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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during November 2011;
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unds that accumulate in boom years are used to deal with temporary revenue shortfalls the states general obligation borrowing is limited to capital projects like roads and schools none of these features of the us economy would develop in europe even if the eurozone evolved into a more explicitly political union the most likely effect of strengthening political union in the eurozone would be to give germany the power to control the other members budgets and prescribe changes in their taxes and spending this formal transfer of sovereignty would only increase the tensions and conflicts that already exist between germany and other eu countries share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky greg mankiw and richard epstein libertarian mumbo jumbo on inequality 29 nov 2011 at 21 11 posted in economics politics society 2 comments as yours truly has commented on earlier walked out harvard economist and george bush advisor greg mankiw is having problems with explaining the rising inequality we have seen for the last 30 years in both the us and elsewhere in western societies that says it he writes even if the income gains are in the top 1 percent why does that imply that the right story is not about education i then realized that paul is making an implicit assumption that the return to education is deterministic if indeed a year of schooling guaranteed you precisely a 10 percent increase in earnings then there is no way increasing education by a few years could move you from the middle class to the top 1 percent but it may be better to think of the return to education as stochastic education not only increases the average income a person will earn but it also changes the entire distribution of possible life outcomes it does not guarantee that a person will end up in the top 1 percent but it increases the likelihood i have not seen any data on this but i am willing to bet that the top 1 percent are more educated than the average american while their education did not ensure their economic success it played a role this is of course nothing but really one big evasive action trying to explain away a very disturbing structural shift that has taken place in our societies and change that has very little to do with stochastic returns to education those were in place also 30 or 40 years ago at that time they meant that perhaps a ceo earned 10 12 times what ordinary people earns today it means that they perhaps earn 100 200 times what ordinary people earns a question of education no way it is a question of greed and a lost sense of a common project of building a sustainable society a result of stochastic returns to education no this has to do with income and wealth increasingly being concentrated in the hands of a very small and privileged elite mankiw has stubbornly refused to nudge on his libertarian stance on this issue so rather consistently this week he links on his blog to a pbs interview with libertarian professor of law richard epstein richard epstein what s good about inequality is if in fact it turns out that inequality creates an incentive for people to produce and to create wealth it s a wonderful force for innovation paul solman aren t many of the top 1 percent or 0 1 percent in this country rich because they re in finance richard epstein yes many of the very richest people in the united states are rich because they are in finance and one of the things you have to ask is why is anyone prepared to pay them huge sums of money if in fact they perform nothing of social value and the answer is that when you try to knock out the financiers what you do is you destroy the liquidity of capital markets and when you destroy the liquidity of those markets you make it impossible for businesses to invest you make it impossible for people to buy home mortgages and so forth and all sorts of other breakdowns so they should be rich it doesn t bother me paul solman are you worried that a small number of people controlling a disproportionate share of the wealth can control a democratic system richard epstein oh my god no mankiw does not in any way comment on epstein s amazing stupidities or gives us a hint of why he has chosen to link to the interview but sometimes silence perhaps says more than a thousand words share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky en tidsinställd bomb 29 nov 2011 at 16 54 posted in economics comments off on en tidsinställd bomb der spiegel ger oss den här bilden och glöm inte att man kan klicka på bilden för att göra den större av storleken på statslån som förfaller till betalning i några euroländer share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky go canada go 28 nov 2011 at 19 05 posted in varia comments off on go canada go share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky bleak prospects for the future 28 nov 2011 at 18 29 posted in economics comments off on bleak prospects for the future the prospects for the future do indeed look bleak according to the oecd decisive policies must be urgently put in place to stop the euro area sovereign debt crisis from spreading and to put weakening global activity back on track says the oecd s latest economic outlook the euro area crisis remains the key risk to the world economy the outlook says concerns about sovereign debt sustainability are becoming increasingly widespread if not addressed recent contagion to countries thought to have relatively solid public finances could massively escalate economic disruption pressures on bank funding and balance sheets increase the risk of a credit crunch another serious downside risk is that no action would be agreed to offset the large degree of fiscal tightening implied by current law in the united states this could tip the economy into a recession that monetary policy could do little to counter better late than never or as paul krugman has it that s all perfectly sensible but how did we get here in large part by listening to people like the oecd which demanded both fiscal austerity and interest rate hikes back in early 2010 and yes it was the same people now running scared of the consequences of those spending cuts and rate hikes share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky vinst hör inte hemma i skattefinansierad skola och vård 28 nov 2011 at 15 01 posted in economics politics society 2 comments lena sommestad skriver åter klokt om vinstdrivande bolag i skattefinansierad offentlig verksamhet idag står vi där vi står med en borgerlig regering som under fem års tid har släppt vinstintressena fullständigt fria i offentlig sektor vem anser idag att vinstmaximering i offentlig sektor inte kan skapa problem borgerlighetens valseger blev jackpot för välfärdens entreprenörer mest märkligt är dock att socialdemokraterna i opposition inte skärpte analysen av välfärdsföretagen istället blev det tvärtom i valrörelsen 2010 drev socialdemokraterna inte någon tydlig linje för non profit i välfärdssektorn istället hade partiet faktiskt anammat samma paroll som friskolornas riksförbund använde år 2006 i kritiken mot ibrahim baylan fokusera på skolans kvalitet istället för vinst en strålande framgång för välfärdens