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s a short one on economic policy some surprising trends and a few unusual policy recommendations how d we get into this mess read policy venn and policies of the venn overlap still with me read a matter of life and death and for an overview download my 12 page pdf art s vigor page debt accumulation two new versions of an economic model showing how accumulating debt hurts economic growth 1 jerry s stand alone php version 2 my googledocs file mine brings up a preview window click the use this template button to open it introductory post google translate blog archive 2018 31 january 31 2017 274 december 31 november 26 october 21 september 23 august 27 july 21 june 17 may 21 april 13 march 25 february 25 january 24 2016 318 december 26 november 20 october 30 september 27 august 29 july 17 june 30 may 24 april 30 march 30 february 30 january 25 2015 283 december 7 november 11 october 21 september 23 august 26 july 27 june 26 may 30 april 25 march 28 february 27 january 32 2014 374 december 25 november 25 october 26 september 30 august 34 july 35 june 32 may 34 april 33 march 35 february 28 january 37 2013 412 december 33 november 31 october 35 september 32 august 33 july 36 june 31 may 36 april 39 march 40 february 31 january 35 2012 476 december 38 november 35 october 51 september 41 august 35 july 39 june 37 may 31 april 38 march 36 february 44 january 51 2011 571 december 44 november 38 shiller vs shiller omg frequency aggregation longwave 2 make that three peaks longwave black friday black saturday the job guarantee all money is debt thanks debttlusa188a averages of averages the suppression of money on your mark get set decline phase shift money and income 2 a fallacy of composition sure the extremes are different but the long term growth of savings normal durden poking around money and income ignoring a variable at the zoo with nicholas werle and then it hit me better graphs you can find anything on the internet sometimes you just don t want to lose the link velocity and the non federal relative save your stuff highlights from a year old article the two debts henry hazlitt and the supercommittee the queen keeps an eye on current inflation an old bookmark total debt and m1 on a 2 line graph normalized t explain me this the moving average struldbrug corporation saturday sunday monday tuesday more on reading a graph october 41 september 53 august 54 july 52 june 50 may 45 april 54 march 46 february 37 january 57 2010 361 december 51 november 43 october 47 september 43 august 35 july 39 june 31 may 9 april 8 march 12 february 23 january 20 2009 79 december 17 november 10 october 14 september 20 august 3 july 7 june 4 april 1 march 1 february 1 january 1 links the 12 pages pdf html scribd money as credit paul krugman john mason gavin kennedy crisis timeline 1 crisis timeline 2 statistical abstracts measuringworth bea economic accounts bls inflation jobs flow of funds debt st louis fed fred money stock 1947 58 economagic usgovernmentspending top tax rates recession dates corp taxes 2006 irs tax data pk sources historicalstatistics org historical charts perot charts mark wieczorek the secret economist econompic john williams sgs crystal bull aquinum s razor flavianopolis william f hummell ecometry the l curve businomics blog on banking crises cybereconomics tim duy like a father to me worthwhile canadian the skeptical optimist nextblog better of thought action the troublesome economist the candid blogger blended purple frozen arctic tundra truth addicts anon jbpeebles mayday books dredd blog dolor s rants the 40 year old freshman thinking on the margin redonomics broad oak unsettling economics irrational expectations theory2life prac spoiler tips vin s read more faq s image host a very nice menu www w3 schools bloogger help image test and t2 blogger sentral html color codes google translate link within a page supreme court jester dave ross 1 dave ross 2 organize your stuff interesting jim kardi teknomo numerical ignorance mental workout g scaled data g normalized data tufte data analysis arthurian website about me contact labels real is a calculation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1966 1970s growth 1986 2000 2013 revision 400k smoothing a call for better argument a little r n r accelerated repayment of debt accidental discoveries adjusting debt for inflation artish b is greater than a b h finte behavioral ec best put downs bullard s earthquake c d of wealth calculating labor share civ civilization coinage coping cost and productivity cost push cost push inflation credit efficiency crisis chronicles cycle of civilization debasement debt debt and context debt and inflation debt and recovery debt bulge debt good and bad debt is not credit debt productivity debt to gdp debt to gdp in comments def credit def debt def economic activity def financial cost def gdp def general equilibrium def inflation def inside money def investment def issue and reissue def laffer limit def outside money deflation demand pull inflation disarray dpd