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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during June 2018;
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to do namely increases the national wealth and that the notion that we shall for intricate reasons ruin ourselves financially if we use this means to increase our well being is what it looks like a bogy john maynard keynes 1929 share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky brave women 25 jun 2018 at 15 50 posted in politics society comments off on brave women courage is a capability to confront fear as when in front of the powerful and mighty not to step back but stand up for one s rights not to be humiliated or abused courage is to do the right thing in spite of danger and fear to keep on even if opportunities to turn back are given dignity a better life or justice and rule of law are things worth fighting for not to step back in spite of confronting the mighty and powerful creates courageous acts that stay in our memories and means something as when this iranian woman refuses to be harassed by self appointed moral guardians the american descent 24 jun 2018 at 12 57 posted in politics society comments off on the american descent the speed of america s moral descent under donald trump is breathtaking in a matter of months we ve gone from a nation that stood for life liberty and the pursuit of happiness to a nation that tears children from their parents and puts them in cages what s almost equally remarkable about this plunge into barbarism is that it s not a response to any actual problem the mass influx of murderers and rapists that trump talks about the wave of crime committed by immigrants here and in his mind refugees in germany are things that simply aren t happening they re just sick fantasies being used to justify real atrocities and you know what this reminds me of the history of anti semitism a tale of prejudice fueled by myths and hoaxes that ended in genocide paul krugman share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky on the limits of mediation analysis and statistical causality 23 jun 2018 at 23 18 posted in statistics econometrics 5 comments mediation analysis is this thing where you have a treatment and an outcome and you re trying to model how the treatment works how much does it directly affect the outcome and how much is the effect mediated through intermediate variables in the real world it s my impression that almost all the mediation analyses that people actually fit in the social and medical sciences are misguided lots of examples where the assumptions aren t clear and where in any case coefficient estimates are hopelessly noisy and where confused people will over interpret statistical significance more and more i ve been coming to the conclusion that the standard causal inference paradigm is broken so how to do it i don t think traditional path analysis or other multivariate methods of the throw all the data in the blender and let god sort em out variety will do the job instead we need some structure and some prior information andrew gelman causality in social sciences and economics can never solely be a question of statistical inference causality entails more than predictability and to really in depth explain social phenomena require theory analysis of variation the foundation of all econometrics can never in itself reveal how these variations are brought about first when we are able to tie actions processes or structures to the statistical relations detected can we say that we are getting at relevant explanations of causation most facts have many different possible alternative explanations but we want to find the best of all contrastive since all real explanation takes place relative to a set of alternatives explanations so which is the best explanation many scientists influenced by statistical reasoning think that the likeliest explanation is the best explanation but the likelihood of x is not in itself a strong argument for thinking it explains y i would rather argue that what makes one explanation better than another are things like aiming for and finding powerful deep causal features and mechanisms that we have warranted and justified reasons to believe in statistical especially the variety based on a bayesian epistemology reasoning generally has no room for these kinds of explanatory considerations the only thing that matters is the probabilistic relation between evidence and hypothesis that is also one of the main reasons i find abduction inference to the best explanation a better description and account of what constitute actual scientific reasoning and inferences in the social sciences regression is used to discover relationships or to disentangle cause and effect however investigators have only vague ideas as to the relevant variables and their causal order functional forms are chosen on the basis of convenience or familiarity serious problems of measurement are often encountered regression may offer useful ways of summarizing the data and making predictions investigators may be able to use summaries and predictions to draw substantive conclusions however i see no cases in which regression equations let alone the more complex methods have succeeded as engines for discovering causal relationships david freedman some statisticians and data scientists think that algorithmic formalisms somehow give them access to causality that is however simply not true assuming convenient things like faithfulness or stability is not to give proofs it s to assume what has to be proven deductive axiomatic methods used in statistics do no produce evidence for causal inferences the real causality we are searching for is the one existing in the real world around us if there is no warranted connection between axiomatically derived theorems and the real world well then we haven t really obtained the causation we are looking for if contributions made by statisticians to the