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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during September 2021;
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any sort of empirical foundation moreover each one turns out to be seriously deficient on theoretical grounds nevertheless economists continue to rely on these and similar ideas to organize their thinking about real world economic phenomena no doubt one reason why this situation arises is because the economy is a complicated system that is inherently difficult to understand so propositions like these even though wrong are all that saves us from intellectual nihilism is this state of affairs ever harmful or dangerous one natural source of concern is if dubious but widely held ideas serve as the basis for consequential policy decisions in this note i examine one such idea namely that expected inflation is a key determinant of actual inflation jeremy rudd board of governors of the frs share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky reinstating the gold standard 27 sep 2021 at 08 11 posted in economics 3 comments ninety years ago keynes could congratulate great britain on finally having got rid of the biggest barbarous relic of his time the gold standard he lamented that advocates of the ancient standard do not observe how remote it now is from the spirit and the requirement of the age t he long age of commodity money has at last passed away before the age of representative money gold has ceased to be a coin a hoard a tangible claim to wealth it has become a much more abstract thing just a standard of value and it only keeps this nominal status by being handed round from time to time in quite small quantities amongst a group of central banks ending the use of fiat money guaranteed by promises for currencies once more backed by gold is not the way out of the present economic crisis far from being the sole prophylactic against the alleged problems of fiat money as the gold bugs maintain a return to gold would only make things far worse so yours truly just as keynes did most certainly rejects any proposals for restoring the gold standard the gold bugs seem to forget that we actually have tried the gold standard before in the era more or less between 1870 and 1930 and with disastrous results implementing a new gold standard today would only lead to a generally falling price level sounds great if you think so read what keynes wrote already ninety years ago in essays in persuasion of course a fall in prices which is the the same thing as a rise in the value of claims on money means that real wealth is transferred from the debtor in favour of the creditor so that a larger proportion of the real assets is represented by the claims of the depositor and a smaller proportion belongs to the nominal owner of the asset who has borrowed in order to buy allowing this debt deflation process the analysis of which was later developed by irving fisher and hyman minsky would land us in a situation where output and wages would fall and unemployment and the real burden of debt would increase the only winners would probably be banks and financial institutes so why would anyone want to reinstate a gold standard the best surmise is probably that it s a question of ideology and politics libertarians and market fundamentalists that advocate a return to gold want to restrict the possibilities of governments to intervene in the economy and even harder than with independent central banks force countries to pursue restrictive economic policies that at all costs keep inflation down still not convinced of why a return to gold is a bad idea then at least remember what keynes wrote in the economic consequences of mr churchill 1925 we stand midway between two theories of economic society the one theory maintains that wages should be fixed by reference to what is fair and reasonable as between classes the other theory the theory of the economic juggernaut is that wages should be settled by economic pressure otherwise called hard facts and that our vast machine should crash along with regard only to its equilibrium as a whole and without attention to the chance consequences of the journey to individual groups the gold standard with its dependence on pure chance its faith in the automatic adjustments and its general regardlessness of social detail is an essential emblem and idol of those who sit in the top tier of the machine i think that they are immensely rash in their comfortable belief that nothing really serious ever happens nine times out of ten nothing really does happen merely a little distress to individuals or to groups but we run a risk of the tenth time and stupid into the bargain if we continue to apply the principles of an economics which was worked out on the hypothesis of laissez faire and free competition to a society which is rapidly abandoning these hypotheses so next time you want to come up with some new idea on how to solve our economic problems with a magic gold bullet remember new economic thinking starts with reading old books why not start with the best there are those written by john maynard keynes share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky facts and values a critical realist perspective 25 sep 2021 at 15 58 posted in theory of science methodology comments off on facts and values a critical realist perspective share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky judith butler a severe case of postmodern mumbo jumbo 25 sep 2021 at 11 24 posted in politics society 3 comments the move from a structuralist account in which capital is understood to structure social relations in relatively homologous ways to a view of hegemony in which power relations are subject to repetition convergence and rearticulation brought the question of temporality into the thinking of structure and marked a shift from a form of althusserian theory that takes structural totalities as theoretical objects to one in which the insights into the contingent possibility of structure inaugurate a renewed conception of hegemony as bound up with the contingent sites and strategies of the rearticulation of power judith butler share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky prayer 24 sep 2021 at 22 16 posted in varia comments off on prayer share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky the great debt debate thomas piketty and michael hudson 24 sep 2021 at 17 14 posted in economics 2 comments share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky new keynesian macroeconomics worse than useless 24 sep 2021 at 11 00 posted in economics 1 comment macroeconomic models may be an informative tool for research but if practitioners of new keynesian macroeconomics do not investigate and make an effort of providing a justification for the credibility of the assumptions on which they erect their building it will not fulfill its tasks there is a gap between its aspirations and its accomplishments and without more supportive evidence to substantiate its claims critics will continue to consider its ultimate argument as a mixture of rather unhelpful metaphors and metaphysics maintaining that economics is a science in the true knowledge business yours truly remains a skeptic of the