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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during May 2023;
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ynes advocated for the introduction of a general financial transaction tax after the stock market crash in 1929 it was because he believed that the market should bear the costs that its instability imbalances and disruptions give rise to those who in their pursuit of profit are willing to take unnecessary risks and cause lasting damage to the economy must themselves contribute to paying the bill it should hurt and it should hurt if the lesson is to be learned shiller emphasizes just like keynes that when it comes to crisis solutions one must distinguish between the short and long term in the short term perspective it is necessary to mitigate the effects of price declines in housing and other assets through various measures there are no guarantees that it will help but fundamentally there are no sustainable alternatives doing nothing would only fuel an already somewhat paralyzing uncertainty when the house is engulfed in flames we cannot simply stand on the sidelines and discuss the best method to extinguish it fires like financial bubbles have a nasty ability to spread in the long term it is clearly beneficial for asset prices to fall back to a level that corresponds to their real value a decrease in the price of one s house does not make it less habitable however if the wheels of the economy were to come to a halt the consequences would be very real shiller argues forcefully for a solution he calls financial democracy which he sees as a powerful remedy sound financial principles should be extended to encompass larger parts of society it s not only financial market participants who should have access to good information and expertise instead of avoiding all risks which would be devastating to a society s vitality and creativity we should learn to manage insurable risks in a rational way the basic idea is that extensive institutional changes improved financial advice increased transparency freely accessible financial databases and more should reduce the long term risk of speculative bubbles emerging it is doubt not belief that creates new knowledge shiller s research has strongly shown that we cannot both have our cake and eat it too as long as we have an economy with unregulated financial markets we will also be prone to periodically recurring crises shiller provides us with both a map and a compass and his proposals can actively contribute together with stricter regulation of the financial market to reducing the risks of costly financial system crises in the long run however if we reflexively refuse to see the extent of the problems we will once again be helpless when the next crisis looms share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky self adjusting markets 24 may 2023 at 15 30 posted in economics 2 comments paul krugman has repeatedly over the years argued that we should continue to use mainstream economics hobby horses like is lm and as ad models here s one example so why do as ad we do want somewhere along the way to get across the notion of the self correcting economy the notion that in the long run we may all be dead but that we also have a tendency to return to full employment via price flexibility or to put it differently you do want somehow to make clear the notion which even fairly keynesian guys like me share that money is neutral in the long run i seriously doubt that keynes would have been impressed by having his theory characterized by catchwords like tendency to return to full employment and money is neutral in the long run one of keynes s central tenets is that there is no strong automatic tendency for economies to move towards full employment levels money doesn t matter in mainstream macroeconomic models that s true according to the classical dichotomy real variables output and employment are independent of monetary variables and so enable mainstream economics to depict the economy as basically a barter system but in the real world in which we happen to live money certainly does matter money is not neutral and money matters in both the short run and the long run the theory which i desiderate would deal with an economy in which money plays a part of its own and affects motives and decisions and is in short one of the operative factors in the situation so that the course of events cannot be predicted in either the long period or in the short without a knowledge of the behaviour of money between the first state and the last and it is this which we ought to mean when we speak of a monetary economy j m keynes a monetary theory of production 1933 share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky universalism vs tribalism 24 may 2023 at 15 17 posted in politics society comments off on universalism vs tribalism it s now an article of faith that universalism like other enlightenment ideas is a sham that was invented to disguise eurocentric views that supported colonialism when i first heard such claims some fifteen years ago i thought they were so flimsy they d soon disappear for the claims are not simply ungrounded they turn enlightenment upside down enlightenment thinkers invented the critique of eurocentrism and were the first to attack colonialism on the basis of universalist ideas in the last few years the enlightenment has been held responsible for most of our misery just as a century ago the source for contemporary suffering was called modernity something big after all must be to blame enlightenment bashing may have begun in american universities but its reach has swept through the culture in much of the western world they forget that the enlightenment emerged from a blasted landscape on a continent soaked with blood those who dismiss enlightenment thinkers as naive or optimistic not only ignore their writings more importantly they ignore the history that formed the background to their thought susan neiman share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky wokeism and the commodified academic industry 23 may 2023 at 14 52 posted in education school politics society comments off on wokeism and the commodified academic industry share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky the problem with identity politics and wokeism 23 may 2023 at 09 44 posted