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g a graph the economics of the past 40 years big v free bird a brief kind word for shiller i have no clever title for this post no words ei a shower of gold like cracker jack a second glance just a glimpse capital gains coherence loses the fed on shadow banking money measures in context a couple more glances echoes this guy doesn t this guy thinks like i think nuts and bad words nope it wasn t all downhill ambsl goes back to 1918 dear ben why d they do that i have a dollar they can use top ten private debt is the problem yes parsing waldman 5 selected comments parsing waldman 4 like star trek parsing waldman 3 black helicopters parsing waldman 2 wage suppression parsing waldman 1 twentieth century policy september 53 august 54 july 52 june 50 may 45 april 54 march 46 february 37 january 57 2010 361 december 51 november 43 october 47 september 43 august 35 july 39 june 31 may 9 april 8 march 12 february 23 january 20 2009 79 december 17 november 10 october 14 september 20 august 3 july 7 june 4 april 1 march 1 february 1 january 1 links the 12 pages pdf html scribd money as credit paul krugman john mason gavin kennedy crisis timeline 1 crisis timeline 2 statistical abstracts measuringworth bea economic accounts bls inflation jobs flow of funds debt st louis fed fred money stock 1947 58 economagic usgovernmentspending top tax rates recession dates corp taxes 2006 irs tax data pk sources historicalstatistics org historical charts perot charts mark wieczorek the secret economist econompic john williams sgs crystal bull aquinum s razor flavianopolis william f hummell ecometry the l curve businomics blog on banking crises cybereconomics tim duy like a father to me worthwhile canadian the skeptical optimist nextblog better of thought action the troublesome economist the candid blogger blended purple frozen arctic tundra truth addicts anon jbpeebles mayday books dredd blog dolor s rants the 40 year old freshman thinking on the margin redonomics broad oak unsettling economics irrational expectations theory2life prac spoiler tips vin s read more faq s image host a very nice menu www w3 schools bloogger help image test and t2 blogger sentral html color codes google translate link within a page supreme court jester dave ross 1 dave ross 2 organize your stuff interesting jim kardi teknomo numerical ignorance mental workout g scaled data g normalized data tufte data analysis arthurian website about me contact labels real is a calculation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1966 1970s growth 1986 2000 2013 revision 400k smoothing a call for better argument a little r n r accelerated repayment of debt accidental discoveries adjusting debt for inflation artish b is greater than a b h finte behavioral ec best put downs bullard s earthquake c d of wealth calculating labor share civ civilization coinage coping cost and productivity cost push cost push inflation credit efficiency crisis chronicles cycle of civilization debasement debt debt and context debt and inflation debt and recovery debt bulge debt good and bad debt is not credit debt productivity debt to gdp debt to gdp in comments def credit def debt def economic activity def financial cost def gdp def general equilibrium def inflation def inside money def investment def issue and reissue def laffer limit def outside money deflation demand pull inflation disarray dpd echoes economic forces economics v the economy eroc erosion of debt evolution of the excuse expectations factors failure s embrace fallacy of composition fcm fed policy federal spending feedback loops final spending financial cost financialization five words five digit years forget about debt fpi fred free banking era full disclosure fun with the mpc gang8 gds gold shortage gresham s law gross domestic spending growth rate calc growth phase growth historical revisionism hoarding hodrick prescott household debt hover craft how to pay for it humor because you might not know if i didn t say i couldn t sleep iceberg inflation introduction is it ego captain jerry says krugman laffer curve limits long and variable loops malaise matched set fekete math problems medium of account military spending milton friedman mmt money multiplier more debt than money is policy motives moving average new tools of policy non linear not only household debt oil parameters for debt pfi policy predicting recession price controls printing vs spending problem x productivity questions r reading and writing red and green reduction reviews scott sumner sequence 2 serfdom simulacron simulated evidence slack special report spreadsheeting stagflation standard deviation star trek stimulus sumner symmetry in deception taxes taylor rule the difference between debt and credit the economy is transaction the k r shift the long decline the supply side the tint knob they don t know timeline tongue in cheek tot ulc umic unsustainable urgency verdoorn waste fraud abuse withering shoots zoho the new arthurian economics copyright 2010 2018 arthur