vinstdrivande entreprenörer deras pr firmor och fristående s märkta lobbyister borde inte lena sommestad vara ett namn att ha i åtanke när håkan juholt svajat färdigt tillägg att forskare sedan länge varnat för problemen med vinstdriven skattefinansierad skola och vård kan du försäkra dig om t ex här och här share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky statsobligationsräntan redux 28 nov 2011 at 00 18 posted in economics politics society 2 comments hmm vilket land var det nu som är med i eurosamarbetet share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky oj så fel det kan bli trots alla dessa rigorösa och precisa modeller 27 nov 2011 at 13 45 posted in economics comments off on oj så fel det kan bli trots alla dessa rigorösa och precisa modeller neoklassiska nationalekonomer brukar ofta i linje med milton friedmans metodologiska instrumentalism säga att det inte har någon betydelse hur realistiska de antaganden modellerna man laborerar med är huvudsaken är att prediktionerna blir riktiga om det nu är så kan vi bara dra en enda slutsats kasta skiten på soptippen för oj vad fel de har haft simon potter har analyserat de prediktioner federal reserve bank of new york gjort över utvecklingen av real bnp och arbetslöshet under åren 2007 2010 det visar sig att prediktionerna slog fel med respektive 5 9 och 4 4 vilket motsvarar 6 miljoner arbetslösa economic forecasters never expect to predict precisely one way of measuring the accuracy of their forecasts is against previous forecast errors when judged by forecast error performance metrics from the macroeconomic quiescent period that many economists have labeled the great moderation the new york fed research staff forecasts as well as most private sector forecasts for real activity before the great recession look unusually far off the mark one source for such metrics is a paper by reifschneider and tulip 2007 they analyzed the forecast error performance of a range of public and private forecasters over 1986 to 2006 that is roughly the period that most economists associate with the great moderation in the united states on the basis of their analysis one could have expected that an october 2007 forecast of real gdp growth for 2008 would be within 1 3 percentage points of the actual outcome 70 percent of the time the new york fed staff forecast at that time was for growth of 2 6 percent in 2008 based on the forecast of 2 6 percent and the size of forecast errors over the great moderation period one would have expected that 70 percent of the time actual growth would be within the 1 3 to 3 9 percent range the current estimate of actual growth in 2008 is 3 3 percent indicating that our forecast was off by 5 9 percentage points using a similar approach to reifschneider and tulip but including forecast errors for 2007 one would have expected that 70 percent of the time the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of 2009 should have been within 0 7 percentage point of a forecast made in april 2008 the actual forecast error was 4 4 percentage points equivalent to an unexpected increase of over 6 million in the number of unemployed workers under the erroneous assumption that the 70 percent projection error band was based on a normal distribution this would have been a 6 standard deviation error a very unlikely occurrence indeed med andra ord dessa tvärsäkra mainstream ekonomer med sina rigorösa precisa och matematiska modeller hade fel och vi andra får betala för det share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky new keynesianism what a gross misnomer 27 nov 2011 at 13 08 posted in economics theory of science methodology comments off on new keynesianism what a gross misnomer back in 1994 laurence ball and greg mankiw argued that although traditionalists are often called new keynesians this label is a misnomer they could just as easily be called new monetarists that is still true today new keynesianism is a gross misnomer the macroeconomics of people like greg mankiw has a lot to do with milton friedman robert lucas and thomas sargent and very little or next to nothing to do with the founder of macroeconomics john maynard keynes in a more recent paper on modern macroeconomics greg mankiw writes the real world of macroeconomic policymaking can be disheartening for those of us who have spent most of our careers in academia the sad truth is that the macroeconomic research of the past three decades has had only minor impact on the practical analysis of monetary or fiscal policy the explanation is not that economists in the policy arena are ignorant of recent developments quite the contrary the staff of the federal reserve includes some of the best young ph d s and the council of economic advisers under both democratic and republican administrations draws talent from the nation s top research universities the fact that modern macroeconomic research is not widely used in practical policymaking is prima facie evidence that it is of little use for this purpose the research may have been successful as a matter of science but it has not contributed significantly to macroeconomic engineering so then what is the raison d être of macroeconomics if it has nothing to say about the real world and the economic problems out there the final court of appeal for macroeconomic models is the real world and as long as no convincing justification is put forward for how the inferential bridging de facto is made macroeconomic modelbuilding is little more than hand waving that give us rather little warrant for making inductive inferences from models to real world target systems if substantive questions about the real world are being posed it is the formalistic mathematical representations utilized to analyze them that have to match reality not the other way around as keynes has it economics is a science of thinking in terms of models joined to the art of choosing models which are relevant to the contemporary world it is compelled to be this because unlike the natural science the material to which it is applied is in too many respects not homogeneous through time if macoeconomic models no matter of what ilk assume representative actors rational expectations market clearing and equilibrium and we know that real people and markets cannot be expected to obey these assumptions the warrants for supposing that conclusions or hypothesis of causally relevant mechanisms or regularities can be bridged are obviously non justifiable macroeconomic theorists regardless of being new monetarist new classical or new keynesian ought to do some ontological reflection and heed keynes warnings on using thought models in economics the object of our analysis is not to provide a machine or method of blind manipulation which will furnish an infallible answer but to provide ourselves with an organized and orderly method of thinking out particular problems and after we have reached a provisional conclusion by isolating the complicating factors one by one we then have to go back on ourselves and allow as well as we can for the probable interactions of the factors amongst themselves this is the nature of economic thinking any other way of applying our formal principles of thought without which however we shall be lost in the wood will lead us into error sha...
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