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e of most of the band asks for a little more cowbell wikipedia government debt is like cowbell loud and distracting yesterday i said if your plan is to fix the economy by expanding government spending well your plan has already been tried it didn t work yesterday s post reminded me of an old one i did i m repeating part of it here to get the effect be sure to move your mouse on and off the graph a few times we tried stimulus big time we have been trying it since reagan since before reagan even all the while we ve been badmouthing government debt sure but all the while we have been expanding government debt too to stimulate growth graph 1 graph 1 shows the gross federal debt in billions of dollars after world war ii the trend line is basically flat until oh 1970 or so after that the federal debt just goes up and up and up that big pink triangle cowbell there on the hover graph all of it was stimulus loud and distracting not the problem and not the solution posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 4 comments tuesday may 28 2013 fred federal spending as a of gdp blue and federal deficits as a of federal spending red graph 1 federal spending as a of gdp blue and federal deficits as a of federal spending red click graph for fred source page in the green circle federal spending as a percent of gdp and federal deficits as a percent of federal spending both high for 15 years beginning with reagan if your plan is to fix the economy by expanding government spending well your plan has already been tried it didn t work why didn t it work to be blunt it didn t work because we didn t have a depression in those years a depression would have wiped out a lot of private debt while the government spending was pumping money into the economy that didn t happen instead the private sector took every new dollar of government money and diced it up into many more dollars of private lending and debt instead of falling private debt increased of course we don t have to have a depression to minimize the growth of debt it can be accomplished by policy but it can not be accomplished by policy until policymakers decide this is the right thing to do and in order to convince the policymakers i must first convince you posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments monday may 27 2013 the cost push problem if you don t define the problem correctly you probably won t figure out the right solution mike the mad biologist posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments sunday may 26 2013 mish mish we brought her home yesterday morning 17 weeks old 42 pounds likes slippers good name for a dog isn t it posted by the arthurian at 9 02 am 3 comments illicit krugman the new jerk times stops in the middle of the 11th article to tell me i ve reached the limit of 10 free articles a month but i m reading paul krugman s the mythical 70s and i want to read it all so on the firefox menu i hover over the web developer menu item until the submenu pops up and then click on page source to see the html or whatever you call it i copy a good chunk and paste it into the blog editor presto i ve got the whole krugman post and presto again i ve reduced it to focus your eyes on what i found in that post may 19 2013 8 46 am the mythical 70s in elite mythology the origins of the crisis of the 70s like the supposed origins of our current crisis lay in excess too much debt too much coddling of those slovenly proles via a strong welfare state the suffering of 1979 82 was necessary payback none of that is remotely true what we did have was a wage price spiral workers demanding large wage increases those were the days when workers actually could make demands because they expected lots of inflation firms raising prices because of rising costs all exacerbated by big oil shocks it was mainly a case of self fulfilling expectations and the problem was to break the cycle so why did we need a terrible recession not to pay for our past sins but simply as a way to cool the action was there a better way ideally we should have been able to get all the relevant parties in a room and say look this inflation has to stop you workers reduce your wage demands you businesses cancel your price increases and for our part we agree to stop printing money so the whole thing is over that way you d get price stability without the recession none of that is remotely true well some of it maybe benefit of the doubt wages and prices were going up you could call that a wage price spiral and it was exacerbated by oil and perhaps it became a case of self fulfilling expectations and god knows people suck the dick of expectations to this day because of it but you see it didn t start with expectations it didn t start with the wage price spiral and it didn t start with oil it started with rising financial costs posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments saturday may 25 2013 clair brown periods of economic growth traditionally are characterized by greater equality of classes every once in a while something just strikes you and inexplicably you like it clair brown s american standards of living 1918 1988 struck me that way after googling saving by quintile turned up the book see yesterday s post i went back and started reading from the beginning got all the way to page six before i had to stop and write this new post here s the part that did me in periods of economic growth traditionally are characterized by greater equality of classes consequently the growth in real expenditures across classes deviates from the growth in total output as families in a lower class experience greater growth in consumption than families in a higher class since government policies heavily influence total output and relative incomes and because each class will try to maintain its relative position shifts in income inequality tend to have a cyclical nature as a class that loses out relatively in one period tries to improve its position in the next period a period of increasing inequality usually follows a period of decreasing inequality now if somebody had written that for wikipedia there would be a comment attached to it reading this article needs citations for verification you know what it s an important statement for me so i need citations i need references i need verification i need emmanuel saez s graph graph 1 the top decile income share in the united states 1917 2007 from striking it richer pdf 2009 by emmanuel saez greater equality 1942 1978 golden age of growth 1947 1973 periods of economic growth traditionally are characterized by greater equality of classes evidence well it s a start i particularly like the idea that inequality might run in some sort of cyclical pattern that idea fits right in with my world view shows up in the graph too actually as arnold toynbee may already have said if there are cyclical patterns on a civilizational scale to be found in our world then we ought to start with that and always remember that the details probably fit the larger pattern you don t always need to fit details to the larger pattern but the pattern can help to resolve ambiguities it can provide guidance and it can call some things plain silly like the idea that economic growth always clings to an invariant trend economists like to think economic growth tends to trend they say things like gdp is trend stationary they speak of an output gap the output gap is the gap between where gdp is now and where it would be if it had stayed on trend people who speak of an output gap think in terms