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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during October 2012;
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y bateman has a nice piece in new york times on the lack of perspectives and alternatives shown by mainstream economists when dealing with the systemic crises of modern economies economists do much better when they tackle small well defined problems as john maynard keynes put it economists should become more like dentists modest people who look at a small part of the body but remove a lot of pain however there are also downsides to approaching economics as a dentist would above all the loss of any vision about what the economic system should look like even keynes himself was driven by a powerful vision of capitalism he believed it was the only system that could create prosperity but it was also inherently unstable and so in need of constant reform this vision caught the imagination of a generation that had experienced the great depression and world war ii and helped drive policy for nearly half a century in the 20th century the main challenge to keynes s vision came from economists like friedrich hayek and milton friedman who envisioned an ideal economy involving isolated individuals bargaining with one another in free markets government they contended usually messes things up overtaking a keynesianism that many found inadequate to the task of tackling the stagflation of the 1970s this vision fueled neoliberal and free market conservative agendas of governments around the world that vision has in turn been undermined by the current crisis it took extensive government action to prevent another great depression while the enormous rewards received by bankers at the heart of the meltdown have led many to ask whether unfettered capitalism produced an equitable distribution of wealth we clearly need a new alternative vision of capitalism but thanks to decades of academic training in the dentistry approach to economics today s keynes or friedman is nowhere to be found and philip mirowski has an equally interesting article on opendemocracy net explaining why neoclassical economists don t seem to have suffered one whit for the subsequent sequence of events a slow motion train wreck that one might reasonably have expected would have rubbished the credibility of lesser mortals two articles well worth reading share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky vinst den skattefinansierade välfärdssektorns dödgrävare 29 oct 2012 at 09 07 posted in politics society comments off on vinst den skattefinansierade välfärdssektorns dödgrävare den socialdemokratiska partistyrelsen har lagt förslag om nationella kvalitetslagar för ordning och reda i välfärden syftet är att förbättra kvaliteten och avsevärt begränsa vinsterna detta är ett viktigt beslut socialdemokraterna går nu till val med löfte om vinstbegränsning men beslutet rymmer också problem mest problematiskt är att partistyrelsen inte föreslår någon formell reglering sverige ska förbli det enda land i europa som saknar regler för vinstuttag i välfärden inte ens skolan ska fredas från vinstintressen den skarpa ideologiska skiljelinjen mellan borgerlig och socialdemokratisk politik har alltid handlat om synen på marknaden socialdemokraterna ser att marknadens räckvidd behöver begränsas i syfte att värna gemensamma intressen som familjebildning hälsa social sammanhållning och miljö borgerligheten har i olika grad förespråkat marknadens frihet ett problem med förslaget om nationella kvalitetslagar är det saknar en konsekvent idé om vad marknaden kan och inte kan göra det sägs å ena sidan att marknaden inte klarar att lösa välfärdens kvalitetsproblem å andra sidan bejakas i förslaget både vinstuttag och marknad det saknas tydlighet i såväl analys som värderingar vissa åtgärder som öppna böcker syftar uppenbarligen till att förbättra marknadens funktion med mer information kan brukare lättare välja rätt och verksamheten kan kontrolleras men andra åtgärder som möjligheten att sätta stopp för nyetableringar syftar tvärtom till att försämra marknadens funktion en marknad utan fritt tillträde kan ju aldrig bli en effektiv konkurrensmarknad vinstens disciplinerande funktion går om intet när nya konkurrenter inte får komma intill istället får politiker makt att dela ut exklusiva rättigheter till lokal näringsverksamhet vore det inte rimligt att företag som ges exklusivt tillträde till en stängd marknad också har ett tak för vinsten staten bör behandla alla medborgare med samma omsorg och respekt det är en princip som jag ställer mig bakom men jag menar att vi idag bör ställa oss frågan om det överhuvudtaget är möjligt att följa denna princip på en välfärdsmarknad där marknadslogiken i långa stycken har ersatt de normer som bärs av demokratin vad händer med medborgarskapet när staten som har uppdraget att behandla alla medborgare lika delegerar skolor och sjukhus till vinstdrivande företag som har ett intresse av att skilja ut lönsamma medborgare från olönsamma och vad händer med socialdemokratins allra viktigaste mål jämlikheten när marknadskonkurrens och valfrihet driver fram bristande likvärdighet och segregation jag vill hävda att det aktuella förslaget om vinstbegränsning i välfärden nationella kvalitetslagar för ordning och reda i välfärden tyvärr i allt väsentligt bärs av marknadsliberala idéer de bärande värden som lyfts i förslaget om nationella kvalitetslagar är effektiv användning av skattemedel och att alla ska ha rätt att välja dessa värden kan framstå som självklart positiva men de står inte desto mindre i tydlig konflikt med de värden som socialdemokratin historiskt har hävdat vi har hävdat idén att välfärdspolitik är en produktiv investering inte en kostnad att minimera vi har hävdat att idén att jämlikhet alla människors lika värde är ett överordnat mål för samhällsbygget vi har hävdat att frihet och valfrihet har en gräns friheten måste vara hållbar den måste vila på en bädd av solidaritet lena sommestad ordförande för s kvinnor man kan inte annat än hålla med denna eminenta ekonomihistoriker i den analys hon gör frågan är nu om landets socialdemokratiska gräsrötter kan leva med partiledningens kompromissförslag risken är tyvärr stor att socialdemokraterna om man håller fast vid förslaget förlorade nästa val redan i fredags share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky saving doesn t finance investment 28 oct 2012 at 17 18 posted in economics 3 comments an act of individual saving means so to speak a decision not to have dinner to day but it does not necessitate a decision to have dinner or to buy a pair of boots a week hence or a year hence or to consume any specified thing at any specified date thus it depresses the business of preparing to day s dinner without stimulating the business of making ready for some future act of consumption it is not a substitution of future consumption demand for present consumption demand it is a net diminution of such demand if saving consisted not merely in abstaining from present consumption but in placing simultaneously a specific order for future consumption the effect might indeed be different for in that case the expectation of some future yield from investment would be improved and the resources released from preparing for present consumption could be turned over to preparing for the future consumption in any case however an individual