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Text of the page (random words):
rowth 1 jerry s stand alone php version 2 my googledocs file mine brings up a preview window click the use this template button to open it introductory post google translate blog archive 2018 31 january 31 there is one thing are you high seeing past the aberrations in debt to gdp where we stand shiller what drives these decade long swings in c an interesting footnote on the federal debt on raising interest rates the forgotten crash 1966 you wanna count what my how the story has changed interest cost by sector dolts for better theory keynes on excessive finance non financial in name only repetition helps anna zabai of bis on household debt us population back to 1929 households and hedge funds the eye that looks ahead to the safe course is cl two sides to every story not investment advice labor share as index and as percent inequality is a symptom wages and salaries arising from government employment never confuse them again tell me there s no price fixing going on here labor share there may be more here than meets the apparently they really do have economic concerns desire for wealth as such that is for the apparently i m out of the loop this goes all the way back to sumer in the third the point of maximum gain 2017 274 december 31 november 26 october 21 september 23 august 27 july 21 june 17 may 21 april 13 march 25 february 25 january 24 2016 318 december 26 november 20 october 30 september 27 august 29 july 17 june 30 may 24 april 30 march 30 february 30 january 25 2015 283 december 7 november 11 october 21 september 23 august 26 july 27 june 26 may 30 april 25 march 28 february 27 january 32 2014 374 december 25 november 25 october 26 september 30 august 34 july 35 june 32 may 34 april 33 march 35 february 28 january 37 2013 412 december 33 november 31 october 35 september 32 august 33 july 36 june 31 may 36 april 39 march 40 february 31 january 35 2012 476 december 38 november 35 october 51 september 41 august 35 july 39 june 37 may 31 april 38 march 36 february 44 january 51 2011 571 december 44 november 38 october 41 september 53 august 54 july 52 june 50 may 45 april 54 march 46 february 37 january 57 2010 361 december 51 november 43 october 47 september 43 august 35 july 39 june 31 may 9 april 8 march 12 february 23 january 20 2009 79 december 17 november 10 october 14 september 20 august 3 july 7 june 4 april 1 march 1 february 1 january 1 links the 12 pages pdf html scribd money as credit paul krugman john mason gavin kennedy crisis timeline 1 crisis timeline 2 statistical abstracts measuringworth bea economic accounts bls inflation jobs flow of funds debt st louis fed fred money stock 1947 58 economagic usgovernmentspending top tax rates recession dates corp taxes 2006 irs tax data pk sources historicalstatistics org historical charts perot charts mark wieczorek the secret economist econompic john williams sgs crystal bull aquinum s razor flavianopolis william f hummell ecometry the l curve businomics blog on banking crises cybereconomics tim duy like a father to me worthwhile canadian the skeptical optimist nextblog better of thought action the troublesome economist the candid blogger blended purple frozen arctic tundra truth addicts anon jbpeebles mayday books dredd blog dolor s rants the 40 year old freshman thinking on the margin redonomics broad oak unsettling economics irrational expectations theory2life prac spoiler tips vin s read more faq s image host a very nice menu www w3 schools bloogger help image test and t2 blogger sentral html color codes google translate link within a page supreme court jester dave ross 1 dave ross 2 organize your stuff interesting jim kardi teknomo numerical ignorance mental workout g scaled data g normalized data tufte data analysis arthurian website about me contact labels real is a calculation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1966 1970s growth 1986 2000 2013 revision 400k smoothing a call for better argument a little r n r accelerated repayment of debt accidental discoveries adjusting debt for inflation artish b is greater than a b h finte behavioral ec best put downs bullard s earthquake c d of wealth calculating labor share civ civilization coinage coping cost and productivity cost push cost push inflation credit efficiency crisis chronicles cycle of civilization debasement debt debt and context debt and inflation debt and recovery debt bulge debt good and bad debt is not credit debt productivity debt to gdp debt to gdp in comments def credit def debt def economic activity def financial cost def gdp def general equilibrium def inflation def inside money def investment def issue and reissue def laffer limit def outside money deflation demand pull inflation disarray dpd echoes economic forces economics v the economy eroc erosion of debt evolution of the excuse expectations factors failure s embrace fallacy of composition fcm fed policy federal spending feedback loops final spending financial cost financialization five words five digit years