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tific insights that got us to systems like gpt 4 and o3 were hard won but will take us very far ai will contribute to the world in many ways but the gains to quality of life from ai driving faster scientific progress and increased productivity will be enormous the future can be vastly better than the present scientific progress is the biggest driver of overall progress it s hugely exciting to think about how much more we could have in some big sense chatgpt is already more powerful than any human who has ever lived hundreds of millions of people rely on it every day and for increasingly important tasks a small new capability can create a hugely positive impact a small misalignment multiplied by hundreds of millions of people can cause a great deal of negative impact 2025 has seen the arrival of agents that can do real cognitive work writing computer code will never be the same 2026 will likely see the arrival of systems that can figure out novel insights 2027 may see the arrival of robots that can do tasks in the real world a lot more people will be able to create software and art but the world wants a lot more of both and experts will probably still be much better than novices as long as they embrace the new tools generally speaking the ability for one person to get much more done in 2030 than they could in 2020 will be a striking change and one many people will figure out how to benefit from in the most important ways the 2030s may not be wildly different people will still love their families express their creativity play games and swim in lakes but in still very important ways the 2030s are likely going to be wildly different from any time that has come before we do not know how far beyond human level intelligence we can go but we are about to find out in the 2030s intelligence and energy ideas and the ability to make ideas happen are going to become wildly abundant these two have been the fundamental limiters on human progress for a long time with abundant intelligence and energy and good governance we can theoretically have anything else already we live with incredible digital intelligence and after some initial shock most of us are pretty used to it very quickly we go from being amazed that ai can generate a beautifully written paragraph to wondering when it can generate a beautifully written novel or from being amazed that it can make live saving medical diagnoses to wondering when it can develop the cures or from being amazed it can create a small computer program to wondering when it can create an entire new company this is how the singularity goes wonders become routine and then table stakes we already hear from scientists that they are two or three times more productive than they were before ai advanced ai is interesting for many reasons but perhaps nothing is quite as significant as the fact that we can use it to do faster ai research we may be able to discover new computing substrates better algorithms and who knows what else if we can do a decade s worth of research in a year or a month then the rate of progress will obviously be quite different from here on the tools we have already built will help us find further scientific insights and aid us in creating better ai systems of course this isn t the same thing as an ai system completely autonomously updating its own code but nevertheless this is a larval version of recursive self improvement there are other self reinforcing loops at play the economic value creation has started a flywheel of compounding infrastructure buildout to run these increasingly powerful ai systems and robots that can build other robots and in some sense datacenters that can build other datacenters aren t that far off if we have to make the first million humanoid robots the old fashioned way but then they can operate the entire supply chain digging and refining minerals driving trucks running factories etc to build more robots which can build more chip fabrication facilities data centers etc then the rate of progress will obviously be quite different as datacenter production gets automated the cost of intelligence should eventually converge to near the cost of electricity people are often curious about how much energy a chatgpt query uses the average query uses about 0 34 watt hours about what an oven would use in a little over one second or a high efficiency lightbulb would use in a couple of minutes it also uses about 0 000085 gallons of water roughly one fifteenth of a teaspoon the rate of technological progress will keep accelerating and it will continue to be the case that people are capable of adapting to almost anything there will be very hard parts like whole classes of jobs going away but on the other hand the world will be getting so much richer so quickly that we ll be able to seriously entertain new policy ideas we never could before we probably won t adopt a new social contract all at once but when we look back in a few decades the gradual changes will have amounted to something big if history is any guide we will figure out new things to do and new things to want and assimilate new tools quickly job change after the industrial revolution is a good recent example expectations will go up but capabilities will go up equally quickly and we ll all get better stuff we will build ever more wonderful things for each other people have a long term important and curious advantage over ai we are hard wired to care about other people and what they think and do and we don t care very much about machines a subsistence farmer from a thousand years ago would look at what many of us do and say we have fake jobs and think that we are just playing games to entertain ourselves since we have plenty of food and unimaginable luxuries i hope we will look at the jobs a thousand years in the future and think they are very fake jobs and i have no doubt they will feel incredibly important and satisfying to the people doing them the rate of new wonders being achieved will be immense it s hard to even imagine today what we will have discovered by 2035 maybe we will go from solving high energy physics one year to beginning space colonization the next year or from a major materials science breakthrough one year to true high bandwidth brain computer interfaces the next year many people will choose to live their lives in much the same way but at least some people will probably decide to plug in looking forward this sounds hard to wrap our heads around but probably living through it will feel impressive but manageable from a relativistic perspective the singularity happens bit by bit and the merge happens slowly we are climbing the long arc of exponential technological progress it always looks vertical looking forward and flat going backwards but it s one smooth curve think back to 2020 and what it would have sounded like to have something close to agi by 2025 versus what the last 5 years have actually been like there are serious challenges to confront along with the huge upsides we do need to solve the safety issues technically and societally but then it s critically important to widely distribute access to superintelligence given the economic implications the best path forward might be something like solve the alignment problem meaning that we can robustly guarantee that we get ai systems to learn and act towards what we collectively really want over the long term social media feeds are an example of misaligned ai