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Text of the page (random words):
aylor rule the difference between debt and credit the economy is transaction the k r shift the long decline the supply side the tint knob they don t know timeline tongue in cheek tot ulc umic unsustainable urgency verdoorn waste fraud abuse withering shoots zoho the new arthurian economics copyright 2010 2018 arthur shipman monday october 31 2011 feet is not the same as feet per second one guy was talking about a pellet gun that shoots pellets at 1200 feet per second the other guy said 1200 feet that s two football fields that s pretty far i said nothing because i don t know but the pellets don t go 1200 feet if gravity pulls the pellet down at 16 feet per second and if you are holding the gun about four feet above level ground and shooting level then the pellet will be in the air only about a quarter of a second so it will travel about 300 feet posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 8 comments sunday october 30 2011 easier the second time i got this from billy mitchell graph 1 i threw some trends on billy s graph and jazzbumpa threw them back at me i want to do more with trends using this same graph as a sample so now i need the numbers i found this graph at the bls link billy provides graph 2 bls provides the data in an excel file pretty nice it goes back to 1939 monthly numbers funny thing though each year is on its own row with one column for each month just like the consumer price index file i got the other day so it was another opportunity to practice my transposing skills to get all those 12 cell rows turned and moved and properly aligned with all the data in one column so i can more easily use it for graphs and calculations i did it this time in excel rather than open office calc i did the same thing as before inserting columns at the left and doing my work there 1 in excel i typed jan 1939 and when i hit enter it got translated into jan 39 so excel recognized it as a date after i entered the next two months of 1939 i grabbed all three cells and dragged em down and excel filled in the whole column for me with all the dates i needed perhaps in open office if i explicitly formatted the cell as a date it would have filled in all the dates for me when i tried dragging the group of three cells see steps 8 and 9 of yesterday s early post i notice it is much easier to keep track of what i m doing with this source data because this time the file does not have the blank line every fifth year i also noticed the rhythm of the process first select a dozen cells and press ctrl c then click a temporary destination and press ctrl v and then ctrl x click a permanent destination and press ctrl v and then ctrl c click a temporary destination and press ctrl v and then ctrl x click a permanent destination and press ctrl v and then ctrl c click a temporary destination and press ctrl v and then ctrl x click a permanent destination and press ctrl v and then ctrl c and like that to the end except at the end you don t need the last ctrl c because there are no more years to copy but it s symmetrical the ctrl c that s missing from the end of the sequence appears at the start anyway the whole rearranging the data thing took less than half an hour and that s for all the years since 1939 it goes quick spending that much time with the numbers it occurred to me how unusual it is that the numbers don t keep rising economic numbers always go up but not these numbers posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments labels spreadsheeting saturday october 29 2011 results after getting my ducks all in a row or all in a column actually i made a graph of the cpi u numbers graph 1 not very inspiring that s okay the exercise is its own reward the point of the exercise though was to look at prices during the great depression going back a few days i had quoted a futurecast post the 8 price inflation that afflicted the depression ravaged economy through the first six months of 1937 after four years of new deal monetary inflation occurred despite unemployment rates in excess of 14 and jazz said bullshit so naturally i had to look but it s hard to see the great depression from here so i looked at a smaller chunk of the cpi graph 2 starts out at 10 was 100 sometime around 1983 where is it now around 225 by the first graph so prices went up ten fold between 1913 and 1983 and have roughly doubled since a little more than doubled tenfold in 70 years doubled in say 23 years for what that s worth 23 once doubled 23 twice four fold in 46 years 23 three times eight fold in 69 years call it 70 so we have done a little better since 1983 an eight times increase as opposed to a ten times increase in prices based on ballpark numbers and 70 year trends not really very good at all is it anyway the federal reserve is gonna be 100 years old pretty soon and i think you should be nice to it i do yeah they can do better but only if they know how meanwhile the great depression no no not this one the other one 1929 here s inflation for 1913 1945 again this time show as a rate rather than a level percent change from year ago numbers starts at 1914 actually seeing the change from 1913 well i don t see any 8 inflation rate in any month of the great depression five percent max and that only briefly jazz was right posted by the arthurian at 6 00 am 5 comments exercise a bit off topic but you might find this handy if i happen to know things about excel that you don t then again if you know an easier way to do something i have done here please do let me know jazz recently provided a great link for cpi numbers going all the way back to 1913 monthly numbers from a strong source the bureau of labor statistics trouble is each year s numbers are all on one row all 12 months and two year values besides then the next year s numbers are on the next line this is not a useful format for graphing in my experience i want the numbers all in one column this post is about what i came up with to put all those cpi numbers into one column in order with the minimum amount of repetitive work and the minimum risk of error i did all this in openoffice calc which is free which is why i have it it has its own quirks but it does work a lot like excel what i ve done here will work in excel if you ve got it 1 i went to the bls link and saved the page in firefox on the firefox menu click save page as firefox wants to save the page as a text file which is fine 2 i saved it to the desktop i save everything to the desktop everybody laughs when they see how littered my desktop is you can save it wherever you want but when you can t find it i ll laugh at you i right clicked on the file and from the pop up menu i use windows clicked open with and from the sub menu openoffice org calc something similar should work if you have excel installed worst case open excel click file open change the file type to include txt files and select the bls file filename cpiai txt something like that 3 i had to fiddle with the text import window that opened up but i got exactly what i wanted on the third try the cpi data from bls with a year on each row and a column for each month not what i wanted for a final product but what i wanted to start with 4 remember to save the file as an open office spreadsheet or an excel spreadsheet don t leave it as the default type a text file because you will lose all your improvements when you save and close the thing this doesn t sound like economics at all does it sounds like my other passion fiddling with computers