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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during March 2015;
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being atomistic and additive when causal mechanisms operate in real world social target systems they only do it in ever changing and unstable combinations where the whole is more than a mechanical sum of parts if economic regularities obtain they do it as a rule only because we engineered them for that purpose outside man made mathematical statistical nomological machines they are rare or even non existant unfortunately that also makes most of contemporary mainstream neoclassical endeavours of mathematical economic modeling rather useless and that also goes for krugman in recent blogposts paul krugman has come back to his idea that it would be great if the fed stimulated inflationary expectations so that investments would increase i don t have any problem with this idea per se but i don t think it s of the stature that krugman seems to think but although i have written extensively on knut wicksell and consider him the greatest swedish economist ever i definitely since krugman portrays himself as sorta kinda keynesian have to question his invocation of knut wicksell for his ideas on the natural rate of interest krugman writes emphasis added start with the very simplest view of how fed policy affects the economy the fed sets short term interest rates and other things equal a lower rate leads to higher output the natural rate of interest is the rate at which output equals potential that is at which there are neither inflationary nor deflationary pressures what does this tell us first of all that there is nothing artificial or unnatural about low interest rates they re low because demand is low and the fed is responding appropriately if anything the unnatural situation is that rates are too high because they re constrained by the zero lower bound rates can t go below zero except for some minor technical bobbles because people can always just hold cash second the fed s inability to get rates as low as they should be justifies a search for policies that can fill this policy gap fiscal stimulus is one such policy unconventional monetary policies of various kinds are another actually the natural policy natural in a wicksellian sense and also the one that in terms of standard economics should produce the least distortion would be a credible commitment to higher inflation now consider what keynes himself wrote in general theory in my treatise on money i defined what purported to be a unique rate of interest which i called the natural rate of interest ¾ namely the rate of interest which in the terminology of my treatise preserved equality between the rate of saving as there defined and the rate of investment i believed this to be a development and clarification of wicksell s natural rate of interest which was according to him the rate which would preserve the stability of some not quite clearly specified price level i had however overlooked the fact that in any given society there is on this definition a different natural rate of interest for each hypothetical level of employment and similarly for every rate of interest there is a level of employment for which that rate is the natural rate in the sense that the system will be in equilibrium with that rate of interest and that level of employment thus it was a mistake to speak of the natural rate of interest or to suggest that the above definition would yield a unique value for the rate of interest irrespective of the level of employment i had not then understood that in certain conditions the system could be in equilibrium with less than full employment i am now no longer of the opinion that the wicksellian concept of a natural rate of interest which previously seemed to me a most promising idea has anything very useful or significant to contribute to our analysis it is merely the rate of interest which will preserve the status quo and in general we have no predominant interest in the status quo as such paul krugman has on his blog tried to explain why we should still use the neoclassical hobby horse aggregate supply aggregate demand model so why do as ad we do want somewhere along the way to get across the notion of the self correcting economy the notion that in the long run we may all be dead but that we also have a tendency to return to full employment via price flexibility or to put it differently you do want somehow to make clear the notion which even fairly keynesian guys like me share that money is neutral in the long run actually this is the same unsubstantiated stuff you find in all of the fairly keynesian greg mankiw s textbooks well this fairly keynesian guy is not impressed and i doubt that keynes himself would have been impressed by having his theory being characterized with catchwords like tendency to return to full employment and money is neutral in the long run as taylor and foley convincingly argue krugman is no real keynesian added gmt 1630 in case you still think that keynes shared krugman s concern of getting across the notion of the self correcting economy the notion that in the long run we may all be dead but that we also have a tendency to return to full employment via price flexibility well have a look at this 1934 bbc radio address by keynes and you will certainly come to think differently h t sandwichman share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky statistics and mathematics of no avail in solving our disagreements 25 mar 2015 at 20 29 posted in economics 3 comments statistical science is not really very helpful for understanding or forecasting complex evolving self healing organic ambiguous social systems economies in other words a statistician may have done the programming but when you press a button on a computer keyboard and ask the computer to find some good patterns better get clear a sad fact computers do not think they do exactly what the programmer told them to do and nothing more they look for the patterns that we tell them to look for those and nothing more when we turn to the computer for advice we are only talking to ourselves mathematical analysis works great to decide which horse wins if we are completely confident which horses are in the race but it breaks down when we are not sure in experimental settings the set of alternative models can often be well agreed on but with nonexperimental economics data the set of models is subject to enormous disagreements you disagree with your model made yesterday and i disagree with your model today mathematics does not help much resolve our internal intellectual disagreements ed leamer share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky när bot blir sot 25 mar 2015 at 20 04 posted in economics politics society comments off on när bot blir sot starka offentliga finanser är en absolut förutsättning för tillväxt och fler jobb det inser man nu i frankrike irland italien portugal spanien storbritannien och inte minst grekland runtom i europa väntar tuffa budgetsaneringsprogram det vet vi i sverige efter de krisår vi gått igenom framför allt under 90 talet eller borde veta för oss socialdemokrater är det självklart sverige ska tillbaka till överskott det europa behöver är en ny och stram stabilitets och tillväxtpakt byggd på tydliga regler och sanktioner som tvingar europas