decision to save does not in actual fact involve the placing of any specific forward order for consumption but merely the cancellation of a present order thus since the expectation of consumption is the only raison d être of employment there should be nothing paradoxical in the conclusion that a diminished propensity to consume has ceteris paribus a depressing effect on employment the trouble arises therefore because the act of saving implies not a substitution for present consumption of some specific additional consumption which requires for its preparation just as much immediate economic activity as would have been required by present consumption equal in value to the sum saved but a desire for wealth as such that is for a potentiality of consuming an unspecified article at an unspecified time the absurd though almost universal idea that an act of individual saving is just as good for effective demand as an act of individual consumption has been fostered by the fallacy much more specious than the conclusion derived from it that an increased desire to hold wealth being much the same thing as an increased desire to hold investments must by increasing the demand for investments provide a stimulus to their production so that current investment is promoted by individual saving to the same extent as present consumption is diminished j m keynes general theory share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky smart chicago professor steven levitt not so smart after all 28 oct 2012 at 16 16 posted in economics statistics econometrics 3 comments in an interview not so long ago steven levitt mr freakonomics answered the question how he could tell the difference between a smart person and a not so smart person well one good indicator of a person who s not so smart is if they vote in a presidential election because they think their vote might actually decide which candidate wins there has never been and there never will be a vote cast in a presidential election that could possibly be decisive statistics professor andrew gelman aptly retorted i have no problem if levitt wants to argue that it doesn t matter who wins the election i disagree with him given the evidence that the positions of the democratic and republicans in the u s are farther apart on economic issues than are left and right groupings in many other countries but levitt can make that argument if he wants to and i have no problem if levitt wants to say that for a one in a million or one in ten million chance he doesn t think it s worth it to vote but i don t think levitt is making sense when he writes that there never will be a vote cast in a presidential election that could possibly be decisive a low probability is not a zero probability this confuses a lot of people so i can understand levitt missing the point but it s important just cos you don t know whether a particular vote was decisive that doesn t mean a single vote can t be decisive or to put it another way when he says virtually impossible i d say 1 in a million to 1 in 10 million if you live in a swing state share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky trickle down economics 27 oct 2012 at 22 24 posted in varia comments off on trickle down economics share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky paul krugman the is lm organ grinder 27 oct 2012 at 19 06 posted in economics 3 comments howard davies has an interesting article on project syndicate about the shortcomings of modern mainstream economics but what of the core disciplines of economics and finance themselves can nothing be done to make them more useful in explaining the world as it is rather than as it is assumed to be in their stylized models george soros has put generous funding behind the institute for new economic thinking inet the bank of england has also tried to stimulate fresh ideas the proceedings of a conference that it organized earlier this year have now been edited under the provocative title what s the use of economics some of the recommendations that emerged from that conference are straightforward and concrete for example there should be more teaching of economic history many conference participants agreed that the study of economics should be set in a broader political context with greater emphasis on the role of institutions but it is not clear that a majority of the profession yet accepts even these modest proposals the so called chicago school has mounted a robust defense of its rational expectations based approach rejecting the notion that a rethink is required the nobel laureate economist robert lucas has argued that the crisis was not predicted because economic theory predicts that such events cannot be predicted so all is well and there is disturbing evidence that news of the crisis has not yet reached some economics departments the university of chicago s eugene fama has described the notion that finance theory was at fault as a fantasy and argues that financial markets and financial institutions were casualties rather than causes of the recession and the efficient market hypothesis that he championed cannot be blamed because most investing is done by active managers who don t believe that markets are efficient this amounts to what we might call an irrelevance defense finance theorists cannot be held responsible since no one in the real world pays attention to them great critique and you would of course expect even is lm organ grinder paul krugman to concur but no instead krugman complains that the truth is that basic macroeconomics the stuff that is still taught in textbooks has been very very useful in this crisis the problem is that half the profession and most policy makers turned their back on this kind of economics what is the magic silver bullet that davies missed good old is lm of course i m starting to get rather tired of pk s endless tirades about the splendour of the hicksian invention why well read this for a starter i accordingly conclude that the only way in which is lm analysis usefully survives as anything more than a classroom gadget to be superseded later on by something better is in application to a particular kind of causal analysis where the use of equilibrium methods even a drastic use of equilibrium methods is not inappropriate i have deliberately interpreted the equilibrium concept to be used in such analysis in a very stringent manner some would say a pedantic manner not because i want to tell the applied economist who uses such methods that he is in fact committing himself to anything which must appear to him to be so ridiculous but because i want to ask him to try to assure himself that the divergences between reality and the theoretical model which he is using to explain it are no more than divergences which he is entitled to overlook i am quite prepared to believe that there are cases where he is entitled to overlook them but the issue is one which needs to be faced in each case when one turns to questions of policy looking toward the future instead of the past the use of equilibrium methods is still more suspect for one cannot prescribe policy without considering at least the possibility that policy may be changed there can be no change of policy if everything is to go on as expected if the economy is to remain in what however approximately may be regarded as its existing equilibrium it may be hop...
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