shipman monday october 31 2011 feet is not the same as feet per second one guy was talking about a pellet gun that shoots pellets at 1200 feet per second the other guy said 1200 feet that s two football fields that s pretty far i said nothing because i don t know but the pellets don t go 1200 feet if gravity pulls the pellet down at 16 feet per second and if you are holding the gun about four feet above level ground and shooting level then the pellet will be in the air only about a quarter of a second so it will travel about 300 feet posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 8 comments sunday october 30 2011 easier the second time i got this from billy mitchell graph 1 i threw some trends on billy s graph and jazzbumpa threw them back at me i want to do more with trends using this same graph as a sample so now i need the numbers i found this graph at the bls link billy provides graph 2 bls provides the data in an excel file pretty nice it goes back to 1939 monthly numbers funny thing though each year is on its own row with one column for each month just like the consumer price index file i got the other day so it was another opportunity to practice my transposing skills to get all those 12 cell rows turned and moved and properly aligned with all the data in one column so i can more easily use it for graphs and calculations i did it this time in excel rather than open office calc i did the same thing as before inserting columns at the left and doing my work there 1 in excel i typed jan 1939 and when i hit enter it got translated into jan 39 so excel recognized it as a date after i entered the next two months of 1939 i grabbed all three cells and dragged em down and excel filled in the whole column for me with all the dates i needed perhaps in open office if i explicitly formatted the cell as a date it would have filled in all the dates for me when i tried dragging the group of three cells see steps 8 and 9 of yesterday s early post i notice it is much easier to keep track of what i m doing with this source data because this time the file does not have the blank line every fifth year i also noticed the rhythm of the process first select a dozen cells and press ctrl c then click a temporary destination and press ctrl v and then ctrl x click a permanent destination and press ctrl v and then ctrl c click a temporary destination and press ctrl v and then ctrl x click a permanent destination and press ctrl v and then ctrl c click a temporary destination and press ctrl v and then ctrl x click a permanent destination and press ctrl v and then ctrl c and like that to the end except at the end you don t need the last ctrl c because there are no more years to copy but it s symmetrical the ctrl c that s missing from the end of the sequence appears at the start anyway the whole rearranging the data thing took less than half an hour and that s for all the years since 1939 it goes quick spending that much time with the numbers it occurred to me how unusual it is that the numbers don t keep rising economic numbers always go up but not these numbers posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments labels spreadsheeting saturday october 29 2011 results after getting my ducks all in a row or all in a column actually i made a graph of the cpi u numbers graph 1 not very inspiring that s okay the exercise is its own reward the point of the exercise though was to look at prices during the great depression going back a few days i had quoted a futurecast post the 8 price inflation that afflicted the depression ravaged economy through the first six months of 1937 after four years of new deal monetary inflation occurred despite unemployment rates in excess of 14 and jazz said bullshit so naturally i had to look but it s hard to see the great depression from here so i looked at a smaller chunk of the cpi graph 2 starts out at 10 was 100 sometime around 1983 where is it now around 225 by the first graph so prices went up ten fold between 1913 and 1983 and have roughly doubled since a little more than doubled tenfold in 70 years doubled in say 23 years for what that s worth 23 once doubled 23 twice four fold in 46 years 23 three times eight fold in 69 years call it 70 so we have done a little better since 1983 an eight times increase as opposed to a ten times increase in prices based on ballpark numbers and 70 year trends not really very good at all is it anyway the federal reserve is gonna be 100 years old pretty soon and i think you should be nice to it i do yeah they can do better but only if they know how meanwhile the great depression no no not this one the other one 1929 here s inflation for 1913 1945 again this time show as a rate rather than a level percent change from year ago numbers starts at 1914 actually seeing the change from 1913 well i don t see any 8 inflation rate in any month of the great depression five percent max and that only briefly jazz was right posted by the arthurian at 6 00 am 5 comments exercise a bit off topic but you might find this handy