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ip fabrication facilities data centers etc then the rate of progress will obviously be quite different as datacenter production gets automated the cost of intelligence should eventually converge to near the cost of electricity people are often curious about how much energy a chatgpt query uses the average query uses about 0 34 watt hours about what an oven would use in a little over one second or a high efficiency lightbulb would use in a couple of minutes it also uses about 0 000085 gallons of water roughly one fifteenth of a teaspoon the rate of technological progress will keep accelerating and it will continue to be the case that people are capable of adapting to almost anything there will be very hard parts like whole classes of jobs going away but on the other hand the world will be getting so much richer so quickly that we ll be able to seriously entertain new policy ideas we never could before we probably won t adopt a new social contract all at once but when we look back in a few decades the gradual changes will have amounted to something big if history is any guide we will figure out new things to do and new things to want and assimilate new tools quickly job change after the industrial revolution is a good recent example expectations will go up but capabilities will go up equally quickly and we ll all get better stuff we will build ever more wonderful things for each other people have a long term important and curious advantage over ai we are hard wired to care about other people and what they think and do and we don t care very much about machines a subsistence farmer from a thousand years ago would look at what many of us do and say we have fake jobs and think that we are just playing games to entertain ourselves since we have plenty of food and unimaginable luxuries i hope we will look at the jobs a thousand years in the future and think they are very fake jobs and i have no doubt they will feel incredibly important and satisfying to the people doing them the rate of new wonders being achieved will be immense it s hard to even imagine today what we will have discovered by 2035 maybe we will go from solving high energy physics one year to beginning space colonization the next year or from a major materials science breakthrough one year to true high bandwidth brain computer interfaces the next year many people will choose to live their lives in much the same way but at least some people will probably decide to plug in looking forward this sounds hard to wrap our heads around but probably living through it will feel impressive but manageable from a relativistic perspective the singularity happens bit by bit and the merge happens slowly we are climbing the long arc of exponential technological progress it always looks vertical looking forward and flat going backwards but it s one smooth curve think back to 2020 and what it would have sounded like to have something close to agi by 2025 versus what the last 5 years have actually been like there are serious challenges to confront along with the huge upsides we do need to solve the safety issues technically and societally but then it s critically important to widely distribute access to superintelligence given the economic implications the best path forward might be something like solve the alignment problem meaning that we can robustly guarantee that we get ai systems to learn and act towards what we collectively really want over the long term social media feeds are an example of misaligned ai the algorithms that power those are incredible at getting you to keep scrolling and clearly understand your short term preferences but they do so by exploiting something in your brain that overrides your long term preference then focus on making superintelligence cheap widely available and not too concentrated with any person company or country society is resilient creative and adapts quickly if we can harness the collective will and wisdom of people then although we ll make plenty of mistakes and some things will go really wrong we will learn and adapt quickly and be able to use this technology to get maximum upside and minimal downside giving users a lot of freedom within broad bounds society has to decide on seems very important the sooner the world can start a conversation about what these broad bounds are and how we define collective alignment the better we the whole industry not just openai are building a brain for the world it will be extremely personalized and easy for everyone to use we will be limited by good ideas for a long time technical people in the startup industry have made fun of the idea guys people who had an idea and were looking for a team to build it it now looks to me like they are about to have their day in the sun openai is a lot of things now but before anything else we are a superintelligence research company we have a lot of work in front of us but most of the path in front of us is now lit and the dark areas are receding fast we feel extraordinarily grateful to get to do what we do intelligence too cheap to meter is well within grasp this may sound crazy to say but if we told you back in 2020 we were going to be where we are today it probably sounded more crazy than our current predictions about 2030 may we scale smoothly exponentially and uneventfully through superintelligence up vote up voted 7438 tweet posted three observations our mission is to ensure that agi artificial general intelligence benefits all of humanity systems that start to point to agi are coming into view and so we think it s important to understand the moment we are in agi is a weakly defined term but generally speaking we mean it to be a system that can tackle increasingly complex problems at human level in many fields people are tool builders with an inherent drive to understand and create which leads to the world getting better for all of us each new generation builds upon the discoveries of the generations before to create even more capable tools electricity the transistor the computer the internet and soon agi over time in fits and starts the steady march of human innovation has brought previously unimaginable levels of prosperity and improvements to almost every aspect of people s lives in some sense agi is just another tool in this ever taller scaffolding of human progress we are building together in another sense it is the beginning of something for which it s hard not to say this time it s different the economic growth in front of us looks astonishing and we can now imagine a world where we cure all diseases have much more time to enjoy with our families and can fully realize our creative potential in a decade perhaps everyone on earth will be capable of accomplishing more than the most impactful person can today we continue to see rapid progress with ai development here are three observations about the economics of ai 1 the intelligence of an ai model roughly equals the log of the resources used to train and run it these resources are chiefly training compute data and inference compute it appears that you can spend arbitrary amounts of money and get continuous and predictable gains the scaling laws that predict this are accurate over many orders of magnitude 2 the cost to use a given level of ai falls about 10x every 12 months and lower prices lead to much more use you can see this in the token cost from gpt 4 in early 2023 to gpt 4o in mid 2024 where the price per token dropped about 150x in that time