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Text of the page (random words):
histicated ones in the below the blue calibrated line uses data up to 14 march to estimate doubling time which comes out at 3 days the red uncalibrated line uses parameters from ferguson s march 16 paper which has a doubling time of 5 days so one obvious point is that the blue curve does a much better job of predicting what was going to happen ie the magenta x which were not used to calibrate either model but that s not the point of this particular post rather it s just that the predictions for 3d vs 5d doubling are radically different here is the longer term view now without the logarithmic scaling on the axis note the we are here point is mid march when the red and blue curves are visually indistinguishable there are several reasons why the doubling time matters firstly the estimate of current pandemic size is based on historic data edmunds specifically talks of a 12 day delay from infection to illness to testing to finally test data reporting so 100 cases reported today means 100 infections 12 days ago and that s 4 doublings at 3d doubling meaning 1 600 cases now if the doubling time was only 5d then the 12 day delay is just over 2 doublings and we wouldn t be at 1 600 cases for another 8 days 4 doublings is 20 days so that means 12 just past and another 8 in the future so one immediate consequence of a change in perceived doubling time is that we ve lost just over a week in terms of pandemic progression these calculations all ignore the proportion of infections that are undetected which can reasonably assume to be roughly constant and thus not affect the argument secondly the 3d doubling means the pandemic comes much sooner and thirdly reaches a much higher peak as shown in the 2nd graph above what was expected some time over the summer is now happening next month and it s going to be a lot worse than expected getting on for twice as many cases per day at peak finally the more rapid doubling implies a higher r0 number and this makes it harder to control with r0 2 4 ferguson s 16 march number a reduction of contacts to 40 of normal would control the virus because 2 4 x 0 4 0 96 which is less than 1 whereas a 3d doubling implies a rather higher r0 let s say 3 2 this then requires much stiffer action because 3 2 x 0 4 1 28 which is still greater than 1 a reduction to 30 of previous contact levels to get the r number below 1 3 2 x 0 3 0 96 as before is obviously much tougher to achieve especially given that family members essential work etc mean we can t really isolate perfectly quibbling over the exact value of r0 to use doesn t invalidate the general point that a higher r0 is harder to control so changing the estimate of doubling time from 5d to 3d would be a real oh shit moment for anyone involved in pandemic planning it means a we ve instantaneously lost 8 days of lead time b the pandemic peak is going to be coming a month sooner than expected c the peak is going to be almost twice as big as expected and d the control measures we were hoping to use are much less likely to be adequate any plan predicated on a 5d doubling time would immediately have to be revisited in the most extreme and urgent manner i hope i have convinced my reader that whatever plans were in place in early march under the assumption of a 5 day doubling the new understanding that the doubling time was instead 3d would cause an abrupt and substantial change of perspective this from a scientific perspective is inevitable and obvious posted by james annan at saturday november 25 2023 3 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels covid 19 thursday november 23 2023 vallance vs vallance vs sage introduction ok i m going to do a bit of analysis of vallance s evidence to the uk covid 19 inquiry focussing specifically on the events of the mid march 2020 period up to the imposition of the first lockdown on 23rd march on monday 20th nov 2023 he was interviewed by the inquiry and also provided some written testimony this is broadly speaking a more detailed version of the testimony he provided back in july 2020 to the house of commons science and technology committee which i blogged about at the time but appears significantly inconsistent with the documentary evidence provided by the minutes of sage meetings and other records of that period if you already agree with me that vallance misled the s tc with his testimony in 2020 then you might not find this very interesting but i think i might as well go over it again as there s a lot more testimony to consider including other participants in sage i ll break it up into sections in order to make it digestible and also to avoid me going round in ever decreasing circles to start with let s consider some background concepts posted by james annan at thursday november 23 2023 0 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels covid 19 tuesday november 21 2023 uk covid 19 inquiry