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the new arthurian economics way ahead of ya steve the new arthurian economics challenging the premisses newer posts at econcrit start with the debt problem three views of it and the most important thing here s a longer look at the debt problem here s a short one on economic policy some surprising trends and a few unusual policy recommendations how d we get into this mess read policy venn and policies of the venn overlap still with me read a matter of life and death and for an overview download my 12 page pdf art s vigor page debt accumulation two new versions of an economic model showing how accumulating debt hurts economic growth 1 jerry s stand alone php version 2 my googledocs file mine brings up a preview window click the use this template button to open it introductory post google translate blog archive 2018 31 january 31 2017 274 december 31 november 26 october 21 september 23 august 27 july 21 june 17 may 21 april 13 march 25 february 25 january 24 2016 318 december 26 november 20 october 30 september 27 august 29 july 17 june 30 may 24 april 30 looking for weakness disorganized writer offers follow up to scatterpl hamilton s find and the phillips curve scatterplot trends fiddlin april update we are at the bottom population growth as a recession indicator quarterly private debt relative to public debt the ratio of what to what amok thank god for them billionaires huh reaching a conclusion plain as the nose on your face and you thought the similarity showed insignificance those are the numbers three samples this again reinforcing the p2p rgdp growth connection i know what i said yesterday speaks for itself george selgin on abolishing the fed john cochrane on the gold standard well there s your problem way ahead of ya steve here s my methodology noah don t always use gd sticky down tweaking the hussmann interest rate calculation the blessed assumption let s look at the quiet time separating finance from productive activity march 30 february 30 january 25 2015 283 december 7 november 11 october 21 september 23 august 26 july 27 june 26 may 30 april 25 march 28 february 27 january 32 2014 374 december 25 november 25 october 26 september 30 august 34 july 35 june 32 may 34 april 33 march 35 february 28 january 37 2013 412 december 33 november 31 october 35 september 32 august 33 july 36 june 31 may 36 april 39 march 40 february 31 january 35 2012 476 december 38 november 35 october 51 september 41 august 35 july 39 june 37 may 31 april 38 march 36 february 44 january 51 2011 571 december 44 november 38 october 41 september 53 august 54 july 52 june 50 may 45 april 54 march 46 february 37 january 57 2010 361 december 51 november 43 october 47 september 43 august 35 july 39 june 31 may 9 april 8 march 12 february 23 january 20 2009 79 december 17 november 10 october 14 september 20 august 3 july 7 june 4 april 1 march 1 february 1 january 1 links the 12 pages pdf html scribd money as credit paul krugman john mason gavin kennedy crisis timeline 1 crisis timeline 2 statistical abstracts measuringworth bea economic accounts bls inflation jobs flow of funds debt st louis fed fred money stock 1947 58 economagic usgovernmentspending top tax rates recession dates corp taxes 2006 irs tax data pk sources historicalstatistics org historical charts perot charts mark wieczorek the secret economist econompic john williams sgs crystal bull aquinum s razor flavianopolis william f hummell ecometry the l curve businomics blog on banking crises cybereconomics tim duy like a father to me worthwhile canadian the skeptical optimist nextblog better of thought action the troublesome economist the candid blogger blended purple frozen arctic tundra truth addicts anon jbpeebles mayday books dredd blog dolor s rants the 40 year old freshman thinking on the margin redonomics broad oak unsettling economics irrational expectations theory2life prac spoiler tips vin s read more faq s image host a very nice menu www w3 schools bloogger help image test and t2 blogger sentral html color codes google translate link within a page supreme court jester dave ross 1 dave ross 2 organize your stuff interesting jim kardi teknomo numerical ignorance mental workout g scaled data g normalized data tufte data analysis arthurian website about me contact labels real is a calculation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1966 1970s growth 1986 2000 2013 revision 400k smoothing a call for better argument a little r n r accelerated repayment of debt accidental discoveries adjusting debt for inflation artish b is greater than a b h finte behavioral ec best put downs bullard s earthquake c d of wealth calculating labor share civ civilization coinage coping cost and productivity cost push cost push inflation credit efficiency crisis chronicles cycle of civilization debasement debt debt and context debt and inflation debt and recovery debt bulge debt good and bad debt is not credit debt productivity debt to gdp debt to gdp in comments def credit def debt def economic activity def financial cost def gdp def general equilibrium def inflation def inside money def investment def issue and reissue def laffer limit def outside money deflation demand pull inflation disarray dpd echoes economic forces economics v the economy eroc erosion of debt evolution of the excuse expectations factors failure s embrace fallacy of composition fcm fed policy federal spending feedback loops final spending financial cost financialization five words five digit years forget about debt fpi fred free banking era full disclosure fun with the mpc gang8 gds gold shortage gresham s law gross domestic spending growth rate calc growth phase growth historical revisionism hoarding hodrick prescott household debt hover craft how to pay for it humor because you might not know if i didn t say i couldn t sleep iceberg inflation introduction is it ego captain jerry says krugman laffer curve limits long and variable loops malaise matched set fekete math problems medium of account military spending milton friedman mmt money multiplier more debt than money is policy motives moving average new tools of policy non linear not only household debt oil parameters for debt pfi policy predicting recession price controls printing vs spending problem x productivity questions r reading and writing red and green reduction reviews scott sumner sequence 2 serfdom simulacron simulated evidence slack special report spreadsheeting stagflation standard deviation star trek stimulus sumner symmetry in deception taxes taylor rule the difference between debt and credit the economy is transaction the k r shift the long decline the supply side the tint knob they don t know timeline tongue in cheek tot ulc umic unsustainable urgency verdoorn waste fraud abuse withering shoots zoho the new arthurian economics copyright 2010 2018 arthur shipman thursday april 7 2016 way ahead of