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than others it is by treading on the toes of giants some links jules and james exciting new work page james old inactive work page home page jules old inactive work page jules picture blog jules stitching blog posts rss feed atom comments rss feed settle town council website james on mastodon friday november 15 2024 can we reliably reconstruct the mid pliocene warm period with sparse data and uncertain models we refer the interested reader to betteridge s law end of post ok i will add a little more this is the title of our latest last paper which came out a couple of months ago the work was a long time in progress despite being in principle a fairly run of the mill application of our previously developed methods to a new time period while the work was underway we got hold of a new data set and new collaborators which meant doing it all over again though that s not sufficient to explain my overall slowness anyway it s done now the mid pliocene warm period which could perhaps more precisely be referred to as the mid piacenzian warm period we had some discussion with reviewers about this but argued it wasn t our responsibility to enforce the less widely used name on the community especially as we were using outputs from the pliocene modelling intercomparison projects is the most recent period when the climate was thought to be substantially warmer than the pre industrial state for a significant period of time but it was more than 3 million years ago so data are sparse and imprecise and boundary conditions such as atmospheric co2 level are also not that well known nevertheless lots of modelling groups have performed simulations of this period and others have collected proxy data pertaining to the same time we basically repeated our recent ish work on the last glacial maximum using the model simulations and proxy data and as part of this compared results obtained with different types of proxy data unfortunately these disagreed substantially which led us to conclude that we really can t provide a very confident answer and even if we assume that one data set is correct we still have significant uncertainty over the result generated our weakly preferred number is 3 6 1c warmer than pre industrial but i wouldn t claim to be too confident about that that s pretty much it really more work is necessary is actually true in this instance we did produce a bunch of pictures such as this one which shows the central estimate of surface air temperature anomaly across the globe but the regional detail of the patterns isn t reliable such as the occasional spots of cooling it s just that s what the algorithm churned out posted by james annan at friday november 15 2024 0 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels blueskiesresearch climate science thursday december 14 2023 vallance vs vallance vs sage edmunds view i ve mainly focussed on vallance partly because he was the govt s chief scientific advisor and also co chair of sage along with whitty but also because he s had the most to say and been the most clearly wrong in what he did say but it s also interesting to compare and contrast with other prominent members of sage prof john edmunds is one such i probably don t need to show his horrendous tv interview of the 13th of march again but will do so anyway it s so endearing to see him sneering at tomas pueyo after the latter informs him correctly that the doubling time of the pandemic is about 3 days and a catastrophe is unfolding under out noses no he replies you just don t understand the data the doubling time is really 5 days and we mustn t act too soon go to 23 15 in the video in his recent testimony to the inquiry edmunds says the surveillance system was poor with the data being delayed and hard to interpret so much so that estimating the growth rate of the epidemic was difficult estimates of the doubling time varied from about 3 days to about 5 7 days depending on what method and data sources were used and getting an accurate assessment of the overall size of the epidemic was also difficult the delays and under reporting partly due to a lack of testing might well have led decision makers to conclude that they had more time to act than was the case it would have been more honest of him to say that his interpretation of the data was poor along with the rest of sage and this lead decision makers to believe they had more time to act furthermore including the estimate of 3 day doubling in that comment above is particularly misleading as sage was not acknowledging the legitimacy of such estimates at the time indeed he ridiculed the number when pueyo suggested in on the evening of 13th march but this post isn t really about sage s competence it is just about establishing what sage actually did say at the time edmunds then goes on to say surveillance started to improve after the chess covid 19 hospitalisation in england surveillance system system was launched in hospitals on around 14 15th march but it took a little while for the new data stream to stabilise here we see clear blue water between his testimony and that of vallance remember vallance talks of sage members having a road to damascus conversion over the weekend of 14 15 march due to this new data becoming available edmunds does not repeat that claim presumably because he knows it to be false perhaps he does not however contradict vallance quite clearly enough for this contradiction to be obvious to a casual reader or even those undertaking the inquiry he then rapidly passes on to the responsibility decision makers had for deciding what to do he admits that it is certainly possible that had sage been earlier clearer and more urgent in its advice then lockdown could have been introduced earlier earlier clearer and more urgent indeed he could have added correct but he didn t posted by james annan at thursday december 14 2023 0 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels covid 19 tuesday november 28 2023 vallance vs vallance vs sage letter to the uk covid 19 inquiry i ve sent the following letter to the public inquiry noting the significant and repeated inconsistencies between what vallance has recently testified about the events in mid march 2020 and what the contemporaneous documentary evidence of that period actually says this evidence includes rather amusingly vallance himself in one of the daily pm statements and press conferences i will of course post any response s received to contact covid19 public inquiry uk to whom it may concern i have noticed a discrepancy between the witness statements made to the inquiry by sir patrick vallance concerning the events of march 2020 and documentary evidence from that period it primarily concerns the estimation of the doubling time of the pandemic which was of great importance in planning the policy response to it the reason why this is important is that changing the estimate of doubling time from 5 days to 3 days would indicate that the problem was far greater more urgent and harder to deal with than was previously thought it would inevitably lead to an abrupt and urgent change in policy requirements however there is no evidence to support the claim made by vallance that sage was calling for urgent and strict action from march 16 onwards and that the govt delayed action for a further week vallance s evidence to the uk covid 19 inquiry to the inquiry vallance stated that he and other members of sage changed