramatically reducing them and while resistance is not the type associated with class struggle like the strikes in greece last week it is still persistent in a peculiarly atomized american way institutions have become so openly corrupt that people are suspicious about whatever the political class wants i wonder if obama was a last gasp a last attempt to put forward a democratic vision of u s imperial power if he fails pretensions may thrown aside in a way that would make dick cheney smile 1 we ve got a problem in governing in this country financial times paul volcker q a 2 never heard that before ny times opinion friedman the beijing consensus posted by purple at 12 31 am no comments friday february 12 2010 the next phase of the crisis it will occur when investors business governments the public realize that china cannot pick up the baton from a debt weary western consumer what tied china over during the last few years after the collapse of exports is bank lending on a massive scale it stabilized their economy and the always important political situation but now stabilized china is basically not concerned with taking the baton that western business so eagerly hopes to hand them the recent moves to constrain new bank lending in 2010 mean that there will be less of a long term overhang of debt but also less of an ability to power growth and china s economy sans exports is mostly dependent on investment consumption remains stagnated at 35 of gdp market weakness in the last month is related more to a slowdown in china s credit binge than anything out of the eu a world of overcapacity without a new consumer of last resort will lead to a new and deeper phase of the crisis 1 china slowdown fears hit markets financial times dyer 2 growing bearish forbes meredith posted by purple at 8 52 pm no comments silicon valley worries silicon valley facing a slowdown in innovation and a shortage of funding may lose its competitive advantage to emerging u s technology hotbeds such as huntsville alabama and washington d c a study found a certain arrogance and belief has existed in the valley that they are indispensable to the us economy but centers of economic power are as capable of shifting in the united states as they are internationally silicon valley benefited from a previous shift when it took over us economic leadership from the industrial midwest and this largely came on the back of government investment the government is a growing source of funding for new technologies as venture funding remains sluggish said emmett carson ceo of silicon valley community foundation in mountain view california communities outside silicon valley such as washington huntsville and austin texas are doing a better job getting these funds he said silicon valley received 6 7 billion in federal procurement spending in 2008 about 1 3 percent of the total according to the report in 1993 that figure was more than 2 percent if you look at the history of silicon valley we benefited in the past from defense spending and other spending carson said it didn t happen because of a garage that s a great mythology but it happened because people took advantage of federal investments and what that meant for offshoots a government in disarray and large public debts are two obvious problems in california but i would also point to futures challenges of its port dominance such as the widening of the panama canal and proposed mega ports in northern mexico as equally troubling 1 silicon valley struggling to keep competitive edge study says bloomberg flinn posted by purple at 1 59 pm no comments thursday february 11 2010 iran isn t going away the markets are seemingly oblivious to this fact military action against iran is growing more likely each and every day with all of its potential consequences the wall street journal lends out its pages for some hard right red meat if there is a war a large part of the responsibility will rest with beijing china has assumed the status of a great power including a veto at the u n security council but instead of becoming a responsible member of the community of leading states acting jointly with other powers to avert the prospect of wars china is using its new found power in ways that make war more likely 1 blame china for iran s nukes wsj posted by purple at 10 41 am no comments vietnam is now the weak link in asia with much of the finance world s attention focused on greece vietnam just abruptly devalued their currency for the fourth time since 2008 the cause is a widening trade gap and an overvalued dong currency which is draining dollar reserves from the central bank it s doubtful this official devaluation will be enough to match declines ongoing in the black market if greece is the weak link in europe vietnam could very well be the same in asia and though greece s budget deficit is now estimated at 12 percent of gdp vietnam s is at a portugal like 7 currency devaluations could trigger copycatting in a region still tied to the dollar the devaluation will help make vietnam s key exports which include shoes coffee and rice cheaper than those of many other asian countries potentially improving its relative position in global trade that could increase tensions with some neighbors especially thailand with which it competes heavily in global markets thailand has already complained that some currencies in the region including the chinese yuan may be undervalued 2 1 vietnam dong weakens to record low after devaluation business week 2 vietnam to devalue dong 3 4 wsj 3 panicked gold buying forces vietnam to devalue currency business insider 4 vietnam devalues dong for second time in 3 months afp minh ha posted by purple at 12 41 am no comments wednesday february 10 2010 european chamber of commerce warns on china protectionsim foreigners don t have the money anymore said the european chamber they just have the know how and there is a feeling that china can develop the know how on its own what we are seeing is almost an isolationist stance meanwhile a manager at a retail company put it more bluntly the idea that china was one day going to be a lucrative market for foreign companies was just an illusion 1 china was never going to fully open their economy to the west particularly their financial sector and domestic companies will always be favored and potential profits for foreign run companies shaky china can t open up too much because of the geographic scale and size of the country their leaders aren t idiots and they know fragmentation has historically doomed chinese empires therefore a powerful central government is of the utmost importance ultimately an authoritarian government can not integrate into the leadership of global capitalism capitalism requires a particular brand of bourgeoisie democracy to