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mind some kind of model it may be an entirely subconscious model or a model spelled out in theory but never quantified or tested or an explicit quantified model that has been subjected to careful testing and scrutiny i need hardly add in which sort i have the greater confidence clopper almon posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments friday november 21 2014 columns in a spreadsheet go up and down like columns in a building rows go across following up on the post of 18 november when i picture an economic model i picture doing it in a spreadsheet i need a column for year one for gdp one for debt one for addition to debt and stuff like that whatever it turns out that the calculation seems to need and then make a row for each year of the model s life i plug in a few numbers on the top row then fill the rest of the first couple rows with calculations and that s it i copy my last completed row down to the rows below for each year of the model s life 50 years maybe the trick is to plug in the right calculations those calcs want to mimic the actual relations between gdp and debt and additions to debt and stuff or what i imagine those relations to be you know if we spend a little less we save a little more this year but our reduced spending could affect gdp next year those kinds of relations when the bug bites i ll set up a spreadsheet like that and mess with it for a while changing calculations adding columns for new quantities and looking at graphs of the resulting data i never manage to get graphs that mimic graphs of economic data so i play with it for a while then set it aside after i wrote the notes above i went and read the first few pages of clopper almon s the craft of economic modeling actually clopper says the first section of chapter 1 does not require the use of computers i printed out those six pages so i could hold them in my hand looking at the equations like c 6 y 1 35 y 2 and q c i g x m where c is consumption and q is output it occurred to me that each of the equations in the model could fit to a column of my spreadsheet you copy the equation down the cells of the column to get each year s number oh you leave out the q to the left of the equal sign and you put the equation in the column that you have labeled q do you know how long it took me to figure that out so each of the equations in a model can be a column in a spreadsheet understanding this helps me understand economic models what i ve been doing for all these years is making a column for each variable i want to calculate and then fudging the equations without ever really getting to look at the equations i would start out with something that made sense to me and keep filling in blanks until i had two or three rows worked out then copy the last row down to represent 50 years or so and then graph it then i d look at the graph decide it didn t look right and start tweaking my equations first it would be adding columns to get more variables and then working those variables into calculations and copying them to the rows below then it was things that made less sense but might have some bearing after a while it would be acts of desperation just trying to come up with numbers that would produce a graph i could live with and then i d put the thing aside for a while i think it s probably better to pull out the equations so you can look at them like clopper does like i always see when somebody is describing a model but at least now i know if there s two equations i need two columns in a spreadsheet for variables if there s six i need six no no i m not going to work only in spreadsheets i want to download the free g7 software and learn how to use it but i have to get there at my own pace and i have to start with what i know spreadsheets it is then posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments tuesday november 18 2014 how to understand an economic model so i finally googled how to understand an economic model something i really need to understand it was the article of the week at reddit that drove me to it i didn t read the linked article just the comments on it at reddit integralds lays out an overview of growth theory of the development of growth theory what standerby calls a timeline of thought it s easy reading just a summary of developments but it s impressive i didn t even click on any of the links it wouldnt do me any good every time they start laying out a model my brain becomes impenetrable said to myself i need to know how to understand an economic model next thing i knew it was googled the fourth item in the google results and the first one i hadn t been to before was the craft of economic modeling part 1 pdf 149 pages by clopper almon here s two bits of it from the intro simply put an economic model is a set of equations which describe how the economy or some part of it functions in my view a model should incorporate and test our understanding of how the economy works its equations should make sense and it should be possible to test how adequate our understanding is by running it over the past and seeing how well it can reproduce history by changing some of its assumptions and rerunning history with the changed assumptions it is possible to analyze the effects of policies finally it should be useful not only for policy analysis but also for forecasting by studying the errors of the forecast the builder of the model may hope to improve his or her understanding of the economy some of the equations in our models have constants which describe the behavior of firms consumers or other economic agents these constants often called parameters must somehow be estimated the most frequently used way is by choosing them so that the equation describes accurately the behavior of those agents in the past thus estimating the parameters is just a way to sum up the lessons of the past to forecast the future or examine how the past itself might have been different had different decisions been made a large part of this book is about how to do that yeah i have to read this i know 149 pages usually if the page count is more than a single digit i start to worry but i have to read this oh yeah one more thing the computer software the g regression package version 7 3 referred to as g7 and the build model builder are comprehensive easy to use programs that run under windows xp and windows 7 or 8 they are designed for work with time series data public domain versions accompany the book or are available via internet www inforum umd edu where thousands of economic time series are also available as data banks for g7 assembling equations into a model requires the use of the borland c compiler which is also available for free download oh my posted by the arthurian at 5 20 am 0 comments monday november 17 2014 an extremely persistent slowdown in long run growth rates since the 1970s gavyn davies from his blog at ft note davies two here links didn t work for me so i disabled them update 13 december 2014 apparently davies links did work i just now found several copies of two pdf files in my downloads folder oh well three of my colleagues at fulcrum have been examining the behaviour of long run gdp growth in the advanced economies using developments of dynamic factor models to produce real time estimates of long run gdp growth rates see the summary paper here by juan antolin diaz thomas drechsel and ivan petrella and the more academic version here the results graph 1 show an extremely persistent slowdown in long run growth rates since the 1970s not a sudden