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an imagine what that is cost push this is what fascinates me most about the article because we need to look more at cost push and output below potential i get that i get all of that it s the aggregate supply curve that stopped me cold what are the axes if the curve is perceived as horizontal then i need to know what s on the vertical axis supply is a curve that slopes one way demand slopes the other where they cross is the perfect price or something i get all that but i didn t memorize the supply curve axis labels i have to stop and work that out it rolled around in the back of my head a few days then suddenly made sense nunes says it was thought that prices would not go up due to increased demand if supply was below potential in other words sas is horizontal no change in prices when demand increases if supply is below potential or so it was thought in the 1970s so price is the vertical axis and supply is the horizontal google brings up some images these all show price on the vertical axis got it wikipedia out of context at low levels of demand there are large numbers of production processes that do not use their fixed capital equipment fully thus production can be increased without much in the way of diminishing returns and the average price level need not rise much if at all to justify increased production the as curve is flat as wikipedia has it at low levels of demand the as curve is flat as nunes has it when output is below potential the as curve is horizontal as i have it if supply is below potential increasing demand won t raise prices so it was thought in the 70s now i guess we know better prices go up all the time regardless of the output gap regardless of demand that s why cost push fascinates me now i have a question according to nunes and the world prices do go up when demand increases even when supply is below potential inflation is due to aggregate demand the world says but even when demand is below potential before the crisis in the bush years the economy was really slow prices went up anyway that was a demand problem once upon a time prices went up and down as the red line shows now prices only go up the red line almost never goes below zero and by one measure at least economic growth since the 1970s has been substantially below the average of the past 200 years growth was better back when prices went up and down these days growth is less and prices only go up now aggregate demand ad is relatively low demand is not sufficient to pull prices up but now for decades before the crisis i mean prices only go up doesn t this support a view that nunes and the world reject the view that inflation was cost push in the 1970s and maybe that inflation has been cost push for quite some time prices don t go up and down prices only go up prices are going up even while demand is relatively low doesn t that sound like there must be something other than demand that is pushing prices up doesn t it sound like cost push don t we want to think about that sure you can suppress the quantity of money and thereby keep demand and inflation and growth at a low level but that does not mean it was demand pull inflation if there are cost push forces at work suppressing demand will not solve the problem it will reduce or moderate economic growth it will reduce or moderate inflation but cost push forces will continue to eat away at profits and living standards so the question that must be asked is whether in our experience inflation is cost push or demand pull the question is easily answered because the two inflations are related to two different economic conditions under demand pull incomes are plump and the economy is good under cost push incomes are lean and the economy is not good don t we want to think about that posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 7 comments saturday may 26 2012 spring fever she rests upon my coffee table face up atop discover the model hollie witchey posted by the arthurian at 12 00 pm 0 comments labels tot explaining stagflation the name nairu arises because with actual unemployment below it inflation accelerates while with unemployment above it inflation decelerates with the actual rate equal to it inflation is stable neither accelerating nor decelerating one practical use of this model was to provide an explanation for stagflation which confounded the traditional phillips curve phillips curve wikipedia the phillips curve said there was a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment one went down when the other went up but then in the 1970s unemployment and inflation both went up the phillips curve was confounded and a new explanation was needed that s when keynesian economics fell into disrepute and economists invented new explanations like the nairu after 30 years of building upon such explanations the economy tanked to explain the problems in our economy you cannot go back to the subprime crisis or to the 1990s or the 1980s when policy fixes were being put into place to explain the problems you have to go back to when those problems first arose back to the great inflation beginning in the mid 1960s you have to go back to what the problems and policies were then posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments friday may 25 2012 mom and who from my rajan post regulation is ineffective the profit motive is an irresistible force regulation is not an immovable object the trick is to use taxation to make different things profitable use it to make some things more profitable and other things less profitable for example the existing business income tax favors bigness so if things go their way a business can grow like crazy that s how you get giants like microsoft and google and the too big to fail banks and then we have anti trust because sometimes we seem to think some companies are too big but it would be much more effective just to change the tax system we could redesign the business tax to favor small business instead for example but it would be better to make the tax so it favors no one by size let walmart compete on equal footing with mom and pop posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 5 comments thursday may 24 2012 jobs you think jobs is the problem okay but it s our problem a problem for people it s not a problem for the economy if you want jobs from the economy you have to give the economy what it wants of course everybody thinks they know what the economy wants to cut the growth of government spending that s not it and now to ruin a perfectly good brief statement let me explicitly point out that i am not saying we must expand the growth of government spending i am not saying we should cut it and i am not saying we should expand it what i m saying is the size of government is not the problem the spending of government is not the problem the debt of government is not the problem the government is not the problem i m saying we should stop talking about the government and focus on the problem excessive private debt is the problem we need to wipe out that debt private debt before life as we know it ends like a game of monopoly posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 8 comments wednesday may 23 2012 holy crap for your shuddering pleasure glimpses into the logic and literacy of gina aveni at conservative daily news john maynard keynes is the author of keynesian economics who was both an investor and economist of his time keynesian economics stemmed from ideas that have taken a toll on the american economy keynes was opposed to say s law which states that supply creates demand