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d presumably red state subsidization in this map red states are net recipients of federal spending blue states are net donors in this map red represents republican and blue democrtic electoral votes in the 2008 presidential election pretty amazing posted by jazzbumpa at 5 09 pm 3 comments labels criticism current events politics shallow stupid willard i tried to picture mitt romney this morning but the only image i could conjure was of a chameleon drawn on an etch a sketch nestled in a huge pile of thousand dollar bills posted by jazzbumpa at 11 44 am 1 comment labels politics snark friday november 2 2012 the employment report i just left this comment at ci and am posting it here as a hedge against deletion as spencer reported at angry bear the unemployment rate ticked up from 7 8 to 7 9 but this may actually be a bullish development because it stemmed from a 578 000 jump in the labor force a large increase in the labor force may mean that people are more optimistic about employment prospects and are rejoining the labor force http www angrybearblog com 2012 11 the employment situation html per calculated risk this was another encouraging employment report the 171 000 payroll jobs added in october plus the 84 000 in upward revisions to the august and september reports suggests decent job growth recently not all the news is good u 6 an alternate measure of unemployment only declined slightly to 14 6 the average workweek was unchanged and average hourly earnings decreased slightly employment population ratio up slightly number of part time worker for economic reasons declined unemployed over 26 weeks declining sharply http www calculatedriskblog com 2012 11 employment encouraging report also more html not a stellar report to be sure but i don tt see any good reason to emphasize the negative cheers jzb posted by jazzbumpa at 3 35 pm 5 comments why not balance the budget on 10 30 in an open thread at ab i posted a summary of my experience up to that time in commenting at confounded interest a blog by gmu prof anthony sandler the ci post in question has since been taken down this generated an interesting discussion that i unfortunately lost track of with some links to good information that i don t want to lose keeping a link to that post is one of the reasons for this post another is to show some interesting data that mcwop provided 1817 1821 u s federal debt reduced 29 depression began 1819 1823 1836 u s federal debt reduced 99 depression began 1837 1852 1857 u s federal debt reduced 59 depression began 1857 1867 1873 u s federal debt reduced 27 depression began 1873 1880 1893 u s federal debt reduced 57 depression began 1893 1920 1930 u s federal debt reduced 36 depression began 1929 1998 2001 u s federal debt reduced 9 recession began 2001 2004 2007 u s deficit reduced 61 from 413b to 160b great recession began 2008 i had read somewhere attribution lost that balancing the budget was the route to recession with iirc a six for six record the above list show 8 such examples food for thought posted by jazzbumpa at 3 25 pm 5 comments labels angry bear debt deficits economics non meshing gears recessions thursday november 1 2012 an open question to romney supporters if you re going to vote for romney either you must like him as a candidate be such a die hard republican the candidate doesn t matter or hate obama so much you re rather vote for a dead skunk have i missed any possibility whatever your reason please answer for me as many of these three questions as you are able in as much specific detail as you can muster what do you like about mitt romney that makes you want to vote for him what do you like about republicans or hate about democrats that make you a die hard republican voter what is there about obama that makes you hate him so much posted by jazzbumpa at 4 39 pm 9 comments labels current events politics questions wednesday october 31 2012 halloween fear the scariest thought i ve had this halloween evening and i can t get rid of it is imagining some poor guy in a major natural disaster in the romney universe of privatized fema responsibility who has just lost his house and all his possessions having to pay halliburton 100 for a pint of water so his child doesn t die of thirst posted by jazzbumpa at 10 32 pm 1 comment labels conservative shark jumping misery really sad we are so screwed fowl and fishy inflation it has been suggested that the rapid increase in the prices of fish fowl meat and eggs for about two years following october 2009 was the result of qe causing inflation in these items from this calculated risk graph we can get the qe date line qe was announced on nov 25 2008 and expanded in april 2009 it ended in may 2010 qe ii was hinted at in sept 2010 announced in nov 2010 and ended in august 2011 the timing correspondence is less than stellar since the yoy increase in prices for those food items dropped like a rock from october 08 though oct 09 it then shot up to a 7 1 2 year high