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description= 10 posts published by moctavio during September 2009;
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chavez, the, to, by, blog, blogs, new, 101, or, and, one, economic, plan, you, devil, excrement, archive, for, september, 2009, unknown, feed, subscribe, via, email, categories, all, miguel, octavio, blogroll, venezuelans, recent, posts, archives, pages, meta, stats, bonds, part, ii, looking, good, did, government, blink, releasing, julio, rivas, we, have, bond, two, issue, defends, praises, mugabe, it, takes, know, hugo, socialist, fascination, fixation, with, banks, an, random, decision, making, night, escape, from, realities, of, our, poor, country, show, off, style, hurts, venezuela, both, ways, venezuelan, oil, exports, usa, say, want, revolution, non,
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the (446), that (143), and (142), not (62), #chavez (58), this (57), have (57), for (56), will (56), but (55), was (49), you (48), #venezuela (46), has (42), would (35), are (35), government (34), bonds (32), may (31), there (31), with (29), 2009 (28), which (28), september (27), all (26), even (25), more (24), been (24), billion (23), some (22), from (21), 000 (21), oil (20), they (20), than (20), get (20), bank (19), them (19), market (19), can (19), one (18), only (18), these (17), people (17), had (17), were (17), his (16), october (16), march (16), hugo (16), swap (16), august (15), november (15), january (15), february (15), april (15), plan (15), like (15), thus (15), december (14), june (14), july (14), money (14), bond (14), when (14), because (14), banco (14), price (14), comments (13), 2003 (13), 2004 (13), 2008 (13), time (13), venezuelan (13), around (13), today (13), then (13), years (13), yield (13), 2005 (12), 2006 (12), 2007 (12), 2010 (12), 2011 (12), 2012 (12), 2013 (12), 2014 (12), 2015 (12), end (12), part (12), what (12), could (12), well (12), those (12), banks (12), about (11), give (11), country (11), pdvsa (11), too (11), last (11), posted (10), does (10), just (10), world (10), true (10), few (10), its (10), did (10), good (10), much (10), dollars (10), rivas (10), other (9), another (9), 2016 (9), something (9), new (9), decision (9), week (9), buy (9), 100 (9), now (8), del (8), him (8), year (8), make (8), economic (8), think (8), next (8), most (8), issues (8), such (8), after (8), want (8), day (8), idea (8), where (8), made (8), devil (7), high (7), your (7), down (7), seems (7), out (7), political (7), any (7), while (7), rate (7), given (7), both (7), sell (7), higher (7), anything (7), keep (7), said (7), off (7), announcements (7), project (7), announced (7), debt (7), means (7), sold (7), everyone (7), pay (7), first (7), making (7), two (7), put (7), order (7), jail (7), excrement (6), 2002 (6), why (6), change (6), back (6), 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problem (4), 200 (4), markets (4), guess (4), according (4), simply (4), lower (4), rather (4), makes (4), projects (4), belt (4), great (4), within (4), since (4), each (4), lots (4), produce (4), barrels (4), came (4), gas (4), used (4), through (4), way (4), jailed (4), malaria (4), over (4), america (4), ago (4), truck (4), allow (4), our (4), poor (4), look (4), clearly (4), merentes (4), rodriguez (4), margarita (4), here (4), fascination (4), loans (4), summit (4), drop (4), created (4), curve (4), orders (4), bolivars (4), range (4), strike (4), movement (4), julio (4), view (3), log (3), wordpress (3), doesn (3), course (3), excremento (3), diablo (3), caracas (3), miguel (3), orchids (3), receive (3), positive (3), watch (3), unfortunately (3), aimed (3), trying (3), cabinet (3), important (3), months (3), nothing (3), stay (3), lowered (3), international (3), either (3), let (3), modules (3), ones (3), become (3), vice (3), own (3), late (3), exports (3), published (3), 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Text of the page (random words):
ryone knew that issuing debt was part of the plan part of that was known when this week the official gazette published the approval for the issuing of us 5 7 billion in local currency debt this was all that the national assembly had approved thus either the assembly had to rush to approve more or there would not be any dollar denominated debt issued which is what everyone was expecting in fact market players were saying that the announcement woudl be made monday or tuesday then last night soemwhat late minister of finance was quoted at the agencia bolivariana de noticias can t find that link here is another one as saying there will be no sovereign debt issues the rest of the year there may be some buybacks and refinancing rodriguez even explained himself saying that recent local issues had an effect on the swap rate which has gone down 15 in the last two weeks fairly clear no not doing something which the government has done frequently is in itself a decision and part of a plan no except that today in margarita ali rodriguez the same one that last night felt the urge to say there would not be any sovereign issues the rest of the year said this time around the government will issue us 3 billion in sovereign bonds next week this is clearly a wtf moment in chavista economic policy making changing your mind within less than twenty four hours definitely makes it sounds as if there is no economic plan and what you have is some form of random decision making process and while the decisions may not be random they do have a random element because the decision making process is quite complex first of all none of those involved is an economist merentes is a mathematician rodriguez is a lawyer and giordani has a bachelors in engineering and a ph d in planning i understand in urban planning to top it all off the chief economist is hugo chavez he has the ultimate decision making power in the whole process and makes the ultimate decision but add to this that the various teams disagree on what should be done merentes is the great proponent of issuing dollar denominated debt he used it when he was at finance and thinks it s a great tool to lower the swap market giordani on the other hand and he seems to have rodriguez on his side is against these dollar issues sold for local currency he argues and he is right