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n t then afford to save so much the internal deficit would have to fall too and maybe even turn into a surplus but we have to ask ourselves is this what we really want share this share on x opens in new window x email a link to a friend opens in new window email share on linkedin opens in new window linkedin share on tumblr opens in new window tumblr print opens in new window print share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on reddit opens in new window reddit share on pinterest opens in new window pinterest like loading leave a comment posted in mmt general tagged budget deficit government debt keynes liberal democratic voice liberal party mmt post keynesian post keynesian economics unemployment is a happy new year possible for 2016 posted on december 23 2015 10 comments in april 2014 i wrote stand by for the next uk crash eta 2016 i didn t use my crystal ball which has never proved very reliable in any case when it comes to forecasting football scores or racing results the reasoning was based on the rate of fall in the financial position of the uk private domestic sector it was obvious then that serious private sector debt problems would start to arise in mid to late 2015 if government policies carried on as they were two recent articles by owen jones in the guardian and nigel morris in the independent bear this out government policies have indeed been carried on as they were there is a very real danger of an economic crash as owen jones argues although he doesn t have quite the right explanation it s really not much to do with the need for increased industrial productivity the productivity of uk and european industry is higher than it has ever been yet the economic problems are worse than they have been since the 30 s clearly owen jones much as we might admire his political stance is barking up the wrong tree simply if the uk wants to run a 5 of gdp deficit in its current account balance of payments someone has to fund that by borrowing usually it is government which has assumed that role but increasingly the burden is being shifted onto the private domestic sector it may work in the short term but soon the private sector will be increasingly unable to raise the necessary loans especially if there is a fear of higher interest rates and a general credit crunch in the economy the words credit crunch started to become a cliche of all 2008 financial commentary just prior to the gfc we are starting to hear them again on a more regular basis it s not looking good ps edit the graphical basis of my concern a modified screen shot from neil wilson s blog 3poken share this share on x opens in new window x email a link to a friend opens in new window email share on linkedin opens in new window linkedin share on tumblr opens in new window tumblr print opens in new window print share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on reddit opens in new window reddit share on pinterest opens in new window pinterest like loading 10 comments posted in mmt general tagged austerity economics balance of trade budget deficit central bank chartalism current account deficit economic system european union fiat currencies government budget balance government debt john mcdonnell labour party economics mmt modern monetary theory national debt post keynesian economics resources and money y we need to balance the budget over the business cycle as keynes suggested right posted on december 19 2015 1 comment this article first appeared in liberal democrat voice firstly we do need to ask if keynes did suggest that there are arguments either way on this point keynes view unfolded and developed starting in the bleak 1920 s in britain there was no roaring twenties for the uk economy as the government deflated the economy to try to fit the pound back on to its pre war gold standard keynes then did argue that governments should run deficits if private spending declined and reduce those deficits when future growth was strong enough this has been interpreted by many that his intent was that the budget was to be more or less balanced over the business cycle if anyone is keen to research into his thinking they might like to start with his 1924 publication a tract on monetary reform a better approach might be to try to understand why keynes should made a break from tradition and start to advocate that budgets should at times be unbalanced if we consider an economy which is neither a net exporter nor a net importer and in which everyone spends what they earn within the economy government spending and taxation must balance this is true regardless of the level of taxation imposed providing it is finite and so regardless of the level of inflation within the economy it has to according to the principle of sectoral balances originally developed in the 60 s and 70 s by the late prof wynne godley at cambridge university if the participants of the economy don t spend all they earn ie when private spending declines we can have a tendency to recession keynesian economists would point out that prices and wages tend to be sticky and so don t respond quickly to changing circumstances as more classically minded economists suggest they should therefore keynes was quite right to suggest that the government should spend more or tax less to prevent recession from occurring the government needs to borrow money from the savers and spend it on their behalf later when the savers withdraw their money from the bank or empty their piggy banks and spend it the government needs to run a surplus in its budget to prevent the economy from overheating and inflation occurring so the budget does indeed end up balanced over the cycle it ends up being an approximately symmetrical pattern when expressed graphically this relatively simple model may have been adequate for the uk economy in the 1920s however in recent times the extent of saving and desaving hasn t been symmetrical over the business cycle when times are good people may borrow and spend more but equally they may put more aside for their retirement so if the spending saving borrowing pattern of the population isn t symmetric over the business cycle neither can we expect the government to run a balanced budget over the business cycle instead of imports and exports balancing our economy has something like an annual 5 of gdp deficit in its current account our trading partners seem happy to supply more real things to us than we supply to them they take our ious in the form of treasury bonds or gilts to make up the difference in effect they are like a big net saver within the economy as keynes pointed out if people are saving more and that includes our trading partners the government has to be spending more or taxing less the balanced budget over the cycle is really just a special case which does not apply to our own 21st century economy if we try to force the government budget into balance at the same time ignoring the trading position and the willingness or otherwise of the economy s participants to net save then we are courting economic disaster the budget will not balance no matter how hard we try and we will end up like a dog chasing its own tail as the economy spirals ever deeper into recession share this share on x opens in new window x email a link to a friend opens in new window email share on linkedin opens in new window linkedin share on tumblr opens in new window tumblr print opens in new window print share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on