in may of 2011 this can be seen in the red line of graph 1 which also shows the cpi for all items except food and energy cpilfesl in blue graph 1 yoy price increases for selected food stuffs and all items less food and energy to assume a cause and effect relationship you have to account for a time lag of a year from the announcement and 6 months from the expansion of qe to the turn around in those price increases from the oct 09 bottom remember through the first 11 months of qe the yoy change in those prices dropped dramatically between may and november 2010 while no qe program was in effect these prices had the steepest part of their rise after qe ii ended in august 2011 the yoy price increase remained high for those items until the end of the year and then fell rapidly a longer view reveals that the increase in those food prices oscillates continuously around the all items less food and energy line the trough to trough period is irregular averaging 3 52 years with a standard deviation of 0 45 year 5 measurements the trough to trough time from may 06 to oct 09 was a very typical 3 4 years it is very hard to look at that graph and see anything unusual about the 2008 2012 region other than the depth of the trough shortly after the great recession it appeared to me that the blue line of graph 1 might be a crude approximation of a long average of the red line this turns out not quite to be the case since the two lines are measuring different baskets of goods what we have is the yoy increase for these food items oscillating around its own mean that sounds like a tautology but let s look a little deeper graph 2 shows the same data along with some long averages of the food stuffs yoy price increase line these are the 5 yr light blue 8 yr yellow and 13 yr purple moving averages and the average for the whole data set 2 9 bright green i ve also included an envelope one standard deviation 3 06 above 5 96 and below 0 17 the mean in dark green graph 2 yoy price increases for selected food stuffs with avgs and all items less food and energy this sort of resembles a control chart the std dev envelope isn t a hard barrier but does tend to turn the data path back toward the mean unless something strange happens frex the big rise from late 02 to early 04 followed the iraq invasion and resulting disruption in petroleum pricing the 09 trough was the result of the great recession these are explainable variations note also that the moving average lines tended to run below the cpilfesl line prior to late 2002 and have tended to run above it since this is to be expected since these items are basically the top of the food chain and have several layers of fuel dependent contributors in their cost structure recall that until 2002 fuel prices were low and since then except for the great recession have increased steadily i m quite sympathetic to the idea that qe has done very little to help ease the economic doldrums following the gr but i see no reason at all to believe that it has contributed to the pain and suffering of ordinary citizens at either the grocery store or the gas pump posted by jazzbumpa at 5 36 pm no comments labels economics food inflation monday october 15 2012 gdp growth caused by tax cuts has never happened mike s post here got me thinking i ll telegraph my conclusion he dramatically understated his case you can see the long range view of nominal and inflation adjusted gpd growth in graph 1 of fred quarterly yoy percent change data graph 1 yoy growth nominal and inflation adjusted gdp nominal gdp growth was in a secular up trend from 1960 through 1980 however inflation adjusted gdp growth quickly peaked after the kennedy johnson tax cut reaching a maximum value of 8 5 in q4 of 65 and q1 of 66 it then dropped dramatically for the next four years this peak value has been matched only once since in 1984 during a sharp rebound from the double dip recession of 1980 82 since then in the wake of numerous tax cuts the rate of gdp growth has been anemic to get a look at the rate of growth i took an 8 year average of the annual percent change data presented above and then plotted a 5 year rate of change for that data this is essentially the 2nd derivative of gdp or gdp acceleration as shown in graph 2 graph 2 gdp acceleration inflation adjusted gdp acceleration peaked in q3 1966 fueled by the inflation of the 70 s ngdp acceleration stayed high until q1 1980 then plummeted for 9 years it has been relentlessly negative since inflation adjusted gdp acceleration has not done quite as badly in this disinflationary era but has been below zero more than half the time since 1970 this is a little bit worse than coasting this all might seem a bit abstract but the message is clear if tax cuts were good for the economy then gdp growth would be increasing in other words acceleration would be positive and most especially so after a tax cut the data is not consistent with this notion clinton s famous tax increase preceded increased gdp growth by either measure and an upturn