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Text of the page (random words):
maybe that s why i didn t buy the book anyway that graph is huge posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 5 comments sunday november 16 2014 rooting for inflation from vox the nairu explained why economists don t want unemployment to drop too low by matthew yglesias a middle ground would be to argue that perhaps the nairu did correctly characterize the economy of the 1970s back then after all a large share of the american workforce was represented by labor unions union contracts often included clauses that provided for automatic raises in the case of inflation it s easy to see why any particular person would love to have such a clause in his contract but it s also easy to see how widespread use of such clauses could inadvertently set off a spiral whether or not this was the case three or four decades ago it s not a major issue in the american economy today when many fewer workers have such contracts that s the whole paragraph here s the piece of it that s relevant for today s post it s not a major issue in the american economy today when many fewer workers have such contracts if you re thinking a little more inflation would help reduce our debt you might want to think about whether your paycheck would be seeing that inflation debt doesn t inflate when wages inflate so inflation can be helpful though i do not favor that solution but if prices inflate and wages do not increasing inflation will leave us in worse shape than we re in now posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments saturday november 15 2014 the role of the state in economic growth from the abstract of the role of the state in economic growth pdf 59 pages by erik s reinert this paper attempts to trace and describe the role played by the government sector the state in promoting economic growth in western societies since the renaissance one important conclusion is that the antagonism between state and market which has characterised the twentieth century is a relatively new phenomenon since the renaissance one very important task of the state has been to create well functioning markets by providing a legal framework standards credit physical infrastructure and if necessary to function temporarily as an entrepreneur of last resort posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments friday november 14 2014 real adjusted total bullshit some time around 1994 apparently they changed the definition of m1 money before 1994 the definition of m1sl money included sweeps after 1994 it didn t so now if you want to look at the same money measure before and after 1994 you have to look at what s called m1 adjusted for retail sweeps or m1adj but this nomenclature is wrong it s backwards they changed the definition of m1 money m1sl that was the change so when you look at m1sl what you see after 1994 is not the same measure as before 1994 when they made the change they should have made a new series to show the new numbers this new series is the one that should have been called adjusted for retail sweeps i should be able to look at the old m1 money series m1sl and not see numbers that change suddenly and dramatically because of the adjustment graph 1 m1sl blue and m1adj red the data series title m1 adjusted for retail sweeps implies that the change occurs in the m1adj data series when really the change occurs in m1sl the data series whose title makes no mention of the adjustment this is exactly the same kind of deceptive language you get when economists take gdp a measure of the stuff we actually bought at prices we actually paid for it when they take gdp and take the inflation out of it and call the result real gdp total bullshit posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments thursday november 13 2014 u s public and private debt relative to gdp 1916 1970 graph 1 and the more recent picture graph 2 work with me here graph 1 shows private debt red at a high level in the 1920s and rising public debt was low by comparison but drawn upward by troubles world war one and the great depression and world war two from around 1933 private debt started falling finally during world war two falling below the level of public debt after the time of troubles public debt blue started falling private debt red started rising and our economy had a golden age graph 2 shows that after the golden age public debt blue fell a little more then leveled off and finally started rising rising since about 1980 after the golden age private debt red continued to rise then continued to rise and finally rose until the sudden crisis that occurred just before 2010 the late peak just before 2010 i want to compare it to the 1930s peak during the great depression i want to compare the two situations the two sets of circumstances before the time of the first peak private debt was high but then it fell severely public debt grew in response to the troubles and finally public debt rose above the level of private debt soon thereafter the troubles disappeared before the time of the second peak private debt was high and it continued to rise without letup public debt grew in response to troubles that arose but private debt continued to grow faster than public debt therefore there was no end of troubles after 1974 there was no end of troubles after 1987 and there is no end of troubles today what s different about the two peaks what s different is the growth of private debt during the great depression private debt collapsed but since that time since the end of the second world war there has been no collapse of private debt no collapse until the crisis private debt only grew higher and if you think of it in simple terms you can see that the end of troubles for some reason requires public debt to rise above the level of private debt just as it did in the 1940s well that was easy to do in the 1940s for private debt was falling since probably 1966 we have needed public debt to again rise above the level of private debt but this has been impossible to achieve because private debt has been rising faster than public debt the people who say we need more federal spending are right except for one thing federal spending has been more since 1980 and it has not solved the problem it has not solved the problem because private debt is not falling private debt is growing faster than public debt that is what has to change you with me posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 3 comments wednesday november 12 2014 this was a direct challenge to keynesian style fiscal policy and ushered in monetarism from my monthly repec stats i got to top 25 working papers by file downloads 2014 10 where the top item was how did we get to where we are now reflections on 50 years of macroeconomic and financial econometrics by michael wickens it s a 53 page pdf i ll never get to the end of it i have to say though that it is fascinating and easy reading far as i ve got this is from the opening of section 2 macroeconomic models this procrustean approach to macroeconomic modelling was challenged by a number of undermining analyses that achieved considerable prominence and led to the increased use of small scale models one of the first such studies was by anderson and jordan 1968 who found that in a simple regression of output on distributed lags of the money supply and government expenditures it was money that was significant and not government expenditures this was a direct challenge to keynesian style fiscal policy and ushered in monetarism so by page eight i tripped over the sentence that serves