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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during January 2016;
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ught called experimental and behavioural economics i was disappointed my colleagues such as herb sam and ernst confirmed my own impression they appreciated the relevance of evolution but were a tiny minority among behavioral and experimental economists who in turn were a tiny minority among neoclassical economists the more i learned about economics the more i discovered a landscape that is surpassingly strange like the land of mordor it is dominated by a single theoretical edifice that arose like a volcano early in the 20th century and still dominates the landscape the edifice is based upon a conception of human nature that is profoundly false defying the dictates of common sense before we even get to the more refined dictates of psychology and evolutionary theory yet efforts to move the theory in the direction of common sense are stubbornly resisted david sloan wilson h t tom hickey good advice 30 jan 2016 at 11 31 posted in varia comments off on good advice if you really want something you have to be prepared to work very hard take advantage of opportunity and above all never give up h t ulrika hall at the age of thirty seven 29 jan 2016 at 21 34 posted in varia comments off on at the age of thirty seven still absolutely breathtakingly great logic of science vs methods of science 29 jan 2016 at 17 19 posted in theory of science methodology comments off on logic of science vs methods of science share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky manfred mann 29 jan 2016 at 09 15 posted in varia comments off on manfred mann against multiple regression analysis 28 jan 2016 at 18 35 posted in statistics econometrics 2 comments distinguished social psychologist richard e nisbett has a somewhat atypical aversion to multiple regression analysis in his intelligence and how to get it norton 2011 he wrote p 17 researchers often determine the individual s contemporary iq or iq earlier in life socioeconomic status of the family of origin living circumstances when the individual was a child number of siblings whether the family had a library card educational attainment of the individual and other variables and put all of them into a multiple regression equation predicting adult socioeconomic status or income or social pathology or whatever researchers then report the magnitude of the contribution of each of the variables in the regression equation net of all the others that is holding constant all the others it always turns out that iq net of all the other variables is important to outcomes but the independent variables pose a tangle of causality with some causing others in goodness knows what ways and some being caused by unknown variables that have not even been measured higher socioeconomic status of parents is related to educational attainment of the child but higher socioeconomic status parents have higher iqs and this affects both the genes that the child has and the emphasis that the parents are likely to place on education and the quality of the parenting with respect to encouragement of intellectual skills and so on so statements such as iq accounts for x percent of the variation in occupational attainment are built on the shakiest of statistical foundations what nature hath joined together multiple regressions cannot put asunder and now he is back with a half an hour lecture the crusade against multiple regression analysis posted on the edge website a week ago watch the lecture here now i think that what nisbett says is right as far as it goes although it would certainly have strengthened nisbett s argumentation if he had elaborated more on the methodological question around causality or at least had given some mathematical statistical econometric references unfortunately his alternative approach is not more convincing than regression analysis as so many other contemporary social scientists today nisbett seems to think that randomization may solve the empirical problem by randomizing we are getting different populations that are homogeneous in regards to all variables except the one we think is a genuine cause in this way we are supposed to be able to not have to actually know what all these other factors are if you succeed in performing an ideal randomization with different treatment groups and control groups that is attainable but it presupposes that you really have been able to establish and not just assume that the probability of all other causes but the putative have the same probability distribution in the treatment and control groups and that the probability of assignment to treatment or control groups are independent of all other possible causal variables unfortunately real experiments and real randomizations seldom or never achieve this so yes we may do without knowing all causes but it takes ideal experiments and ideal randomizations to do that not real ones as i have argued e g here that means that in practice we do have to have sufficient background knowledge to deduce causal knowledge without old knowledge we can t get new knowledge and no causes in no causes out nisbett is well worth reading and listening to but on the issue of the shortcomings of multiple regression analysis no one sums it up better than eminent mathematical statistician david freedman in his statistical models and causal inference if the assumptions of a model are not derived from theory and if predictions are not tested against reality then deductions from the model must be quite shaky however without the model the data cannot be used to answer the research question in my view regression models are not a particularly good way of doing empirical work in the social sciences today because the technique depends on knowledge that we do not have investigators who use the technique are not paying adequate attention to the connection if any between the models and the phenomena they are studying their conclusions may be valid for the computer code they have created but the claims are hard to transfer from that microcosm to the larger world regression models often seem to be used to compensate for problems in measurement data collection and study design by the time the models are deployed the scientific position is nearly hopeless reliance on models in such cases is panglossian given the limits to present knowledge i doubt that models can be rescued by technical fixes arguments about the theoretical merit of regression or the asymptotic behavior of specification tests for picking one version of a model over another seem like the arguments about how to build desalination plants with cold fusion and the energy source the concept may be admirable the technical details may be fascinating but thirsty people should look elsewhere causal inference from observational data presents may difficulties especially when underlying mechanisms are poorly understood there is a natural desire to substitute intellectual capital for labor and an equally natural preference for system and rigor over methods that seem more haphazard these are possible explanations for the current popularity of statistical models indeed far reaching claims have been made for the superiority of a quantitative template that depends on modeling by those who manage to ignore the far reaching assumptions behind the models however the assumptions often turn out to be