forget about debt fpi fred free banking era full disclosure fun with the mpc gang8 gds gold shortage gresham s law gross domestic spending growth rate calc growth phase growth historical revisionism hoarding hodrick prescott household debt hover craft how to pay for it humor because you might not know if i didn t say i couldn t sleep iceberg inflation introduction is it ego captain jerry says krugman laffer curve limits long and variable loops malaise matched set fekete math problems medium of account military spending milton friedman mmt money multiplier more debt than money is policy motives moving average new tools of policy non linear not only household debt oil parameters for debt pfi policy predicting recession price controls printing vs spending problem x productivity questions r reading and writing red and green reduction reviews scott sumner sequence 2 serfdom simulacron simulated evidence slack special report spreadsheeting stagflation standard deviation star trek stimulus sumner symmetry in deception taxes taylor rule the difference between debt and credit the economy is transaction the k r shift the long decline the supply side the tint knob they don t know timeline tongue in cheek tot ulc umic unsustainable urgency verdoorn waste fraud abuse withering shoots zoho the new arthurian economics copyright 2010 2018 arthur shipman showing posts with label fpi show all posts showing posts with label fpi show all posts friday august 30 2013 which one is not like the others earlier this week i showed the shocking decline of fixed private investment relative to total accumulated debt graph 1 fixed private investment relative to total debt it shows significant changes before the 1980 recession after the 1990 recession before the 2001 recession and toward the end of the 2007 2009 recession today we look at fixed private investment relative to components of the total debt graph 2 fixed private investment relative to nonfinancial debt it shows significant changes before the 1980 recession after the 1990 recession before the 2001 recession and toward the end of the 2007 2009 recession graph 3 fixed private investment relative to the publicly held part of federal debt it shows significant changes before the 1980 recession after the 1990 recession before the 2001 recession and toward the end of the 2007 2009 recession graph 4 fixed private investment relative to non federal non financial debt it shows significant changes before the 1980 recession after the 1990 recession before the 2001 recession and toward the end of the 2007 2009 recession graph 5 fixed private investment relative to household debt it shows significant changes before the 1980 recession after the 1990 recession before the 2001 recession and toward the end of the 2007 2009 recession graph 6 fixed private investment relative to financial debt it seems to show a trend change toward the end of the 2007 2009 recession which one is not like the others posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments labels fpi pfi thursday august 29 2013 log of real fixed private investment and trends hover the mouse over the graph to see the trend lines i sketched in graph 1 fixed private investment deflated log of it looks like investment growth trended at one rate right up to 1980 and at a slower rate thereafter i don t imagine i m the first guy to say that but i do want to point out that the growth of real gdp shows a similar slowdown right around 1980 of course it makes sense that if economic growth slowed in 1980 the driver of economic growth also slowed around that time it makes sense the thing is nobody says it no for example scott sumner says this growth was slowing almost everywhere in the 1970s and 1980s and this growth in us living standards slowed after 1973 after 1973 yeah about seven years after 1973 between the 1974 recession and the 1980 recession graph 1 shows fpi increasing faster than at any other time since 1960 growth was strong after the 1974 recession growth didn t slow then growth didn t slow until paul volcker suppressed inflation and disposed of the corpse of vigor posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments labels fpi pfi wednesday august 28 2013 just by eye continuing our look at fixed private investment and total debt the growth of fixed private investment peaks before the growth of total debt graph 1 fixed private investment blue and total credit market debt red on log scales the values are shown on a log scale to make growth rates visually evident investment the blue line appears to curve gradually upward until 1980 then trends upward at a slower pace on a straight rather than upcurving path debt the red line appears to curve gradually upward until around 1986 then trends upward at a slower pace on a path that displays little if any upward curve the upward curve of the blue line appears to run from 1960 to 1980 that of the red line from 1970 to near 1990 either or both of these upcurves might be related to the great inflation and they probably are but it is difficult by eye to imagine why