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Text of the page (random words):
creasingly higher peaks as time goes by my graph shows that too in blue but if you look at the red peaks growth with inflation stripped away the trend is clearly down real economic growth was getting slower before 1980 not faster we definitely put too much emphasis on finance in this economy lance roberts is right about that and we definitely have too much private debt in this economy so much that it hinders growth and yes the inflation that roberts fails to point out did help to keep debt levels low until around 1980 but the growth that he attributes to all those things that i agree with the growth he points to explicitly nearly 15 annual growth must be attributed to inflation it pains me to say it because i agree with so much of what he says posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments wednesday july 9 2014 turn off your television sets and turn on your speakers posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments tuesday july 8 2014 finding philippon s fineff pdf i found it sort of here better than nothing here s figure 1 here it is as a pdf from ssrn free thanks guys now i have to go and backfill a few of my posts with a new copy of the figure 1 graph when i wrote those posts i trusted foolishly that phillippon s paper would always be available at stern where i first found it it ain t ps at ssrn the pdf filename is ssrn id1972808 edit 18 may 2017 but maybe the graph i want is philippon s figure 7 from that pdf graph 2 from has the u s finance industry become less efficient posted by the arthurian at 10 00 pm 0 comments gross domestic spending documentation this post provides links to two excel files and eleven short pdfs the gds data series file is outputs the result of my industry the business population file is inputs the source data that i used the gds data series xls file is an excel file generated by openoffice calc the file contains one sheet the first two columns of the sheet contain the year and gds values columns farther to the right document the calculations used to come up with the numbers the business population xls spreadsheet is an excel file generated by openoffice calc the file contains two sheets the data entry sheet lists the source files and data values obtained from them columns further to the right are notes on units and on the column headers which evolved a bit over the years note that there is some duplication of data on this sheet as i was comparing the values provided by newer and older sources at the overlaps this duplication is eliminated from the other sheet in the file the other sheet in this file is named arts data series this sheet lists the source file the year and number receipts and net profit for total business enterprises that is for sole proprietorships partnerships and corporations combined for 1959 through 2008 in order to document the source data for the gds series i extracted individual pages from various source pdfs the extracted files are typically one page pdfs to extract the relevant pages i just printed them to dopdf the 12s0744 pdf isn t mine i found it on the web somebody else was thinking along the same lines i was apparently all files are stored on google drive the old google docs pdf pages period source hs70 v 1 12 1 1959 1966 historical statistics bicentennial ed sa74 table 775 1 1967 1968 statistical abstract 1974 sa76 table 823 1 1969 1971 statistical abstract 1976 sa78 table 915 1 1972 1974 statistical abstract 1978 sa85 table 868 1 1975 1979 statistical abstract 1985 sa89 table 846 1 1980 1984 statistical abstract 1989 sa92 table 827 1 1985 1987 statistical abstract 1992 sa2000 table 855 1 1988 1994 statistical abstract 2000 sa0405 table 716 1 1995 1999 statistical abstract 2004 05 sa09 table 722 1 2000 2003 statistical abstract 2009 12s0744 1 2004 2008 statistical abstract 2012 table style by textfixer com the source pdfs large files are still available from census gov but the 2012 abstract is the last one they issued you know spending cuts posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments labels gross domestic spending monday july 7 2014 preliminary notes what does it mean when gds increases relative to gdp i showed this graph on 2 july graph 1 gross domestic spending as a percent of gross domestic product it turned out that the raised area in the 1970s and thereabouts showed a fair similarity to the rate of inflation in those inflationary years got me thinkin gdp is gross domestic product the the sum of final spending in our economy in a year gds is gross domestic spending the total of final and non final spending in our economy in a year the increases in gds are measured in dollar volume not number of transactions or any such thing it s a dollar number so if gds increases it is because spending increased plain and simple same with gdp one major effect of a change in the gds gdp ratio would seem to be a change in spending pressures that is inflation pressures whatever cause may lie behind the increase in spending then one fact remains the spending increased the trend of gds gdp then in the 1970s was that costs increased faster than income gds increased faster than gdp if this is correct i must be able to see it in business profits perhaps profits relative to gdp certainly in profits relative to expenses i ll take that challenge graph 2 total business deductions peak in 1982 as a share of gross income yeah it stands up to the challenge spending increased faster than revenue until 1982 and more slowly after that year if deductions rose till 1982 and then fell as a share of revenue then profit must have done the opposite graph 3 business profits hit bottom in 1982 trending upward thereafter that should come as no surprise profits tended down until 1982 and up thereafter posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments labels gross domestic spending sunday july 6 2014 in case you missed it yesterday a comparison of gross output the output consumed by production and the net output that remains as against gross domestic product and my measure gross domestic spending which adds nonfinal business spending to gdp here s the picture graph 2 the blue line is u s gross output the measure of what we produce in a year the red line is intermediate consumption the measure of output consumed in the process of producing output it is almost half gross output the red is almost half the blue the green line is output left over after using up output red to produce output blue the green line is just a little over half the blue the red line is just a little under half the green is just a little over the gold line is gdp it is approximately equal to the green the gold line we call it gross domestic product but really it is the part of output left over after using output to produce output almost the same as the green line it differs for reasons you can read at wikipedia the brown line is gross domestic spending it is gdp plus the business spending that is written off as tax deductions in the process of producing output data sources for graph 2 blue red green unsna via undata gold fred brown arthurian here s the zoho posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments labels gross domestic spending saturday july 5 2014 unsna us gross output 1987 2011 unsna is un sna the united nations system of national accounts like nipa except nipa is pleasing to the ear and unsna sounds like something you d wipe off with a kleenex i googled unsna data historical and found system of national accounts 