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ek housing starts decreased to 1 246 million annual rate by calculated risk on 1 10 2026 02 11 00 pm at the calculated risk real estate newsletter this week click on graph for larger image housing starts decreased to 1 246 million annual rate in october the home atm mostly closed in q3 1st look at local housing markets in december asking rents decline year over year update the housing bubble and mortgage debt as a percent of gdp this is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in depth analysis of the housing market posted by calculated risk on 1 10 2026 02 11 00 pm schedule for week of january 11 2026 by calculated risk on 1 10 2026 08 11 00 am the key reports this week are december cpi existing home sales and november retail sales also new home sales for september and october will be released for manufacturing the december industrial production report and the january new york and philly fed manufacturing surveys will be released monday january 12th no major economic releases scheduled tuesday january 13th 6 00 am nfib small business optimism index for december 8 30 am the consumer price index for december from the bls the consensus is for 0 3 increase in cpi and a 0 3 increase in core cpi the consensus is for cpi to be up 2 7 year over year and core cpi to be up 2 7 yoy 10 00 am new home sales for september and october from the census bureau this graph shows new home sales since 1963 through august 2025 the dashed line is the sales rate for august the consensus is for 714 thousand saar for october wednesday january 14th 7 00 am et the mortgage bankers association mba will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index this will be two weeks of data 8 30 am et the producer price index for december from the bls the consensus is for a 0 3 increase in ppi and a 0 2 increase in core ppi 8 30 am retail sales for november is scheduled to be released the consensus is for a 0 4 increase in retail sales this graph shows retail sales since 1992 this is monthly retail sales and food service seasonally adjusted total and ex gasoline december retail sales for december have not been scheduled yet 10 00 am existing home sales for december from the national association of realtors nar the consensus is for 4 23 million saar up from 4 13 million the graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month 2 00 pm the federal reserve beige book an informal review by the federal reserve banks of current economic conditions in their districts thursday january 15th 8 30 am the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released the consensus is for 208k unchanged from 208k 8 30 am the new york fed empire state manufacturing survey for january the consensus is for a reading of 1 0 down from 3 9 8 30 am the philly fed manufacturing survey for january the consensus is for a reading of 5 0 up from 10 2 friday january 16th 9 15 am the fed will release industrial production and capacity utilization for december this graph shows industrial production since 1967 the consensus is for a 0 2 increase in industrial production and for capacity utilization to be unchanged at 76 0 10 00 am the january nahb homebuilder survey the consensus is for a reading of 40 up from 39 the previous month any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good posted by calculated risk on 1 10 2026 08 11 00 am friday january 09 2026 the home atm mostly closed in q3 by calculated risk on 1 09 2026 02 15 00 pm today in the calculated risk real estate newsletter the home atm mostly closed in q3 a brief excerpt during the housing bubble many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity jokingly calling it the home atm and this contributed to the subsequent housing bust since so many homeowners had negative equity in their homes when house prices declined here is the quarterly increase in mortgage debt from the federal reserve s financial accounts of the united states z 1 sometimes called the flow of funds report released today in the mid 00s there was a large increase in mortgage debt associated with the housing bubble in q3 2025 mortgage debt increased 108 billion unchanged from 108 billion in q2 note the almost 7 years of declining mortgage debt as distressed sales foreclosures and short sales wiped out a significant amount of debt however some of this debt is being used to increase the housing stock purchase new homes so this isn t all mortgage equity withdrawal mew posted by calculated risk on 1 09 2026 02 15 00 pm fed s flow of funds household net worth increased 6 1 trillion in q3 by calculated risk on 1 09 2026 01 12 00 pm the federal reserve released the q3 2025 flow of funds report today financial accounts of the united states the net worth of households and nonprofits rose to 181 6 trillion during the third quarter of 2025 the value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities increased 5 5 trillion and the value of real estate decreased 0 3 trillion household debt increased 4 1 percent at an annual rate in the third quarter of 2025 consumer credit grew at an annual rate of 2 3 percent while mortgage debt excluding charge offs grew at an annual rate of 3 2 percent click on graph for larger image the first graph shows households and nonprofit net worth as a percent of gdp net worth increased 6 1 trillion in q3 as a percent of gdp net worth increased in q3 but is still below the peak in 2021 this includes real estate and financial assets stocks bonds pension reserves deposits etc net of liabilities mostly mortgages note that this does not include public debt obligations the second graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952 household percent equity as measured by the fed collapsed when house prices fell sharply in 2007 and 2008 in q3 2025 household percent equity of household real estate was at 71 6 down from 72 0 in q2 2025 note this includes households with no mortgage debt the third graph shows household real estate assets and mortgage debt as a percent of gdp mortgage debt increased by 108 billion in q3 mortgage debt is up 2 99 trillion from the peak during the housing bubble but as a percent of gdp is at 43 9 down from q2 and down from a peak of 73 1 of gdp during the housing bust the value of real estate as a percent of gdp decreased in q3 and is below the recent peak in q2 2022 but is