module 2 the currently ongoing module 2 describes its aims thusly this module will look at and make recommendations upon the uk s core political and administrative decision making in relation to the covid 19 pandemic between early january 2020 until february 2022 when the remaining covid restrictions were lifted it will pay particular scrutiny to the decisions taken by the prime minister and the cabinet as advised by the civil service senior political scientific and medical advisers and relevant cabinet sub committees between early january and late march 2020 when the first national lockdown was imposed i m particularly interested in this period as it s the time that the expert scientific analysis and advice from sage was so woefully inadequate i ve blogged about this at length but just to recap the scientists were mistakenly thinking that the doubling time of the pandemic was about 5 6 days various numbers appear in the sage minutes and that we shouldn t take too stringent measures as there was a genuine risk that by doing so we d put the pandemic off to the following winter when it would add to the normal seasonal pressures on the nhs they were quite anxious that we should get through it over the summer of 2020 instead vallance misled the science and technology select committee a while ago about this claiming that sage had recommended lockdown on the 16th or 18th of march this is contradicted by the minutes of those meetings and even if you try to argue that the minutes may not be completely definitive on that it is also contradicted by his accompanying statement that their change of heart was due to correcting their estimate of the doubling time to 3 days which the sage minutes document very precisely to the 23rd march he s due to give evidence to the uk covid 19 inquiry on monday so i await with interest to see whether he will correct the record or also mislead them this error was not just an inconsequential comment in a committee that no one cares about but has been widely reflected in press comment for example the usually excellent lewis goodall on xitter doesn t seem to me that what uksciencechief said earlier has received as much attention as it should in the day s tsunami of news in saying that sage advised the govt to lockdown a week earlier than they did yet more space is opening up between them pic twitter com ckuwxlh7vh lewis goodall lewis_goodall july 16 2020 posted by james annan at tuesday november 21 2023 1 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels covid 19 monday november 20 2023 uk covid 19 inquiry i can see i m going to have to go over all this again it s not a task i really face with much enthusiasm but it doesn t seem like anyone else is prepared to do it to say i m disappointed at the revisionism sleight of hand and downright misleading testimony from several senior scientists to the uk covid 19 inquiry would be an understatement i had naively hoped there might be some element of humility introspection and self reflection concerning their errors at the start of the outbreak but i ve seen no hint of this if anyone wants to reassure me that lessons have been learnt internally then i m all ears but would want to see evidence of this unfortunately neither the inquisitors themselves nor the journalists following the process nor the array of commentators eagerly quoting the juicy messages seem to have the will or perhaps the scientific skills to unpick the story that s not to say it is hugely complicated but a basic understanding of the underlying mathematics is vital for piecing together how it all played out and why and it s very clear that most people start out with an agenda and go looking for support rather than really being interested in understanding the truth the scientists are delighted to have found a route to blaming the politicians and the politicians are too focussed on knifing each other to question what the scientists are now claiming the history to be that s not to say i m perfect far from it but on this particular topic i happen to be correct a more difficult question is whether anyone else cares anyway on with the show posted by james annan at monday november 20 2023 0 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels covid 19 sunday november 19 2023 retired as you may have noticed there hasn t been a lot of science getting done here recently the basic reason for this is that we ve decided to retire and close down blue skies research ltd we set it up about 10 years ago when we returned from japan and have had a lot of fun continuing our research in a private setting but over the last few years have been gradually winding down the research activity and increasing the other than research activity and want to focus on the latter from now on there s a paper in the works with paper charges still to pay so the company isn t completely shut down yet we aren t looking for new projects but if something exciting comes up we might change our