ya steve i don t make predictions because i m always wrong but it seems the only way to get attention is to make a prediction and turn out to be right and if ever there was a time for making predictions this is it almost everyone is expecting another recession or crisis and recession and even steve keen says the u s cannot have a sustained credit boom comparable to what we saw after world war two i predict a boom of golden age vigor beginning in 2016 and lasting eight to ten years it has already begun in two years everyone will be predicting it back in december 2012 i made a comparison of private debt around the 1929 peak and around the 2008 peak graph 1 from the 2008 peak i could only go forward three years to 2011 steve keen shows this graph comparing u s private debt reduction since the recent crisis black to u s private debt reduction during the great depression blue steve keen s figure 9 reduction in private debt since peak level sorry the image lost quality when i re sized it the x axis label says years since peak debt ratio and the numbers go from 0 to 20 by 2s the y axis label says index 100 peak debt level and the numbers go from 0 to 100 by 10s the graph title is repeated in the caption reduction in private debt since peak level the blue line is u s private debt falling after 1932 the black line is u s private debt falling after 2008 the red line is japan this time we re not doing any better than japan is steve keen s point not much reduction in private u s debt in the last few years the decline of debt after 1932 was substantial and because of that we were able to have a long period of vigorous economic growth following the second world war in steve keen s words by the end of the war private debt had fallen to 27 of the peak level reached in 1933 see figure 9 and the stage was set for a credit driven revival in post war aggregate demand from 1945 till 1970 credit expanded at an average 5 7 p a substantially faster than the expansion of credit during the roaring twenties from 1970 until the crisis began in 2008 the expansion in credit averaged 9 of gdp per year no such sustained credit driven boom is possible in either japan or america today because the deleveraging after their two crises has only slightly reduced private debt levels japan s private debt ratio today is still 75 of the peak level reached in 1996 similarly america s private debt level today is 88 of the peak level reached in 2008 see figure 9 those numbers again u s private debt fell way down to 27 of the great depression peak but only fell to 88 of the 2008 peak they got rid of 73 of great depression debt we got rid of 12 of great recession debt deleveraging keen says is the crucial difference between golden age america and today i agree but i want to re do steve keen s graph get rid of the japan data and add a third peak for u s data i ll add the 1990 peak but i don t want to look at raw debt numbers i think the important ratio is debt per dollar of spending money i ll look at that instead for the depression era i m using net private debt and m1 money from the historical statistics bicentennial edition for the more recent data i m using total credit to private non financial sector and m1 adjusted for retail sweeps from fred annual data graph 3 ohhh i m hyperventilating on keen s graph deleverage since 2008 has been only slight on my graph it is comparable to the deleverage after 1932 and far exceeds the deleverage after 1990 it was the deleveraging of 1990 94 that made possible the goldilocks economy of the latter 1990s if the mild deleverage of the early 1990s gave us a good economy then the strong deleverage since 2008 should give us something comparable to the golden age that followed world war two comparable in vigor not in duration let s look at duration the deleverage following 1932 lasted 14 years the golden age following 1947 lasted perhaps to 1973 but let s say with minsky and keen that it lasted only to 1966 that s 19 years golden after 14 years deleverage roughly three years deleverage gives you four years boom compare that to 1990 deleverage lasted to 1994 so four years that means we should have had five or six years of boom 1995 to 2000 sounds about right to me high productivity lasted beyond the year 2000 but by 2000 the dpd ratio had returned to its pre 1990 trend the financial slack in the economy was all used up so we have a number for predicting duration i m not offering investment advice here i m just trying to determine what the debt per dollar ratio tells me it tells me things are gonna be good for a few years better than the good economy of the latter 1990s for how long we run out of data after 2013 after five years deleverage from the graph it looks like we might get another year or two before dpd starts rising again in early march i said first quarter 2016 is the bottom i ll go with that and say 2015 is the last year of deleverage that s seven years deleverage seven bad years seven good years to come we shall see but if three years deleverage gives you four years boom seven years deleverage could give us nine good years but i hate to see the mess of debt we ll be in by then if congress doesn t create some incentives to accelerate the repayment of debt and soon the excel file posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 4 comments the arthurian said atlanta fed gdpnow model currently predicts 4 5 gdp growth for q4 2017 november 3 2017 at 1 39 pm the arthurian said on 1 november 2017 edward harrison writes yesterday i promised you to look at individual economic data points and tell you why i think they bolster the case for optimism about the economic trajectory on 7 april 2016 i said in two years everyone will be predicting it november 17 2017 at 2 35 am the arthurian said from tim duy s fed watch pdf dated 13 november 2017 the federal reserve believes the economy currently operates close to if not a little beyond full employment the unemployment rate fell to 4 1 in october well below the fed s longer run estimate and the 4 4 low of the last cycle and note the broader u 6 unemployment rate which includes measures of underemployment fell to 7 9 the low of the last cycle by these metrics conditions are fast approaching those the late 90 s i believe the economy will sustain enough momentum to hit that point within the next six months on 7 april 2016 i said in two years everyone will be predicting it november 17 2017 at 2 48 pm the arthurian said dr ed s blog june 7 2018 us economy pedal to the metal june 10 2018 at 6 54 am post a comment newer post older post home subscribe to post comments atom you can lead a horse to water but you can t make him drink stay thirsty my friends fred graphs federal reserve bank of st louis 2016 all rights reserved all fred graphs appear courtesy of federal reserve bank of st louis http research stlouisfed org fred2 the st louis fed
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