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to look for banks balance sheets in the historical statistics maybe i can put some numbers together that s all for now posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments saturday march 26 2016 the exquisite tragedies of hinterland i know you don t come here for my good taste in television shows but i have no economics today so i thought i might put the space to use a different way hinterland cop show on netflix they have season one four episodes each about an hour and a half long and they re getting season two on 1 april i can t wait i found the show last fall a couple months before i retired watched all four episodes in a couple nights loved it for a while there i would watch an episode again every weekend while my wife was shopping since retiring i try to watch an episode every day here s how the wife described the stories even the criminals are victims the stories are tragedies magnificent exquisite tragedies episode four i think rivals romeo and juliet episode one is better you know the british cop hierarchy detective chief inspector dci on top detective inspector di next then detective sergeant ds and detective constable dc at least that s what i figured out since getting netflix hinterland is set in wales west wales watching the show i feel like i ve been let in on a well kept secret oh the camera work is good you know those grand views in almost every scene of the lord of the rings movies well it s something like that only not overdone you watch dci mathias driving to a crime scene and his car is tiny on the screen sit back and enjoy the view best part the eyes the eyes of dci mathias and the eyes of di mared rhys mathias walks up to a crime scene stops and looks at everything he s inspecting he s detecting he s doing his job then he walks into the crime scene and stops to inspect and detect some more i don t know if it s the directing or the acting or the writing or dumb luck or what but it s perfect di rhys has great eyes too they can be stone cold when she s questioning a suspect who has earned it but at other times often rhys will show empathy for victim and suspect alike you never saw such empathy in a cop show i think there s less dialog in hinterland than most other shows another reason i like it many things get done with the eyes or the slightest nod of the head my favorite scene that s easy in the opening moments of the first episode we see dci mathias out for a jog returning home from a jog he approaches his caravan the little trailer he calls home the camera changes from outside the caravan to inside we see mathias walk up to the front entrance turn and sit down hard the whole trailer shakes i laugh every time there s more but let me summarize hinterland makes me wish i was welsh posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments friday march 25 2016 when would you know not happy with steve keen s spreadsheet as noted yesterday he predicts recession and shows it in a spreadsheet but in the spreadsheet he makes recession happen by suddenly changing the growth rate of credit now that s probably practical and realistic and it sounds exactly like what happened back in 07 but it didn t happen because somebody changed a number on a spreadsheet it happened in the economy you could argue that people were looking at their spreadsheets and playing with the numbers and suddenly said to themselves hm this doesn t look good i m going to have to cut my borrowing and unload some debt maybe that is what happened something like that but i always separate the decision making process from the economy the decisions arise within us in response to economic circumstance sure but within us and the decisions we make emerge from us from our nature human nature and i don t think it s good for economists to muck with human nature you can t change human nature that s what was wrong with from each according to his abilities to each according to his needs if you want to change the economy you have to do it without trying to change human nature you have to induce people to make the decisions you want them to make you have to create the economic circumstance that makes people want to do the things you want them to do that s what economic policy is all about if you re not good at it you end up making a circumstance in which people are induced to do things out of fear and desperation the whole trick is to understand the economy anyway the sudden change in the growth of credit the one that had an effect on the economy it wasn t a change in a spreadsheet it wasn t a change in plans it was a change in actions it was the sudden cutback in borrowing in the economy but when would you know how soon can you see it happening graph 1 private debt quarterly data percent change from previous quarter there is no hint on this graph as of 2007 q2 what would happen over the next year how far to the right would you have to look on this graph before you had an idea what was happening edit 25 march changed the economic circumstance that makes people want to do what you want them to do to the economic circumstance that makes people want to do the things you want them to do posted by the arthurian at 6 50 am 1 comments thursday march 24 2016 the australian recession of 2017 disappointing almost came in my jeans when i saw the link to steve keen s get ready for an australian recession by 2017 keen claims to be one of the few who says of the crisis that he saw it coming and now he s predicting recession next year this has to be worth a click in australia recession in australia keen writes for the last 25 years australian politicians of both liberal and labor hue have been able to brag that under their stewardship australia has avoided a recession those bragging rights are about to come to an end during the life of the next parliament and probably by 2017 australia will fall into a prolonged recession that s it except for the graph oh and down under the graph he writes click here to read the rest of this post and here to download the excel file showing the link between a slowdown in the rate of growth of debt and a recession he can do it in an excel file oh oh excuse me while i go change my jeans according to recognition lag at investopedia followers of the market are familiar with the phenomenon of when economists signal a recession in the economy several months after it has actually begun well yeah if a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth it s gonna be six months at least from when a recession starts to when it is recognized a recession doesn t exist until six months after it starts couple weeks back i showed a version of my debt per dollar graph where i extended the 2008 2015 trend out to 2030 i said we are at the bottom now ready to go up i also said something like i don t know where the top is but here is steve keen saying he knows where the top is and he knows a year ahead of time instead of six months after most interesting in the rest of the post keen says this recession has been set up by the sidestep both parties have used to avoid downturns for the past quarter century whenever a crisis has loomed they ve avoided recession by encouraging the private sector to borrow and spend policy encourages private borrowing keen thinks like i think he says this credit sidestep has worked because the extra debt financed expenditure lifted aggregate demand and income well above what it would have been in the absence of a debt binge yup unfortunately for australia s next prime minister