that these issues no longer have much of an impact on the swap market they do help in lowering it but the effect is only temporary furthermore argues giordani how these bonds are allocated is not transparent and moreover does not get the foreign currency to the hands of those that need it additionally giordani is reported to have proof of the corruption involved in some of the bs us issues of the last few years i believ giordani is correct in his assessment and interpreted last nights announcement as evidence that he had won the argument over merentes but something clearly happened today and likely merentes made some argument with chief economist chavez that changed his mind maybe the argument this is pure speculation was quite simple it was too late to change to no bond all of the important members of the financial bolibourgeois groups were positioned to take advantage of the bond canceling would not only give them huge losses but by forcing them to go to the swap market and cover their short positions they sold dollars they did not have ahead of the announcement of the bond the swap rate would go back up next week sharply and part of the work done by the government would be lost which is true but only because the privileged information that the bond would be released had been leaked to the friends of the robolution unfortunately every decision is made like that each group fights for its own point of view chavez has the final decision and in the end the policies of the plan are incoherent making the whole process look and act absolutely random on the venezuelan economy and our daily lives in the end the process is no different than throwing darts and or picking pieces of paper at random from the floor and it shows posted in venezuela 8 comments a night to escape from the realities of our poor country september 24 2009 so tonight as most people in venezuela watch either miss venezuela or larry king interviewing the dictator or both by switching channels i think about this uneventful day in venezuela when 1 the 12th victim of the chlorine spill died today so far only the truck driver has been jailed and i suspect nobody else will ever be jailed for this neither the pdvsa people who allowed the truck to be driven unsafely through venezuela nor the ones that did not secure the cylinders nor the traffic people that allow all drivers to go 30 40 above the speed limit nr the local authorities that allowed the highway to have potholes and deteriorate nor the government officials that allowed the hospitals to deteriorate we are all responsible said hugo he should be charged too to such an extent that the clarines hospital did not have the supplies to take care of those affected by the accident thus the driver becomes the chino de recadi the only man jailed in a chain of irresponsible of events where the driver was probably the weakest link to his credit he even tried to drive the truck away from clarines but the truck went into the drain 2 yesterday or the day before there was a shoot out in el valle in south western caracas a total of ten people were killed by the police el nacional page c 8 the mother of the person the police were looking for acknowledges that her son was not a saint but she says at least five of those killed were innocent some in the barrio say the cops routinely go in the barrio and kill kids at will other say the cops stole stuff from their home what kind of country have we become when the police can kill ten people like that and there is no outcry 3 the number of new malaria cases is already higher in 2009 than it was in 2008 there have been 22 183 cases so far in 2009 ten years ago there were 16 686 for the first time in twenty years there have been malaria cases detected in urban areas in 1999 there was a whole department in charge of containing malaria that department was shut down in 2001 its programs dismantled i really have no idea if they are back malaria used to be a priority dengue too the number of deaths from dengue is up 31 year over year and these are official numbers the real numbers from swine flu are anybody s guess the country has one of the lowest incidences per inhabitant in latin america according to official figures 4 the venezuelan federal medical association says that it is not 2 000 barrio adentro modules that are closed but 4 800 so much for the showcase of the chavez administration 5 in the proposed weapons law citizens may only buy up to 50 bullets a year i guess they want the estimated 6 million weapons to be limited to killing the whole population of venezuela 6 according to ong s provea and espacio publico both with impeccable credentials there have been 2 079 protests so far this year in venezuela of these 130 have been repressed by the authorities those repressed yielded six people killed 461 injured and 440 people jailed 70 of the protests are labor related but the pattern seems to be independent of the type of protest this is the venezuela that according to chavez will change the world this is the socialism that will be expanded everywhere this is the bizarre country that we are putting up with and living in so dance with miss venezuela and or watch hugo lie in cnn we have got to escape somehow truly bizarre posted in venezuela 29 comments the chavez show off style hurts venezuela both ways september 23 2009 everyone knows that hugo chavez likes to show off he loves a red carpet a bombastic claim an outrageous promise he makes announcements daily most of which stay just at that part of the daily fantasy of hugo chavez the egomaniac the fantasy man that lives off announcing anything he goes on foreign trips where he signs dozens of agreements most of which are shelved as soon as he leaves without any follow up the problem is that this works both ways he has announced the construction of seventeen or is it eighteen refineries that have never panned out but recently there have been four announcements that may have some truth to them but are handled in such shoddy and strident way that in the end one has no clue if they are true or not it used to be that any oil exploration and production project had to go through the national assembly even if chavez can get anything through the assembly faster than a speeding bullet he does not even care for such details the hugo chavez show must go on and there