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description=15 posts published by Lars Syll during October 2012;

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x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky saving doesn t finance investment 28 oct 2012 at 17 18 posted in economics 3 comments an act of individual saving means so to speak a decision not to have dinner to day but it does not necessitate a decision to have dinner or to buy a pair of boots a week hence or a year hence or to consume any specified thing at any specified date thus it depresses the business of preparing to day s dinner without stimulating the business of making ready for some future act of consumption it is not a substitution of future consumption demand for present consumption demand it is a net diminution of such demand if saving consisted not merely in abstaining from present consumption but in placing simultaneously a specific order for future consumption the effect might indeed be different for in that case the expectation of some future yield from investment would be improved and the resources released from preparing for present consumption could be turned over to preparing for the future consumption in any case however an individual decision to save does not in actual fact involve the placing of any specific forward order for consumption but merely the cancellation of a present order thus since the expectation of consumption is the only raison d être of employment there should be nothing paradoxical in the conclusion that a diminished propensity to consume has ceteris paribus a depressing effect on employment the trouble arises therefore because the act of saving implies not a substitution for present consumption of some specific additional consumption which requires for its preparation just as much immediate economic activity as would have been required by present consumption equal in value to the sum saved but a desire for wealth as such that is for a potentiality of consuming an unspecified article at an unspecified time the absurd though almost universal idea that an act of individual saving is just as good for effective demand as an act of individual consumption has been fostered by the fallacy much more specious than the conclusion derived from it that an increased desire to hold wealth being much the same thing as an increased desire to hold investments must by increasing the demand for investments provide a stimulus to their production so that current investment is promoted by individual saving to the same extent as present consumption is diminished j m keynes general theory share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky smart chicago professor steven levitt not so smart after all 28 oct 2012 at 16 16 posted in economics statistics econometrics 3 comments in an interview not so long ago steven levitt mr freakonomics answered the question how he could tell the difference between a smart person and a not so smart person well one good indicator of a person who s not so smart is if they vote in a presidential election because they think their vote might actually decide which candidate wins there has never been and there never will be a vote cast in a presidential election that could possibly be decisive statistics professor andrew gelman aptly retorted i have no problem if levitt wants to argue that it doesn t matter who wins the election i disagree with him given the evidence that the positions of the democratic and republicans in the u s are farther apart on economic issues than are left and right groupings in many other countries but levitt can make that argument if he wants to and i have no problem if levitt wants to say that for a one in a million or one in ten million chance he doesn t think it s worth it to vote but i don t think levitt is making sense when he writes that there never will be a vote cast in a presidential election that could possibly be decisive a low probability is not a zero probability this confuses a lot of people so i can understand levitt missing the point but it s important just cos you don t know whether a particular vote was decisive that doesn t mean a single vote can t be decisive or to put it another way when he says virtually impossible i d say 1 in a million to 1 in 10 million if you live in a swing state share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky trickle down economics 27 oct 2012 at 22 24 posted in varia comments off on trickle down economics share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky paul krugman the is lm organ grinder 27 oct 2012 at 19 06 posted in economics 3 comments howard davies has an interesting article on project syndicate about the shortcomings of modern mainstream economics but what of the core disciplines of economics and finance themselves can nothing be done to make them more useful in explaining the world as it is rather than as it is assumed to be in their stylized models george soros has put generous funding behind the institute for new economic thinking inet the bank of england has also tried to stimulate fresh ideas the proceedings of a conference that it organized earlier this year have now been edited under the provocative title what s the use of economics some of the recommendations that emerged from that conference are straightforward and concrete for example there should be more teaching of economic history many conference participants agreed that the study of economics should be set in a broader political context with greater emphasis on the role of institutions but it is not clear that a majority of the profession yet accepts even these modest proposals the so called chicago school has mounted a robust defense of its rational expectations based approach rejecting the notion that a rethink is required the nobel laureate economist robert lucas has argued that the crisis was not predicted because economic theory predicts that such events cannot be predicted so all is well and there is disturbing evidence that news of the crisis has not yet reached some economics departments the university of chicago s eugene fama has described the notion that finance theory was at fault as a fantasy and argues that financial markets and financial institutions were casualties rather than causes of the recession and the efficient market hypothesis that he championed cannot be blamed because most investing is done by active managers who don t believe that markets are efficient this amounts to what we might call an irrelevance defense finance theorists cannot be held responsible since no one in the real world pays attention to them great critique and you would of course expect even is lm organ grinder paul krugman to concur but no instead krugman complains that the truth is that basic macroeconomics the stuff that is still taught in textbooks has been very very useful in this crisis the problem is that half the profession and most policy makers turned their back on this kind of economics what is the magic silver bullet that davies missed good old is lm of course i m starting to get rather tired of pk s endless tirades about the splendour of the hicksian invention why well read this for a starter i accordingly conclude that the only way in which is lm analysis usefully survives as anything more than a classroom gadget to be superseded later on by