reddit opens in new window reddit share on pinterest opens in new window pinterest like loading 1 comment posted in mmt general tagged balanced budget over cycle bank of england budget deficit chartalism economy fiat currencies government spending keynes mmt post keynesian economics the job guarantee problems from a left perspective posted on december 5 2015 12 comments there s no doubt that a jg program along the lines we might imagine it to be and along the lines advocated by the leading names of mmt warren mosler bill mitchell and others would be highly desirable we could have an economy run to ensure almost full employment except for a jg rate of about 2 then maybe there would be another 2 who were in receipt of unemployment pay due to their being temporarily between jobs we could allow a reasonable period of time for that to occur say about 3 months the jg could have a part to play in young people s apprenticeship schemes too there could be some relaxation in the principle of public purpose if job training was combined with education the jg could pay a living wage meaning that the wage was more than just enough to stay alive but it was enough to enjoy life too the problem for me and i suspect others on the left is that we fear it won t turn out quite like that there s no guarantee or even likelihood that the jg will end poverty it would depend on the wage the jg pays relative to the cost of living in the locality if you re living in london and depending on the rental property market you d need an income much higher than anything i ve seen proposed for the jg to be above any reasonable definition of the poverty line incidentally this posting was prompted by a discussion between neil wilson and others including myself on his very good blog http www 3spoken co uk 2015 11 job guarantee jobs for people html very good doesn t mean we always agree btw as this exchange shows pm we don t want to get into the situation for example where we re threatening young mothers with loss of benefits for not taking up the jg or getting into disputes with the mentally ill as to their capability for work nw i m afraid that isn t your choice that is the choice of the society you live in and how they perceive those individuals which is a fair enough comment of course but if it looks from a left perspective that there are too many devils in the jg detail for comfort why would the left want to aggressively pursue the concept of a jg why not just leave it to the society we live in to come around to the idea that s not likely to happen for a very long time though either the jg is pushed by the left or it just won t happen at all another problem again at least for me is the language used to promote the idea of a jg and it being a buffer stock we are real people yes we want to work and make a contribution but we don t want to be a buffer stock in the same way as we can have a buffer stock of bales of wool or kilos of butter while mmt and concepts like the jg are useful they only go so far mmt doesn t say anything about how wealth and incomes should be shared out if we don t address that question and keep on addressing it then we ll end up with just as much poverty in the future even though society as a whole could well be richer there could well be very much higher rates of jg work as the not so innocent fraudsters in government deliberately shift essential work into the jg sector the jg would be a very powerful weapon and used in the hands of the fraudsters to reduce wages we could for example have a jg now in parts of the eu which paid say 7 ph or whatever was just slightly higher than social benefits so in greece we d have 25 on a jg instead of 25 unemployed there s no way any of us with a leftist perspective would support that if anyone is contributing to society by working the old principle of labour s clause 4 applies to secure for the workers by hand or by brain the full fruits of their industry and the most equitable distribution thereof that may be possible etc having a jg even on a so called living wage doesn t change that one bit share this share on x opens in new window x email a link to a friend opens in new window email share on linkedin opens in new window linkedin share on tumblr opens in new window tumblr print opens in new window print share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on reddit opens in new window reddit share on pinterest opens in new window pinterest like loading 12 comments posted in mmt general tagged austerity economics british labour party central bank chartalism economic system economy job guarantee labour party economics modern monetary theory post keynesian economics warren mosler older posts archives august 2026 m t w t f s s 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 nov pages about test2 topics mmt general uncategorized blogroll 3 spoken alittleecon there is an alternative bill mitchell billy blog bond economics human rights political journal mike norman economics modern money mechanics modern money mechanics mmt simplified modern money network mugwump post new economic perspectives ralphonomics think left warren mosler the center of the universe what is modern monetary theory robert nielsen past posts a fairy story a lesson in economics from stephanie kelton a looming demographic time bomb a simple four sector model of an economy an economic quiz an independent scotland will need its national debt are government bonds just another form of money as an online economic discussion grows longer the probability of a comparison involving the weimar republic or zimbabwe approaches 1 all of the economic research that allegedly supported the austerity push has been discredited balancing the budget big scary numbers 2 everyone in the uk owes 34 281 54 big scary numbers like the uk national debt is 2 228 300 000 000 bill mitchell and randall wray booms and busts boots economics and politics borrowings and lendings budget deficits a burden to our children and grandchildren can commercial banks create money out of thin air can commercial banks create money out of thin air 3 the creation of money by private banks in the process of lending leads only to the removal of money from the economy can commercial banks create money out of thin air 2 can government debt ever be termed good bad or irrelevant classical economists don t understand real people or real economies do we need to balance our books in australia yes maybe except they already are doctor who and the dalek invasion of planet earth 2150 the mmt version economic imperialism fact or fiction ed balls promises to wreck the uk economy by 2020 european lemmings european lemmings eurozone electors have been sold a lemon follow me on twitter future funds and a biblical story german euros and greek euros are they really the same germans don t understand how currency unions need to function germany vs greece the end game germany vs greece the battle commences greece hasn t got a debt problem it has a lack of growth problem greek debts cannot be repaid in euros help australia is running out of money high unemployment in britain is its own government s fault no one else s how come that nearly everyone gets it all wrong on money and the economy how to balance the government budget the mmt way how to balance the government budget the mmt way part 2 how to win and lose elections how to win and lose elections 2 i don t promise to pay the bearer on demand but we ll...
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