understanding of causation are to be taken over with advantage in any specific field of inquiry then what is crucial is that the right relationship should exist between statistical and subject matter concerns the idea of causation as consequential manipulation is apt to research that can be undertaken primarily through experimental methods and especially to practical science where the central concern is indeed with the consequences of performing particular acts the development of this idea in the context of medical and agricultural research is as understandable as the development of that of causation as robust dependence within applied econometrics however the extension of the manipulative approach into sociology would not appear promising other than in rather special circumstances the more fundamental difficulty is that under the highly anthropocentric principle of no causation without manipulation the recognition that can be given to the action of individuals as having causal force is in fact peculiarly limited john h goldthorpe to save europe we have to abandon the euro 23 jun 2018 at 12 30 posted in economics 9 comments the euro crisis is far from over the tough austerity measures imposed in the eurozone has made economy after economy contract and it has not only made things worse in the periphery countries but also in countries like france and germany alarming facts that should be taken seriously the problems created to a large extent by the euro may not only endanger our economies but also our democracy itself how much whipping can democracy take how many more are going to get seriously hurt and ruined before we end this madness and scrap the euro the european idea or better ideology notwithstanding the euro has split europe in two as the engine of an ever closer union the currency s balance sheet has been disastrous norway and switzerland will not be joining the eu any time soon britain is actively considering leaving it altogether sweden and denmark were supposed to adopt the euro at some point that is now off the table the eurozone itself is split between surplus and deficit countries north and south germany and the rest at no point since the end of world war two have its nation states confronted each other with so much hostility the historic achievements of european unification have never been so threatened anyone wishing to understand how an institution such as the single currency can wreak such havoc needs a concept of money that goes beyond that of the liberal economic tradition and the sociological theory informed by it the conflicts in the eurozone can only be decoded with the aid of an economic theory that can conceive of money not merely as a system of signs that symbolize claims and contractual obligations but also in tune with weber s view as the product of a ruling organization and hence as a contentious and contested institution with distributive consequences full of potential for conflict now more than ever there is a grotesque gap between capitalism s intensifying reproduction problems and the collective energy needed to resolve them this may mean that there is no guarantee that the people who have been so kind as to present us with the euro will be able to protect us from its consequences or will even make a serious attempt to do so the sorcerer s apprentices will be unable to let go of the broom with which they aimed to cleanse europe of its pre modern social and anti capitalist foibles for the sake of a neoliberal transformation of its capitalism the most plausible scenario for the europe of the near and not so near future is one of growing economic disparities and of increasing political and cultural hostility between its peoples as they find themselves flanked by technocratic attempts to undermine democracy on the one side and the rise of new nationalist parties on the other these will seize the opportunity to declare themselves the authentic champions of the growing number of so called losers of modernization who feel they have been abandoned by a social democracy that has embraced the market and globalization wolfgang streeck great article and it actually confirms what wynne godley wrote more than twenty years ago if a government stops having its own currency it doesn t just give up control over monetary policy as normally understood its spending powers also become constrained in an entirely new way if a government does not have its own central bank on which it can draw cheques freely its expenditures can be financed only by borrowing in the open market in competition with businesses and this may prove excessively expensive or even impossible particularly under conditions of extreme emergency if europe is not to have a full scale budget of its own under the new arrangements it will still have by default a fiscal stance of its own made up of the individual budgets of component states the danger then is that the budgetary restraint to which governments are individually committed will impart a disinflationary bias that locks europe as a whole into a depression it is powerless to lift wynne godley share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky next page recent posts arbetslöshetsiffran som styr den ekonomiska politiken 50 år efter studenten personal finding the late student stuff love s secret stein s paradox a lesson on precision and unbiasedness audioholic summer research ett välförtjänt bottenrekord arbetslösheten inte statsskulden är problemet how credible is the credibility revolution in econometrics randomness and representativeness are not the same lönebildning och arbetslöshet i sverige nancy cartwright s contributions to the philosophy of science what does randomisation guarantee nothing model reification in statistics and econometrics why democracy outperforms dictatorship comments policy i like comments follow netiquette comments especially anonymous ones with pseudo argumentations 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