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use taxation to make different things profitable use it to make some things more profitable and other things less profitable for example the existing business income tax favors bigness so if things go their way a business can grow like crazy that s how you get giants like microsoft and google and the too big to fail banks and then we have anti trust because sometimes we seem to think some companies are too big but it would be much more effective just to change the tax system we could redesign the business tax to favor small business instead for example but it would be better to make the tax so it favors no one by size let walmart compete on equal footing with mom and pop posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 5 comments thursday may 24 2012 jobs you think jobs is the problem okay but it s our problem a problem for people it s not a problem for the economy if you want jobs from the economy you have to give the economy what it wants of course everybody thinks they know what the economy wants to cut the growth of government spending that s not it and now to ruin a perfectly good brief statement let me explicitly point out that i am not saying we must expand the growth of government spending i am not saying we should cut it and i am not saying we should expand it what i m saying is the size of government is not the problem the spending of government is not the problem the debt of government is not the problem the government is not the problem i m saying we should stop talking about the government and focus on the problem excessive private debt is the problem we need to wipe out that debt private debt before life as we know it ends like a game of monopoly posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 8 comments wednesday may 23 2012 holy crap for your shuddering pleasure glimpses into the logic and literacy of gina aveni at conservative daily news john maynard keynes is the author of keynesian economics who was both an investor and economist of his time keynesian economics stemmed from ideas that have taken a toll on the american economy keynes was opposed to say s law which states that supply creates demand keynes believed the opposite output determined demand posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments tuesday may 22 2012 gunnar tomasson from gang8 i have long been persuaded that we will ultimately run into a stonewall with our debt dilemma and how to handle it the solution so far has been to let the less well placed individuals of society bear the burden this is the austerity programs that are imposed and it is getting us nowhere we are cutting down the economies through austerity programs we are cutting down the welfare system we are cutting down health and education and so on this reduces and cuts out purchasing power from the economy and the purchasing power is what keeps the wheels of industry going and this we have seen it playing out in europe now where they have taken steps one after another and they basically have not identified the problem and if you have not identified the problem and you cannot do that with modern monetary economics when you cannot identify your problem you cannot design a solution for it you must know what your are talking about and they don t you have a system overburdened with debt and the solution cannot be to add more debt to it posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 4 comments monday may 21 2012 liquidity trap found this by accident source introductory microeconomics and macroeconomics by tr jain vk ohri i can duplicate that graph dunno about the interest rates though posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments sunday may 20 2012 i want all of it from the role of monetary policy 17 page pdf by milton friedman accordingly the authority increases the rate of monetary growth this will be expansionary by making nominal cash balances higher than people desire it will tend initially to lower interest rates and in this and other ways to stimulate spending cash balances higher than people desire is that the problem really we have too much money and we don t like that so we spend the money just to get rid of it really i don t see it posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 6 comments saturday may 19 2012 interesting marcus nunes alternative view of fed policy since the 1960s the main difference between the two doctrines is not the change in the fed s responsiveness to inflation as argued by taylor bernanke or farmer but the changed responsiveness to aggregate demand or nominal income growth strong argument i think posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments wednesday may 16 2012 a fred browser after you edit a fred graph in a row of text above the graph are some options including link to the graph no matter how complex your graph the url is always short and the filename part is never in my experience more than three characters that three character simplicity amazed me i wrote to the fred webmaster about it and mr essig offered this brief explanation the short links are generated from a sequence with a base of 62 characters i e a z a z 0 9 instead of the normal 10 numeric characters i e 0 9 well after that it was obvious the three digit sequence is just a number in other words when you create one of those links to a fred graph fred gives the thing a number and saves the info needed to create that same graph again later the three character sequence is just a number so why can t i pick a number at random and look at that fred graph well i can t because i don t have the ability to write the code to make it happen but my son jerry can i described the idea to him and before i knew it he was back to me with a link to try and this email i m not totally sure what you had in mind in terms of integrating it with your site but here you go this is two html pages one has the two frames on it the other is the nav bar which goes inside the top frame it sets the page in the bottom frame to be some fred graph all of the logic is in javascript no php or anything but it s a little confusing because of all of the frames and the javascript we can talk more about it anyway here it is well i spent a few days with it off and on trying to put something in the sidebar that would access the fred graph navbar combo then i went back to jerry okay i give up i can t even keep up with the posting what i have in mind is this the user clicks a button or something in my sidebar to activate your fred browser but the first call from this button is to a graph at random then with your prev next options the user can look at that random area i thought people might find this worth trying more than once jerry got back to me just a few hours later with a new link that picks one of those base 62 numbers at random and opens up that fred graph all that was left for me to do was stick the thing in the sidebar and write this post not bad i really like the idea of accessing that base 62 list of graphs that fred users have created it offers a peek at what other people have been working on and it gives me a look at data series and data relationships i ve not seen before so i want to thank my son for developing the fred browser you can find the link on my sidebar under the title random eyes just click the text below that title to open up the navbar and a fred graph at random oh by the way i want to repeat something jerry said the other day one thing i wonder about i don t know if it s a serious concern or not maybe a more prominent attribution to fred in the top bar