minds to be honest we haven t been particularly inspired by new ideas for a while and simply don t have any burning climate science questions that we need to answer after all we have worked out what equilibrium climate sensitivity is actually we worked it out in 2006 but everyone else took 15 years to catch up there are lots of other scientists quite capable of taking the field wherever they choose to and we look forward to seeing where they go posted by james annan at sunday november 19 2023 1 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels blueskiesresearch careers friday november 18 2022 no comment necessary posted by james annan at friday november 18 2022 0 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest wednesday september 21 2022 chess many years ago i played chess as a schoolboy not all that brilliantly but good enough for the school team which played in various competitions this fell by the wayside when i went to university and i d never had the time or energy to re start though kept on playing against my uncle when we met a couple of years ago during covid lockdowns i started playing on line on chess com and then more recently someone started a chess club in settle where a small bunch of us have been playing fairly informal and quick games last weekend was my first proper over the board competition at the very conveniently located ilkley chess festival i d naively assumed this would be a local event for local people but my opponents came from all over hailing from portsmouth nottingham shrewsbury and even scarborough there were also some scots on the entry list that i didn t meet i ve blogged the event on the chess com site here and here as that allows for embedding of games spoiler alert after losing the first game i won the next 4 ending in 4th place in the intermediate section which means under 1750 rated i don t have a current rating for otb chess so had to guess which section to enter at school i was about 1450 someone was taking pictures so here is a picture of the main hall and here i am about to win my 3rd game posted by james annan at wednesday september 21 2022 0 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest older posts home subscribe to posts atom featured post no terence mills does not believe his forecast another day another bit of clickbait climate sceptic trash in the times hidden behind a paywall which saves you from having to read it recipient of the woody guthrie award followers total pageviews popular posts a sensitive matter so sensitivity has been in the climate blogosphere a bit recently just a few days ago that odd norwegian press release got some people his transgression cannot be condoned regardless of his motives in the latest eos oh and also here on the web the success of the scientific enterprise depends on intellectual rigor sic truthfulne more on that recent sensitivity paper now i m embarrassed at my naivety it is all as clear as day the story goes as follows way back in the mists of time well about the bet final outcome you may be wondering what had happened with this as you will recall some time ago i arranged a bet with two russian solar scientists who climate sensitivity is 3c plus or minus a little bit of course but not plus or minus as much as some people have been claiming in recent years so our paper ha labels agu 13 bayes 22 betting markets 40 bizarre 74 blogging 13 blueskiesresearch 80 brexit 11 bureaucracy 48 careers 31 cats 1 climate science 385 climate sensitivity 99 corbyn 12 coronavirus 53 covid 19 59 cycling 23 earthquake 20 economics 34 egu 23 environment 19 food 4 gadgets 10 greenwash 3 hype 57 ipcc 12 japan 255 japanese 13 jlpt 6 journals 15 media 73 meta 6 mountains 6 nuclear 13 paeleoclimate 1 paleoclimate 5 peer review 46 pielkeian science 1 police state 6 politics 44 population 2 probability 29 radiation 5 random 55 religion 4 running 38 statistics 39 stern 3 sushi police 2 wcrp 4 weather 51 climate etc blogs realclimate tamino and then there s physics ed hawkins isaac held eli rabett stoat william connolley planet3 0 statistics understanding uncertainty tim harford andrew gelmam japan blogs debito personal blogs jules pics jules stitching blog archive 2024 1 november 1 can we reliably reconstruct the mid pliocene warm 2023 7 december 1 november 6 2022 4 november 1 september 1 may 1 february 1 2021 7 december 1 october 1 april 1 march 2 january 2 2020 64 december 2 november 1 september 2 august 3 july 6 june 6 may 6 april 12 march 18 february 1 january 7 2019 29 december 4 november 2 october 1 september 2 july 1 june 7 may 4 april 4 march 2 january 2 2018 26 december 2 november 2 october 9 june 2 may 1 april 6 january 4 2017 33 november 2 october 3 september 12 august 1 july 1 june 2 may 3 april 4 february 2 january 3 2016 57 december 2 november 11 october 4 september 7 august 3 july 6 june 6 may 2 april 4 march 3 february 6 january 3 2015 78 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