will not be any discussion of the details ahora pdvsa es de hugo chavez in russia for example chavez signed a deal by which russia would invest us 16 billion in the orinoco oil belt chavez signed an agreement on it and said that the pdvsa russia project would set up an upgrading plant that would produce 450 000 barrels of oil no time frame was given for completing it no details of the contract nothing if true the contract would have given a boost to venezuela s debt but why bother it s the show that counts from moscow chavez went to madrid he decided to go to a bookstore to buy some reading material to occupy his time when he is not talking by chavista chance he happened to run into the president of repsol at the bookstore and proceeded to have a conversation with him that sounds too good to be true with one well a miracle of spanish engineering repsol was able to estimate that the natural gas field it is exploring is 33 squared kilometers in size and one of the biggest natural gas fields in the world i am sure there is evidence that there is lots of gas but the fact that only one well has been drilled that little is known about the gas in it and that it was announced in such a non standard fashion means that the announcement has little credibility at this time exerts tell me that even if the whole enchilada was true it would not be until 2016 that this project would contribute to pdvsa s bottom line anyway chavez then came home to check on his economic non plan and announced that he had signed a project with the chinese to produce 450 000 more barrels of oil from the orinoco oil belt and that the chinese oil company would invest us 20 billion within three years to produce another 450 000 barrels of heavy crude from the orinoco but then it was not clear was this an agreement that was reached or did venezuela really sign something without anyone knowing the details because lots of question arise some are basic why does it cost the russians us 16 billions to produce 450 000 barrels of oil a day while it will cost the chinese us 20 billion just asking and there are others for example is this the total investment if so where is pdvsa going to find the money for its 60 stake in each project that is if the russian and chinese oil companies will participate in us 36 billion worth of partnerships then pdvsa will have to contribute 60 or us 21 6 billion how can a company that can not even pay its suppliers and contractors us 5 billion it owes them come up with that amount of money of course it may be that the russians and chinese are willing to lend pdvsa its share just so that they can learn about heavy oil upgrading and production neither of them have experience in this but since no details were given we just don t know once again if true this would be great news for venezuela just the idea of us 36 billion being spent in the country in the next three years would be an incredibly positive development but wait can you really build a 450 000 barrel a day heavy oil upgrader in the orinoco oil belt within three years well it doesn t seem very feasible the old cerro negro sincor petrozuata heavy oil projects took a minimum of five years to start production to get and they were smaller and developed by companies that had experience in heavy crude production and upgrading so once again if half of the whle thing was true it would be great but the lack of detail colors everyone skeptical on all this sounds like another lost opportunity and then just when people are starting to feel that this whole set of showy announcements by hugo chavez may be be a boost to venezuela for the next few years comes this extremely solid and positive announcement by eulogio del pino vice president for exploration and production of pdvsa that pdvsa and france s total plan to spend us 25 billion on another upgrader in the orinoco oil belt including technical details and all except that total rained on the pdvsa parade by issuing a press release saying that oil projects with venezuela are plans not facts which by now makes everyone a skeptic sadly there has to be some truth to some of all this even a fraction of what has been announced would make venezuela s and pdvsa s debt go up which means that both could get cheaper financing in the future and cheaper financing means more funds for venezuelans there are rumors that the government will sell us 4 billion in bonds next week in a 2019 and a 2024 issue to be sold locally for bs but no such luck because besides chavez desie to be in the limelight showing off he relies on a bunch of people that suck up to gim and ramirez who have to keep pleasing him whether what they say is true or not so even before the anything is finalized they make announcements about things that are not even off the drawing board like total s project and in the end screw up regular venezuelans who get no health care have to buy more expensive items or do not receive the social serives they need simply because the hugo chavez show must go on and that is all that matters posted in venezuela 3 comments venezuelan oil exports to the usa you say you want a revolution september 22 2009 you have to love this graph of the percentage of venezuelan exports to the us by ramon espinasa which was published in today s el mundo as you can see 74 of the country s oil exports go to motorize the evil empire an all time high proving the beatle s wisdom when they said you say you want a revolution oh well you now we all want to change the world posted in venezuela 22 comments chavez economic non plan september 21 2009 after wondering arguing discussing and waiting we finally have chavez economic plan only six months late or do we let s see there will be 40 measures but chavez could not keep his own secret and leaked some of them among them already implemented six ministers of the cabinet have received an upgrade and have become vice presidents so that in chavez words we can have a more political cabinet than administrative one is he kidding us does he think that 2 000 barrio adentro modules have no doctor because of political rather than administrative matters and on top of that the people are the same ones that have been incapable of doing anything but let s not get hung up on this after all this is the easy measure already...
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