echoes economic forces economics v the economy eroc erosion of debt evolution of the excuse expectations factors failure s embrace fallacy of composition fcm fed policy federal spending feedback loops final spending financial cost financialization five words five digit years forget about debt fpi fred free banking era full disclosure fun with the mpc gang8 gds gold shortage gresham s law gross domestic spending growth rate calc growth phase growth historical revisionism hoarding hodrick prescott household debt hover craft how to pay for it humor because you might not know if i didn t say i couldn t sleep iceberg inflation introduction is it ego captain jerry says krugman laffer curve limits long and variable loops malaise matched set fekete math problems medium of account military spending milton friedman mmt money multiplier more debt than money is policy motives moving average new tools of policy non linear not only household debt oil parameters for debt pfi policy predicting recession price controls printing vs spending problem x productivity questions r reading and writing red and green reduction reviews scott sumner sequence 2 serfdom simulacron simulated evidence slack special report spreadsheeting stagflation standard deviation star trek stimulus sumner symmetry in deception taxes taylor rule the difference between debt and credit the economy is transaction the k r shift the long decline the supply side the tint knob they don t know timeline tongue in cheek tot ulc umic unsustainable urgency verdoorn waste fraud abuse withering shoots zoho the new arthurian economics copyright 2010 2018 arthur shipman wednesday november 30 2011 shiller vs shiller the shiller interest rate numbers are monthly values after 1953 are from fred maybe values before 1953 are calculated from annual numbers before 1953 the file contains numbers for january of each year and calculated values for february thru december of each year these calculated values produce straight lines from january to january up until 1953 graph 1 shiller monthlies the graph below uses only the january values from the same shiller data graph 2 shiller januaries posted by the arthurian at 9 09 pm 0 comments omg so i started looking at the shiller file and i saw stuff in there like this b21 7 12 b33 5 12 what the turns out shiller is taking seven twelfths of a previous actual number and adding it to five twelfths of a subsequent actual number to calculate a monthly value it is all like that with a number for january of each year and calculated trend values for the eleven intervening months from 1871 all the way up to 1953 after that there are numbers for every month rather than calculations shiller is figuring points on straight lines that run from january to january that s why the econompic graph appears relatively smooth up to 1953 then jiggy graph 1 110 years of interest rates econompic in the previous post i wrote gotta go with annual because otherwise i m just making things up apparently sometimes it s okay to just make things up okay but instead of taking averages of shiller s calculated values i m just gonna go with the actual values that are given for january of each year that s definitely my plan for the numbers up to 1953 after that i could take averages of yearly values but it would be easier just to go with the january numbers all the way through we ll see posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 6 comments tuesday november 29 2011 frequency aggregation my dpd numbers are annual i can go back to the 1940s or 50s with quarterly data but before that it s all annual so annual it is shiller s interest rate numbers are monthly it makes for a spreadsheet with a lot of rows something like 1600 excel scrolls down well but google docs goes at its own pace and you have time to see the numbers and notice whether they re increasing rapidly or not while you wait that s not really the problem the problem is that i want to compare the interest rate numbers to the dpd numbers on the same graph so i need or think i need numbers with the same frequency all monthly or all quarterly or all annual gotta go with annual because otherwise i m just making things up so naturally i turned to uncle fred the fred frequency aggregation feature converts higher frequency data series into lower frequency data series e g converts a monthly data series into an annual data series in fred the highest frequency data is daily and the lowest frequency data is annual there are 3 aggregation methods available average sum and end of period the average sum and end of period aggregation methods all return lower frequency values with the same number of decimal places as the higher frequency values that are being aggregated for example a monthly series with values 100 1 100 4 and 100 9 for the first 3 months of year is averaged to a quarterly value of 100 5 i e 100 467 rounded up to 100 5 fred s gdp series numbers are quarterly and when you convert them to annual the default aggregation method is average fred s fedfunds interest rate series shows monthly data and