well above the median of the last 30 years posted by calculated risk on 1 09 2026 01 12 00 pm newsletter housing starts decreased to 1 246 million annual rate in october by calculated risk on 1 09 2026 10 34 00 am today in the calculated risk real estate newsletter housing starts decreased to 1 246 million annual rate in october a brief excerpt note the census bureau is still catching up they released start data for september and october today but we are still missing november data the third graph shows the month to month comparison for total starts between 2024 blue and 2025 red total starts were down 7 8 in october compared to october 2024 year to date ytd starts are down 0 7 compared to the same period in 2024 single family starts are down 7 0 ytd and multi family up 18 0 ytd there is much more in the article posted by calculated risk on 1 09 2026 10 34 00 am housing starts decreased to 1 246 million annual rate in october by calculated risk on 1 09 2026 09 59 00 am from the census bureau permits starts and completions housing starts privately owned housing starts in october were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1 246 000 this is 4 6 percent below the revised september estimate of 1 306 000 and is 7 8 percent below the october 2024 rate of 1 352 000 single family housing starts in october were at a rate of 874 000 this is 5 4 percent above the revised september figure of 829 000 the october rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 347 000 building permits privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in october were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1 412 000 this is 0 2 percent below the revised september rate of 1 415 000 and is 1 1 percent below the october 2024 rate of 1 428 000 single family authorizations in october were at a rate of 876 000 this is 0 5 percent below the revised september figure of 880 000 authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 481 000 in october emphasis added click on graph for larger image the first graph shows single and multi family housing starts since 2000 multi family starts blue 2 units decreased month over month in october multi family starts were down 7 9 year over year single family starts red increased in october and were down 7 8 year over year the second graph shows single and multi family housing starts since 1968 total housing starts in october were well below expectations we are still missing data for november due to the government shutdown i ll have more later posted by calculated risk on 1 09 2026 09 59 00 am comments on december employment report by calculated risk on 1 09 2026 09 20 00 am the headline jobs number in the december employment report was slightly below expectations however october and november were revised down by 76 000 the unemployment rate decreased to 4 4 earlier december employment report 50 thousand jobs 4 4 unemployment rate prime 25 to 54 years old participation since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical recession and demographic aging population younger people staying in school reasons here is the employment population ratio for the key working age group 25 to 54 years old the 25 to 54 years old participation rate was unchanged in december at 83 8 from 83 8 in november the 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 80 7 from 80 6 the previous month both are down slightly from the recent peaks but still near the highest level this millennium average hourly wages the graph shows the nominal year over year change in average hourly earnings for all private employees from the current employment statistics ces there was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5 9 yoy in march 2022 and was at 3 8 yoy in december up from 3 6 yoy in november part time for economic reasons from the bls report the number of people employed part time for economic reasons at 5 3 million changed little in december but is up by 980 000 over the year these individuals would have preferred full time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full time jobs the number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in december to 5 34 million from 5 49 million in november this is well above the pre pandemic levels and near the highest levels since mid 2021 these workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization u 6 that decreased to 8 4 from 8 7 in november this is down from the record high in april 2020 of 22 9 and up from the lowest level on record seasonally adjusted in december 2022 6 6 this series started in 1994 this measure is well above the 7 0 level in february 2020 pre pandemic unemployed over 26 weeks this graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more according to the bls there are 1 95 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job up from 1 91 million in november this is down from post pandemic high of 4 171 million and up from the recent low of 1 056 million this is above pre pandemic levels summary the headline jobs number in the december employment report was slightly below expectations however october and november were revised down by 76 000 the unemployment rate decreased to 4 4 this was another weak employment report posted by calculated risk on 1 09 2026 09 20 00 am older posts bloomberg 2020 a leading real estate data junkie is now focused on the impact of the coronavirus la times blogger keeps finger on pulse of housing market business insider how he got everything right and what s coming next mastodon last 10 posts in memoriam doris tanta dungey click here for more on tanta archive archive jan 2026 39 dec 2025 114 nov 2025 98 oct 2025 80 sep 2025 122 aug 2025 117 jul 2025 130 jun 2025 129 may 2025 129 apr 2025 136 mar 2025 133 feb 2025 122 jan 2025 127 dec 2024 127 nov 2024 118 oct 2024 125 sep 2024 112 aug 2024 80 jul 2024 124 jun 2024 122 may 2024 130 apr 2024 125 mar 2024 127 feb 2024 119 jan 2024 129 dec 2023 124 nov 2023 125 oct 2023 130 sep 2023 126 aug 2023 139 jul 2023 121 jun 2023 129 may 2023 137 apr 2023 129 mar 2023 139 feb 2023 119 jan 2023 129 dec 2022 133 nov 2022 131 oct 2022 134 sep 2022 127 aug 2022 135 jul 2022 132 jun 2022 138 may 2022 136 apr 2022 128 mar 2022 138 feb 2022 127 jan 2022 132 dec 2021 136 nov 2021 150 oct 2021 155 sep 2021 155 aug 2021 184 jul 2021 170 jun 2021 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