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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during February 2020;
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n new window bluesky avant toi 29 feb 2020 at 10 44 posted in varia comments off on avant toi exile 28 feb 2020 at 19 42 posted in varia comments off on exile margaret thatcher 28 feb 2020 at 18 14 posted in politics society comments off on margaret thatcher margaret thatcher väckte med sin nyliberala politik upprörda känslor i ur bildningsbyrån diskuterar yours truly och gunnela björk järnladyn och hennes intellektuella och politiska arv här kan du lyssna på programmet i sin helhet i sverige har vi idag en centerpartistisk partiledare med en meritlista som säkert skulle imponerat på thatcher ett axplock av vad fru lööf argumenterat och motionerat för under åren inför plattskatt lägre skatt för höginkomsttagare avskaffa lagen om anställningsskydd inskränk strejkrätten inför marknadshyror sälj ut svt och sr bygg ut kärnkraften och nej det här var inte timbros eller johan norbergs önskelista utan som sagt centerledarens share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky cdu hoffnung friedrich merz 28 feb 2020 at 15 41 posted in politics society comments off on cdu hoffnung friedrich merz vor 14 jahren soll friedrich merz seinen laptop am berliner ostbahnhof verloren haben doch der damalige unions fraktionsvize hatte glück ein obdachloser fand das gerät und gab es zurück nun erinnert er sich in der taz erzählt der heute 53 jährige nun was er und sein kumpel micha sahen als sie den laptop einschalteten er hoffte auf einen angemessenen finderlohn friedrich merz hatte eine andere idee enrico j verkaufte damals die obdachlosenzeitung straßenfeger der zeitungsverkauf im bahnhofsgebäude selbst ist verboten daher stand er regelmäßig auf dem parkplatz davor über den laptop sagt er heute ich hätte das ding auch auf dem schwarzmarkt verkaufen können da waren sämtliche daten der bundesregierung drauf stattdessen gaben er und kumpel micha das gerät beim bundesgrenzschutz ab der damals noch im bahnhof stationiert war als adresse hinterließ er die anschrift der damaligen obdachlosenhilfe vier wochen später bekam er laut eigener aussage von einer sozialarbeiterin als dank das neue buch von friedrich merz in die hand gedrückt der titel nur wer sich ändert wird bestehen vom ende der wohlstandsillusion kursbestimmung für unsere zukunft dazu die widmung vielen dank an den ehrlichen finder nicht das worauf enrico j gehofft hatte das fand ich echt total unverschämt ich habe das buch sofort in die spree geschmissen er wusste ja von der angegebenen adresse genau dass ich obdachlos war doch ihm war das nicht mal einen cent wert die welt econometrics the scientific illusion of an empirical failure 27 feb 2020 at 19 03 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on econometrics the scientific illusion of an empirical failure ed leamer s tantalus on the road to asymptopia is one of yours truly s favourite critiques of econometrics and for the benefit of those who are not versed in the econometric jargon this handy summary gives the gist of it in plain english most work in econometrics and regression analysis is made on the assumption that the researcher has a theoretical model that is true based on this belief of having a correct specification for an econometric model or running a regression one proceeds as if the only problem remaining to solve have to do with measurement and observation when things sound to good to be true they usually aren t and that goes for econometric wet dreams too the snag is as leamer convincingly argues that there is pretty little to support the perfect specification assumption looking around in social science and economics we don t find a single regression or econometric model that lives up to the standards set by the true theoretical model and there is pretty little that gives us reason to believe things will be different in the future to think that we are being able to construct a model where all relevant variables are included and correctly specify the functional relationships that exist between them is not only a belief without support but a belief impossible to support the theories we work with when building our econometric models are insufficient no matter what we study there are always some variables missing and we don t know the correct way to functionally specify the relationships between the variables we choose to put into our models every econometric model constructed is misspecified there are always an endless list of possible variables to include and endless possible ways to specify the relationships between them so every applied econometrician comes up with his own specification and parameter estimates the econometric holy grail of consistent and stable parameter values is nothing but a dream a rigorous application of econometric methods presupposes that the phenomena of our real world economies are ruled by stable causal relations between variables parameter values estimated in specific spatio temporal contexts are presupposed to be exportable to totally different contexts to warrant this assumption one however has to convincingly establish that the targeted acting causes are stable and invariant so that they maintain their parametric status after the bridging the endemic lack of predictive success of the econometric project indicates that this hope of finding fixed parameters is a hope for which there really is no other ground than hope itself the theoretical conditions that have to be fulfilled for regression analysis and econometrics to really work are nowhere even closely met in reality making outlandish statistical assumptions does not provide a solid ground for doing relevant social science and economics although regression analysis and econometrics have become the most used quantitative methods in social sciences and economics today it s still a fact that the inferences made from them are strictly seen invalid econometrics is basically a deductive method given the assumptions such as manipulability transitivity separability additivity linearity etc it delivers deductive inferences the problem of course is that we will never completely know when the assumptions are right conclusions can only be as certain as their premises that also applies to econometrics share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky how economists reshaped the world 27 feb 2020 at 17 43 posted in economics comments off on how economists reshaped the world to yours truly the real value of appelbaum s meticulously researched history of how economists have come to increasingly influence public policies in modern societies is that it shows how fundamentally ideological economics is of course you never hear anyone at our seminars telling the lecturer that the assumptions on which his models are built are only made for ideological reasons but that does not necessarily mean whether on the surface or not that academic analysis is judged on its merits what it means is that we have a catechism that no one dares to question and that catechism has become hegemonic for particular reasons one of which may very well be of an ideological nature the models and assumptions mainstream economics builds on standardly have a neoliberal or market friendly bias i guess that is also one of the ideological reasons those models and theories are so dear to many economists the