decline after 2008 this looks more persistent for the g7 as a whole than it does for individual countries where there is more variation in the pattern through time averaged across the g7 the slowdown can be traced to trend declines in both population growth and especially labour productivity growth which together have resulted in a halving in long run gdp growth from over 4 per cent in 1970 to 2 per cent now impressive graph edit crossing things out i remember probably 30 years ago reading a review of a book by glyn n and gavyn davies it was at the time the name of the book reminded me of sidney homer s a history of interest rates i think the title was a history of money glynn was gavyn s father this is all from memory i could have it all wrong there ya go the title a history of money from ancient times to the present day author glyn davies only one n maybe gavyn wrote the review i definitely remember both names first published in 1994 according to amazon i was way off on the date price of the hardcover book new at amazon from 2000 oh maybe that s why i didn t buy the book anyway that graph is huge posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 5 comments sunday november 16 2014 rooting for inflation from vox the nairu explained why economists don t want unemployment to drop too low by matthew yglesias a middle ground would be to argue that perhaps the nairu did correctly characterize the economy of the 1970s back then after all a large share of the american workforce was represented by labor unions union contracts often included clauses that provided for automatic raises in the case of inflation it s easy to see why any particular person would love to have such a clause in his contract but it s also easy to see how widespread use of such clauses could inadvertently set off a spiral whether or not this was the case three or four decades ago it s not a major issue in the american economy today when many fewer workers have such contracts that s the whole paragraph here s the piece of it that s relevant for today s post it s not a major issue in the american economy today when many fewer workers have such contracts if you re thinking a little more inflation would help reduce our debt you might want to think about whether your paycheck would be seeing that inflation debt doesn t inflate when wages inflate so inflation can be helpful though i do not favor that solution but if prices inflate and wages do not increasing inflation will leave us in worse shape than we re in now posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments saturday november 15 2014 the role of the state in economic growth from the abstract of the role of the state in economic growth pdf 59 pages by erik s reinert this paper attempts to trace and describe the role played by the government sector the state in promoting economic growth in western societies since the renaissance one important conclusion is that the antagonism between state and market which has characterised the twentieth century is a relatively new phenomenon since the renaissance one very important task of the state has been to create well functioning markets by providing a legal framework standards credit physical infrastructure and if necessary to function temporarily as an entrepreneur of last resort posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments friday november 14 2014 real adjusted total bullshit some time around 1994 apparently they changed the definition of m1 money before 1994 the definition of m1sl money included sweeps after 1994 it didn t so now if you want to look at the same money measure before and after 1994 you have to look at what s called m1 adjusted for retail sweeps or m1adj but this nomenclature is wrong it s backwards they changed the definition of m1 money m1sl that was the change so when you look at m1sl what you see after 1994 is not the same measure as before 1994 when they made the change they should have made a new series to show the new numbers this new series is the one that should have been called adjusted for retail sweeps i should be able to look at the old m1 money series m1sl and not see numbers that change suddenly and dramatically because of the adjustment graph 1 m1sl blue and m1adj red the data series title m1 adjusted for retail sweeps implies that the change occurs in the m1adj data series when really the change occurs in m1sl the data series whose title makes no mention of the adjustment this is exactly the same kind of deceptive language you get when economists take gdp a measure of the stuff we actually bought at prices we actually paid for it when they take gdp and take the inflation out of it and call the result real gdp total bullshit posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments thursday november 13 2014 u s public and private debt relative to gdp 1916 1970 graph 1 and the more recent picture graph 2 work with me here graph 1 shows private debt red at a high level in the 1920s and rising public debt was low by comparison but drawn upward by troubles world war one and the great depression and world war two from around 1933 private debt started falling finally during world war two falling below the level of public debt after the time of troubles public debt blue started falling private debt red started rising and our economy had a golden age graph 2 shows that after the golden age public debt blue fell a little more then leveled off and finally started rising rising since about 1980 after the golden age private debt red continued to rise then continued to rise and finally rose until the sudden crisis that occurred just before 2010 the late peak just before 2010 i want to compare it to the 1930s peak during the great depression i want to compare the two situations the two sets of circumstances before the time of the first peak private debt was high but then it fell severely public debt grew in response to the troubles and finally public debt rose above the level of private debt soon thereafter the troubles disappeared before the time of the second peak private debt was high and it continued to rise without letup public debt grew in response to troubles that arose but private debt continued to grow faster than public debt therefore there was no end of troubles after 1974 there was no end of troubles after 1987 and there is no end of troubles today what s different about the two peaks what s different is the growth of private debt during the great depression private debt collapsed but since that time since the end of the second world war there has been no collapse of private debt no collapse until the crisis private debt only grew higher and if you think of it in simple terms you can see that the end of troubles for some reason requires public debt to rise above the level of private debt just as it did in the 1940s well that was easy to do in the 1940s for private debt was falling since probably 1966 we have needed public debt to again rise above the level of private debt but this has been impossible to achieve because private debt has been rising faster than public debt the people who say we need more federal spending are right except for one thing federal spending has been more since 1980 and it has not solved the problem it has not solved the problem because private debt is not falling private debt is growing faster than public debt that is what has to change you with me posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 3 comments wednesday november 12 2014 this was a direct challenge to...
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