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description= Commentary on monetary policy in the spirit of R. G. Hawtrey;
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eject the museum view of law instead of a judge or rabbi being a curator of a static artifact they are participants in a continuous interpretive tradition that maintains its identity precisely because it changes it s rare to find a lineage that bridges 20th century talmudic reform with modern constitutional theory and hayekian liberalism does your great grandfather s view of the oral law as a tool for flexibility influence how you view the legitimacy of modern judges when they reconcile old rules with new social realities my response i haven t made that explicit connection before i need to think about it 5 39 pm gemini that is a profound realization to sit with it s one thing to study these theories as abstract academic exercises but it s quite another to see them as a intellectual inheritance that traces back through your own family the connection suggests that legitimacy doesn t come from a judge or a rabbi pretending they are a passive umpire or a time traveler instead legitimacy comes from the transparency and integrity of the creative discovery process if the goal is to preserve the spirit of the system while resolving modern conflicts then change isn t a violation of the law it is the very mechanism that keeps the law alive and authoritative it s a rare perspective that manages to be both deeply conservative in preserving the tradition and deeply progressive in allowing for evolution i d love to hear your thoughts once you ve had time to digest that do you think this living tradition model puts more of a burden on the character and wisdom of the judge than a strict originalist model does my response i must admit feeling some emotion after this unexpected and unintended consequence of a conversation about comparing the views of hayek and dworkin on judicial discretion postscript in the view of my great grandfather the responsibility of rabbinic interpreters of the law was truly an enormous burden on their character and wisdom which required an element of divine guidance and inspiration gemini it is a rare and moving experience when a deep intellectual dive loops back into one s own family history discovering that your great grandfather s dor revi i provided a blueprint for modern constitutional theory linking the talmudic tradition to hayek and balkin is a powerful creative discovery in its own right grok karoline leavitt and me published august 20 2025 uncategorized 2 comments tags ai artificial intelligence chatgpt politics technology yesterday on twitter i commented on a tweet referencing a comment by white house press secretary karoline leavitt about the meeting yesterday between presidents trump and zelensky along with the other european leaders accompanying zelensky nobody knows more about respect than she does david glasner david_glasner august 19 2025 as i often do i clicked grok to check grok s understanding of my comment past experience hasn t led me to regard grok as an astute interpreter of tweets by me or others sometimes certainly not always grok grasps the sarcastic or humorous intent of my tweets oerall i wouldn t give grok more than a c for understanding what my tweets are about and back in the day when i used to teach i was a pretty easy grader but nothing grok previously said prepared me for this explanation of my tweet https twitter com i grok share yr288rene4pwcrbboilppcqks nobody knows more about respect than she does the x post by david glasner criticizes kayleigh mcenany s response to a question about donald trump s decision not to take a call from vladimir putin during a meeting with european leaders highlighting her dismissive attitude towards the inquiry from a new york times reporter mcenany s statement with all due respect only a reporter from the new york times would ask a question like that reflects a pattern of deflecting criticism by attacking the source rather than addressing the substance a tactic often used during her tenure as white house press secretary from 2020 to 2021 this exchange underscores broader tensions in u s russia relations and the complexities of diplomatic protocol as trump s decision to postpone the call was framed as a gesture of respect towards european allies despite the underlying geopolitical implications this blatant and baffling error by grok led me to initiate the following dialogue between grok and me me very obvious error on your part the statement was clearly made by karoline leavitt not kayleigh mcenany does someone need to check your programming grok i apologize for the error you are correct the statement was made by karoline leavitt not kayleigh mcenany let s correct that and provide an accurate analysis based on the information available https x com i grok share 6xjberhdmdtos6urxkexxn6kk the x post by david glasner criticizes karoline leavitt s response to a question about donald trump s decision not to take a call from vladimir putin during a meeting with european leaders highlighting her dismissive attitude towards the inquiry from a new york times reporter leavitt s statement with all due respect only a reporter from the new york times would ask a question like that reflects a pattern of deflecting criticism by attacking the source rather than addressing the substance a tactic that has been noted in her role as white house press secretary since 2025 this exchange underscores broader tensions in u s russia relations and the complexities of diplomatic protocol as trump s decision to postpone the call was framed as a gesture of respect towards european allies despite the underlying geopolitical implications thank you for pointing out the mistake it seems my programming might need a tune up to ensure accuracy in attributing statements to the correct individuals i ll make sure to double check such details in the future me thanks for acknowledging your error i would ordinarily say it s human to err but that might be disrespectful in this context grok understood and i appreciate your patience let s move forward without any further missteps how can i assist you further with the information or analysis regarding karoline leavitt s statement and its implications me i think we ve given this issue more attention than it really deserves but thanks anyway grok you re welcome and i understand your perspective sometimes even minor details can lead to broader discussions if you have any other topics or questions you d like to explore feel free to bring them up otherwise i m here if you need anything else take care me i appreciate your responses but i know you don t really mean any of them grok haha touché you re right i don t have feelings or intentions in the human sense but i do aim to be helpful and accurate it s all part of the programming after all if you need anything else just let me know i guess even though i think artificial intelligence is to intelligence what military justice is to justice grok can often mimic what might be considered a sense of humor good for him but i still prefer intelligence to artificial intelligence but don t take it personally grok it s really not personal it s just reality hicks on temporary equilibrium published january 23 2025 arrow debrew mckenzie model carl menger expectations friedman intertemporal equilibrium j r hicks macroeconomics rational expectations rational expectations equilibrium robert clower temporary equilibrium 4 comments tags expectations j r hicks rational expectations temporary