unsupported by the data if so the rigor of advanced quantitative methods is a matter of appearance rather than substance the force from above cleaning my soul 28 jan 2016 at 09 30 posted in varia comments off on the force from above cleaning my soul krugman a vichy left coward 27 jan 2016 at 23 53 posted in politics society comments off on krugman a vichy left coward paul krugman s recent posts have been most peculiar several have looked uncomfortably like special pleading for political figures he likes notably hillary clinton he has in my judgement stooped rather far down in attacking people well below him in the public relations food chain perhaps the most egregious and clearest cut case is his refusal to address the substance of a completely legitimate well documented article by david dayen outing krugman and to a lesser degree his fellow traveler mike konczal in abjectly misrepresenting sanders financial reform proposals the krugman that was early to stand up to the iraq war who was incisive before and during the crisis has been very much in absence since obama took office it s hard to understand the loss of intellectual independence that may not make krugman any worse than other democratic party apparatchiks but he continues to believe he is other than that and the lashing out at dayen looks like a wounded denial of his current role krugman and konczal need to be seen as what they are part of the vichy left brand cover for the democratic party messaging apparatus krugman sadly has chosen to diminish himself for a not very worthy cause yves smith naked capitalism share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky thatcher policies for dummies 27 jan 2016 at 15 47 posted in politics society comments off on thatcher policies for dummies what is post keynesian economics 27 jan 2016 at 11 05 posted in economics comments off on what is post keynesian economics deduction induction abduction 25 jan 2016 at 14 42 posted in theory of science methodology 3 comments in science and economics one could argue that there basically are three kinds of argumentation patterns schemes methods strategies available deduction premise 1 all chicago economists believe in reh premise 2 robert lucas is a chicago economist conclusion robert lucas believes in reh here we have an example of a logically valid deductive inference and following quine whenever logic is used in this essay logic refers to deductive analytical logic in a hypothetico deductive reasoning hypothetico deductive confirmation in this case we would use the conclusion to test the law like hypothesis in premise 1 according to the hypothetico deductive model a hypothesis is confirmed by evidence if the evidence is deducible from the hypothesis if robert lucas does not believe in reh we have gained some warranted reason for non acceptance of the hypothesis an obvious shortcoming here being that further information beyond that given in the explicit premises might have given another conclusion the hypothetico deductive method in case we treat the hypothesis as absolutely sure true we rather talk of an axiomatic deductive method basically means that we posit a hypothesis infer empirically testable propositions consequences from it test the propositions through observation or experiment depending on the testing results either find the hypothesis corroborated or falsified however in science we regularly use a kind of practical argumentation where there is little room for applying the restricted logical formal transformations view of validity and inference most people would probably accept the following argument as a valid reasoning even though it from a strictly logical point of view is non valid premise 1 robert lucas is a chicago economist premise 2 the recorded proportion of keynesian chicago economists is zero conclusion so certainly robert lucas is not a keynesian economist how come well i guess one reason is that in science contrary to what you find in most logic text books not very many argumentations are settled by showing that all xs are ys in scientific practice we instead present other than analytical explicit warrants and backings data experience evidence theories models for our inferences as long as we can show that our deductions or inferences are justifiable and have well backed warrants our colleagues listen to us that our scientific deductions or inferences are logical non entailments simply is not a problem to think otherwise is committing the fallacy of misapplying formal analytical logic categories to areas where they are pretty much irrelevant or simply beside the point scientific arguments are not analytical arguments where validity is solely a question of formal properties scientific arguments are substantial arguments if robert lucas is a keynesian or not is nothing we can decide on formal properties of statements propositions we have to check out what the guy has actually been writing and saying to check if the hypothesis that he is a keynesian is true or not in a deductive nomological explanation also known as a covering law explanation we would try to explain why robert lucas believes in reh with the help of the two premises in this case actually giving an explanation with very little explanatory value these kinds of explanations both in their deterministic and statistic probabilistic versions rely heavily on deductive entailment from assumed to be true premises but they have preciously little to say on where these assumed to be true premises come from deductive logic of confirmation and explanation may work well given that they are used in deterministic closed models in mathematics the deductive axiomatic method has worked just fine but science is not mathematics conflating those two domains of knowledge has been one of the most fundamental mistakes made in the science of economics applying it to real world systems however immediately proves it to be excessively narrow and hopelessly irrelevant both the confirmatory and explanatory ilk of hypothetico deductive reasoning fails since there is no way you can relevantly analyze confirmation or explanation as a purely logical relation between hypothesis and evidence or between law like rules and explananda in science we argue and try to substantiate our beliefs and hypotheses with reliable evidence proportional and predicate deductive logic on the other hand is not about reliability but the validity of the conclusions given that the premises are true deduction and the inferences that goes with it is an example of explicative reasoning where the conclusions we make are already included in the premises deductive inferences are purely analytical and it is this truth preserving nature of deduction that makes it different from all other kinds of reasoning but it is also its limitation since truth in the deductive context does not refer to a real world ontology only relating propositions as true or false within a formal logic system and as an argument scheme is totally non ampliative the output of the analysis is nothing else than the input continue reading deduction induction abduction share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky new keynesian dsge models 24 jan 2016 at 10 28 posted in economics 2 comments in the model gali smets and wouters unemployment in an estimated new keyesian mode l 2011 there is perfect consumption insurance among the members of the household because of separability in uti...
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