something better is in application to a particular kind of causal analysis where the use of equilibrium methods even a drastic use of equilibrium methods is not inappropriate i have deliberately interpreted the equilibrium concept to be used in such analysis in a very stringent manner some would say a pedantic manner not because i want to tell the applied economist who uses such methods that he is in fact committing himself to anything which must appear to him to be so ridiculous but because i want to ask him to try to assure himself that the divergences between reality and the theoretical model which he is using to explain it are no more than divergences which he is entitled to overlook i am quite prepared to believe that there are cases where he is entitled to overlook them but the issue is one which needs to be faced in each case when one turns to questions of policy looking toward the future instead of the past the use of equilibrium methods is still more suspect for one cannot prescribe policy without considering at least the possibility that policy may be changed there can be no change of policy if everything is to go on as expected if the economy is to remain in what however approximately may be regarded as its existing equilibrium it may be hoped that after the change in policy the economy will somehow at some time in the future settle into what may be regarded in the same sense as a new equilibrium but there must necessarily be a stage before that equilibrium is reached i have paid no attention in this article to another weakness of is lm analysis of which i am fully aware for it is a weakness which it shares with general theory itself it is well known that in later developments of keynesian theory the long term rate of interest which does figure excessively in keynes own presentation and is presumably represented by the r of the diagram has been taken down a peg from the position it appeared to occupy in keynes we now know that it is not enough to think of the rate of interest as the single link between the financial and industrial sectors of the economy for that really implies that a borrower can borrow as much as he likes at the rate of interest charged no attention being paid to the security offered as soon as one attends to questions of security and to the financial intermediation that arises out of them it becomes apparent that the dichotomy between the two curves of the is lm diagram must not be pressed too hard john hicks is lm an explanation journal of post keynesian economics 1980 share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky ramberg visade upp facklig vinstförespråkare i all sin torftighet 27 oct 2012 at 16 03 posted in politics society 1 comment det här landet är tyvärr fullt av slöa slappa lata och loja journalister men det finns undantag ett av dem är tomas ramberg i ekots lördagsintervju lät han aldrig kommunals ordförande annelie nordström komma undan med de vanliga undanglidningsmanövrerna ramberg hade fått vittring och släppte aldrig bytet här var annars ett gyllene tillfälle att klart och tydligt tala om att kommunal nu vill se till att undanröja möjligheterna för vinstdrivande bolag att verka inom vård omsorg och skola men så blev det inte nordström svajade istället som vanligt skattefinansierade vinstdrivande företag ska enligt nordström få finnas kvar inom nämnda sektorer i stället ska man fortsätta ställa större krav på företagen men detta har vi ju hört förr löst och till intet förpliktigande tal det hade varit bättre om fackordföranden klart och tydligt deklarerat att vinstdrivande bolag inom vård omsorg och skola inte hör hemma i ett svenskt välfärdssamhälle det är bara att lyssna och njuta av intervjun naknare än så här i all sin torftighet har man sällan hört en ledande facklig förespråkare för vinstintressen i skattefinansierade välfärdsföretag share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky econometrics with gretl 27 oct 2012 at 12 04 posted in statistics econometrics 1 comment thanks to allin cottrell and riccardo lucchetti we today have access to a perfect tool for doing and teaching econometrics gretl and best of all it is totally free professor lee adkins now has a new version 1 041 of his gretl manual to hill griffith lim s principles of econometrics 4th ed 2011 in this new version adkins shows the full power of the scripting language of gretl called hansl there is also new material on monte carlo simulation loop constructions etc that certainly will please the more advanced users but as in earlier versions adkins also amply shows how increadibly easy it is to operate this statistics econometrics program gretl is up to the tasks you may have so why spend money on expensive commercial programs adkins manual can be downloadd here so just go ahead i promise with a program like gretl and a manual like this even econometrics can be fun share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky s vinstförslag ytterligare ett i raden av politiska självmål 26 oct 2012 at 23 26 posted in politics society 2 comments det är synd att partiledningen i s inte lyssnar på klokt folk inom de egna leden för de finns s kvinnornas ordförande lena sommestad skrev t ex nyligen så här i en principiellt viktig och intressant artikel på sin blogg för snart två år sedan i februari 2011 debatterade jag stockholms skolmarknad med skolborgarrådet lotta edholm i agenda jag hävdade att den kommersiella skolmarknaden skapade segregation och sämre skolresultat min fråga till lotta edholm den gånger var marknad i skolan till vilket pris i dagens dn presenteras nu de förödande resultaten av lotta edholms skolpolitik skillnaderna mellan skolorna växer och sämst går det för skolor i fattiga områden dn stockholm papperstidningen lotta edholm ställs till svars med rätta verkligheten talar nu ett tydligt språk den kommersialiserade skolan sviker de elever som allra bäst behöver skolan jag menar att det är hög tid att ta strid för de värden som vi vill ska bära svensk skola för ett par veckor sedan ställde sig uppsala arbetarekommun bakom en motion till socialdemokraternas partikongress med kravet på att vinst inte längre ska accepteras som det övergripande målet för skolverksamhet det centrala argumentet för detta är skolans centrala roll i ett samhälle präglat av demokrati jämlikhet och tankens frihet idag skiktas samhället inte bara efter klasslinjer utan också efter etnicitet forskning har visat hur den kommersiella skolmarknaden resulterar i ökad segregation efter etniska linjer det är viktigt att socialdemokraterna nu gör klart vilka värden som vi vill ska bära vårt samhälle skolpolitiken formar framtiden om vi vill ha en stark demokrati och jämlika livschanser så måste vinstintressena bort från skolan share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky next page recent posts arbetslöshetsiffran som styr den ekonomiska politiken 50 år efter studenten personal finding the late student stuff love s secret stein s paradox a lesson on precision and unbiasedness audioholic summer research ett välförtjänt bottenrekord arbetslösheten inte statsskulden är problemet how credible is the credibility revolution in econometrics randomness and representativeness are not the same lönebildning och arbetslöshet i sverige nancy cartwright s contributions to the 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