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omy is being severely squeezed someone else is being squeezed this is such an important point it ought to be emphasized not buried at the bottom of a paragraph that spans centuries with three dashes two sets of parentheses an unanswered question and one technical drizzle of syllables an intermediate input sector someone else is being squeezed in other words the profit flowing into finance is flowing out from somewhere profit is income by definition income elsewhere in the economy is less because profits are so great in the financial sector in the twelve pages i wrote the growing cost of interest in the economy as a whole left less to divide up as wages and profits wages and profits both suffered as a result simon johnson speaks of profit where i write of cost he speaks of the financial sector where i write of interest as a factor cost our words differ but we describe the same phenomenon we see the same problem excessive reliance on credit there is a great deal of research that finds finance is positively correlated with growth but this work has a couple of serious limitations if you want to derive any robust implications for policy first it is about the amount of financial aggregates e g money or credit relative to gdp rather than the share of financial sector gdp in total gdp i know of no evidence that says you are better off with a financial sector at 8 rather than say 4 of gdp johnson objects to research that looks at not quite the right numbers he objects to evaluating money or credit relative to gdp he prefers to look at financial sector gdp but as credit use grows so grows the financial sector i think the objection here is minor it matters to me because my oft repeated excessive reliance on credit is probably a financial aggregates thing second the research shows correlations not causation so all we really know is that richer countries have more financial flows relative to gdp not that more finance raises gdp in any linear fashion attempts to dig into causation tend to show that financial development is not the bonanza that it is cracked up to be third we know finance can become too big relative to an economy ask iceland ask iceland i guess i do object to simon johnson s writing style after all the work in this area is still at any early stage given what we ve seen over the past 12 months which way should we lean towards believing in the positive power of finance until the opposite is proven or towards being skeptical of finance in its modern form until we see evidence that this actually makes sense i can t believe he says the work in this area is still at an y early stage i can t believe he s only looking back over the past 12 months and i can t believe he offers only the two absurd extremes believing in the positive power of finance until the opposite is proven or disbelieving in the positive power of finance until the opposite is proven the extremes are the problem after all too much is too much yes finance is good but too much finance is not good people know this people have been up in arms about debt since the 1980s people know when it is too much but simon johnson the authority on financial crises is considering only the past twelve months and he s saying the work is still at an early stage surely out skepticism should extend to financial innovation show me the evidence that this kind of innovation really adds value socially speaking rather than providing a very modern way to extract amazing rents by simon johnson i m just disappointed that s all i finally find a guy who has been nose to nose with the economic problem but it turns out he doesn t know what the stink is posted by the arthurian at 9 50 pm 0 comments labels sequence 2 wednesday january 20 2010 yeah idunno i read somethin the other day online somewhere somethin like this finance accounts for 8 of gdp but 40 of the profits it s not new news but it finally clicked for me so i spent an hour trying to track down the source to no avail but along those same lines i did find this profits from the financial sector comprise an even larger percentage of our gdp since the crisis erupted johnson thinks their share of corporate profits which was an astonishing 40 in 2003 may actually be higher now given that the rest of the economy is in bad shape banks have doubled their share of gdp to 8 from 4 he said from an article by jennifer schonberger october 8 2009 at the motley fool the johnson noted therein is simon johnson johnson is an authority on financial crises like this one he s the former chief economist of the international monetary fund a professor at mit s sloan school of management a senior fellow at the peterson institute for international economics and co founder of the baseline scenario and then there is the nature of modern finance at the baseline scenario written by simon johnson september 1 2009 but is it really healthy or even sustainable to have a finance sector as large as what we face today it is surely not a good idea for finance to account for 40 percent of total corporate profits such performance in an intermediate input sector suggests someone else in the economy is being severely squeezed and this i know of no evidence that says you are better off with a financial sector at 8 rather than say 4 of gdp so yeah finance accounts for 8 of the gdp and 40 of the profits the evidence comes from simon johnson from the baseline scenario and the motley fool but the organizing of the evidence in a striking way waited for the blogger whose work i could not find a second time i would have thought finance was more than 8 of gdp still it s twice what it was that s significant and if you figure none of the lending counts in gdp only the wages and salaries of people in the finance business count then yeah that s one healthy chunk of gdp an unhealthy chunk rather i d call it excessive reliance on credit oh yeah i do call it that posted by the arthurian at 9 44 pm 1 comments labels sequence 2 tuesday january 19 2010 pahl uh see economic pahl uh see the purpose of policy is to change the economy economic changes are often the result of policy not always but often policy is the cause of change is the economy different today policy may be the cause consider the changes not only the changes we like not only the changes we want all of the changes any of the changes may be a result of policy consider this things we don t like about our economy may be unintended consequences of economic policy nuff said posted by the arthurian at 6 58 pm 0 comments labels policy monday january 18 2010 apropos of interesting from false economy by alan beattie chapter 7 the telegraph and railroad developed together the lines running alongside one another in 1849 the new york and erie rail road pioneered the use of the telegraph to control running operations five years later it was standard practice among the railroad companies these twin technologies incidentally helped establish their own standardization including one of the most fundamental of all measurements time in the mid nineteenth century there were more than two hundred different local times in the united states towns might be only a few minutes ahead or behind the time in the next town along even the american railroad companies used a total of some eighty different times since journeys took so long that there was plenty of opportunity for people to change their watches as railroad travel quickened and expanded the potential for confusion multiplied and in 1883 