when you convert them to annual again the default aggregation method is average i will therefore average robert shiller s monthly numbers to get my annual values fred i don t know what i d do without ya posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 3 comments monday november 28 2011 longwave 2 make that three peaks after i saw the similarities and differences between dpd and the interest rate see yesterday s post i decided to plot the two against each other like inflation versus unemployment on the phillips curve graph so i went back to econompic where jake has a link to interest rate data from robert j shiller s irrational exuberance when i clicked jake s link download started automatically for the excel file ie_data xls the file contains two sheets with graphs and one with data going back to 1871 stock dividends and a price index among others and in column g the interest rate numbers a graph of shiller s interest rate data going back to 1871 shows three longwave peaks not two graph 1 the graph also seems to show secondary peaks at the lows one in the neighborhood of 1894 and another at the time of the great depression the first of these falls neatly at the bottom between the 1872 and 1921 peaks the second seems to come before the 1941 low and belie the notion of secondary peaks could be or it could be that the severity of the great depression or the policy response to it or both created additional downward force i am obviously not prepared to say at this time the years between the first peak and the end of the first secondary peak match the years of the long depression posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments sunday november 27 2011 longwave my thesis in this lecture is that macroeconomics in this original sense has succeeded its central problem of depression prevention has been solved for all practical purposes and has in fact been solved for many decades the many decades to which robert e lucas jr refers in the above excerpt were the decades called the golden age of postwar capitalism and the decades called the great moderation those many decades were the comfortable parts of the kondratieff cycle which is sometimes called the long wave a long term view of the interest rate on 10 year treasuries and a long term view of debt per dollar graph 1 110 years of interest rates econompic graph 2 debt per dollar 1916 2010 both graphs display cyclic patterns each graph peaks twice though the peaks occur at different times the interest rate peaks earlier dpd peaks later since interest rates peaked and began falling in the 1980s we should have known what was in store for us regarding debt since the 1960s we should have known heck our grandfathers should have told us as much but the people who study such things for a living like robert lucas were claiming victory over the forces of nature posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments saturday november 26 2011 black friday black saturday people don t remember things black tuesday was not a good day but that s forgotten now now a black day is for some reason a day to be a shopping fool of course black tuesday was a lifetime ago you can t really expect people to remember it so i guess if there was a business cycle that lasted that long you couldn t really expect people to notice it either huh those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it posted by the arthurian at 4 00 pm 1 comments the job guarantee people call for a job guarantee why because people need income but all income is money and all money is debt so all income is debt so income is a problem what s wrong with that argument the phrase money is debt is what s wrong the phrase does not mean money is the same as debt it means money comes into existence through the creation of debt or something like that whether that is always true is not up for consideration here certainly it is true sometimes i want a job so that i can receive money oh sorry that s too direct i want a job so that i can receive income because the stuff i receive as income is money and i want the money so far so good but now someone cries out all money is debt and that is supposed to bring the discussion to a grinding halt i want a job because i need the money but all money is debt what is that supposed to mean at best i have this i want a job because i need the money all money comes into existence through the creation of debt or maybe not all money but a lot of it or some of it anyhow the phrase all money is debt is irrelevant stop using it posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 7 comments friday november 25 2011 all money is debt you say all red is color i say we should be using green you say green is still a color so there is no difference posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 4 comments thursday november 24 2011 thanks i may not be an economist but i certainly am a blogger i probably spend as much time checking my blog stats as i spend checking my email i thought today might...
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