there are two catches to this trick the obvious catch is that getting that much extra demand out of credit necessarily increases debt much faster than it increases income yes and the bigger the existing debt the more it costs to maintain the more it costs the more extra demand out of credit it takes to offset the cost as i have it the bigger the debt accumulation the faster debt must grow in order to lift aggregate demand and income keen the less obvious catch is that when debt is at stratospheric levels that apply in australia today total demand falls even if the debt ratio merely stabilises what oh wait if nominal gdp grows this year at the 2 8 per cent rate it has averaged for the last five years then gdp in 2016 will be roughly 1 634 billion if private debt continues to grow at its average rate of 6 9 per cent per year it will reach 3 414 billion an increase of 220 billion over the year okay but then what about 2017 if private debt grows at the same rate as gdp itself so that the debt ratio stabilises what if it does the sum of gdp and new private borrowing will be 4 3 per cent less than the year before yeah and this is the inevitable debt crunch coming australia s way but conventional economists are oblivious to this danger because they ve brainwashed themselves to ignore private debt as just a pure redistribution yeah i know but just because it is inevitable doesn t mean it is going to happen in 2017 i don t understand how keen comes up with that particular date the day of reckoning can be delayed by encouraging yet more private borrowing yeah i know as keen said up top whenever a crisis has loomed they ve avoided recession by encouraging the private sector to borrow and spend they have delayed the day of reckoning so why won t that trick work again in 2017 the day of reckoning can be delayed by encouraging yet more private borrowing which the rba can attempt to do by cutting interest rates and the government can reduce the crunch by running a large budget deficit but these are likely to happen after a crisis rather than before it because our reserve bank and our politicians are as oblivious to the dangers of private debt today as bernanke was back in 2007 yeah no yeah those solutions are likely to happen after a crisis rather than before it but that doesn t answer the question how does keen know or why does keen think that 2017 is the year of recession that s what i want to know here s his conclusion the 2016 election could be a good one to lose could be that s it well that s a little disappointing steve the first time i read his post i didn t have all the questions i heard keen telling me what i thought he was saying instead of what he was actually saying whatever i do that a lot i went to his excel file looking for a sim that shows the cost of debt accumulating so much that the money left over to buy gdp forces us to buy a smaller gdp than the year before this is conceptually magnificent if income drains out of circulation to the point that there s just not enough left to buy a gdp as big as last year s gdp that is excruciatingly clear evidence of the cost of finance causing recession wow so i worked thru keen s excel sheet carefully to see what he was thinking keen uses a constant rate for gdp growth and a constant rate for credit growth and a different number for the final credit growth rate that final number is a low one 2 8 instead of 6 9 the same as the rate of gdp growth granted this is exactly what keen described i quoted him above and given those numbers credit growth drops like crazy in the final year the nominal growth rate number on the spreadsheet goes negative and you know what that means recession you have to think like i think or like keen look at the money and look at the numbers don t get distracted by oil or by things people say or all the other realities of life to my way of thinking keen s analysis is satisfying except he doesn t explain the sudden change in the growth of credit he doesn t account for the one thing that i needed to know more than a little disappointing but he has given me something to think about here s a picture of keen s spreadsheet his sheet ends in 2017 if you look at the credit growth row fifth from the bottom the amounts are 180 in 2013 then 193 206 and 220 in 2016 and then all of a sudden 96 in 2017 that s the change that gives us a recession in keen s spreadsheet world that s the sudden drop that makes the numbers negative in the pink cells but he got the sudden drop because for the year 2017 he used the final credit growth rate instead of the nominal credit growth rate those two are up near the top of his spreadsheet i don t have trouble with the arithmetic i understand what he s doing here he s showing us that if the growth of credit were to suddenly drop from its usual level down to the level of the gdp growth rate the result would be a sudden drop in the nominal growth rate so severe that we end up in recession it s an excellent lesson but it doesn t explain why he says during the life of the next parliament and probably by 2017 australia will fall into a prolonged recession i understand that excessive debt is a problem i don t understand why keen thinks we get a recession in 2017 posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments wednesday march 23 2016 recommended reading ancient rome how maritime insurance built ancient rome at priceonomics i thought it was a bit long actually but it paints a picture of the ancient world as far more financially developed than you might have thought posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments tuesday march 22 2016 scattered thoughts on the private to public p2p debt ratio if i take tcmdo debt all sectors debt securities and loans liability level and subtract out the federal portion of that debt i m left with something i call the non federal debt if i take the non federal debt and look at it relative to the federal i get the red line in this graph graph 1 the private to public debt ratio red and the growth rate of rgdp blue the red is the same data i looked at twice recently but only the fred part this time so it starts after world war two instead of during world war one sigh also the data frequency is semiannual instead of quarterly because spoiler alert i m going to show a scatterplot and it turns out that quarterly end of period is not the same as quarterly sigh the blue line is inflation adjusted gdp the so called real gdp percent change from year ago semiannual and in case you missed it blue the scatterplot caught my eye graph 2 the scatterplot version of the previous graph with the debt ratio on the x axis and the rgdp growth rate on the y axis what caught my eye is this on the left the dots fit themselves pretty well to an up and down pattern on the right the dots fit themselves mostly to a left and right pattern and in the middle there s just a jumble of dots that jumble is mostly between 3¼ and 5¼ on the x axis but if you look most of the activity of the red line on graph 1 is between 3 25 and 5 25 on the vertical axis graph 3 showing the activity zone of the red line in other words there is a big cluster of dots there on the one graph because that s mostly where the red line is on the other for the record the activity zone is too high if the red line ran mostly below the 3 25 level instead of mostly above it our economy would be in a lot better shape but that s neither here nor there i guess you can see that the red line is mostly between the two...
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