the algorithms that power those are incredible at getting you to keep scrolling and clearly understand your short term preferences but they do so by exploiting something in your brain that overrides your long term preference then focus on making superintelligence cheap widely available and not too concentrated with any person company or country society is resilient creative and adapts quickly if we can harness the collective will and wisdom of people then although we ll make plenty of mistakes and some things will go really wrong we will learn and adapt quickly and be able to use this technology to get maximum upside and minimal downside giving users a lot of freedom within broad bounds society has to decide on seems very important the sooner the world can start a conversation about what these broad bounds are and how we define collective alignment the better we the whole industry not just openai are building a brain for the world it will be extremely personalized and easy for everyone to use we will be limited by good ideas for a long time technical people in the startup industry have made fun of the idea guys people who had an idea and were looking for a team to build it it now looks to me like they are about to have their day in the sun openai is a lot of things now but before anything else we are a superintelligence research company we have a lot of work in front of us but most of the path in front of us is now lit and the dark areas are receding fast we feel extraordinarily grateful to get to do what we do intelligence too cheap to meter is well within grasp this may sound crazy to say but if we told you back in 2020 we were going to be where we are today it probably sounded more crazy than our current predictions about 2030 may we scale smoothly exponentially and uneventfully through superintelligence up vote up voted 7438 tweet posted three observations our mission is to ensure that agi artificial general intelligence benefits all of humanity systems that start to point to agi are coming into view and so we think it s important to understand the moment we are in agi is a weakly defined term but generally speaking we mean it to be a system that can tackle increasingly complex problems at human level in many fields people are tool builders with an inherent drive to understand and create which leads to the world getting better for all of us each new generation builds upon the discoveries of the generations before to create even more capable tools electricity the transistor the computer the internet and soon agi over time in fits and starts the steady march of human innovation has brought previously unimaginable levels of prosperity and improvements to almost every aspect of people s lives in some sense agi is just another tool in this ever taller scaffolding of human progress we are building together in another sense it is the beginning of something for which it s hard not to say this time it s different the economic growth in front of us looks astonishing and we can now imagine a world where we cure all diseases have much more time to enjoy with our families and can fully realize our creative potential in a decade perhaps everyone on earth will be capable of accomplishing more than the most impactful person can today we continue to see rapid progress with ai development here are three observations about the economics of ai 1 the intelligence of an ai model roughly equals the log of the resources used to train and run it these resources are chiefly training compute data and inference compute it appears that you can spend arbitrary amounts of money and get continuous and predictable gains the scaling laws that predict this are accurate over many orders of magnitude 2 the cost to use a given level of ai falls about 10x every 12 months and lower prices lead to much more use you can see this in the token cost from gpt 4 in early 2023 to gpt 4o in mid 2024 where the price per token dropped about 150x in that time period moore s law changed the world at 2x every 18 months this is unbelievably stronger 3 the socioeconomic value of linearly increasing intelligence is super exponential in nature a consequence of this is that we see no reason for exponentially increasing investment to stop in the near future if these three observations continue to hold true the impacts on society will be significant we are now starting to roll out ai agents which will eventually feel like virtual co workers let s imagine the case of a software engineering agent which is an agent that we expect to be particularly important imagine that this agent will eventually be capable of doing most things a software engineer at a top company with a few years of experience could do for tasks up to a couple of days long it will not have the biggest new ideas it will require lots of human supervision and direction and it will be great at some things but surprisingly bad at others still imagine it as a real but relatively junior virtual coworker now imagine 1 000 of them or 1 million of them now imagine such agents in every field of knowledge work in some ways ai may turn out to be like the transistor economically a big scientific discovery that scales well and that seeps into almost every corner of the economy we don t think much about transistors or transistor companies and the gains are very widely distributed but we do expect our computers tvs cars toys and more to perform miracles the world will not change all at once it never does life will go on mostly the same in the short run and people in 2025 will mostly spend their time in the same way they did in 2024 we will still fall in love create families get in fights online hike in nature etc but the future will be coming at us in a way that is impossible to ignore and the long term changes to our society and economy will be huge we will find new things to do new ways to be useful to each other and new ways to compete but they may not look very much like the jobs of today agency willfulness and determination will likely be extremely valuable correctly deciding what to do and figuring out how to navigate an ever changing world will have huge value resilience and adaptability will be helpful skills to cultivate agi will be the biggest lever ever on human willfulness and enable individual people to have more impact than ever before not less we expect the impact of agi to be uneven although some industries will change very little scientific progress will likely be much faster than it is today this impact of agi may surpass everything else the price of many goods will eventually fall dramatically right now the cost of intelligence and the cost of energy constrain a lot of things and the price of luxury goods and a few inherently limited resources like land may rise even more dramatically technically speaking the road in front of us looks fairly clear but public policy and collective opinion on how we should integrate agi into society matter a lot one of our reasons for launching products early and often is to give society and the technology time to co evolve ai will seep into all areas of the economy and society we will expect everything to be smart many of us expect to need to give people more control over the technology than we have historically including open sourcing more and accept that there is a balance between safety and individual empowerment that will require trade offs while we never want to be reckless and there will likely be some major decisions and limitations ...