2008 united nations so i went there looking for data i clicked data on their blue menu bar that brought me to their national accounts data page text and links at the end of the second paragraph is a link to undata that s the one you want i suppose i could eliminate the previous paragraph and just give you the undata link direct but i m trying to give you a sense of the struggle perseverance in the search for data plus i write this stuff down so i can find my way back later anyway the undata page has a search box so now we re making some progress i searched for gross output i got two hits two is good what the hell am i supposed to do with 13 million hits i take table 2 6 output gross value added and fixed assets by industries at current prices isic rev 4 because it has 91124 records the other one isic rev 3 must be older and has half a million records maybe i ll look at that later now we re getting to the meat the rev 4 link gives me this the main body of the default page is a table of info about armenia it consists of several columns of info i don t want but there are select filters scrollboxes on the left the first one is countries so i can look at u s data instead their scrollbar is neat you just hover over the little down arrow and the list of countries scrolls slow enough you can read it but not so slow that you re bored in the second filter box you can pick years for data i want all the years naturally now the important part that you must not miss just below the second filter list there is a link that says more you ll want to click that it lets you zoom in closer to the data you want click the more and you get two additional filter boxes at the top of the third box is total economy that s the one i want the other options are industry specific i want big picture the last filter box lets you pick the data you want to see that s a big deal basically i wanted the first three that appear in the filter window the ones i saw at wikipedia yesterday gross output intermediate consumption and gross value added the last of these being approximately equal to gdp oh and most important be sure to click the apply filters link it s below the last filter box that s the magic that makes undata do what you want oh funny thing while writing this post i was going through the motions to verify the steps but i didn t pick the country and the years before i clicked more then after i told you about all four filters i tried to pick the u s and follow through the process but the thing wouldn t let me pick the u s the list of countries scrolled down as far as the s s and no further i clicked less to go back to the two filter screen and tried again no good but i refreshed the page and then it worked okay in case you run into trouble using the thing when i was done selecting my filter options i clicked apply filters and the screen changed to show the data i wanted to see and if you don t know about csv as the first of the undata screen captures shows across the top above the table of data are options including download and select columns both look useful i used download which gives some format options first time i tried xml but when i loaded it into openoffice calc i got a blank spreadsheet so then i tried the value separated option identified as comma sheesh what an awkward way to say csv and it worked fine gave me a zip file had to extract the data file from the zip before i could use it i just put it on my desktop along with everything else then i right clicked the data file and picked open with openoffice calc a text import window opened i checked comma and unchecked tab or something like that to make the sample import look right then clicked ok openoffice calc opened the file right away excel would be as easy maybe easier now we re getting to the meat i saved the spreadsheet right away in spreadsheet format otherwise it stays as a csv file and csv files can t save the formatting that spreadsheets do so the next time you open the thing most of your changes are gone save it in spreadsheet format and you solve that problem i bolded the column labels in row 1 set column widths and made the text in column c wrap automatically that s the kind of formatting you lose if you keep the file as csv then because i wasn t careful with the import i had to go into column f and delete a single quote from in front of the number on every row also i deleted some columns that unsna thinks important and i don t then i uploaded it to zoho so you can see what the thing looks like here s the zoho the filename was set by the undata exporter the first row identifies the columns look at rows 2 3 and 4 column c there you have output intermediate consumption and gross value added all for 2011 as column d shows the next three rows have the same three items of data for 2010 the rows continue like that back to 1987 then from 1986 back to 1970 the only data item is gross value added before 1970 nothing still we ve got three items of data for the years 1987 to 2011 not a bad start the biggest problem i have now is that all the numbers are in column f that means i can t copy a chunk of numbers and get just gross output or just intermediate consumption or something i get a jumble in order for the data to be useful i have to separate it into different columns by type so i get three columns of data rather than one and also combine the three rows for each year into one row then i get one row for 2011 with three columns of data and one row for 2010 with three columns of data and one row for 2009 with three columns of data i could go on but i think you get my drift it s obvious isn t it so why doesn t undata know this i think they do know it they re not stupid maybe they just want to make it difficult hey i ve never seen this data used anywhere why not i think people are discouraged from using the data because it is so much work to undo the stupidities built into it by people who surely should know better i m beating around the bush here trying to avoid being explicitly rude oh well if you scrolled the spreadsheet enough to see column f you saw that the numbers are given in dollars i mean if the value is 27 170 5 billion undata gives it as 27 170 500 000 000 that s not easy to read you have to count digits so i want to convert their numbers to billions the numbers will be easier to read that way and compatible with fred s numbers that and i want to convert the three row one column format to one row three columns so the data is useful now we re getting to the meat i copied the original data sheet1 to a new sheet to make the changes figured out a calculation to move the data for me into the format that i want it s in the first few columns of sheet2 in this zoho file it only applies to the data back to 1987 where there are the three different values for each year for 1986 back to 1970 i just copied and pasted the range of cells turns out that like my column f values my year values had the single quote mark that left justifies them and makes them behave like text instead of numbers next time i ll have to be more careful with the import from csv i copied sheet2 to make a new sheet and called it sheet3 on the new sheet i copied the first few columns and pasted them as values over top of the calculations after that i could delete the source data that was formatted badly clean up the sheet and credit undata for the data and of course they also present the data backwards newest first rather than chronologically i sorted that here s what i have so far data now ready to use now we re ge...
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