period moore s law changed the world at 2x every 18 months this is unbelievably stronger 3 the socioeconomic value of linearly increasing intelligence is super exponential in nature a consequence of this is that we see no reason for exponentially increasing investment to stop in the near future if these three observations continue to hold true the impacts on society will be significant we are now starting to roll out ai agents which will eventually feel like virtual co workers let s imagine the case of a software engineering agent which is an agent that we expect to be particularly important imagine that this agent will eventually be capable of doing most things a software engineer at a top company with a few years of experience could do for tasks up to a couple of days long it will not have the biggest new ideas it will require lots of human supervision and direction and it will be great at some things but surprisingly bad at others still imagine it as a real but relatively junior virtual coworker now imagine 1 000 of them or 1 million of them now imagine such agents in every field of knowledge work in some ways ai may turn out to be like the transistor economically a big scientific discovery that scales well and that seeps into almost every corner of the economy we don t think much about transistors or transistor companies and the gains are very widely distributed but we do expect our computers tvs cars toys and more to perform miracles the world will not change all at once it never does life will go on mostly the same in the short run and people in 2025 will mostly spend their time in the same way they did in 2024 we will still fall in love create families get in fights online hike in nature etc but the future will be coming at us in a way that is impossible to ignore and the long term changes to our society and economy will be huge we will find new things to do new ways to be useful to each other and new ways to compete but they may not look very much like the jobs of today agency willfulness and determination will likely be extremely valuable correctly deciding what to do and figuring out how to navigate an ever changing world will have huge value resilience and adaptability will be helpful skills to cultivate agi will be the biggest lever ever on human willfulness and enable individual people to have more impact than ever before not less we expect the impact of agi to be uneven although some industries will change very little scientific progress will likely be much faster than it is today this impact of agi may surpass everything else the price of many goods will eventually fall dramatically right now the cost of intelligence and the cost of energy constrain a lot of things and the price of luxury goods and a few inherently limited resources like land may rise even more dramatically technically speaking the road in front of us looks fairly clear but public policy and collective opinion on how we should integrate agi into society matter a lot one of our reasons for launching products early and often is to give society and the technology time to co evolve ai will seep into all areas of the economy and society we will expect everything to be smart many of us expect to need to give people more control over the technology than we have historically including open sourcing more and accept that there is a balance between safety and individual empowerment that will require trade offs while we never want to be reckless and there will likely be some major decisions and limitations related to agi safety that will be unpopular directionally as we get closer to achieving agi we believe that trending more towards individual empowerment is important the other likely path we can see is ai being used by authoritarian governments to control their population through mass surveillance and loss of autonomy ensuring that the benefits of agi are broadly distributed is critical the historical impact of technological progress suggests that most of the metrics we care about health outcomes economic prosperity etc get better on average and over the long term but increasing equality does not seem technologically determined and getting this right may require new ideas in particular it does seem like the balance of power between capital and labor could easily get messed up and this may require early intervention we are open to strange sounding ideas like giving some compute budget to enable everyone on earth to use a lot of ai but we can also see a lot of ways where just relentlessly driving the cost of intelligence as low as possible has the desired effect anyone in 2035 should be able to marshall the intellectual capacity equivalent to everyone in 2025 everyone should have access to unlimited genius to direct however they can imagine there is a great deal of talent right now without the resources to fully express itself and if we change that the resulting creative output of the world will lead to tremendous benefits for us all thanks especially to josh achiam boaz barak and aleksander madry for reviewing drafts of this by using the term agi here we aim to communicate clearly and we do not intend to alter or interpret the definitions and processes that define our relationship with microsoft we fully expect to be partnered with microsoft for the long term this footnote seems silly but on the other hand we know some journalists will try to get clicks by writing something silly so here we are pre empting the silliness up vote up voted 2770 tweet posted reflections the second birthday of chatgpt was only a little over a month ago and now we have transitioned into the next paradigm of models that can do complex reasoning new years get people in a reflective mood and i wanted to share some personal thoughts about how it has gone so far and some of the things i ve learned along the way as we get closer to agi it feels like an important time to look at the progress of our company there is still so much to understand still so much we don t know and it s still so early but we know a lot more than we did when we started we started openai almost nine years ago because we believed that agi was possible and that it could be the most impactful technology in human history we wanted to figure out how to build it and make it broadly beneficial we were excited to try to make our mark on history our ambitions were extraordinarily high and so was our belief that the work might benefit society in an equally extraordinary way at the time very few people cared and if they did it was mostly because they thought we had no chance of success in 2022 openai was a quiet research lab working on something temporarily called chat with gpt 3 5 we are much better at research than we are at naming things we had been watching people use the playground feature of our api and knew that developers were really enjoying talking to the model we thought building a demo around that experience would show people something important about the future and help us make our models better and safer we ended up mercifully calling it chatgpt instead and launched it on november 30th of 2022 we always knew abstractly that at some point we would hit a tipping point and the ai revolution would get kicked off but we didn t know what the moment would be to our surprise it turned out to be this the launch of chatgpt kicked off a growth curve like nothing we have ever seen in our company our industry and the world broadly we are finally seeing...
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