as the title of this post sending me off in search of anderson and jordan 1968 i want to know what years andersen and jordan studied that gave them the results they got why because the economy changes that s why anderson and jordan found that it was money that was significant and not government expenditures andersen and jordan turned up at the st louis fed monetary and fiscal actions a test of their relative importance in economic stabilization pdf 14 pages andersen and jordan the data are seasonally adjusted quarterly averages for the period from the first quarter of 1952 to the second quarter of 1968 so yes the andersen jordan paper examines the economy s reactions in a brief window at a time when the economy s performance was particularly good the irony is that the economy s performance in the 1950s and 60s was particularly good because of the large amount of government expenditures in the 1940s posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 4 comments tuesday november 11 2014 a few minor changes from qe s seeds are already sown by david howden at bastiat mises when a financial crisis or economic recession hits it s almost never because of some event that apparently happened at the same time the crisis of 2008 did not occur because of the collapse of lehman brothers it happened because the whole financial system and greater economy were fragile following years of cheap credit at the hands of the greenspan fed if anything lehman was a result of this and a great if unfortunate example of the type of bad business decisions firms are lured into by loose money it wasn t the cause of the troubles but a result of them and if lehman didn t go under to spark the credit crunch some other fragile financial institution would have i think that s just about exactly right if i were to change anything in it i d cut out following years of cheap credit at the hands of the greenspan fed and replace it with something like because of our unrelenting encouragement of credit use and our failure to encourage repayment of debt i don t blame greenspan the problematic policy existed long before greenspan anyway the policy arises from congress not from the fed and i don t blame easy credit credit should be easy i blame failure to repay or the failure of policy to accelerate repayment of debt enough to offset the accelerated use of credit we borrow faster than we pay back therefore debt accumulates and it s not that loose credit lures people into bad business decisions rather it s accumulating debt that turns good decisions into bad ones posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 3 comments monday november 10 2014 money relative to gdp rates of growth graph 1 percent change in money relative to gdp 1916 1970 graph 2 percent change in money relative to gdp 1970 2014 click either graph for source page google sheets for graph 1 fred for 2 on both graphs base money shown in gold m2 money in red graph 1 shows m1 money blue while 2 shows mzm green on both graphs the different money measures all move together the money measures all move in the same direction and change at the same time this generalization appears to be somewhat less true of the second graph than the first but even on the second graph it is for the most part correct there are no lags between base money and the other moneys as there are between base money and inflation evidently there are lags between all the moneys and inflation what does this mean it means that the metabolism of the economy the source of lag does not depend on the quantity of money or at least it doesn t always depend on the quantity of money this is premature but i m tempted to say it depends on the willingness to spend posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 4 comments labels long and variable sunday november 9 2014 the volume of trade in the time of charlemagne from page 97 of john j butt s daily life in the age of charlemagne some historians have seen the main purpose of coins in the eighth and ninth centuries as stored value because many of the coins that have been discovered have been in buried hoarded collections and because many of the carolingian coins look relatively new and unworn however the coins that are discovered are often likely to be ones buried in a hoard it is less common to find individual coins and unlikely that bog people will be discovered with pockets loaded with coins second carolingian coins were struck or minted very carefully and very heavily meaning that the dies for casting were cut deeply this produced coins with high and sharp relief therefore they often still look in mint condition these coins were not meant just for the nobility nor as a means for saving value for they were minted in a number of locations around the kingdom including aachen amiens quentovic rheims rouen paris lyon strasbourg verdun melle milan pavia dinant maastricht and dorestad charlemagne tried to consolidate minting to the royal palace at aachen but was unsuccessful in doing so the existence of so many mints indicates that coins were needed regularly and continuously around the kingdom and there could be no other purpose than trade that would require such continuous supply of coins some historians have suggested that the purpose of coins was for hoarding of treasure or that they were used solely by large scale merchants but the number of coins in circulation proves that coinage was primarily for regular trade there has been a great deal of debate about the number of coins that were in circulation in the carolingian empire an estimate has been made for the number of coins minted in mercia england under king offa a contemporary of charlemagne of 6 7 million estimates would suggest that the number of coins minted during charlemagne s reign was considerably larger than this perhaps several times this even 10 million coins would provide numbers far beyond savings of treasure and even beyond use by a few large scale merchants numbers such as these would suggest that many people were using coins on a regular basis for everyday trade bog people i like that the first paragraph i have no trouble with coins are likely to be discovered in hoards sure the coins had sharp relief okay coins were minted in several places fine the second and third paragraphs excerpted here are a single paragraph in the original the existence of so many mints john butt writes indicates that coins were needed regularly and continuously around the kingdom maybe or maybe it was a sign of prestige to have a mint maybe it meant the king liked you better and every liege lord wanted one maybe charlemagne handed out mints for good behavior i m no historian i just poke things with a stick but the reading i ve done must have been from works written by some of those some historians who said the main purpose of coins was to store value because i think there was a lot of that in charlemagne s time i think charlemagne tried to stimulate the economy i think either he changed that trend or he lived at a time when the trend was starting to change or more likely both but i think it s incorrect to convey the idea that the volume of trade then was in any sense comparable to trade today i think john butt s argument is weak why is it unlikely that bog people will be discovered with pockets loaded with coins perhaps because those people used coins far less than john butt says i think people have a tendency to interpret things in terms they understand the economy was different in charlemagne s time than it is today i think john butt is interpreting charlemagne s...
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