if i happen to know things about excel that you don t then again if you know an easier way to do something i have done here please do let me know jazz recently provided a great link for cpi numbers going all the way back to 1913 monthly numbers from a strong source the bureau of labor statistics trouble is each year s numbers are all on one row all 12 months and two year values besides then the next year s numbers are on the next line this is not a useful format for graphing in my experience i want the numbers all in one column this post is about what i came up with to put all those cpi numbers into one column in order with the minimum amount of repetitive work and the minimum risk of error i did all this in openoffice calc which is free which is why i have it it has its own quirks but it does work a lot like excel what i ve done here will work in excel if you ve got it 1 i went to the bls link and saved the page in firefox on the firefox menu click save page as firefox wants to save the page as a text file which is fine 2 i saved it to the desktop i save everything to the desktop everybody laughs when they see how littered my desktop is you can save it wherever you want but when you can t find it i ll laugh at you i right clicked on the file and from the pop up menu i use windows clicked open with and from the sub menu openoffice org calc something similar should work if you have excel installed worst case open excel click file open change the file type to include txt files and select the bls file filename cpiai txt something like that 3 i had to fiddle with the text import window that opened up but i got exactly what i wanted on the third try the cpi data from bls with a year on each row and a column for each month not what i wanted for a final product but what i wanted to start with 4 remember to save the file as an open office spreadsheet or an excel spreadsheet don t leave it as the default type a text file because you will lose all your improvements when you save and close the thing this doesn t sound like economics at all does it sounds like my other passion fiddling with computers while rome burns in open office or excel whatever now you have a copy of the bls cpi data all you have to do now is make it useful this is where the power of a spreadsheet can really save you some work 5 i renamed the worksheet source and and made a copy of the sheet to make my changes in yeah it is easy enough to go get the thing again but is is easier just to make another copy of the source sheet if i need it 6 i narrowed down the columns so i could fit more on my screen my monitor is turned portrait so typically i can see a lot of rows and not a lot of columns 7 i inserted four columns to the left of column a making some blank space at the left side of the worksheet i left a couple blank cells at top just out of habit often they come in handy in cell a3 i entered date and in cell b3 cpi u 8 now the fun begins you know the repetitive part and figuring out how to minimize the repetition in cell a4 one row down from the cell where i typed date i entered jan 1913 which is of course where the bls numbers start below it i typed feb 1913 and below that mar 1913 then i selected those three cells and dragged em down the screen expecting it to automatically fill in apr 1913 and the rest of the months of 1913 and beyond 9 it didn t work so i typed in the rest of the months for 1913 always using 3 letter abbreviations for no reason except i thought it might be good to keep the lengths all the same turned out it was 10 when i got to january 1914 i stopped obviously there had to be a better way than typing every month and year for a hundred years worth of months 11 with the cursor sitting in cell a16 i looked the situation over i knew i wanted the letters jan from cell a4 and a space and the yearvalue from cell a4 with 1 added to it and actually i wanted that in every cell from here on down not jan but the month name from 12 rows up and the yearvalue from 12 rows up with 1 added to it 12 i can do that actually i couldn t because open office calc wants semicolons between the numbers where excel wants commas as i recall but the help was helpful and i figured it out long before i would have been done typing the next ten years of numbers manually and it worked you can see the formula i used in the image below 13 14 in cell a16 i typed an equal sign which tells the computer it will be doing a calculation followed by left a4 4 which tells the computer to take the first 4 characters from the left end of the text in cell a4 next i hit the spacebar once and then shift 7 for the ampersand and the spacebar once again pretty sure i need spaces there it might work without them but i don t have to care about that what the ampersand does is sticks chunks of text together what it will do for me is stick the three letters jan and the fourth character a space into cell a16 followed by whatever i put after the ampersand which i didn t tell you about yet see...
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