in acceleration the bush tax cuts preceded decreasing gdp growth i m not going to get into a correlation vs causation discussion i ll simply say that tax cuts over 5 decades have been an utter failure at stimulating real economic growth in any inflationary environment since the real world data correlation is counter to the received conservative wisdom it might be worth trying an anti conservative approach it might also give the ngdp targeting enthusiasts something to ponder cross posted at angry bear posted by jazzbumpa at 5 20 pm 6 comments labels conservatism criticism gdp taxation thursday october 11 2012 debt and growth art at the new arthurian economics and i are looking at the relationship between debt and economic growth art started with an observation of two fred series total credit market debt owed tcmdo and gross domestic product gdp nominal or gdpc1 inflation adjusted take your pick graph 1 from fred shows these data series i ve chosen nominal gdp and for reference also included the total federal debt graph 1 tcmdo gdp and total federal debt in 1950 tcmdo was about 1 3 times gdp but growing a bit more quickly by 1980 the ratio was 1 6 and by 1987 it was greater than 2 now that ratio is approaching 4 note that tcmdo is also close to 4 times greater than total public debt this is why art and i agree that private not public debt is the problem that needs to be addressed but is largely ignored linked here are art s posts with graphs of yoy growth in both factors pre 1980 and post 1980 pre 1980 their moves are similar in magnitude and pretty well coordinated post 1980 there is still some occasional similarity of motion but the coordination breaks down and debt growth is generally quite a bit higher than gdp growth the 80 s in particular stand out as being starkly different from the previous period graph 2 shows the entire data set since 1952 graph 2 yoy growth in tcmdo and gdp these observations led art to the reasonable hypothesis that output growth slowed when debt became excessive this in fact might explain the great stagnation i suggested and art accepted two corollaries to his hypothesis 1 there is a non excessive amount of debt let s call it just right 2 below the just right amount there might also be not enough actually there is a lower level hypothesis to which art s is corollary that there is a functional relationship between debt and growth in which growth is the dependent variable this is what i will explore in this post graph 3 is a scatter plot of gdp vs tcmdo yoy change for each fred quarterly data from q4 1952 through q2 2012 with a best fit straight line included graph 3 gdp vs tcmdo yoy change the relationship is quite clearly positive the r 2 value at 39 is rather low but not terrible there is quite a bit of scatter in the data note the circle of data points around the left end of the line more on that later next i divided the data by decades frex 1961 1970 this admittedly simplistic data parsing reveals that the slope and r 2 values are strongly variable over time graph 4 shows the scatter plot along with the slope and r 2 values for each decade these data values are arranged in the chart in chronological order and color matched with the corresponding data points graph 4 gdp vs tcmdo yoy change by decade i ve added a brown line connecting the dots for the first decade of this century the chronology proceeds from a cluster near the center of the graph into a clockwise circular spiral graph 5 shows how the slope and r 2 vary over time graph 5 slope and r 2 over time for gdp vs tcmdo after the 60 s the slope plummets and by the 80 s r 2 is a laughable 0 035 though the slope has remained low r 2 has since recovered to 0 38 which is near the whole data set value of 0 39 and only slightly less than the 0 40 to 0 44 of the first three decades the slope changes can be interpreted as generally less gdp bang for the tcmdo buck as the tcmdo gdp ratio increases this is totally consistent with art s hypothesis i have more to say about the gdp tcmdo relationship but this post is getting long so i ll save it for a follow up for now i ll close with a few questions 1 do you think we re on to something 2 what do you think of the methodology 3 excessive debt is suggestive but non specific how should this concept be quantized 4 how should i go at exploring corollaries 1 and 2 mentioned after graph 2 5 any thoughts on what was there about the 80 s that blew up the prior debt gdp relationship 6 is there such a thing as productive vs non productive debt and how would they be characterized i look forward to your constructive comments cross posted at angry bear posted by jazzbumpa at 12 42 pm 1 comment labels debt economics gdp tuesday october 9 2012 strategic lying as political art if you listen to randi rhodes you know she is still livid over romney being declared the winner in last week s we ll call it a debate for the nonce alas though the reason he won is that poll numbers have mo...
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