of a long term trend of growth let me see if i can get this right stochastic means random and is the opposite of deterministic at mathworks they look at a graph of us gdp and identify it as a nonstationary as opposed to stationary stochastic process nonstationary because there is a very obvious upward trend visible on the graph mathworks calls this upward trend a mean trend and describes it as a violation of stationarity so it is a nonstationary stochastic process they identify two such trend types where the mean trend is deterministic and where the mean trend is stochastic note these two are opposites per our introductory definitions just above so gdp is a nonstationary stochastic process where the nonstationary part the trend part might be deterministic or might be stochastic if it is deterministic we have a deterministic nonstationary stochastic process if it is stochastic we have a stochastic nonstationary stochastic process ain t this fun anyway the deterministic one is said to be trend stationary the other one according to eduardo rossi s pdf page 4 is said to have a unit root and this isn t just boring arithmetic it s economics with a hard on here s the thing the path of gdp is something stochastic the stochastic part means it s random in the sense i think that we cannot know whether the next report will be higher or lower than anybody s guess that s the marginal piece of it the next piece of data part the other part of it is the long term piece you know the trend is it a trend or is it as random as the next piece of data is it deterministic or stochastic that is the question but that is their question not mine for me it s a toynbee thing left to its own devices the economy will follow a path of growth and decline that encompasses many centuries and many nation states left to its own devices the economy will conform to the demands of human nature and to the demands of wealth left to its own devices we get what looks to us to be the rise and fall of civilizations it doesn t have to be that way of course we could understand that what s happening is the result of such forces and we could choose a different path but that s a difficult thing to achieve because everyone clings to their political opinions even when they damn well know the problems are economic it s a catch 22 if we leave our economy to the wiles of human nature we end up with the decline and fall of civilization and the only thing we have to prevent that sad end is human nature so how to resolve the deterministic slash stochastic trend stationary slash unit root dilemma think big picture sometimes it s one way sometimes the other when the economy s growing vigorously for twenty years or more or when a nation is young and vigorous you ve got a deterministic trend when economic problems arise faster than we can invent solutions and growth sucks ass well you get lots of people chanting unit root unit root unit root and you know what at that moment they re right posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments labels cycle of civilization friday may 24 2013 reasons for the fall of the saving rate from the saving decline macro facts micro behavior pdf by david bunting in the journal of economic behavior organization between 1952 and 1984 the aggregate personal saving rate as calculated from national income and product account nipa data by the bureau of economic analysis bea averaged 9 0 percent however after 1984 the personal saving rate collapsed as the bea rate fell nine percentage points reasons for this rise and fall remain controversial while relatively steady saving rates facilitated development of permanent spending theories during the 1950s and 1960s modigliani and brumberg 1954 friedman 1957 these theories have been unable to explain shifts in saving behavior in the 1980s and the collapse in saving rates thereafter thought it was interesting bunting opens a door to the rejection of friedman 1957 but before that he writes reasons for this rise and fall of the saving rate remain controversial and that brings me to this resolution of that controversy from american standards of living 1918 1988 google book by clair brown describing differences between 1973 and 1988 as earnings failed to continue their rapid upward climb families sought to augment income through more hours of employment especially for wives because spending rates were lower and saving rates were higher in 1973 than in 1988 emulation of 1973 consumption patterns would have required families to reduce their consumption in many areas including shelter household operations and food per capita instead families increased their spending rate rather than reduce their consumption standards overall expenditures rose faster than incomes the difference was financed by reduced savings and a smaller family size along with employer provided health insurance covering more health care expenses and energy saving advances in fuel and utilities a google search turned up the two links and i happened to read them one after the other they seem to fit together like question and answer posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments labels fun with the mpc thursday may 23 2013 tweakin the bull from the congressional research service the fall and rise of household saving a pdf by brian w cashell specialist in macroeconomic policy from do the rich save more a pdf by dynan skinner and zeldes from rama bijapurkar a breakdown of income saving and spending in india household income and savings distribution from ndssp adjusted 2003 4 and expenditure distribution from nss deciles income distribution saving distribution expenditure distribution 1 lowest 2 0 0 6 2 5 2 3 2 1 4 3 8 3 4 1 2 2 4 7 4 5 4 3 6 6 0 5 6 2 4 5 6 8 6 8 8 7 3 9 3 7 8 4 7 1 8 9 8 11 9 11 1 12 2 9 15 8 16 8 15 5 10 highest 34 1 45 3 30 4 total 100 100 100 top 20 49 9 62 1 45 9 top 5 22 7 31 4 19 9 top 1 8 6 12 6 7 3 the higher the income per capita per household the higher their savings as well 34 of total income is earned by top 10 of the households when we look at the saving pattern across economic status it is found that as high as 45 3 of the savings comes from the richest 10 of the households the poorest 20 of the households contribute just 5 to india s total personal disposable income in case of household saving also only 2 of the savings come from these households how i interpret the numbers the first decile receives 2 0 of the income does 0 6 of the saving and does 2 5 of the spending the second decile etc note that the lower 8 deciles all spend more and save less than their share of income the top two deciles spend less and save more than their share but i guess no matter how much data you gather in support of the marginal propensity to consume none of it matters because as paul krugman says it s true that at any given point in time the rich have much higher savings rates than the poor since milton friedman however we ve know that this fact is to an important degree a sort of statistical illusion to an important degree to what degree half let s say half so then half of the evidence supporting the mpc is a statistical illusion it has no significance so the other half is not illusion it is clear it has significance and it stands in support of the mpc it s all in how you tweak the bullshit isn t it posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments labels fun with the mpc wednesday may 22 2013 i know from mine of 11 may 2013 i know that any time you divide nominal something by real something you are fact...
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