be successful on its own terms over the long run this is not to applaud the west for its form of government which of course is quite imperialistic in its foreign affairs but china is ultimately a single party system that is going to restrict the rights of private capital and the growth of an independent business class no matter how much the city of london or wall street have stomped their feet china has maintained control of its banking sector meanwhile andy xie has a presented rather detailed set of ways that trade war could be avoided few of which look likely to be implemented the various elites of the world seem to be preparing for war and ready to drag the rest of humanity along with them 1 uk businesses threaten to pull out of china over protectionism uk telegraph moore foster 2 steering out of a smash up no one wants caixin xie posted by purple at 1 23 am 1 comment tuesday february 9 2010 a riff on playing music for a living here in the u s one has to wonder about the future of music schools and conservatories with tuition rates of 20 000 a year when available jobs are dwindling many orchestras are in severe crisis now with large deficits and no apparent way to make them up and orchestras are traditionally the largest source of employment in the private sector for classical musicians the decline of the orchestra in the u s has to eventually impact opportunities for musicians in the education system yet people in positions of authority seem pretty much oblivious this is not just restricted to classical music one could throw in jazz as well where opportunities are even more scarce it s sad to see people who regularly played with coltrane and miles davis living in rent by the month hotels as they struggle with the difficulties of age yet i know such people who made much more thirty years ago than now we are throwing away our history and cultural legacy music schools have the standard jazz studies department but who goes into fields such as these when the opportunities to make money are limited and dwindling more and more it s exclusively children of the rich who know they will be taken care of if things don t work out but you re not going to get much vitality in an art that way musicians don t go into the field to get rich but one has to survive the field is demanding and requires one s full attention to improve and succeed you simply can not be a top flight musician and have a day job this can apply to any segment of music not just the above mentioned categories of classical and jazz as economies decline so to do the arts people feel the pinch and have to survive even if it means limiting their artistic pursuits the renaissance was an economic as well as an artistic flowering they go hand in hand those who celebrate their ability to get free music are pretty much celebrating the destruction of another economic base though of course no one is pure in this regard as with any situation there are success stories but the general drift in the music field over the last decades has been towards less less live music opportunities and less money through recordings with or without evil record companies comparing our world of copyrights with mozart s world is ridiculous there were no recordings in mozart s time so live music was needed restaurants couldn t re run a cd all day as they can now everything cannot be about promotion giving something away for free for a future reward there eventually has to be a pay off bills have to be paid teeth have to be fixed shelter provided for if musicians can not get their basic needs met by playing music many will move to other fields and a whole lot of interesting ideas will never be heard posted by purple at 9 31 am no comments monday february 8 2010 yes there is a ruling class no you re not invited it s hard to find articles about this meeting organized by the bank of international settlements the world s top central bankers began arriving in australia yesterday as renewed fears about the strength of the global economic recovery gripped world share markets representatives from 24 central banks and monetary authorities including the us federal reserve and european central bank landed in sydney to meet tomorrow 2 7 at a secret location the herald sun reports 1 secret summit of top bankers news com au posted by purple at 10 18 am no comments palin is still around despite being the standard joke at liberal dinner parties sarah palin s poll numbers are not too bad her most recent gallup poll in december had her at 44 47 or a 3 in favorability in contrast obama s current gallup job approval is 49 44 or 5 slightly different types of polls but it is interesting how small the gap is incumbents usually need to crack 50 job approval to be favored in a re election the election of an incipient fascist like palin is some ways off it would require continued deterioration in the economy and political establishment but she is not going to just fade away in the meantime she can build her base through shock troop movements such as the tea party and stay in the media advocating another american revolution from the right and war with iran say he decided to declare war on iran or decided to really come out and do whatever he could to support israel which i would like him to do 1 it will be interesting to see if she continues developing ties to the intellectual far right of u s politics such as hardliner john bolton 1 palin barack obama needs to toughen up if he wants to be re elected orlando sentinel 2 palin says us ready for another revolution financial times luce posted by purple at 9 43 am no comments toyota and military bases in japan the recent media crackdown on toyota is a bit suspicious given that it comes at the same time japan s new government is considering whether to force the u s military off of okinawa toyota s problems have been known for years but it is only now that the u s government is getting involved with serious investigation and with that the u s media is starting to pile on toyota and japanese exporters need the us market and negative publicity like this could damage the entire japan brand 1 toyota recall fails to address root cause of many sudden acceleration cases safety expert says abc rhee 2 lahood toyota resisted safety fix cbs news 3 u s ambassador stresses need for troops on okinawa stars and stripes weaver posted by purple at 6 42 am no comments sunday february 7 2010 federal tax receipts and gdp one wonders if we are seeing the growth of a grey market in u s economic activity given the drop off in federal tax receipts in proportion to gdp this could also be a measure of the weakness in personal earned incomes which make up most of u s tax receipts and throw in the bush tax cu...
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