länder att sanera sina statsfinanser det måste finnas konsekvenser för medlemsländer som bryter mot pakten det bör övervägas om medlemsländer som bryter mot pakten ska få ta del av eu medel för sveriges del är det oerhört viktigt att euron blir framgångsrik det är viktigt för europas ekonomiska framtid vi är fortfarande positiva till euron som politiskt projekt och är övertygade om att den kan bidra till handel jobb och långsiktig tillväxt europa behöver en ny och stram stabilitets och tillväxtpakt och fler ansvarstagande europeiska regeringar mona sahlin thomas östros grodors plums och ankors plask herre du milde har för mig att östros fick ett nytt jobb också för ett par veckor sedan share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky money hoarding an explanation of today s low inflation 25 mar 2015 at 14 58 posted in economics 10 comments based on the quantity theory of money equation mv pq holding the money velocity constant if the money supply m increases at a faster rate than real economic output q the price level p must increase to make up the difference according to this view inflation in the u s should have been about 31 percent per year between 2008 and 2013 when the money supply grew at an average pace of 33 percent per year and output grew at an average pace just below 2 percent why then has inflation remained persistently low below 2 percent during this period during the first and second quarters of 2014 the velocity of the monetary base2 was at 4 4 its slowest pace on record this means that every dollar in the monetary base was spent only 4 4 times in the economy during the past year down from 17 2 just prior to the recession this implies that the unprecedented monetary base increase driven by the fed s large money injections through its large scale asset purchase programs has failed to cause at least a one for one proportional increase in nominal gdp thus it is precisely the sharp decline in velocity that has offset the sharp increase in money supply leading to the almost no change in nominal gdp either p or q so why did the monetary base increase not cause a proportionate increase in either the general price level or gdp the answer lies in the private sector s dramatic increase in their willingness to hoard money instead of spend it such an unprecedented increase in money demand has slowed down the velocity of money and why then would people suddenly decide to hoard money instead of spend it a possible answer lies in the combination of two issues a glooming economy after the financial crisis the dramatic decrease in interest rates that has forced investors to readjust their portfolios toward liquid money and away from interest bearing assets such as government bonds yi wen maria arias st louis fed anyone still believing in say s law just wondering share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky macroeconomics totally messed up 25 mar 2015 at 09 12 posted in economics 2 comments until a few years ago economists of all persuasions confidently proclaimed that the great depression would never recur in a way they were right after the financial crisis of 2008 erupted we got the great recession instead governments managed to limit the damage by pumping huge amounts of money into the global economy and slashing interest rates to near zero but having cut off the downward slide of 2008 2009 they ran out of intellectual and political ammunition economic advisers assured their bosses that recovery would be rapid and there was some revival but then it stalled in 2010 meanwhile governments were running large deficits a legacy of the economic downturn which renewed growth was supposed to shrink in the eurozone countries like greece faced sovereign debt crises as bank bailouts turned private debt into public debt attention switched to the problem of fiscal deficits and the relationship between deficits and economic growth should governments deliberately expand their deficits to offset the fall in household and investment demand or should they try to cut public spending in order to free up money for private spending depending on which macroeconomic theory one held both could be presented as pro growth policies the first might cause the economy to expand because the government was increasing public spending the second because they were cutting it keynesian theory suggests the first governments unanimously put their faith in the second the consequences of this choice are clear it is now pretty much agreed that fiscal tightening has cost developed economies 5 10 percentage points of gdp growth since 2010 all of that output and income has been permanently lost moreover because fiscal austerity stifled economic growth it made the task of reducing budget deficits and national debt as a share of gdp much more difficult cutting public spending it turned out was not the same as cutting the deficit because it cut the economy at the same time robert skidelsky share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky boom bust boom 24 mar 2015 at 16 54 posted in economics comments off on boom bust boom share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky desire 22 mar 2015 at 14 05 posted in varia comments off on desire putte wickman 1924 2006 self taught master jazz clarinetist att försvara mänskliga rättigheter måste få kosta 20 mar 2015 at 08 29 posted in politics society 1 comment diskussionens vågor går i dessa dagar höga vad gäller de diplomatiska relationerna med saudiarabien och hur de lämpligen hanteras de flesta verkar hålla med om att t ex tusen piskrapp plus 10 års fängelse inte känns som ett riktigt proportionerligt straff för lite bloggande kritik mot religiösa ledare låt oss försiktigt sammanfatta det som att det finns en del som tyder på att saudiarabien inte är bäst i klassen avseende mänskliga rättigheter enigheten är mindre framträdande när det gäller hur den svenska regeringen hanterat kopplade saker den senaste tiden heidi avellan sydsvenskan har ju inte gjort sig känd som en fanatisk löfvensupporter och menade i en krönika 13 3 att även det utrikespolitiska nu dragits in i det pågående rödgröna haveriet i ett försök att knyppla ihop en liberal hållning vad gäller mänskliga rättigheter med kritik mot utrikesministerns förmodade klumperier skriver avellan att margot wallströms kritik var berättigad men diplomatiskt illa formulerad det är svårt undgå slutsatsen att det som stört harmonin är att kritiken som alltså ansågs befogad faktiskt uppmärksammades av saudiarabien om wallström bara hade uttalat kritiken för sig själv inne på någon toalett i sagerska palatset medan stefan löfven med någon vag fras om hur mycket bättre världen vore med mer mänskliga rättigheter löst upp avtalet när löptiden ändå runnit ut så hade saken varit utagerad fingerspitzgefühl det är naturligtvis sant men det man måste fråga sig är om sådant fjäderlätt diplomatiskt tryck från en liten stat som sverige är meningsfullt annat än för att hjälpa liberalt sinnade samhällsdebattörer att sova en smula bättre om natten nå vi har i alla fall gjort något kanske det kanske men man har väl knappast gjort mindre om man med avsevärt uppkäftigare diplomati fått massvis med internationell uppmärksamhet och uppenbarligen gjort diplomatiskt intryck på motparten om inget annat så komplicerar det i vart fall avellans påstående att ...
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