pretenses and aspirations of new keynesian macroeconomics so far i cannot really see that it has yielded very much in terms of realistic and relevant economic knowledge keynes basically argued that it was inadmissible to project history on the future consequently an economic policy cannot presuppose that what has worked before will continue to do so in the future that macroeconomic models could get hold of correlations between different variables was not enough if they could not get at the causal structure that generated the data they were not really identified dynamic stochastic general euilibrium dsge macroeconomists including new keynesians has drawn the conclusion that the problem with unstable relations is to construct models with clear microfoundations where forward looking optimizing individuals and robust deep behavioural parameters are seen to be stable even to changes in economic policies as yours truly has argued in a couple of post e g here and here this however is a dead end here we are getting close to the heart of darkness in new keynesian macroeconomics where new keynesian economists think that they can rigorously deduce the aggregate effects of representative actors with their reductionist microfoundational methodology they have to put a blind eye on the emergent properties that characterize all open social systems including the economic system the interaction between animal spirits trust confidence institutions etc cannot be deduced or reduced to a question answerable on the individual level macroeconomic structures and phenomena have to be analyzed also on their own terms and although one may easily agree with e g paul krugman s emphasis on simple models the simplifications used may have to be simplifications adequate for macroeconomics and not those adequate for microeconomics in microeconomics we know that aggregation really presupposes homothetic an identical preferences something that almost never exist in real economies the results given by these assumptions are therefore not robust and do not capture the underlying mechanisms at work in any real economy and models that are critically based on particular and odd assumptions and are neither robust nor congruent to real world economies are of questionable value even if economies naturally presuppose individuals it does not follow that we can infer or explain macroeconomic phenomena solely from knowledge of these individuals macroeconomics is to a large extent emergent and cannot be reduced to a simple summation of micro phenomena moreover even these microfoundations aren t immutable the deep parameters of new keynesian dsge models tastes and technology are not really the bedrock of constancy that they believe pretend them to be so i cannot concur with paul krugman mike woodford greg mankiw and other sorta kinda new keynesians when they more or less try to reduce keynesian economics to intertemporal maximization modified with sticky prices and a few other deviations if there is one thing that distinguished keynes economic analysis from that of his predecessors it was his rejection of the idea of a unique full employment equilibrium to which a market economy will automatically return when it experiences a shock keynes argued that an economy could shift from a full employment equilibrium to a persistent slump as the result of the interaction between objective macroeconomic variables and the subjective animal spirits of investors and other decision makers it is this perspective that has been lost in the absorption of new keynesian macro into the dsge framework john quiggin share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky revisiting myrdal s solution to the problem of value bias 24 sep 2021 at 10 22 posted in theory of science methodology comments off on revisiting myrdal s solution to the problem of value bias recognition of the phenomena of rationalization and mystification as the effects of unconscious interference enables us to pinpoint the error in an influential solution to the problem of value bias authorized inter alia by myrdal on this solution recognizing that value neutrality is impossible all the social scientist needs to do is state his or her own value assumptions fully and explicitly at the beginning of some piece of work so as to put the reader and possibly also the writer on their guard it is not difficult to see that this solution begs the question for it presupposes that x knows what his or her values are that is it presupposes that s he has the kind of knowledge about him or herself that ex hypothesi in virtue of unconscious interference s he cannot have about society now for x to have such knowledge about him or herself s he would have had to become fully conscious of the formerly unconscious mode of interference in which case a statement of value assumptions is unnecessary because objectivity is now possible conversely if x is not conscious of the unconscious mode of interference then any statement of his or her professed value assumptions will be worthless moreover one cannot say in general whether any such statement will be more or less misleading thus consider for instance what often follows professions of the kind i m not prejudiced about or i m a tolerant sort of person true liberal good democrat mutatis mutandis similar considerations apply in the case of conscious and semi conscious modes of interference avowals are either unnecessary or potentially misleading share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky hume s fork 23 sep 2021 at 16 59 posted in theory of science methodology 1 comment share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky how is a philosophy of science possible 22 sep 2021 at 11 00 posted in theory of science methodology 1 comment what is the relation between science and philosophy do they compete with one another or speak of different worlds neither position is acceptable philosophy is distinguished by the kinds of considerations and arguments it employs it does not consider a world apart from that of the various sciences rather it considers just that world but from the standpoint of what can be established about it by a priori argument philosophy like science produces knowledge but it is knowledge of the necessary conditions for the production of knowledge second order knowledge if you like if philosophy is as i believe it can be a conceptual science then like any science it ought to be able to tell us something we did not already know it ought to be able to surprise us for as marx astutely observed all science would be superfluous if the outward appearances and essences of things directly coincided share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky probability and economics 21 sep 2021 at 18 44 posted in economics 2 comments modern mainstream economics relies to a large degree on the notion of probability to at all be amenable to applied economic analysis economic observations allegedly have to be conceived as random events that are analyzable within a probabilistic framework but is it really necessary to model the economic system as a system where randomness can only be analyzed and understood when based on an a priori notion of probability when at...
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