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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during September 2019;
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the (175), and (94), that (58), sep (31), not (30), 2019 (28), #rational (26), are (24), real (23), for (22), comments (20), economics (20), #expectations (20), economic (19), you (19), new (19), share (18), opens (18), window (18), mar (16), apr (16), may (16), jun (16), jan (16), posted (16), this (15), have (15), jul (15), aug (15), oct (15), nov (15), dec (15), feb (15), och (15), lönebildning (14), arbetslöshet (14), people (14), about (14), its (14), has (14), world (14), models (14), lars (12), 2012 (12), 2013 (12), 2014 (12), 2015 (12), 2016 (12), 2017 (12), 2018 (12), 2020 (12), 2021 (12), 2022 (12), 2023 (12), 2024 (12), 2025 (12), with (12), bluesky (12), facebook (12), 2011 (11), how (11), there (11), was (11), mainstream (11), all (11), only (10), model (10), off (10), but (10), way (10), sargent (10), theory (9), more (9), same (8), make (8), one (8), probability (8), from (8), approach (8), varia (7), time (7), what (7), alternatives (7), nobel (7), choice (7), other 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ings happen in these analogue economy models rather than engineering things happening in real economies mainstream economics has since long given up on the real world and contents itself with proving things about thought up worlds empirical evidence only plays a minor role in economic theory where models largely function as a substitute for empirical evidence hopefully humbled by the manifest failure of its theoretical pretences the one sided almost religious insistence on axiomatic deductivist modelling as the only scientific activity worthy of pursuing in economics will give way to methodological pluralism based on ontological considerations rather than formalistic tractability when that day comes the sveriges riksbank prize in economic sciences in memory of alfred nobel will hopefully be awarded real macroeconomists and not axiomatic deductivist modellers like thomas sargent and economists of that ilk in the efficient market rational expectations camp share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky the rational expectations hoax 26 sep 2019 at 16 25 posted in economics 1 comment it can be said without great controversy that no other theoretical approach in this century has ever enjoyed the same level of ubiquity throughout the social sciences as the rational choice approach enjoys today despite this ubiquity the success of the approach has been very tenuous its advance has been accompanied by an intense debate over its relative merit the approach has been subject to the usual criticism of blatant inaccuracy given by outsiders to any would be theoretical hegemon and to a predictable fuzzying of its assumptions as it is adapted to a wider and wider range of empirical phenomena more notably however some of the most virulent mere criticisms of the rational choice approach have come from within its own ranks despite the absence of any clear cut resolution to this debate there appears to be a growing consensus about the strengths and weaknesses of the approach to put it briefly the main strengths of the approach are that its conventional assumptions about actors are parsimonious and applicable to a very broad range of environments generating usually falsifiable and sometimes empirically confirmed hypotheses about action across these environments this provides conventional rational choice with a combination of generality and predictive power not found in other approaches however the conventional assumptions of rational choice not only lack verisimilitude in many circumstances but also fail to accurately predict a wide range of human behaviors in mainstream economics especially in microeconomics social choice and game theory it is taken for granted by definition that the actors appearing in the model world are rational and try to satisfy given preferences but confronting the axiomatic model world with the real world it usually turns out that quite a few actors are irrational in a classic experiment conducted by barbara mcneil and colleagues it was investigated how variations in the way information were presented to patients influenced their choices between alternative therapies individuals randomly assigned were asked to imagine that they had lung cancer and to choose between two different therapies different groups of respondents received input data that differed only in whether or not the treatments were identified and whether the outcomes were framed in terms of the probability of living or the probability of dying the experiment demonstrated that by only changing the emphasis from surviving x to dying 1 x in the description of the treatment alternatives there was a significant change in population preferences according to rational choice theory the way you frame alternatives should be totally inconsequential rational people do not change preferences for inconsequential reasons so what do we learn from this kind of experiments this in mainstream as if model worlds there are only rational people and in real life there are a lot of irrational people things are obviously not as postulated in mainstream microeconomics the final court of appeal for models is the real world as long as no convincing justification is put forward for how the inferential bridging is made from the model world to the real world rational choice models have to be considered little more than hand waving those who want to build macroeconomics on microfoundations usually maintain that the only robust policies and institutions are those based on rational expectations and representative actors as yours truly repeatedly argued there is really no support for this conviction at all on the contrary if we want to have anything of interest to say on real economies financial crisis and the decisions and choices real people make it is high time to place macroeconomic models building on representative actors and rational expectations microfoundations in the dustbin of pseudo science for if this microfounded macroeconomics has nothing to say about the real world and the economic problems out there why should we care about it the final court of appeal for macroeconomic models is the real world and as long as no convincing justification is put forward for how the inferential bridging de facto is made macroeconomic modelbuilding is little more than hand waving that gives us a rather little warrant for making inductive inferences from models to real world target systems if substantive questions about the real world are being posed it is the formalistic mathematical representations utilized to analyze them that have to match reality not the other way around the real macroeconomic challenge is to accept uncertainty and still try to explain why economic transactions take place instead of simply conjuring the problem away by assuming rational expectations and treating uncertainty as if it was possible to reduce it to stochastic risk that is scientific cheating and it has been going on for too long now share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky hyman minsky at 100 24 sep 2019 at 16 57 posted in economics comments off on hyman minsky at 100 on the occasion of the 100th anniversary of the birth of hyman minsky 1919 1996 i recommend every one to listen to bbc 4 where duncan weldon tries to explain in what way hyman minsky s thoughts on banking and finance offer a radical challenge to mainstream economic theory as a young research stipendiate in the u s yours truly had the great pleasure and privilege of having hyman minsky as a teacher he was a great inspiration at the time he still is share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky nobel prize winner thomas sargent talking absolute unadulterated horse shit 24 sep 2019 at 11 28 posted in