might be appropriate i could change the fred to st louis fed or something yeah thanks jerry and thank you fred enjoy posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 9 comments tuesday may 15 2012 there is a difference i think i heard on the news the other day that obama wants to save people as much as 3000 per year by refinancing their debt the thing of it is refinancing postpones the payments but does not reduce the debt that s why it is ineffective policy from naturalnews com iceland forgives mortgage debt to save its economy by j d heyes it s probably not a concept that most u s banks and lawmakers want to think about but the fact is iceland s economy has grown by leaps and bounds since the government there implemented widespread debt forgiveness for many of its citizens there is a difference between refinance and forgiveness posted by the arthurian at 8 52 pm 13 comments real and nominal debt your turn in the may 9th post i introduced two different calculations for inflation adjustment of number series that are stocks rather than flows i worked out the art2 calc with an example on the 14th but i had some problem with the art1 calc the art2 uses a base year just as the usual inflation adjustment does i used the final year as the base year but i could have picked any year the art1 is different it has a floating or flying base each year s number is properly adjusted for that year the current addition to debt remains in current dollars but the prior years debt is adjusted and expressed in those same current dollars i don t mean to beat a dead horse but the difference between the two calculations is significant to create the inflation adjusted numbers behind graph 4 in yesterday s post i used the art2 adjustment on the numerator and the surreal adjustment on the denominator i think i could create the same numbers using the art1 adjustment on the numerator and no inflation adjustment on the denominator i have not done it and i could be wrong but i m pretty sure that s how it works if anybody wants to give it a try see also diy econ debtors and inflation by ohm at bread and butter ohm looks at the big misconception out there that the problems of debt overhang can be solved by creating inflation and the myth that inflation is always good for a debtor posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments labels 7 debt and inflation monday may 14 2012 real and nominal debt an example in response to my the inflation adjustment of debt clonal replied in part you may also want to look at scott fullwiler s presentation what should economists have learned from the crisis which for some reason opens with a picture of a naked guy doing math at the blackboard took me a few days to get to it that debt and inflation series really took a lot of time but i finally did the presentation is done in prezi a service i ve not seen before it was pretty easy to view the presentation intuitive not bad though there did seen to be a lot of zooming in and zooming out i even turned on my speakers so i could hear it as well as see it but there was no audio to be heard and since it s a presentation a sequence of images not a body of text there was nothing to read and follow so i m not really sure what the point of the thing was i don t really think it had much to do with the inflation adjustment of debt but i did find one graph in it that brought me back to that topic source rob parenteau via scott fullwiler see that flat spot there from 1965 to 1985 it corresponds pretty well with the great inflation of 1965 1984 corresponds very well actually thanks clonal i think the ratio of debt to income shown on that graph was influenced by the inflation of those years i think i can use my inflation adjustment calculations developed in the debt and inflation series to see the extent of that influence first duplicate the graph using fred data for household debt as a percent of disposable income graph 2 household debt relative to disposable income cmdebt is household credit market debt outstanding and dpi is disposable personal income graph 2 continues into 2012 graph 1 stops about six years earlier and lacks the tip of the peak and decline other than that the two graphs show similar patterns increase before the great inflation flat during and increase again after that inflationary era i thought i would use the art1 inflation adjustment from mine of may 9th for this post but i got far enough with that to have second thoughts i think the art1 has a flying base not a single year base i don t think it is compatible with the surreal inflation adjustment so i ll use art2 instead taking the most recent year as the base graph 3 to make this adjustment i need the debt numbers and a price series i wasn t sure what price series to use so i checked with fred graph 3 compares their real disposable personal income blue to disposable personal income divided by the deflator red and by the consumer price index green adjusted to the 2005 base year that the other lines use the deflator gives a better match i ll use that i went to fred and gathered up a bunch of data uploaded it to google docs and combined it into a new workbook the first time through i gathered quarterly data fred s default but when i plugged my adjustment formula into the spreadsheet i ended up with one number every four rows and n a errors between because i had only one starting value transferred over from the unadjusted debt column to make matters worse when i graphed it the line with the n a errors didn t show up all in fun anyway when i regathered data for the art2 adjustment i got annual data i used art2 on the debt the method is as follows 1 adjust the first debt value to the base year then for each subsequent year 2 carry forward the previous year s adjusted value and add to it the new debt after adjusting for inflation to the base year see the may 9 post for details for inflation adjustment of disposable personal income a flow i used the standard surreal calculation refer to the may 8 post for more because i am using two different inflation adjustment calculations the adjustment is not lost when i divide the adjusted debt value by the adjusted income number here is a peek at the spreadsheet here s how my graph turned out graph 4 the erosion of debt is shown in pink the blue line shows debt relative to income in current dollars like graph 2 above the red line shows debt relative to income in dollars of constant purchasing power 2011 dollars the pink area above the blue line shows the purchasing power eroded by inflation note that the most rapid erosion occurred during the great inflation of 1965 1984 let s make it twenty years 1965 1985 that s the period where the unadjusted blue line shows no increase in debt or what people think of as no increase in debt because the blue line runs flat for those years for the record the gdp deflator base year 2005 for 1965 has the value 19 934 and for 1985 has the value 61 624 in other words prices more than tripled during that twenty year period that s what it took to erode enough debt to keep the blue line flat link the google docs spreadsheet for this post posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments labels 6 debt and inflation sunday may 13 2012 raghuram rajan true lessons of the recession modeled behavior links to raghuram rajan s the true lessons of the recession 12 page pdf rajan s opening surprised me according to the conventional interpretation of the global economic recession growth has ground to a halt in the west because demand has collapsed a casualty of t...
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