the railroads imposed a uniform system of time with the four time zones that persist today eastern central mountain and pacific the railroads imposed it posted by the arthurian at 5 58 am 0 comments sunday january 17 2010 the business income tax the business income tax is a tax on profit suppose we run a business with sales of a million dollars a year say our profit is ten percent of that or 100 000 and say that our tax rate is ten percent applied to our profit so the tax we owe is 10 000 but if we take half our profit and sink it back into the business the tax we owe falls to 5000 and our business grows after a few years of growth our business has sales of two million dollars a year but we re still satisfied to take 100 000 profit now just five percent of gross assuming that congress hasn t meddled with taxes our tax rate is still ten percent and our tax is still ten grand our gross income increases and our total spending increases but our taxes do not increase in proportion and we can reduce our taxes again by sinking more profit back into the business this is the force that the business tax applies to our economy in an effort to stimulate growth this is the reason businesses grow beyond economies of scale but that growth has consequences such as the decline of profits and it has methods like merger and acquisition a business with sales of a million dollars a year paying ten grand in taxes is paying a tax rate of one percent of gross if we threw out the existing tax on business profit and established a one percent tax on gross business income this would be neither a tax cut nor an increase but it would remove economic distortions created by the existing tax it would reduce the downward pressure on profit and it would remove the incentive for merger and acquisition i would phase in such a tax over maybe a ten year transition period for the record these numbers are for example only in particular the tax rates are made up but whatever the actual rates are the analysis stands posted by the arthurian at 6 31 am 0 comments labels taxes saturday january 16 2010 t b t f in an old kiplinger letter from 1982 or so i once read that agribusiness had grown beyond its economies of scale a memorable phrase during the recent fiscal crisis the memorable line was too big to fail i totally buy the tbtf argument to let your biggest firms fail in the midst of the worst recession since the great depression is to invite disaster john maynard keynes asked by a journalist whether there had ever been anything before like the great depression replied yes it was called the dark ages and it lasted four hundred years if you want to break up big businesses do it while the economy is on the up swing don t wait to do it during the worst whatever since whatever a question arises how do businesses get tbtf in particular what makes a business grow beyond its economies of scale what makes a business get so big that it would be more profitable to be smaller and yet continue to grow what makes a business grow larger than its natural economic limits would allow the tax code the tax code makes business grow the tax code says re invest your money or we ll tax it to minimize taxes business must grow what makes a business get too big to fail the tax code that s what posted by the arthurian at 6 21 am 0 comments labels taxes friday january 15 2010 the use of credit used to be we d use credit for growth and for special circumstances now we use credit for everything it s too much that s why there is so much debt after world war ii we had three or four dollars of credit in use for every dollar of spending money sixty years later we have thirty five or forty dollars of credit in use for every dollar of spending money so everybody has to run ten times as fast now just to keep up with the payments other people say debt is the problem i say the use of credit is the problem you say but we need to use credit i say yeah you say so i say debt is the measure of credit in use if debt is a problem then credit use is a problem you can t have it both ways you can t complain about debt and demand increasing credit use at the same time or maybe you can i think i know a way posted by the arthurian at 12 17 pm 0 comments thursday january 14 2010 a simple fact no matter how much or how little we spend if we spend credit then we re gonna have debt and the more credit we use the more debt we have if we never use credit then we never have debt no matter how much or how little we spend conclusion the problem is not excessive spending the problem is what we use for money posted by the arthurian at 6 52 pm 0 comments wednesday january 13 2010 points of agreement most people see differences between republicans and democrats well sure but in some ways the two parties are much the same nobody makes an issue of the points of agreement because everybody agrees that s the way things should be done but what if the way we ve been doing things is the source of our economic troubles democrats and republicans both expect the federal reserve do our inflation fighting for us and both use tax policy to stimulate the economy there is of course a lot of bickering about the best way to stimulate the economy but maybe the bickering is a distraction that keeps us from seeing the problem clearly what if the way we ve been doing things is the cause of our problems that would explain why we ve been unable to solve the economic problems it would explain why the problems keep coming back and getting worse it would explain a lot this reminds me of the hero worship story what if the way we ve been doing things is the source of our troubles posted by the arthurian at 8 06 pm 0 comments labels questions sunday january 10 2010 winter of despair from franklin d roosevelt and the new deal by william e leuchtenburg the persistence of the depression raised questions not merely about business leadership but about capitalism itself when so many knew want amidst so much plenty something seemed to be fundamentally wrong with the way the system distributed goods while the jobless wore threadbare clothing farmers could not market thirteen million bales of cotton in 1932 while children trudged to school in shoes soled with cardboard shoe factories in lynn and brockton massachusetts had to close down six months of the year with ten billion dollars in bank vaults hundreds of cities felt compelled to issue scrip because there was not enough currency in the town some groups even resorted to barter the savage irony of want amidst plenty drove farmers to violent action as farm income dipped sharply while taxes and mortgage obligations remained constant thousands of farmers lost their land for failure to pay taxes or meet payments one account reported that on a single day in april 1932 one fourth of the entire area of the state of mississippi went under the hammer of auctioneers it was frequently remarked in later years that roosevelt saved the country from revolution yet the mood of the country during the winter of 1932 33 was not revolutionary there was less an active demand for change than a disillusionment with parliamentary politics so often the prelude to totalitarianism in europe many americans came to despair of the whole political process a contempt for congress for parties for democratic institutions there is no doubt in the world wrote william dodd that both political parties have been bankrupted many believed that the long era of economic growth in the western ...
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