economics 9 comments i especially love the way this nobel laureate explains rational expectations there are so many people out there and it is so difficult to know how each one of them thinks about the future so let s just assume they think the same problem solved and that absolute nonsense reasoning rendered this guy a nobel prize in economics the tiny little problem that there is no hard empirical evidence that verifies rational expectations models obviously doesn t bother rational expectations überpriest thomas sargent he goes on defending the epistemological status of the rational expectations hypothesis arguing that since it focuses on outcomes and does not pretend to have behavioral content it has proved to be a powerful tool for making precise statements yeah precise and rigorous but what good does that do when they are all wrong as sargent says in the interview the concept of rational expectations was first developed by john muth in an econometrica article in 1961 rational expectations and the theory of price movements and later from the 1970s and onward applied to macroeconomics muth framed his rational expectations hypothesis reh in terms of probability distributions expectations of firms or more generally the subjective probability distribution of outcomes tend to be distributed for the same information set about the prediction of the theory or the objective probability distributions of outcomes but muth was also very open with the non descriptive character of his concept the hypothesis of rational expectations does not assert that the scratch work of entrepreneurs resembles the system of equations in any way nor does it state that predictions of entrepreneurs are perfect or that their expectations are all the same to muth its main usefulness was its generality and ability to be applicable to all sorts of situations irrespective of the concrete and contingent circumstances at hand muth s concept was later picked up by new classical macroeconomics where it soon became the dominant model assumption and has continued to be a standard assumption made in many neoclassical macro economic models most notably in the fields of real business cycles and finance being a cornerstone of the efficient market hypothesis reh basically says that people on the average hold expectations that will be fulfilled this makes the economist s analysis enormously simplistic since it means that the model used by the economist is the same as the one people use to make decisions and forecasts of the future but in the real world it is not possible to just assume as does sargent that we know the exact probability distribution of future events on the contrary we can t even assume that probability distributions are the right way to characterize understand or explain acts and decisions made under uncertainty when we simply do not know when we have not got a clue when genuine uncertainty prevails reh simply is not reasonable in those circumstances it is not a useful assumption since under those circumstances the future is not like the past and henceforth we cannot use the same probability distribution if it at all exists to describe both the past and future if we want to have anything of interest to say on real economies financial crisis and the decisions and choices real people make it is high time to replace the rational expectations hypothesis with more relevant and realistic assumptions concerning economic agents and their expectations rational expectations paraphrasing nichols kaldor is a barren and irrelevant apparatus of thought to deal with the way real world people make decisions and act it sure is thoroughly misleading and pretty useless and also one of the major obstacles to developing economics as a science rational expectations doesn t pass the real world smell test it is just silly nonsense on stilts share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky greta thunberg on the leaders that have failed us 23 sep 2019 at 20 09 posted in politics society 7 comments we are in the middle of a climate breakdown and all they can talk about is money and fairytales of eternal economic growth in the postwar period it has become increasingly clear that economic growth has not only brought greater prosperity the other side of growth in the form of pollution contamination wastage of resources and climate change has emerged as perhaps the greatest challenge of our time against the mainstream theory s view on the economy as a balanced and harmonious system where growth and the environment go hand in hand ecological economists object that it can rather be characterized as an unstable system that at an accelerating pace consumes energy and matter and thereby pose a threat against the very basis for its survival the romanian american economist nicholas georgescu roegen 1906 1994 argued in his epochal the entropy law and the economic process 1971 that the economy was actually a giant thermodynamic system in which entropy increases inexorably and our material basis disappears if we choose to continue to produce with the techniques we have developed then our society and earth will disappear faster than if we introduce small scale production resource saving technologies and limited consumption following georgescu roegen ecological economists have argued that industrial society inevitably leads to increased environmental pollution energy crisis and an unsustainable growth today we really need to re consider how we look upon how our economy influences the environment and climate change and as greta thunberg and other youngsters tell us today we need to do it fast nicholas georgescu roegen gives us a good starting point for doing so share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky suppose that you work in a restaurant 22 sep 2019 at 19 32 posted in varia comments off on suppose that you work in a restaurant suppose that you work in a restaurant where two regular customers ann and bob are equally likely to come in for a meal further you know that ann is indifferent among the 10 items on the menu whereas bob strictly prefers the hamburger while in the kitchen you receive an order for a hamburger who is more likely to be the customer ann or bob i just love this paper not so much for its content which is fine but for its opening suppose that you work in a restaurant i get the feeling that econ papers always take the perspective of people who are more likely to be owners or at least consumers not employees in restaurants sure there was that one famous paper about taxicab drivers but i feel like most of the time you ll hear economists talking about why it s rational to tip or how much a restaurant should charge its customers or ways of ramping up workers performance etc it s just refreshing to read an econ paper that takes the employee s perspective not to make an economic point and not to make a political point but just cos why not kind of like night of the living dead andrew gelman up in the blue personal 22 sep 2019 at 18 35 posted in varia comments off on up in the blue personal 20190921_150219 1 mp4 jeanette s birthday present alternatives economiques 22 sep 2019 at 18 01 posted in economics comments off on alternatives economiques sous pression depuis des années déjà l enseignement des ses est repris en main par l académisme néoclassique utilisé comme outil pédagogique par certains enseignants alternatives economiques s est retrouvé associé aux critiques de la droite et du patronat à l encontre de cette matière alternatives economiques est né en 1980 le magazine tire son nom de l interpellation de margaret thatcher arrivée au pouvoir en 1979 au royaume uni qui avait l habitude de défendre sa politique ultralibérale en affirmant que there is no alternative tina il n y a pas d alternative depuis le départ le projet de notre média consiste au contraire à montrer qu il en existe toujours et que les choi...
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