alternative is to make honesty and humility prerequisites for membership in the community of economists the easy part is to challenge the pretenders the hard part is to say no when government officials look to economists for an answer to a normative question scientific authority never conveys moral authority no economist has a privileged insight into questions of right and wrong and none deserves a special say in fundamental decisions about how society should operate economists who argue otherwise and exert undue influence in public debates about right and wrong should be exposed for what they are frauds paul romer share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky and yet the menace of the years shall find me unafraid 26 feb 2020 at 17 36 posted in varia comments off on and yet the menace of the years shall find me unafraid a great poem it helped one of the greatest men that has walked this earth keep hope alive during twenty seven years in prison long live his unconquerable soul via con me 26 feb 2020 at 17 08 posted in varia comments off on via con me non perderti per niente al mondo lo spettacolo di arte varia di un uomo innamorato di te amen hayr sourp 25 feb 2020 at 17 27 posted in varia comments off on amen hayr sourp e penso a te 25 feb 2020 at 16 35 posted in varia comments off on e penso a te adorno on the philosophy of alternative facts 25 feb 2020 at 16 03 posted in politics society 1 comment something repellent clings to the lie and though the consciousness of this was indeed beaten into one with the old whip this simultaneously said something about the master of the dungeon the mistake lies in all too much honesty whoever lies is ashamed because in every lie they must experience what is degrading in the existing state of the world such shame saps the energy of the lies of those who are more subtly organized they do it badly and only thereby does the lie come to be genuinely unmoral for others it suggests the former think the latter are stupid and serves to express disrespect among today s cunning practitioners the lie has long since lost its honest function of concealing something real no one believes anyone everyone is in the loop lies are told only when someone wants others to know they aren t important that the former does not need the latter and does not care what they think today the lie once a liberal means of communication has become one of the techniques of brazenness with whose help every single person spreads the iciness in whose shelter they thrive theodor w adorno alternative facts people like trump erdogan orban and putin sure make reading minima moralia a worthwhile effort share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky econometrics a crooked path from cause to effect 24 feb 2020 at 19 48 posted in statistics econometrics 1 comment in their book mastering metrics the path from cause to effect joshua angrist and jörn steffen pischke write our first line of attack on the causality problem is a randomized experiment often called a randomized trial in a randomized trial researchers change the causal variables of interest for a group selected using something like a coin toss by changing circumstances randomly we make it highly likely that the variable of interest is unrelated to the many other factors determining the outcomes we want to study random assignment isn t the same as holding everything else fixed but it has the same effect random manipulation makes other things equal hold on average across the groups that did and did not experience manipulation as we explain on average is usually good enough angrist and pischke may dream of the trials we d like to do and consider the notion of an ideal experiment something that disciplines our approach to econometric research but to maintain that on average is usually good enough is an allegation that in my view is rather unwarranted and for many reasons first of all it amounts to nothing but hand waving to simpliciter assume without argumentation that it is tenable to treat social agents and relations as homogeneous and interchangeable entities randomization is used to basically allow the econometrician to treat the population as consisting of interchangeable and homogeneous groups treatment and control the regression models one arrives at by using randomized trials tell us the average effect that variations in variable x has on the outcome variable y without having to explicitly control for effects of other explanatory variables r s t etc etc everything is assumed to be essentially equal except the values taken by variable x in a usual regression context one would apply an ordinary least squares estimator ols in trying to get an unbiased and consistent estimate y α βx ε where α is a constant intercept β a constant structural causal effect and ε an error term the problem here is that although we may get an estimate of the true average causal effect this may mask important heterogeneous effects of a causal nature although we get the right answer of the average causal effect being 0 those who are treated x 1 may have causal effects equal to 100 and those not treated x 0 may have causal effects equal to 100 contemplating being treated or not most people would probably be interested in knowing about this underlying heterogeneity and would not consider the ols average effect particularly enlightening limiting model assumptions in economic science always have to be closely examined since if we are going to be able to show that the mechanisms or causes that we isolate and handle in our models are stable in the sense that they do not change when we export them to our target systems we have to be able to show that they do not only hold under ceteris paribus conditions and a fortiori only are of limited value to our understanding explanations or predictions of real economic systems real world social systems are not governed by stable causal mechanisms or capacities the kinds of laws and relations that econometrics has established are laws and relations about entities in models that presuppose causal mechanisms being atomistic and additive when causal mechanisms operate in real world social target systems they only do it in ever changing and unstable combinations where the whole is more than a mechanical sum of parts if economic regularities obtain they do it as a rule only because we engineered them for that purpose outside man made nomological machines they are rare or even non existent unfortunately that also makes most of the achievements of econometrics as most of the contemporary endeavours of mainstream economic theoretical modelling rather useless remember that a model is not the truth it is a lie to help you get your point across and in the case of modeling economic risk your model is a lie about others who are probably lying themselves and what s worse than a simple lie a complicated lie sam l savage the flaw of averages when joshua angrist and jörn steffen pischke in an earlier article of theirs the credibility revolution in empirical economics how better research design is taking the con out of econometrics journal of economic perspectives 2010 say that anyone who makes a living out of data analysis probably believes that heterogeneity is limited enough that the well understood past can be informative about the future i really think they underestimate the heterogeneity problem it does not just turn up as an ex...
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