their minds about the growth rate of the pandemic over the weekend of 14 15 march bold emphasis added by me i think the new understanding on the weekend of 14 and 15 march was that we were much further ahead in the pandemic than we realised and the numbers that came in that week showed that there were many more cases it was far more widespread and was accelerating faster than anyone had expected we got information on 13 march which unambiguously showed that the pandemic was far more widespread and far bigger and moving faster than we had anticipated the advice given on 18 march was a consequence of our concerns about the rapid doubling time and number of infections a major reason sage did not advise earlier and more extensive interventions for example on 10 march rather than 16 march was that we were unaware of how widely seeded the virus was in the uk and how short the doubling time had become i am asked if the models underestimated the spread of the virus early in the pandemic i think that they did at least in terms of speed until shortly before the four day period of 13 to 16 march which i discuss above this was a function of poor and time delayed data and a consequent under estimation of the virus doubling time the conclusions that we are inescapably being asked to draw from these multiple statements is that a sage was underestimating the growth rate of the pandemic prior to the weekend of 14 15 march but corrected their error at that time and b the correction of this error was critical in changing their advice from a measured program of mitigation to a much more urgent suppression of the pandemic vallance s evidence to the house of commons science and technology committee july 2020 this mirrors the testimony vallance gave previously to the house of commons science and technology committee in july 2020 when the sage sub group on modelling spi m saw that the doubling time had gone down to three days which was in the middle of march that was when the advice sage issued was that the remainder of the measures should be introduced as soon as possible the advice changed because the doubling rate of the epidemic was seen to be down to three days instead of six or seven days we did not explicitly say how many weeks we were behind italy as a reason to change it was the doubling time and the realisation that on the basis of the data we were further ahead in the epidemic than had been thought by the modelling groups up until that time sage minutes of mid march and other contemporaneous evidence however contrary to these claims the minutes of the sage meeting on the 16th march very clearly stated uk cases may be doubling in number every 5 6 days and later that day vallance personally repeated the 5 day doubling figure live on tv the epidemic you d expect to double every 5 days or so two days later the minutes of the sage meeting on the 18th march again stated assuming a doubling time of around 5 7 days continues to be reasonable but this is before any of the measures brought in have had an effect these measures are likely to slow the doubling time even if there is still an exponential curve the first time 3 day doubling was hinted at in any official documentation appears to be the spi m o meeting on the 20th march nowcasting and forecasting of the current situation in the uk suggests that the doubling time of cases accruing in icu is short ranging from 3 to 5 days and this was finally endorsed in the sage minutes of the 23rd march the doubling time for icu patients is estimated to be 3 4 days it looks like sir patrick may have confused the weekends of 14 15 march with 21 22 march for example the spi m meeting he referred to above as taking place prior to sage s change of heart in the middle of march is actually documented as having taken place on the 20th march i hope you will be able to contact him to ask him about these discrepancies at the very least the documentary evidence proves that sage was still underestimating the growth rate of the pandemic right through their meetings of the 16th and 18th march only finally correcting their error on the 23rd but perhaps a more worrying implication here is that sir patrick s recollection of sage s approach towards mitigation and lockdown at this time is also in error in fact the minutes of the meetings of the 16th and 18th appear entirely supportive of the govt actions at that time which were to continue with the gradual extension of the measured program of mostly voluntary measures on the 16th sage cannot be certain that the measures being considered by hmg will be sufficient to push demand for critical care below nhs capacity but they may get very close under the rwc scenario while sage s view remains that school closures constitutes one of the less effective single measure to reduce the epidemic peak it may nevertheless become necessary to introduce school closures in order to push demand for critical care below nhs capacity however school closures could increase the risks of transmission at smaller gatherings and for more vulnerable groups as well as impacting on key workers including nhs staff as such it was agreed that further analysis and modelling of potential school closures was required demand supply and effects on spread and on the 18th sage advises that the measures already announced should have a significant effect provided compliance rates are good and in line with the assumptions additional measures will be needed if compliance rates are low they even argued that the measures implemented on the 18th including the new school closures were probably adequate to fully suppress the pandemic sage reviewed available evidence and modelling on the potential impact of school closures the evidence indicates that school closures combined with other measures could help to bring the r0 number below 1 although there is uncertainty summary the claims that the govt was responsible for a week of delay at this time and that sage was arguing for much more immediate and stringent action is not supported by a reasonable reading of the evidence indeed sage had no reason to be doing this since they still believed contrary to vallance s testimony above that the pandemic was doubling at a rate no more rapidly than 5 days at worst and furthermore as they explicitly stated on the 18th was probably being significantly slowed beyond this figure by existing policies already introduced at that time all of the quotations i have given above are directly copied from official documentation available on the govt s own web site other than that taken from the youtube video of the pm statement and press conference of the 16th march which is my own transcription please contact me if you require any help in validating the provenance or accuracy any of this evidence regards james annan jdannan blueskiesresearch org uk posted by james annan at tuesday november 28 2023 2 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels covid 19 saturday november 25 2023 vallance vs vallance vs sage why does doubling time matter one thing that all the protagonists myself included agree on is that sage s estimate of doubling time in mid march was of critical importance vallance testified forcefully to this effect in 2020 when the sage sub group on modelling spi m saw that the doubling time had gone down to three days which was in the middle of march that was when the advice sage issued was that the remainder of the 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