while rome burns in open office or excel whatever now you have a copy of the bls cpi data all you have to do now is make it useful this is where the power of a spreadsheet can really save you some work 5 i renamed the worksheet source and and made a copy of the sheet to make my changes in yeah it is easy enough to go get the thing again but is is easier just to make another copy of the source sheet if i need it 6 i narrowed down the columns so i could fit more on my screen my monitor is turned portrait so typically i can see a lot of rows and not a lot of columns 7 i inserted four columns to the left of column a making some blank space at the left side of the worksheet i left a couple blank cells at top just out of habit often they come in handy in cell a3 i entered date and in cell b3 cpi u 8 now the fun begins you know the repetitive part and figuring out how to minimize the repetition in cell a4 one row down from the cell where i typed date i entered jan 1913 which is of course where the bls numbers start below it i typed feb 1913 and below that mar 1913 then i selected those three cells and dragged em down the screen expecting it to automatically fill in apr 1913 and the rest of the months of 1913 and beyond 9 it didn t work so i typed in the rest of the months for 1913 always using 3 letter abbreviations for no reason except i thought it might be good to keep the lengths all the same turned out it was 10 when i got to january 1914 i stopped obviously there had to be a better way than typing every month and year for a hundred years worth of months 11 with the cursor sitting in cell a16 i looked the situation over i knew i wanted the letters jan from cell a4 and a space and the yearvalue from cell a4 with 1 added to it and actually i wanted that in every cell from here on down not jan but the month name from 12 rows up and the yearvalue from 12 rows up with 1 added to it 12 i can do that actually i couldn t because open office calc wants semicolons between the numbers where excel wants commas as i recall but the help was helpful and i figured it out long before i would have been done typing the next ten years of numbers manually and it worked you can see the formula i used in the image below 13 14 in cell a16 i typed an equal sign which tells the computer it will be doing a calculation followed by left a4 4 which tells the computer to take the first 4 characters from the left end of the text in cell a4 next i hit the spacebar once and then shift 7 for the ampersand and the spacebar once again pretty sure i need spaces there it might work without them but i don t have to care about that what the ampersand does is sticks chunks of text together what it will do for me is stick the three letters jan and the fourth character a space into cell a16 followed by whatever i put after the ampersand which i didn t tell you about yet see how i am taking the left 4 characters here and because i was clever enough to use all three letter month names the 4th character will always be a space and as a matter of fact the 5th character will always be the first number of the four digit year value and as you might have guessed the year value is what comes next in the formula by the way this may seem like a lot of work but it is a lot less work than typing in all those month names and year numbers by hand so after the ampersand we want the yearvalue but in cell a16 i want the next year after the yearvalue in cell a4 i want 1914 not 1913 so as you can see in the formula in the image above after the ampersand i put a 1 and a plus sign that will add 1 to something so now all i have to do is grab the yearvalue from cell a4 and i ll be done to get the yearvalue from cell a4 i typed mid a4 5 99 remember semicolons between the numbers if you re using open office calc what that does is it starts somewhere in the mid dle of cell a4 with the 5th character actually because that s what i asked for and gives me the next 99 characters or less i use 99 as a rule because it is easier than counting the maximum number of characters i might possibly need though in this case that number would i suppose be four but 99 works and i don t have to worry about what else might work so that s it that s the whole formula now i enter the formula into cell a16 by hitting the enter key boy this is really lcd isn t it and make sure it gave me the result that i want jan 1914 15 now it gets easy with the cursor in cell a16 type ctrl c to copy the formula then press the down arrow and type ctrl v to past a copy of the formula into cell a17 feb 1914 try a few more to make sure it works then select a whole lot of cells in column a and press ctrl v to past the formula into all of em at once 16 bingo the date values are done 17 heh that was the easy part 18 i worked out a way to copy the cpi numbers too but i didn t get it right away with the 1914 numbers but to simplify this story we will pretend that i did 19 go up to the top of the spreadsheet again click on cell b4 which is just below the text cpi u that you typed in step 7 just to the left of the selected cell it should say jan 1913 with the mouse pointing at cell b4 click and hold down the left mouse button and drag the mouse down until you are pointing at cell b15 just to the left of that cell it says dec 1913 and release the mouse button so what you have done is you have selected the 12 cells where you want to put the cpi values we got from the bls which should be over to the right and maybe a few rows down from the selected cells 20 the selected cells are stacked one above the other in a column the numbers we want are all next to each other in a row what we have to do is transpose them 21 this probably sounds like a lot of work to transpose one row at a time yeah don t worry about it spreadsheets are useful tools 22 with those dozen cells selected type an equal sign again telling the computer that it will have to figure something out followed by the word transpose and shift 9 for the open parenthesis character now with no mouse buttons pressed find the bls numbers for 1913 point the mouse to the cpi value for january 1913 then press and hold down the left mouse button slowly drag the mouse over to the right holding the mouse button down until the mouse is pointing at the cpi value for december 1913 release the mouse button press shift 0 that is shift zero to type the close parenthesis character now do not press enter 23 with the cpi numbers for 1913 all selected and the closing parenthesis typed in press and hold down the ctrl key and the shift key at the same time and while holding them down press enter once then release all the keys 24 if you look back at your column b cells b4 through b15 now contain the cpi values transposed from the original where they were all in a row 25 important note in the formula shown in this image you can see curly braces the and characters before the equal sign and after the closing parenthesis you do not have to type them in in fact you should not type them in the computer puts them in there automatically when you hold down ctrl and shift and press enter the curly braces are not characters they are code they are special information that tell you that your formula was entered the special way and that it applies in this case not to a single cell but to a dozen cells in the formula bar you can read that i am transposing cells on row 21 specifically i am using cells f21 through q21 but that s just pot luck if i inserted an extra blank row at the top i d be using ...
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