in politics society comments off on the problem with identity politics and wokeism share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky the limited epistemic value of variation analysis 23 may 2023 at 07 20 posted in statistics econometrics 8 comments while appeal to r squared is a common rhetorical device it is a very tenuous connection to any plausible explanatory virtues for many reasons either it is meant to be merely a measure of predictability in a given data set or it is a measure of causal influence in either case it does not tell us much about explanatory power taken as a measure of predictive power it is limited in that it predicts variances only but what we mostly want to predict is levels about which it is silent in fact two models can have exactly the same r squared and yet describe regression lines with very different slopes the natural predictive measure of levels furthermore even in predicting variance it is entirely dependent on the variance in the sample if a covariate shows no variation then it cannot predict anything this leads to getting very different measures of explanatory power across samples for reasons not having any obvious connection to explanation taken as a measure of causal explanatory power r squared does not fare any better the problem of explaining variances rather than levels shows up here as well if it measures causal influence it has to be influences on variances but we often do not care about the causes of variance in economic variables but instead about the causes of levels of those variables about which it is silent similarly because the size of r squared varies with variance in the sample it can find a large effect in one sample and none in another for arbitrary noncausal reasons so while there may be some useful epistemic roles for r squared measuring explanatory power is not one of them harold kincaid although in a somewhat different context jon elster makes basically the same observation as kincaid consider two elections a and b for each of them identify the events that cause a given percentage of voters to turn out once we have thus explained the turnout in election a and the turnout in election b the explanation of the difference if any follows automatically as a by product as a bonus we might be able to explain whether identical turnouts in a and b are accidental that is due to differences that exactly offset each other or not in practice this procedure might be too demanding the data or he available theories might not allow us to explain the phenomena in and of themselves we should be aware however that if we do resort to explanation of variation we are engaging in a second best explanatory practice modern econometrics is fundamentally based on assuming usually without any explicit justification that we can gain causal knowledge by considering independent variables that may have an impact on the variation of a dependent variable as argued by both kincaid and elster this is however far from self evident often the fundamental causes are constant forces that are not amenable to the kind of analysis econometrics supplies us with as stanley lieberson has it in making it count one can always say whether in a given empirical context a given variable or theory accounts for more variation than another but it is almost certain that the variation observed is not universal over time and place hence the use of such a criterion first requires a conclusion about the variation over time and place in the dependent variable if such an analysis is not forthcoming the theoretical conclusion is undermined by the absence of information moreover it is questionable whether one can draw much of a conclusion about causal forces from simple analysis of the observed variation to wit it is vital that one have an understanding or at least a working hypothesis about what is causing the event per se variation in the magnitude of the event will not provide the answer to that question trygve haavelmo was making a somewhat similar point back in 1941 when criticizing the treatment of the interest variable in tinbergen s regression analyses the regression coefficient of the interest rate variable being zero was according to haavelmo not sufficient for inferring that variations in the rate of interest play only a minor role or no role at all in the changes in investment activity interest rates may very well play a decisive indirect role by influencing other causally effective variables and the rate of interest may not have varied much during the statistical testing period and for this reason the rate of interest would not explain very much of the variation in net profit and thereby the variation in investment which has actually taken place during this period but one cannot conclude that the rate of influence would be inefficient as an autonomous regulator which is after all the important point this problem of nonexcitation when there is too little variation in a variable to say anything about its potential importance and we can t identify the reason for the factual influence of the variable being negligible strongly confirms that causality in economics and other social sciences can never solely be a question of statistical inference causality entails more than predictability and to really in depth explain social phenomena requires theory analysis of variation the foundation of all econometrics can never in itself reveal how these variations are brought about first when we are able to tie actions processes or structures to the statistical relations detected can we say that we are getting at relevant explanations of causation too much in love with axiomatic deductive modelling neoclassical economists especially tend to forget that accounting for causation how causes bring about their effects demands deep subject matter knowledge and acquaintance with the intricate fabrics and contexts as keynes already argued in his a treatise on probability statistics and econometrics should primarily be seen as means to describe patterns of associations and correlations means that we may use as suggestions of possible causal relations forgetting that economists will continue to be stuck with a second best explanatory practice share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky next page recent posts arbetslöshetsiffran 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