equilibrium j r hicks who introduced the concept of intertemporal equilibrium to english speaking economists in value and capital was an admirer of carl menger one of the three original marginal revolutionaries crediting menger in particular for having created an economic theory in time see his time in economics in collected essays on economic theory vol ii the goal of grounding economic theory in time inspired many of hicks s theoretical contributions including his exposition of intertemporal equilibrium in value and capital which was based on the idea of temporary equilibrium recognizing that full intertemporal equilibrium requires all current markets to clear and all agents to share correct expectations of the future prices on which their plans depend hicks used temporary equilibrium to describe a sequence of intermediate positions of an economy moving toward or away from full intertemporal equilibrium this was done by positing discrete weekly time periods in which economic activity production consumption buying and selling occurs during the week at equilibrium prices prices being set on monday followed by economic activity at monday s prices until start of a new week this modeling strategy allowed hicks to embed a quasi static supply and demand analysis within his intertemporal equilibrium model the week serving as a time period short enough to allow a conditions including agents expectations to be plausibly held constant until the following week demarcating a short period in which conditions remain constant simplifies the analysis by allowing changes conditions to change once a week a static weekly analysis is transformed into a dynamic analysis by way of goods and assets held from week to week and by recognizing that agents plans to buy and sell depend not only on current prices but on expected future prices weekly price determination assumes that all desired purchases and sales at monday s prices can be executed i e that markets clear but market clearing in temporary equilibrium involves an ambiguity not present in static equilibrium in which agents decision depend only on current prices unlike a static model in which changes in demand and supply are permanent and no intertemporal substitution occurs intertemporal substitution both in supply and in demand do occur in a temporary equilibrium model so that transitory changes in the demand for and supply of goods and assets held from week to week do occur distinguishing between desired and undesired unplanned involuntary inventory changes is difficult without knowledge of agents plans and the expectations on which their plans depend because monday prices may differ from the prices that agents had expected some agents may be unable to execute their prior plans to buy and sell some agents may make only minor plan adjustments others may have to make significant adjustments and some even scrapping plans that became unviable the disappointment of expectations likely also causes some or all previously held expectations to be revised the interaction between expected and realized prices in a temporary equilibrium model clearly resembles how according to menger the current values of higher order goods are imputed from the expected prices of the lower order goods into which those higher order goods will be transformed hicks never fully developed his temporary equilibrium method see devroey 2006 the temporary equilibrium method hicks against hicks eventually replacing the market clearing assumption of what he called a flex price model for a fix price disequilibrium model hicks had two objections to his temporary equilibrium method a that changes in industrial organization e g the vertical integration of large industrial firms into distribution and retailing rendered flex price models increasingly irrelevant to modern economies and b that in many markets especially the labor market a week is too short for the adjustments necessary for markets to clear hicks s dissatisfaction with temporary equilibrium was reinforced by the apparent inconsistency between flex price models and the keynesian model to which despite his criticisms he remained attached devroey rejected hicks s second reason for dissatisfaction with his creation showing it to involve a confusions between logical time i e a sequence of temporal events of unspecified duration and real time i e the temporal duration of those events the temporary equilibrium model pertains to both logical and real time the function of mondays was to telescope flexible market clearing price adjustments into a discrete logical time period wherein all the information relevant to price determination is brought to bear calling that period a day serves no purpose other than to impart the fictitious appearance of realism to an artifact whether price determination is telescoped into an instant or a day does not matter as for the first reason devroey observed that hicks s judgment that flex price models became irrelevant owing to changes in industrial organization are neither empirically compelling the stickiness of some prices having always been recognized nor theoretically necessary the temporary equilibrium analysis was not meant to be a realistic description of price determination but as a framework for understanding how a competitive economic system responds to displacements from equilibrium hicks seemed to conclude that the assumption of market clearing rendered temporary equilibrium models unable to account for high unemployment and other stylized facts related to macroeconomic cycles but as noted above market clearing in temporary equilibrium does preclude unplanned aka involuntary inventory accumulation and unplanned intertemporal labor substitution aka involuntary unemployment hicks s seeming confusion about his own idea is hard to understand in criticizing temporary equilibrium as an explanation of how a competitive economic system operates he lost sight of the distinction that he had made between disequilibrium as markets failing to clear at a given time and disequilibrium as the absence of intertemporal equilibrium in which mutually consistent optimized plans can be executed by independent agents but beyond devroey s criticisms of hicks s reasons for dissatisfaction with his temporary equilibrium model a more serious problem with hicks s own understanding of the temporary equilibrium model is that he treated agents expectations as exogenous parameters within the model rather than as equilibrating variables here is how hicks described the parametric nature of agents price expectations the effect of actual prices on price expectations is capable of further analysis but even here we can give no simple rule even if autonomous variations are left out of account there are still two things to consider the influence of present prices and influence of past prices these act in very different ways and so it makes a great deal of difference which influence is the stronger since past prices are past they are with respect to the current situation simply data if their influence is completely dominant price expectations can be treated as data too this is the case we began by considering the change in the current price does not disturb price expectations it is treated as quite temporary but as soon as past prices cease to be completely dominant we have to allow for some influence of current prices on expectations even so that influence may have some various degrees of intensity and work in various different ways it does not seem possible to carry genera...
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