inflation would appear first in the investment numbers and later in the debt numbers posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments labels fpi pfi tuesday august 27 2013 a barometer of growth a search for pfi at fred turned up plenty of results but only one containing the word investment purchasing power parity converted gdp per capita laspeyres derived from growth rates of consumption government consumption investment for finland i didn t go there that search also turned up one result containing the word private nonfarm private financial activities payroll employment i didn t go there it turned up no result containing the word fixed a search for fpi at fred brings you immediately to the fixed private investment graph there the notes tell us notes bea account code a007rc1 a guide to the national income and product accounts of the united states nipa http www bea gov national pdf nipaguid pdf at the nipaguid pdf a name that satisfies the 8 character limit of ms dos file names in case you haven t yet upgraded we find the phrase private fixed investment on page 5 and in a table on page 7 and on page 14 gross domestic investment 6 1 measures the total investment in the united states in fixed assets that is the structures equipment and software that are used in production and in inventories change in private inventories it is the sum of private fixed investment see 1 20 government fixed investment see 1 29 and change in private inventories 1 25 i quit looking for pfi at that point i like that definition it reminds me of something i once knew that change in inventory counts as part of investment that s an important bit of trivia which explains the s i thing people are always talking about not relevant to this post but worth remembering certainly there were no occurrences in the nipaguid of the phrase fixed private investment so what fred calls fpi and what bea calls pfi are the same thing i can talk of fixed private investment and private fixed investment interchangeably with impunity good because in a different pdf from bea or actually in chapter 6 of what looks like the same nipaguid but in a different file we find this private fixed investment pfi measures spending by private businesses nonprofit institutions and households on fixed assets in the u s economy fixed assets consist of structures equipment and software that are used in the production of goods and services pfi encompasses the creation of new productive assets the improvement of existing assets and the replacement of worn out or obsolete assets the pfi estimates serve as an indicator of the willingness of private businesses and nonprofit institutions to expand their production capacity and as an indicator of the demand for housing thus movements in pfi serve as a barometer of confidence in and support for future economic growth a barometer of growth i said that yesterday neither of those pdfs plays nicely with ctrl c cut and ctrl v paste operations this post resolves two issues first that pfi and fpi are two names for the same thing second what is measured by fred s fpi posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 10 comments labels fpi pfi monday august 26 2013 looks like a measure of the economy s performance yesterday i concluded so we see that when debt is relatively low economic growth or in this case fixed private investment is relatively high but when debt is relatively high investment doesn t run higher and sometimes it runs low so the next thing i want to see is fixed private investment relative to total debt graph 1 fixed private investment relative to total debt it looks like a measure of the economy s performance for the last 60 years it is posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments labels fpi pfi sunday august 25 2013 fixed private investment random eyes showed me fixed private investment relative to gdp graph 1 fixed private investment relative to gdp low in the early years then three humps in the middle years then a significant decline corresponding to the decline in total debt growth 1986 1992 then a couple high points that i don t recognize but the pattern reminded me of total debt growth so i compared the growth of fixed private investment to the growth of total debt graph 2 growth rates of fixed private investment blue and total debt red low together in the early years rising together humping together and declining together there even seems to be similarity in the years after 1990 though the red line rides a little higher on the blue definitely noticeable in the hump years 1970 1985 the blue peaks lead and the red peaks lag investment seems to spike up dragging debt along behind it but maybe that lag was related more to inflation than to investment for in the years before 1970 the lag is less obvious or maybe the debt humps were just smaller in the early years i can use a little multiplication to make the up and down variations in the red line bigger and then a little subtraction to bring the whole red line down and posi...
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