keynes believed the opposite output determined demand posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments tuesday may 22 2012 gunnar tomasson from gang8 i have long been persuaded that we will ultimately run into a stonewall with our debt dilemma and how to handle it the solution so far has been to let the less well placed individuals of society bear the burden this is the austerity programs that are imposed and it is getting us nowhere we are cutting down the economies through austerity programs we are cutting down the welfare system we are cutting down health and education and so on this reduces and cuts out purchasing power from the economy and the purchasing power is what keeps the wheels of industry going and this we have seen it playing out in europe now where they have taken steps one after another and they basically have not identified the problem and if you have not identified the problem and you cannot do that with modern monetary economics when you cannot identify your problem you cannot design a solution for it you must know what your are talking about and they don t you have a system overburdened with debt and the solution cannot be to add more debt to it posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 4 comments monday may 21 2012 liquidity trap found this by accident source introductory microeconomics and macroeconomics by tr jain vk ohri i can duplicate that graph dunno about the interest rates though posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments sunday may 20 2012 i want all of it from the role of monetary policy 17 page pdf by milton friedman accordingly the authority increases the rate of monetary growth this will be expansionary by making nominal cash balances higher than people desire it will tend initially to lower interest rates and in this and other ways to stimulate spending cash balances higher than people desire is that the problem really we have too much money and we don t like that so we spend the money just to get rid of it really i don t see it posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 6 comments saturday may 19 2012 interesting marcus nunes alternative view of fed policy since the 1960s the main difference between the two doctrines is not the change in the fed s responsiveness to inflation as argued by taylor bernanke or farmer but the changed responsiveness to aggregate demand or nominal income growth strong argument i think posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments wednesday may 16 2012 a fred browser after you edit a fred graph in a row of text above the graph are some options including link to the graph no matter how complex your graph the url is always short and the filename part is never in my experience more than three characters that three character simplicity amazed me i wrote to the fred webmaster about it and mr essig offered this brief explanation the short links are generated from a sequence with a base of 62 characters i e a z a z 0 9 instead of the normal 10 numeric characters i e 0 9 well after that it was obvious the three digit sequence is just a number in other words when you create one of those links to a fred graph fred gives the thing a number and saves the info needed to create that same graph again later the three character sequence is just a number so why can t i pick a number at random and look at that fred graph well i can t because i don t have the ability to write the code to make it happen but my son jerry can i described the idea to him and before i knew it he was back to me with a link to try and this email i m not totally sure what you had in mind in terms of integrating it with your site but here you go this is two html pages one has the two frames on it the other is the nav bar which goes inside the top frame it sets the page in the bottom frame to be some fred graph all of the logic is in javascript no php or anything but it s a little confusing because of all of the frames and the javascript we can talk more about it anyway here it is well i spent a few days with it off and on trying to put something in the sidebar that would access the fred graph navbar combo then i went back to jerry okay i give up i can t even keep up with the posting what i have in mind is this the user clicks a button or something in my sidebar to activate your fred browser but the first call from this button is to a graph at random then with your prev next options the user can look at that random area i thought people might find this worth trying more than once jerry got back to me just a few hours later with a new link that picks one of those base 62 numbers at random and opens up that fred graph all that was left for me to do was stick the thing in the sidebar and write this post not bad i really like the idea of accessing that base 62 list of graphs that fred users have created it offers a peek at what other people have been working on and it gives me a look at data series and data relationships i ve not seen before so i want to thank my son for developing the fred browser you can find the link on my sidebar under the title random eyes just click the text below that title to open up the navbar and a fred graph at random oh by the way i want to repeat something jerry said the other day one thing i wonder about i don t know if it s a serious concern or not maybe a more prominent attribution to fred in the top bar might be appropriate i could change the fred to st louis fed or something yeah thanks jerry and thank you fred enjoy posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 9 comments tuesday may 15 2012 there is a difference i think i heard on the news the other day that obama wants to save people as much as 3000 per year by refinancing their debt the thing of it is refinancing postpones the payments but does not reduce the debt that s why it is ineffective policy from naturalnews com iceland forgives mortgage debt to save its economy by j d heyes it s probably not a concept that most u s banks and lawmakers want to think about but the fact is iceland s economy has grown by leaps and bounds since the government there implemented widespread debt forgiveness for many of its citizens there is a difference between refinance and forgiveness posted by the arthurian at 8 52 pm 13 comments real and nominal debt your turn in the may 9th post i introduced two different calculations for inflation adjustment of number series that are stocks rather than flows i worked out the art2 calc with an example on the 14th but i had some problem with the art1 calc the art2 uses a base year just as the usual inflation adjustment does i used the final year as the base year but i could have picked any year the art1 is different it has a floating or flying base each year s number is properly adjusted for that year the current addition to debt remains in current dollars but the prior years debt is adjusted and expressed in those same current dollars i don t mean to beat a dead horse but the difference between the two calculations is significant to create the inflation adjusted numbers behind graph 4 in yesterday s post i used the art2 adjustment on the numerator and the surreal adjustment on the denominator i think i could create the same numbers using the art1 adjustment on the numerator and no inflation adjustment on the denominator i have not done it and i could be wrong but i m pretty sure that s how it works if anybody wants to give it a try see also diy econ debtors and inflation by ohm at bread and butter ohm looks at the big misconception out there that the...
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