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h all of that debt was newly created each year all the debt existing at the end of the great inflation for example is adjusted for inflation since the end of the great inflation but some of that debt was created before the great inflation when the value of the dollar was more the wikipedia graph understates the purchasing power of older deficits the sudden change around 1982 on the wikipedia graph is due in large part to the sudden slowdown of inflation for graph 1 above the inflation adjusted deficits i took the 1947 deficit and converted it from 1947 dollars to 2009 dollars i took the 1948 deficit and converted it from 1948 dollars to 2009 dollars when i got to it i took the 1970 deficit and converted it from 1970 dollars to 2009 dollars i converted each year s deficit from that year s dollars to 2009 dollars that s what i did then for graph 2 i added them up but that s not how you get a graph like the wikipedia graph to figure the year 1970 for the wikipedia graph you take all the deficits from 1947 to 1970 add them up and convert them from 1970 dollars to 2009 dollars when you re plotting the point 1971 on the graph you add up all the deficits from 1947 to 1971 and convert the sum from 1971 dollars to 2009 dollars to get a graph like the wikipedia graph you take all the debt accumulated up to some date and you convert from that date s dollars to base year dollars 2009 dollars or whatever to get a graph like the wikipedia graph you ignore the actual value of the money at the time it was borrowed you just convert from the year you are plotting to the base year that s bad arithmetic i think today i want to look at debt relative to gdp i want to look at the inflation adjusted federal debt relative to inflation adjusted gdp to do that i ll use a google drive graph but let me start with the fred graph i used to gather numbers graph 4 three measures of the federal debt relative to gdp the red line shows the gross federal debt as a percent of gdp there are two other lines on graph 4 green and blue running close together the blue line which starts at 1970 shows the federal debt held by the public as a percent of gdp the green line shows federal debt held by the public inflation adjusted like the red line on the wikipedia graph divided by inflation adjusted gdp the green line is for all practical purposes identical to the blue line which is not adjusted for inflation the green line shows a measure of accumulated debt which is a stock relative to gdp which is a flow with both measures adjusted as if they were flow variables now i am ready this post reviews two ways of inflation adjusting debt my way as shown in graph 2 and everybody else s way as shown in the wikipedia graph now i take these two measures of debt and show each one relative to inflation adjusted gdp graph 5 two measures of real federal debt relative to real output from the inflation adjusted deficit accum and rgdp spreadsheet the blue line on graph 5 is the blue line from graph 2 accumulated real deficits divided by real gdp the green line on graph 5 is the same as the green line on graph 4 the two lines are similar after about 1982 one rides a little higher than the other but the two share the same general shape before 1982 it s a different story before 1982 the green line trends down while the blue line trends upward these two lines cannot both be correct the green line trends down because the calculation ignores the purchasing power of the borrowed money at the time of borrowing the calculation is visible on graph 4 posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 3 comments sunday november 17 2013 an explicit qualifier glad to see josh wojnilower is active again i m going to assume he is now fully capable of writing things that are fully beyond my comprehension i m not going to try to participate in any discussion of his new paper on the endogeneity of money but i do want to look at one small piece of the abstract that he shares i think it makes particularly explicit something that needs to be particularly explicit the theory behind endogenous money is that banks issue new loans credit on demand and look for reserves later the federal reserve must ultimately accommodate increases in demand for reserves from the banking sector to maintain an interest rate target in other words if the fed fails to accommodate the demand for reserves interest rates are affected that is absolutely clear and absolutely true and to my mind it is a simple case of supply and demand if demand increases and supply does not prices must rise if the demand for reserves increases and the supply of reserves does not the interest rate on reserves must rise it bears repeating because it is so often left unsaid it is the way the system works too often the afterthought to maintain an interest rate target is left out of the original text leave it out and you re left with a statement that s not really true but people say it all the time people say the fed must accommodate the demand for reserves no it doesn t must accommodate the demand for reserves no it doesn t it depends what the fed wants to do as a rule though the fed has been known to let interest rates change quite often ha i just looked at fred s fedfunds page and guess what i saw averages of daily figures the fedfunds rate changes every day graph 1 fedfunds in the zlb era what brings this to a head why do i write of it because i came across something called explainer how does the fed stimulate the economy where we read yellen emphasized that one of the federal reserve s primary duties is to pursue its dual mandate for maximum employment and stable prices the fed attempts to pursue these two goals through changes in its target interest rate see they like to change the interest rate it s what they do posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 13 comments saturday november 16 2013 financial and what don t look at today s graph just look at the data set titles in the top blue border the two data series shown on the graph are the two main components of total credit market debt owed the two main components are financial and nonfinancial debt not financial and real not financial and productive not productive and nonproductive nothing like that doesn t this show what the real focus is among policymakers and isn t that focus the real problem posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 15 comments friday november 15 2013 too late some guy comes in at work a customer here to check on the progress of the job we re doing for him i overhear from the next room one minute they re talking about how wide a load can we put on a truck the number 8 6 is mentioned the word regulations is mentioned and suddenly the guy is joking i want bigger government i want more government you can t win the argument for more government things have progressed too far it s a joke now the call for more government you re a joke these days if you re serious about that posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 4 comments thursday november 14 2013 economics is not a morality play krugman 25 october 2010 what can be done one answer is inflation if you can get it which will do two things it will make it possible to have a negative real interest rate and it will in itself erode the debt of the sams yes that will in a way be rewarding their past excesses but economics is not a morality play incorrect do you see the assumption in the excerpt here yes that will in a way be rewarding their past excesses the assumption is that people have debt because of past excesses and krugman doesn t offer this as simple arithmetic but as morality he s not saying spending in excess of income is what creates debt he s saying people spending more than they should is what creates debt that s not how i see things to enhance economic growth our economic policies encourage spending when spending leads to inflation our policies restrict the quantity of money yeah yeah they raise interest rates to fight inflation but they raise interest rates by restricting the quantity of money to encourage growth we encourage spending then to fight inflation we restrict money do you see how this works it s not symmetrical to encourage growth we encourage new borrowing and spending when all that borrowing and spending leads to inflation we suddenly cut off funding for further expansion we have no policy that encourages people to repay their existing debt a little faster thus draining money from circulation and fighting inflation with a symmetrical response to the borrowing and spending that ended up causing inflation in the first place no instead we cut off new borrowing and new spending and create a recession meanwhile all the money we borrowed the money that was causing inflation continues to circulate we have no policy to address it we don t have debt because of moral excess we have debt because our economic policies conflict with each other we encourage spending which means we encourage borrowing always then we jack up interest rates so that the things we encourage are more expensive but we never encourage the repayment of debt policy is the reason we have so much debt not morality posted by the arthurian at 6 33 am 1 comments wednesday november 13 2013 the difference between macro and micro not long ago i was watching the price of gasoline go up over 4 i still bought just as much can t do anything about that but i was worried about being able to make ends meet that s micro now i m watching the price of gasoline go down near 3 50 i don t buy any more at the lower price where would i go but i worry now that we ll be getting another recession like the last time gas prices fell that s macro posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments tuesday november 12 2013 another subtle attempt to demolish nation state borders some insurance guy came around at work to tell us how to get our insurance related costs down and ever since the plant manager has been tracking down the new safety data sheets that replace the old msds in the dusty binder that nobody ever opens you heard of this it s an effort to harmonize safety standards or purported safety standards at least beyond national borders a globally harmonized system they call it who is doing this anybody who wants to save money dammit hey did you vote for this new world order crap on june 19 2013 the occupational safety and health administration osha signed a memorandum of understanding with the healthy environments and consumer safety branch of the department of health of canada hecs dr david michaels assistant secretary of labor for osha signed the partnership agreement with suzy mcdonald director general workplace hazardous materials directorate hecs the mou allows osha and hecs to collaborate on implementing the united nations globally harmonized system of classification and labelling of chemicals ghs in their respective jurisdictions and continue to coordinate efforts in any future developments of the ghs it promises something for everyone once implemented the revised standard will improve the quality and consistency of hazard information in the workplace making it safer for workers by providing easily understandable information on appropriate handling and safe use of hazardous chemicals this update will also help reduce trade barriers and result in productivity improvements for american businesses that regularly handle store and use hazardous chemicals while providing cost savings for american businesses that periodically update safety data sheets and labels for chemicals covered under the hazard communication standard something for everyone it satisfies both the liberal neurosis to give everybody a little something and the conservative king of the hill psychosis what it is just like the common market was and the eu still is and free trade agreements is an attempt to consolidate markets and to consolidate political power and to ultimately circumvent national sovereignty and to hoodwink voters as needed to make it happen q a q i understand that the united nations revises the ghs every two years how will osha manage and communicate changes to the hazard communication standard a it is expected that the ghs will be a living document and is expected to remain up to date and relevant therefore further changes may be adopted on a two year cycle presently most of the recent updates have been clarification of text however osha anticipates that future updates of the hazard communication standard hcs may be necessary and can be done through various rulemaking options including technical updates for minor terminology changes direct final rules for text clarification and notice and comment rulemaking for more substantive or controversial updates such as additional criteria or changes in health or safety hazard classes or categories or maybe i m just paranoid posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments monday november 11 2013 those graphs again i have a couple questions about the result i got in yesterday s post the five graphs from yesterday s post are reproduced at right graph 1 shows fred s federal surplus or deficit series fyfsd with the numbers inverted and the inflation stripped out of them 1 from november 10 graph 2 and 3 show the federal debt said to be corrected for inflation graph 2 shows both the gross federal debt black and the debt held by the public red it s easy enough to see the flat spot pre 1980 on the these graphs easy to see the sudden change and the sharp increase after 1980 2 from wikipedia the post 1980 increase seems steeper on graph 3 than graph 2 because graph 3 is taller the uptrend is stretched upward to fill up the space in the taller graph graph 3 exaggerates again these graphs show essentially no increase in real federal debt between world war two and 1980 then a sudden change and a persistent rapid increase in real federal debt i say these graphs are wrong 3 from slaying the dragon of debt like the two previous graphs the red line on graph 4 shows the federal debt corrected for inflation i argue in the november 5 post that the calculation used for the red line gives incorrect results not only this red line but also graphs 2 and 3 are incorrect the yellow line on graph 4 is the correct result 4 from november 5 the result i got yesterday graph 5 shows the accumulating total of inflation adjusted federal deficits on graph 1 the blue line here curves up gradually through the 1960s and 70s like the yellow line on graph 4 the uptrend continues through the 1980s there is no sudden change around 1980 as there is in graph 2 and graph 3 and the red line on graph 4 5 from november 10 so i was saying i want to check a couple things in graph 5 for one thing the blue line on graph 5 starts out at zero or slightly below zero actually given that the start of data is 1947 this blue line starts after the end of the second world war after the end of the second world war graph 2 and 3 run flat but well above the zero level why the difference easy answer the line on graph 5 starts at zero because it does...
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